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Interesting Fitz Stat

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#1 Billsrhody

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Posted 12 October 2012 - 09:26 AM

I did a little research to try and find out if there were any factors that determined a bills win or loss besides the obvious ones like turnovers, time of possession, etc. I found something pretty interesting.

Since 2010, in games where Ryan Fitzpatrick has more than 30 attempts, the Bills are 4-21.

In that same time frame, when Fitzpatrick attempts fewer than 30 passes, the Bills are 8-4.

I know there are some other factors that probably play into that, for instance the defensive performance. But it cant be a coincidence that when our biggest offensive liability has fewer touches, we win more games.

With that said, I would love to see the Bills commit to the run in Arizona. Don't be afraid to just line up and run the ball 40-50 times a game. If we do that, Fred and CJ are bound to break off some runs and we are going to wear down their defense and control the clock. We have the horses to do it, why don't we?

#2 Ryan L Billz

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Posted 12 October 2012 - 09:28 AM

Since 2010, in games where Ryan Fitzpatrick has more than 30 attempts, the Bills are 4-21

bench him asap! these stats are just too ridiculous.................... :thumbdown:  to this whole organization for being such a terrible judge of talent.

#3 mitchmurraydowntown

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Posted 12 October 2012 - 09:39 AM

If Fitz is on the field, we lose most of the time. You can cut that anyway you want.

#4 2003Contenders

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Posted 12 October 2012 - 09:52 AM

I think what this reveals is that, when placed in the right situation, where the defense is holding up its end of the bargain and the running game is working effectively, Fitz can play well enough for the Bills to win. That is to say that he is a decent enough QB to orchestrate a Marty Ball style offense, but he is never going to be an elite (or even above average) QB who can pass his way to victory when the chips are down a la Brady, the Mannings, Roethlisberger, Brees, Rodgers -- or even the likes of Romo or Rivers.

The problem is:

1. Chan does not seem to relaize this and is unwilling to play Marty Ball, even though the team is actually pretty well set up to run such an offense.

2. This is further compunded by, even in the passing game, Chan does not routinely devise a scheme which suits Fitz's strengths. Where Fitz is effective is in making pre-snap reads and getting rid of the ball quickly. He simply is not good at throwing those deep sideline patterns. We all see that. Chan has to see it too, right?

3. The defense is NOT holding up its end of the bargain. The Bills get behind -- and then the offense goes into panic mode. And wa-la!

#5 fan_in_tx

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Posted 12 October 2012 - 10:05 AM

View PostBillsrhody, on 12 October 2012 - 09:26 AM, said:

I did a little research to try and find out if there were any factors that determined a bills win or loss besides the obvious ones like turnovers, time of possession, etc. I found something pretty interesting.

Since 2010, in games where Ryan Fitzpatrick has more than 30 attempts, the Bills are 4-21.

In that same time frame, when Fitzpatrick attempts fewer than 30 passes, the Bills are 8-4.

I know there are some other factors that probably play into that, for instance the defensive performance. But it cant be a coincidence that when our biggest offensive liability has fewer touches, we win more games.

With that said, I would love to see the Bills commit to the run in Arizona. Don't be afraid to just line up and run the ball 40-50 times a game. If we do that, Fred and CJ are bound to break off some runs and we are going to wear down their defense and control the clock. We have the horses to do it, why don't we?

Although I don't know if this is true, my thought is if you did this same analysis with QB's NFL wide you would see the same trend that Teams with QB's over 30 attempts a game tend to lose those games more than under 30 teams.  This is partially due to playing from behind teams tend to throw more.  I did look  at the this same trend many years ago comparing Flutie and Kelly and the same held true.. Both QB's with under 30 attempts won the majority of their games.

#6 Armchair GM

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Posted 12 October 2012 - 10:21 AM

View Postfan_in_tx, on 12 October 2012 - 10:05 AM, said:

Although I don't know if this is true, my thought is if you did this same analysis with QB's NFL wide you would see the same trend that Teams with QB's over 30 attempts a game tend to lose those games more than under 30 teams.  This is partially due to playing from behind teams tend to throw more.  I did look  at the this same trend many years ago comparing Flutie and Kelly and the same held true.. Both QB's with under 30 attempts won the majority of their games.

True, but I think this particular instance is a one off, an acception to the rule if you will. The basis, in Fitz's case, well the Bills' rather, it's a lack of commitment to the run. How many times do you see the bills empty out the backfield on 3 & 1, or first down for that matter. With the talent in our backfield, we should be running the ball, and running it again, and again until it fails. I'd rather see a 3 and out trying to pound it rather than emptying the backfield on 3rd & short and chucking it down the sideline...which is normally overthrown or intercepted.

