[Throwback]

I have been doing a lot of thinking about what the Bills may do in Round 1. There has been plenty of speculation here at TBD and I have found a few common ideas that are plausible and have given them a percentage chance of them happening.

70% - Bills draft a LT (Bulaga, Williams, etc.)

15% - Bills draft Jimmy Clausen.

10% - Bills trade down to pick up an extra pick in the 2nd or 3rd round.

5% - Bills take a reach/non-priority player (i.e. Dan Williams, Tim Tebow or C.J. Spillings)

This is just my opinion on what goes down with pick #9. I think Nix is smart enough to know we need a LT, but I think he could still go for a QB like Clausen or even trade down. Not forgetting history, I felt compelled to throw in the 'we make a stupid pick' option.

Have I got my numbers all wrong? Comments? Questions? I'm open for some discussion.

[Bill from NYC]

I think there is a place for McClain in this equation.

Hey, you asked. :devil:

[Throwback]

Bill from NYC, on Mar 11 2010, 05:33 PM, said:

I think there is a place for McClain in this equation.

Hey, you asked. :devil:

That is true. I've always liked McClain, but I don't see the Bills taking a LB in the first round. If the QBs and LTs they like are gone, I'd bet they trade down, but that's my opinion.

For the record, I wouldn't be totally upset if they did draft him though. A little yes, totally? No.

[earthtobrint]

I don't think Dan Williams is as big a reach as you indicate. He won't get past Miami at #12. If three offensive tackles are selected before #9, Dan Williams may be our pick. But I agree that the most likely selection is an offensive tackle. It depends on how Nix has the third, fourth, and fifth offensive tackles on the board rated because I'm sure at least two of them will be taken before we get our choice.

[Throwback]

earthtobrint, on Mar 11 2010, 05:39 PM, said:

I don't think Dan Williams is as big a reach as you indicate. He won't get past Miami at #12. If three offensive tackles are selected before #9, Dan Williams may be our pick. But I agree, the most likely selection is an offensive tackle. It depends on how Nix has the third, fourth, and fifth offensive tackles on the board rated because I'm sure at least two of them will be taken before we get our choice.

I don't disagree that Dan Williams is a first round pick, but he could go even further than Miami at #12, IMO.

And good point on how Nix has the tackles rated, I think that will be the biggest influence on what we do at #9.

[gobilz]

punt

[Bill from NYC]

Throwback, on Mar 11 2010, 05:38 PM, said:

That is true. I've always liked McClain, but I don't see the Bills taking a LB in the first round. If the QBs and LTs they like are gone, I'd bet they trade down, but that's my opinion.

For the record, I wouldn't be totally upset if they did draft him though. A little yes, totally? No.

I have been complaining about the Bills OL for more than a decade. It has been and continues to be their worst shortcoming. For this reason, you will hear no complaints from me if they grab Bulaga, even though I see him as a right tackle.

I view McClain as a potential superstar, so if they select him at #9 I will be thrilled, but I doubt he will be there when we select.

[SawchukBills]

Throwback, on Mar 11 2010, 01:25 PM, said:

I have been doing a lot of thinking about what the Bills may do in Round 1. There has been plenty of speculation here at TBD and I have found a few common ideas that are plausible and have given them a percentage chance of them happening.

70% - Bills draft a LT (Bulaga, Williams, etc.)

15% - Bills draft Jimmy Clausen.

10% - Bills trade down to pick up an extra pick in the 2nd or 3rd round.

5% - Bills take a reach/non-priority player (i.e. Dan Williams, Tim Tebow or C.J. Spillings)

This is just my opinion on what goes down with pick #9. I think Nix is smart enough to know we need a LT, but I think he could still go for a QB like Clausen or even trade down. Not forgetting history, I felt compelled to throw in the 'we make a stupid pick' option.

Have I got my numbers all wrong? Comments? Questions? I'm open for some discussion.

You need to show your work...or did you make these numbers out???

[Russ 'Em]

With Buddy's recent trip to O St. he could be looking to trade up and get Russell Okung as our day 1 starting LT.

[Max997]

DT isnt a priority position?

I want a LT first but I wouldnt have a problem with Dan Williams

[Red]

Throwback, on Mar 11 2010, 05:25 PM, said:

I have been doing a lot of thinking about what the Bills may do in Round 1. There has been plenty of speculation here at TBD and I have found a few common ideas that are plausible and have given them a percentage chance of them happening.

