51 replies to this topic

[section122]

San Jose Bills Fan, on 07 March 2012 - 09:02 AM, said:

A lot of people here have paraphrased Nix as being wary of one-year wonders, which is true.

However he also said that when a player is a one-year wonder you have to carefully examine the reasons why.

In Mercilus' case one could theorize that somewhere between last season and the year before:

1) Something just clicked… the game "slowed down for him" or any of these things that happen in sports where a player develops past the threshhold and raises his game to another level.

2) He caught up to his body… in the offseason between 2010-11 we're talking about a guy who was 19 years old!

That's as much a kid as a man and it's totally plausible that he hadn't grown into his body yet.

3) Maybe it was mental maturity… the possibilities are many.

Point is, one would be a fool for dismissing Mercilus as a one-year wonder.

Yes it's a concern but as Nix said, it's just an opportunity to dig deeper and understand why that was the case, and if those reasons allay your fears.

Yeah Whaley had a quote along these lines as well.  I still think Dareus had a very limited body of work (really about 1.5 seasons) and they didn't shy away from him.  I just see a stud with this guy.  He did have a quote about the game slowing down for him this year and he was able to put it all together.  I just can't find a knock on him to push him out of my mind.  While digging for info I came across this too.
http://www.cbssports...archive/1689559
again info below is from link above

Mercilus decided to capitalize on his breakout campaign and enter the 2012 NFL Draft as an early entry. "I was just able to put everything together," said Mercilus. "It was just due to hard work, that's all I have to accredit it to. Can't say I'm surprised, but it happened. I made it happen."

Mercilus' startling 2011 season sent scouts scrambling to learn more about him, and the news was better than expected. After two mediocre seasons at Illinois, Mercilus used cat-like moves to become an All-American and win the Ted Hendricks Award as the best defensive end in the country. He led the nation with 16 sacks, nine forced fumbles and had 22.5 tackles for a loss. Scouts gush a list of positives traits, including quickness, agility, strength, instincts, condition, attitude ... and he is just beginning to mature and could be a great outside linebacker. Reaching for comparisons, they mention names like Simeon Rice, Dwight Freeney, Richard Dent, and even the great Reggie White.

rafter, on 07 March 2012 - 09:05 AM, said:

If the bills showed 'a lot of interest' then we probably wont be drafting him. Not at 10.
The bills seem to avoid who they are targeting on draft day, making them one of the hardest teams to decipher.
As always, our pick at 10 will probably be someone we weren't expecting.

I disagree I think they do telegraph and did so with Dareus and the Spiller pick.  I remember the Spiller pick as being one when the Bills came on the clock as anyone but Spiller bc I was sure that's who they were taking and not who I wanted.  I also remember the Dareus pick as one that we all thought would happen as long as he was there.  I also think the telegraphing is why most think (myself included) that Jonathan Martin will be the pick at 10 if he is there.  Hope I'm wrong though as I want Mercilus  

[swnybillsfan]

so this kid is an athletic freak with size, length, speed, strength and agility. he has good instincts and is and has multiple pass rush moves in the arsenal. he holds up well against the run. he has a tremendous work ethic is liked and respected by teammates and coaches? if this is the case and through due diligence nothing horrible is found i have two words...
yes please!

[section122]

swnybillsfan, on 07 March 2012 - 12:05 PM, said:

so this kid is an athletic freak with size, length, speed, strength and agility. he has good instincts and is and has multiple pass rush moves in the arsenal. he holds up well against the run. he has a tremendous work ethic is liked and respected by teammates and coaches? if this is the case and through due diligence nothing horrible is found i have two words...
yes please!

Exactly and believe me I have done my due dilligence.  I just want to know why people aren't higher on this kid.  He seems like the exact player we need!

Edited by section122, 07 March 2012 - 12:23 PM.

[swnybillsfan]

section122, on 07 March 2012 - 12:23 PM, said:

Exactly and believe me I have done my due dilligence.  I just want to know why people aren't higher on this kid.  He seems like the exact player we need!

it's gotta be from the lack of resume. a lot of people probably think the phrase "one year wonder" is synonimus with "bust". and rather than investing in potential, they want a quicker return on their investment. believe me, i agree with your line of thinking on this kid and i really think he would look great in red, white and blue. but i also think that there are about ten players that would be nice pickups for us.

[rafter]

section122, on 07 March 2012 - 09:37 AM, said:

I disagree I think they do telegraph and did so with Dareus and the Spiller pick.  I remember the Spiller pick as being one when the Bills came on the clock as anyone but Spiller bc I was sure that's who they were taking and not who I wanted.  I also remember the Dareus pick as one that we all thought would happen as long as he was there.  I also think the telegraphing is why most think (myself included) that Jonathan Martin will be the pick at 10 if he is there.  Hope I'm wrong though as I want Mercilus  

Fair points that the last 2 drafts were a bit easier to predict. Gailey was talking 'waterbug' before the draft so we had a inclination that spiller could be the pick. Last years was easy to figure because we picked at 3 instead of our usual 10 range. We knew Newton was going #1, so that left the most likely two targets to be Miller or Dareus.
This year while we have an obvious need at end rusher, it seems nix has downplayed their value high in the draft. I would say the Mercilus talk is more for the hope that he'd slip to r2 than considering him @ 10.

[John from Hemet]

Only in a trade down please

[section122]

rafter, on 07 March 2012 - 12:44 PM, said:

Fair points that the last 2 drafts were a bit easier to predict. Gailey was talking 'waterbug' before the draft so we had a inclination that spiller could be the pick. Last years was easy to figure because we picked at 3 instead of our usual 10 range. We knew Newton was going #1, so that left the most likely two targets to be Miller or Dareus.
This year while we have an obvious need at end rusher, it seems nix has downplayed their value high in the draft. I would say the Mercilus talk is more for the hope that he'd slip to r2 than considering him @ 10.