#7 Billsrhody

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Posted 12 October 2012 - 12:09 PM

View Postfan_in_tx, on 12 October 2012 - 10:05 AM, said:

Although I don't know if this is true, my thought is if you did this same analysis with QB's NFL wide you would see the same trend that Teams with QB's over 30 attempts a game tend to lose those games more than under 30 teams.  This is partially due to playing from behind teams tend to throw more.  I did look  at the this same trend many years ago comparing Flutie and Kelly and the same held true.. Both QB's with under 30 attempts won the majority of their games.

This is certainly not true for the good QBs in the league.. Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Ryan almost always throw the ball more than 30 times a game and their teams almost always win.

For example, Brady (2011):

More than 30 attempts: 12-3
Less than 30 attempts: 1-0

My point is that we do not have a good quarterback, and therefore we need to run the ball more.

#8 KOKBILLS

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Posted 12 October 2012 - 12:28 PM

View Postmitchmurraydowntown, on 12 October 2012 - 09:39 AM, said:

If Fitz is on the field, we lose most of the time. You can cut that anyway you want.

Excellent simplification!!! :thumbsup:

#9 Why So Serious?

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Posted 12 October 2012 - 12:35 PM

Say what you want of Bellicheat but he does see defense trends in the league before anyone else.
In the early 2000s when defenses were stockpiled to Stop the run first then Stop the run second and thirdly stop the long ball he moved to the short pass wacky offense. The rest of the NFL slowly followed.
Now most NFL defenses are stockpiled to stop the pass and rush the QB and it appears he is moving to a more Rush friendly offense this year.

The Bills, late to the game on the Pass Wacky party, should be first in line to follow Bill and Harbaugh\West to a run first offense.

Alas they think they have a "Gunslinger" in Fitz so they miss the opportunity to capitalize on the pendulum shift.

#10 BigDaddy12

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Posted 12 October 2012 - 06:09 PM

Check out the Fitz-lovers... Fitz can be a decent QB in games played on the third Tuesday of the 5th month of the Mayan calendar if the RB's rush for 300+ yards and the defense holds opponents to less than 13 yards of total offense and forces 8 turnovers...

I admire your steadfast support of your guy, but its time to flush the Harvard turd.

#11 Buffalos#1Fan

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Posted 12 October 2012 - 06:21 PM

View PostBillsrhody, on 12 October 2012 - 09:26 AM, said:



Since 2010, in games where Ryan Fitzpatrick has more than 30 attempts, the Bills are 4-21.

In that same time frame, when Fitzpatrick attempts fewer than 30 passes, the Bills are 8-4.


This stat is flawed. Teams obviously have to pass more when they are behind and will generally run the ball more when they are ahead. So of course you are going to have a statistic that looks like this one.

#12 Hopeful

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Posted 12 October 2012 - 06:35 PM

View PostBillsrhody, on 12 October 2012 - 09:26 AM, said:

I did a little research to try and find out if there were any factors that determined a bills win or loss besides the obvious ones like turnovers, time of possession, etc. I found something pretty interesting.

Since 2010, in games where Ryan Fitzpatrick has more than 30 attempts, the Bills are 4-21.

In that same time frame, when Fitzpatrick attempts fewer than 30 passes, the Bills are 8-4.

I know there are some other factors that probably play into that, for instance the defensive performance. But it cant be a coincidence that when our biggest offensive liability has fewer touches, we win more games.

With that said, I would love to see the Bills commit to the run in Arizona. Don't be afraid to just line up and run the ball 40-50 times a game. If we do that, Fred and CJ are bound to break off some runs and we are going to wear down their defense and control the clock. We have the horses to do it, why don't we?

As Head made of Meat would say "link or it didn't happen" :rolleyes:

I saw that particular stat during the pre-season in a post by John Wawrow.  Another way to look at that stat is when the Bills are >55%- 62% pass, they lose.  When they are >38%-44% run, they win.

Let's put some context around this: Offensive series for a reasonable NFL team is 50-70 plays.  Let's say 60 plays.
So greater than 30 attempts is passing more than half the time.  Of the top-scoring offenses currently, the Texans and 49ers have a 45/55 pass/run split.  The Bears and (interestingly) NE are splitting about 50/50.  The Giants and Falcons are splitting 61/39 (and IIRC both have had come from behind games where they were passing for their lives)  In reality, the Bills are often running >60/<40 split because they often don't hit 60 plays per game.