70% - Bills draft a LT (Bulaga, Williams, etc.)

15% - Bills draft Jimmy Clausen.

10% - Bills trade down to pick up an extra pick in the 2nd or 3rd round.

5% - Bills take a reach/non-priority player (i.e. Dan Williams, Tim Tebow or C.J. Spillings)

This is just my opinion on what goes down with pick #9. I think Nix is smart enough to know we need a LT, but I think he could still go for a QB like Clausen or even trade down. Not forgetting history, I felt compelled to throw in the 'we make a stupid pick' option.

Have I got my numbers all wrong? Comments? Questions? I'm open for some discussion.

I'll take.

I agree with your percentages, and think that drafting beef early and often is the smartest thing to do at this point. Tebow fans see him now in the 3rd round, and I think that is accurate. This would allow us to take a LT with our 1st, and maybe a big NT with our second.

I feel better with Nix and Whaley running the show, but Modrak is still the VP of scouting, and his glorious tenure has graced us with such gems as Mike Williams, Donte Whitner, and James Hardy.

[Throwback]

SawchukBills, on Mar 11 2010, 07:12 PM, said:

You need to show your work...or did you make these numbers out???

As I prefaced, these are just numbers I came up with. No formulas or equations, just my thoughts.

Max997, on Mar 11 2010, 07:53 PM, said:

DT isnt a priority position?

I want a LT first but I wouldnt have a problem with Dan Williams

I didn't say DT wasn't a priority, I meant D. Williams as a bit of a reach player. I know we need a DT but I would prefer grabbing one in the 2nd, but thats just me.

[SouthGeorgiaBillsFan]

Considering the Bills obviously don't place a great deal of value on offensive tackles, I'd say there is about a 70% chance we draft a QB in the first round. I'd say that's about a 50% chance we trade down and draft Tebow later in the first. But then again we are just pulling numbers out of our asses here so who cares?

[Throwback]

Sorry, I didn't know that speculating is taboo here. :devil:

[Steely Dan]

This is what I'd like to see, not what I think they'll do. Trade back with the Bronco's and pick up a fourth rounder. Then take Dan Williams.

I would absolutely HATE to see Miami walk away from day one with Williams!! :devil:

[Throwback]

Rfeynman, on Mar 11 2010, 09:13 PM, said:

This is what I'd like to see, not what I think they'll do. Trade back with the Bronco's and pick up a fourth rounder. Then take Dan Williams.

I would absolutely HATE to see Miami walk away from day one with Williams!! :devil:

That's a good scenario as well. And I agree, I would hate it if Miami grabbed Williams, whether or not they do, no one knows.

[Mr. Fancy Pants]

Bill from NYC, on Mar 11 2010, 05:33 PM, said:

I think there is a place for McClain in this equation.

Hey, you asked. :devil:

Amen, Crohn's or not, we really need a dominant LB. He'd be nice if we dropped down a bit and picked up an additional 2nd or 3rd.

[Doc]

earthtobrint, on Mar 11 2010, 05:39 PM, said:

I don't think Dan Williams is as big a reach as you indicate. He won't get past Miami at #12. If three offensive tackles are selected before #9, Dan Williams may be our pick. But I agree that the most likely selection is an offensive tackle. It depends on how Nix has the third, fourth, and fifth offensive tackles on the board rated because I'm sure at least two of them will be taken before we get our choice.

As much as I'd like to see a guy like Williams, I think the Bills can get a NT type in round 2 or 2 (Cam Thomas or Linval Joseph) easier than a LT prospect.

[BuffaloBillCowher]

Russ'Em, on Mar 11 2010, 07:49 PM, said:

With Buddy's recent trip to O St. he could be looking to trade up and get Russell Okung as our day 1 starting LT.

They do have other prospects than Okung.

[bkc]

Bill from NYC, on Mar 11 2010, 06:44 PM, said:

I have been complaining about the Bills OL for more than a decade. It has been and continues to be their worst shortcoming. For this reason, you will hear no complaints from me if they grab Bulaga, even though I see him as a right tackle.

I view McClain as a potential superstar, so if they select him at #9 I will be thrilled, but I doubt he will be there when we select.

he will there . How many inside linebackers have been taken in the top ten in the last ten years . That said we can't take an inside linebacker unless both qb's and dan williams or any tackle we like are off the board