50 replies to this topic

[cmjoyce113]

While I personally know you can't just judge a players success on their sack number lets looks at that for his year by year for his career.

2006 - He had 4.5 sacks his rookie season and they all came in a 5 game stretch. Where he has 1.5, 0, 1,1,1.
2007- He had 14 sacks. 8 of his sack came in 3 games. He season split looks like this: 2,0,0,0,1,0,0,1,0,1,1,2.5,1,3.5,1, 0
2008- He had 12 sacks. He had 3 - 2 sack games and 1 3 sack game. Here's his season: 2,0,0,2,2,0,1,1,0,0,0,3,0,0,0,1
2009- He had 9 sacks - 1 - 2 sack game: 0,1,0,1,0,0,1,0,1,0,1,1,2,0,0,1
2010- 8.5 sacks with a 3 sack game and 2 sack game. 1,3,0,1,0,0,0,.5,0,2,1,0,0 (played in 13 games)
2011 - 5 sacks in 5 games he played in before injury...he had 2 - 2 sack games: 2,0,0,2,1
2012- Through 4 games he has 1.5 sacks that came in 1 game.

So if we are ONLY looking at SACK numbers Mario Williams has 54.5 career sacks. He has played in 86 games by my count. Out of those games he has had sacks in only 38 of them. That is 44%.

35.5 of those sacks have come in just 14 games. That leaves 19 sacks in the other 72 games he has played in.

If we are judging only sack numbers because that's all the time I have to do you can see Mario is a VERY streaky player. If we looked at this ahead of time we would have known this, but I am sure most didn't realize just how streaky his sacks are.

I am not defending him, or saying he sucks, just simply looking at his career stats.

I can draw this conclusion: Mario will have 2 or 3 more multi sack games this year and finish with around 10 sacks. That will leave 12 games where he has no sacks or 1 sack.

[BillsFanM.D.]

Right now he seems to be playing as if he has no 'sack.'  

I'm still glad we signed him though and it's way too early to judge.  Your analysis is interesting.  Here's hoping he can be a bit more 'consistent.'

[swnybillsfan]

i think that the good people at one bills drive knew all about this and thought of it as a good thing. hear me out on this. what if in those games that he has one or no sacks, mario is playing solid but not spectacular football, and then in a handful of games each year he is a completely disruptive force, wreaking havok and forcing bad things to happen for the opposition. i know that in a perfect world it would all be steady and consistant, but i guess i'll just sit back and wait for the bunches.

[C.Biscuit97]

I believe coming into the season, he was 3rd in the league in sacks/ game.  He also was supposed to be pretty stout against the run.  And not a guy who needs the rah rah BS, but it would be nice to see a little more fire in Mario.  A guy who is built like that with his physical tools should never be able to be blocked one on one.

[taC giB ehT]

So what?

[RkFast]

cmjoyce113, on 03 October 2012 - 07:39 AM, said:

While I personally know you can't just judge a players success on their sack number lets looks at that for his year by year for his career.

2006 - He had 4.5 sacks his rookie season and they all came in a 5 game stretch. Where he has 1.5, 0, 1,1,1.
2007- He had 14 sacks. 8 of his sack came in 3 games. He season split looks like this: 2,0,0,0,1,0,0,1,0,1,1,2.5,1,3.5,1, 0
2008- He had 12 sacks. He had 3 - 2 sack games and 1 3 sack game. Here's his season: 2,0,0,2,2,0,1,1,0,0,0,3,0,0,0,1
2009- He had 9 sacks - 1 - 2 sack game: 0,1,0,1,0,0,1,0,1,0,1,1,2,0,0,1
2010- 8.5 sacks with a 3 sack game and 2 sack game. 1,3,0,1,0,0,0,.5,0,2,1,0,0 (played in 13 games)
2011 - 5 sacks in 5 games he played in before injury...he had 2 - 2 sack games: 2,0,0,2,1
2012- Through 4 games he has 1.5 sacks that came in 1 game.

So if we are ONLY looking at SACK numbers Mario Williams has 54.5 career sacks. He has played in 86 games by my count. Out of those games he has had sacks in only 38 of them. That is 44%.

35.5 of those sacks have come in just 14 games. That leaves 19 sacks in the other 72 games he has played in.

If we are judging only sack numbers because that's all the time I have to do you can see Mario is a VERY streaky player. If we looked at this ahead of time we would have known this, but I am sure most didn't realize just how streaky his sacks are.

