15 replies to this topic

[jboyst62]

So hopefully the question makes sense.  It is something I have kicked around in my head a few times this off season and as a result wonder how it will impact our record.

Will CJ's running ability carry us farther then him catching?  Are his pass catching abilities more valuable then his running abilities?  With FJ fully heathly these questions are pretty tough for me...



My verdict:
CJ's pass catching ability in 2012 will be more important due to his ability to beat coverages and create seperation + YAC.  His ability to create potential on any passing play is greater then with any of our WR's.  I have to value his running and figure he'll take 3 or more to the house this year.  I believe he will still catch 40% of his possessions, run 60%.  I will even go so far to say he will have 800 or more yards rushing, 500 yards catching.

[Teen Insight]

40% rushing, 60% passing. I tend to believe that Freddy will get more runs and screens that are thrown backwards.

[jeremy2020]

He will touch it lovingly and caress it gently.

[Dorkington]

Unfortunately, I'm not sure how exactly he'll use both FJ and CJ at the same time effectively, so I wouldn't be surprised if we see another season with FJ getting most of the RB looks and Spiller being used here and there.

[BRAWNDO]

I was going to say with his hands hopefully.  I think it will be an equal share of passes and runs.

[biglukes]

BRAWNDO, on 17 July 2012 - 03:26 PM, said:

I was going to say with his hands hopefully.  I think it will be an equal share of passes and runs.

You beat me to the "with his hands" answer".

[uncle flap]

I initially thought 70/30 but then I was thinking we could see Spiller used in more of  Sproles-type role which is about 50/50.

That's of course assuming Fred is healthy and continues on about a 80/20 as he was last year.

[K-9]

50% running, 50% receiving, and 50% on returns.

GO BILLS!!!

[Graybeard]

Dorkington, on 17 July 2012 - 03:19 PM, said:

Unfortunately, I'm not sure how exactly he'll use both FJ and CJ at the same time effectively, so I wouldn't be surprised if we see another season with FJ getting most of the RB looks and Spiller being used here and there.

+1 (Unfortunately)

[aussiebills]

I think the most important part will be getting both FJ and CJ on the field at the same time. Both have showed that they can play the slot (FJ: that big catch and run against the Pats/CJ: played numerous times in the slot when we were decimated by injuries). If this means that we have sacrifice some of Freddie's rushing yards just to get CJ some touches then im fine with that. These two can practically carry this Offence if both are clicking on all cylinders. The better these two run, the easier it will be for the passing game to get going.

[jboyst62]

aussiebills, on 19 July 2012 - 05:18 AM, said:

I think the most important part will be getting both FJ and CJ on the field at the same time. Both have showed that they can play the slot (FJ: that big catch and run against the Pats/CJ: played numerous times in the slot when we were decimated by injuries). If this means that we have sacrifice some of Freddie's rushing yards just to get CJ some touches then im fine with that. These two can practically carry this Offence if both are clicking on all cylinders. The better these two run, the easier it will be for the passing game to get going.

Good points.
So what do you figure CJ will get?  20 possessions a game? 25? 30?

[uncle flap]

jboyst62, on 19 July 2012 - 05:44 AM, said:

Good points.
So what do you figure CJ will get?  20 possessions a game? 25? 30?

I see approximately (depending on matchups/game situations)

CJ- 5 rushes, 5 catches

FJ - 15 rushes, 3 catches

Fitz- 20ish for 30ish passing

and 3-5 Wildcat plays

Obviously, if when they are winning in the latter stages of games, they will be running the ball more and passing less, so perhaps 20ish total carries is a little low.

I think what many are forgetting is that even if CJ and Fred are on the field at the same time frequently, they both won't get the ball on the same play. Like Chan said, no one is going to happy with their touches until the wins are tallied up.

[CodeMonkey]

I don't care what the percentages are.  I just want Spiller to be improved enough and effective enough, finally, so that Gailey will let him touch the ball more than to just give FredEx a breather.

[muffmonster]

CodeMonkey, on 19 July 2012 - 09:13 AM, said:

I don't care what the percentages are.  I just want Spiller to be improved enough and effective enough, finally, so that Gailey will let him touch the ball more than to just give FredEx a breather.

Didn't we see that once FredEx went down last year?  I thought Spiller looked pretty good.  Obviously Fred is the number one guy, but I felt that Spiller showed he can be an effective weapon when given the ball and it would be a waste if we do not utilize him.

Jackson had a 5.5 yards per carry average and Spiller was 5.2.

[CodeMonkey]

muffmonster, on 19 July 2012 - 09:29 AM, said:

Didn't we see that once FredEx went down last year?  I thought Spiller looked pretty good.  Obviously Fred is the number one guy, but I felt that Spiller showed he can be an effective weapon when given the ball and it would be a waste if we do not utilize him.

Jackson had a 5.5 yards per carry average and Spiller was 5.2.

Spiller, in 16 games, had 107 running touches and had an average of 5.2 YPC.
FredEx, in 10 games, had 170 running touches and had an average of 5.5 YPC.

When Jackson was in the game, he was expected to run and defenses keyed on him.  With Spiller in the game the emphasis was on passing, so defenses were not keying on him at all.  Much easier to get a higher YPC under those circumstances.

Spiller did look better as the season progressed, but he still tried to dart to the sideline at the first sign of resistance far too often.  That is why my hope is that he will be able to be an effective weapon this season.  He showed enough last season to give some hope of that.  But by no means, in my opinion anyway, did he show that he for sure could be effective running the ball on a regular basis.

[hondo in seattle]

I think Chan will use Freddy on some series and CJ on others.  Down-and-distance may also dictate a change.  I think Chan likes that opponents will have to defend these backs differently.  There backs are not clones of each other and last year we saw the play-calling changed when  CJ was in the game.  

Preparing for the Bills, opposing DC's will have to breakdown what the Bills tend to do when CJ is in the game versus Freddy.  In other words, they'll spend less time focusing just on what FredEx likes to do or what plays we like to run with him.  Defensive players will have to keep track who's in the backfield.  The more weapons we force the opponent to prepare for, the less effectively he can prepare for any one of them.  The more confusion and uncertainty we create, the more likely we are to gain positive yards.

For all these reasons, I really see Chan using a lot more of CJ than we saw at the beginning of last year.

Yet, after all that, I still think he'll give FredEx more carries to allow him to establish a rhythm.