I don't think he will last that long but stranger things have happened.  Maybe i'll find him and help him fail a drug test   .  I will say though that I agree 10 is much harder to predict.  I have a sneaking suspicion if they stay there (smart money says they will) Floyd or Martin will be the pick.  FA has a lot to say about how this draft will shake out.

I still haven't got a clue why he is rated so low though.  Is it truly the 1 year wonder?  Surely some on this board are dissuaded by that but what about the talent evaluators?  I saw that he was given a 3rd round grade by the draft advisory board and have no idea how that happened.  After his combine and pro day that went so well I know he is not near there now but I still wonder why he was there ever.  I do remember Phillip Rivers being given a 3rd round grade as well and he ended up going 4th overall.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

section122, on 07 March 2012 - 12:53 PM, said:

I saw that he was given a 3rd round grade by the draft advisory board and have no idea how that happened.  After his combine and pro day that went so well I know he is not near there now but I still wonder why he was there ever.  I do remember Phillip Rivers being given a 3rd round grade as well and he ended up going 4th overall.

More on the draft advisory board:

http://en.wikipedia...._Advisory_Board

http://www.ajc.com/s...ntlid=inform_sr

While they're not always accurate, the board is comprised of some of the NFL's GMs and Personnel Directors as well as scouts from Blesto and The National scouting combines.

[BobChalmers]

SelmonSmith6378, on 25 February 2012 - 09:22 PM, said:

I still want upshaw.

After watching him at the combine I have no clue what NFL position Upshaw is qualified for.

He looked slow, small, and lacked agility.  Other than that a stud athlete...  

Obviously it wasn't just me - Mayock and friends on NFLN rated Upshaw as the biggest disappointment at Indianapolis.

Edited by BobChalmers, 07 March 2012 - 09:09 PM.

[section122]

San Jose Bills Fan, on 07 March 2012 - 08:32 PM, said:

More on the draft advisory board:

http://en.wikipedia...._Advisory_Board

http://www.ajc.com/s...ntlid=inform_sr

While they're not always accurate, the board is comprised of some of the NFL's GMs and Personnel Directors as well as scouts from Blesto and The National scouting combines.

Reading this link got me to thinking about how varied some teams boards are.  I know it would be impossible to do but I would love to see each teams board after the draft just to see how wide the opinions are on players.  All it takes is one team to value a player in a spot and take him but that doesn't mean that is what the consesus was.  I would love to sit in a war room on draft day.  
All that said I wonder why they had Mercilus as a 3rd rnd grade.  I've tried to find knocks on him but other than him only being a 1 year wonder I can't.

BobChalmers, on 07 March 2012 - 09:08 PM, said:

After watching him at the combine I have no clue what NFL position Upshaw is qualified for.

He looked slow, small, and lacked agility.  Other than that a stud athlete...  

Obviously it wasn't just me - Mayock and friends on NFLN rated Upshaw as the biggest disappointment at Indianapolis.

yeah Upshaw is looking to be this years Nick Fairley.  Slotted high early then the underpants Olympics damaging his stock.  I think if he is there though he won't fall past the Jets at 16.

[Cash]

San Jose Bills Fan, on 07 March 2012 - 09:02 AM, said:

A lot of people here have paraphrased Nix as being wary of one-year wonders, which is true.

However he also said that when a player is a one-year wonder you have to carefully examine the reasons why.

In Mercilus' case one could theorize that somewhere between last season and the year before:

1) Something just clicked… the game "slowed down for him" or any of these things that happen in sports where a player develops past the threshhold and raises his game to another level.

2) He caught up to his body… in the offseason between 2010-11 we're talking about a guy who was 19 years old!

That's as much a kid as a man and it's totally plausible that he hadn't grown into his body yet.

3) Maybe it was mental maturity… the possibilities are many.

Point is, one would be a fool for dismissing Mercilus as a one-year wonder.

Yes it's a concern but as Nix said, it's just an opportunity to dig deeper and understand why that was the case, and if those reasons allay your fears.

I like where your head's at.  Mercilus is very intriguing, especially since he and Coples are probably the only high-rated DE prospects with prototypical measurables

http://footballsfutu...combine/de.html

Mercilus measured in at 6'3 5/8", 261 lbs., with 33 7/8" arms.  Hands maybe a little small at 9.5".  Everyone else mentioned at the top of the draft, except Coples, is either too short, has too short arms (even Coples' are shorter than you'd like), or doesn't have the college resume to justify a 1st-round pick.  And Mercilus tested athletically a lot better than Coples.

For comparison's sake, here's JPP's combine measurements (also taken from footballsfuture): 6'4 3/4", 270 lbs., 34 3/4" arms, 10 3/8" hands.  Beastly.  But also a one-year wonder in a weak conference.

Unfortunately, it doesn't look like there'll be a low-risk, high-upside prospect available at #10 this year.  There should be some low-risk, low-upside guys and some high-risk, high-upside guys.  Will the Bills swing for the fences or bunt the runner over?

Edited by Cash, 08 March 2012 - 09:55 AM.

[section122]

John from Hemet, on 07 March 2012 - 12:47 PM, said:

Only in a trade down please

why?  I'm keeping this thread going because I really would like to find out why people aren't higher on this kid.  I just don't see any issues with him; size, speed, consistent production against elite competition, he looks like the real deal to me.

[Dorkington]

I'd like to draft this guy, or whomever the top pass rushing DE is that has good size/strength.

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