I am not defending him, or saying he sucks, just simply looking at his career stats.

I can draw this conclusion: Mario will have 2 or 3 more multi sack games this year and finish with around 10 sacks. That will leave 12 games where he has no sacks or 1 sack.

This is akin to looking at a baseball hitter and just looking at doubles. Or a pitcher and just looking at strikeouts. Doenst give even HALF of the picture of what the player's true performace is.

One thing in my dumb head Ive noticed, as CB has pointed out above is that he seems to be handled quite well with just the single-team. Kind of surprised by that. I didnt expect a Bruce Smith three on one and still get through type of deal, but I expected to see...I dunno....more "attention" paid to Williams by opposing OLs.

And one more thing.....in LOTS of sports, it always seems it takes the flashy new free agent a good amount of time to get acclimated, comfortable and produce. How many of US start new jobs, even if fields we are well-versed and just start producing big right off the bat? Not many. I still think Williams is in that awkward stage with his new club.

Edited by RkFast, 03 October 2012 - 08:23 AM.

[Mr. WEO]

BillsFanM.D., on 03 October 2012 - 07:43 AM, said:

Right now he seems to be playing as if he has no 'sack.'  

I'm still glad we signed him though and it's way too early to judge.  Your analysis is interesting.  Here's hoping he can be a bit more 'consistent.'

Come on--he got credit for half a sack.....

[BuffaloBillsMagic1]

I hope his total tackles improve over what we have seen so far as that concerns me.

[mrags]

It's the defensive scheme and D cord. I have very little faith in this defensive coaching staff and thier philosiphies.

[kobe808lak]

The main goal for the coaches should be to put him in a position/scheme to be successful.  

That said, he got singled up on what 99% of the snaps vs NE and didn't beat his man once... that isn't coaching that is getting your a$$ handed to you.  Same thing vs the Jets for the most part.  

The guy can't beat 1 on 1 coverage.  I think he goes out there just to collect a pay check nothing more.

[DaGimp]

the guy is the black Schobel...he shows up for meaningless games and piles up sacks when it matters least

[Keukasmallies]

The best predictor of tomorrow is yesterday....

[Coach Tuesday]

The Patriots were not in 2nd or 3rd and long very often, mainly because they were running for 8 yards a clip on first down (or throwing quick 6-yard hitches).  Tough to be a successful passrusher on 3rd and 3.

[CountDorkula]

According to Jeff Russo Mario has been battling a sprained wrist.

He's still bad right?

[kidprison]

C.Biscuit97, on 03 October 2012 - 08:17 AM, said:

I believe coming into the season, he was 3rd in the league in sacks/ game.  He also was supposed to be pretty stout against the run.  And not a guy who needs the rah rah BS, but it would be nice to see a little more fire in Mario.  A guy who is built like that with his physical tools should never be able to be blocked one on one.

Did I hear MW was blocked 1-1, sixty-five out of sixty-nine times by the pats?

[Charles Romes]

I like the 2,5,1,3,5 stretch in 07.

[CountDorkula]

kidprison, on 03 October 2012 - 10:49 AM, said:

Did I hear MW was blocked 1-1, sixty-five out of sixty-nine times by the pats?

Again reports are coming out that he had a sprained wrist. Kind of sheads a little light on this situation, no?

[Best Player Available]

CountDorkula, on 03 October 2012 - 11:06 AM, said:

Again reports are coming out that he had a sprained wrist. Kind of sheads a little light on this situation, no?

Link?

[BiggieScooby]

And to correlate my stats I posted on Tom Brady comparing his numbers on grass & on artificial turf. Mario has played on turf 18 games and has recorded sacks in 5 of those games. He had 4 1 sack games, and 1 2 sack game. I understand road games are typically tougher and since Mario played on grass at home he technically has played only 2 home games on grass. Not surprisingly though he has 0 sacks in 2 career home games. Mario has played 1 game on grass as a Bill. The result? In Cleveland Mario registered 1.5 sacks.

On grass Mario has 48.5 sacks in 63 career games.

I made the argument that Brady is worse on grass. Judging these numbers it is clear that Mario is better on grass. Maybe Russ Brandon & Co. at 1 Bills Drive should switch to grass.

[taC giB ehT]

Best Player Available, on 03 October 2012 - 11:10 AM, said:

Link?

He's been wearing a giant cast on his hand through the first four games...

It may not be a "sprained wrist" but it's something.