IOW, if our best players (FJax/CJ) see the ball >25x a game, our odds are pretty good.  If they don't, either because of pass happy play-calling or because the Bills are way behind due to defensive "softness" and playing catch-up, we're in trouble.

This exemplifies the concept "correlation vs causation".   Wins vs # of passes are negatively correlated for the Bills.  What that info doesn't tell you is whether we're pass-happy because that's the game our coach prefers under the mistaken impression he has Brees, Rodgers, Manning, or Brady under center (and this causes the loss), or whether we're passing a lot because we're behind, and trying to catch up (thus is correlated to a loss, but is not the primary cause).

IMO one of the Bills biggest gaps is the lack of checks and balances from having Gailey be both HC and OC.  If he were OC and had a real HC, that guy would get in his grill and say "quit with the pass-o-matic, bub.  Run the Damn Ball!"

Edited by Hopeful, 12 October 2012 - 06:45 PM.


#13 Hopeful

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 08:14 AM

View PostBillsrhody, on 12 October 2012 - 12:09 PM, said:

This is certainly not true for the good QBs in the league.. Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Ryan almost always throw the ball more than 30 times a game and their teams almost always win.

For example, Brady (2011):

More than 30 attempts: 12-3
Less than 30 attempts: 1-0

My point is that we do not have a good quarterback, and therefore we need to run the ball more.

This is absolutely correct, BillsRhody  that  Brady*, Brees**, Ryan, Rodgers**, and Manning drive very efficient pass-centric offenses.  They are typically about 60% pass and they win when they pass a lot, because that's their bread and butter. They are also unquestionably elite QB.

I think a more interesting question is what do teams who have QB not named Brady, Brees, Ryan, Rodgers, and Manning do to win?

Right now the Bears, Texans, and 49ers are at the top of the league for both wins and near the top for points scored on offense (3rd, 4th, 5th behind NE and Giants).  All these teams run balanced attacks that are at least 50% run - the Texans and 49ers run more than they pass, 45% pass (and both made the playoffs last year and seem on track to do it again).

To your point:  I think a more realistic view is that a winning team can EITHER have a truly elite QB, OR a strong running game supported by a selective, high percentage pass game and a capable QB.  We all know that Fitz is not and will never be an elite QB in the same class with Brady, Brees, Rodgers.  The question is, could the Bills be a winning team with Fitz (or a similar QB) if they adopted an offensive strategy more similar to the Texans or 49ers than the Giants or NE?  This is a critical question because even when drafted high, capable QB are far more common than top-5 elite QB, and even today's elite QB had several years of growing before becoming elite.

Chan has the hosses for a power running game - the strong blocking TE, the Beast Fullback.  He unveiled it against KC.  Yet he seems strangely addicted to passing on 3 and 2.

*interestingly, NE is >50% run so far this year.

**It has to be noted that the pass-centric approach is not working so well for Brees/NO or Rodgers/GB this year

#14 silvermike

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 08:32 AM

If you've got more research in you, look only at first half passing. That should mute the effects of garbage time and comeback attempts.

#15 CHOICE SCREEN

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 08:51 AM

View PostBigDaddy12, on 12 October 2012 - 06:09 PM, said:

Check out the Fitz-lovers... Fitz can be a decent QB in games played on the third Tuesday of the 5th month of the Mayan calendar if the RB's rush for 300+ yards and the defense holds opponents to less than 13 yards of total offense and forces 8 turnovers...

I admire your steadfast support of your guy, but its time to flush the Harvard turd.

When we have someone else to flush him for.  We don't and save the tarvaris jackson nonsense  he'll never even remotely be an option.  We're stuck with Pickspatrick until we have a viable alternative

#16 JohnnyGold

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 09:00 AM

View PostCHOICE SCREEN, on 13 October 2012 - 08:51 AM, said:

When we have someone else to flush him for.  We don't and save the tarvaris jackson nonsense  he'll never even remotely be an option.  We're stuck with Pickspatrick until we have a viable alternative

this is currently whats driving me crazy as a bills fan.

the "well we KNOW thigpen and jackson arent the answer."

do we?

ive never seen them play for us in a regular season game...

i have seen fitz play for us for about 2 seasons of regular season games now, and were awful with him.  absolutely awful.

IF, last season, just one of those picks against new england hadnt happened in the first game, or our miracle against oakland handt happened, the calls for this guys head would be deafening.

he has done NOTHING to warrant this type of support - save for our "hot" (lucky) start last year.

the only thing is, now theres too much talent on this team to be happy with such a bad qb.

its time to turn the page.

guarantee thigpen would have had us in the jets game, and won us the new england game.

you cant turn the ball over and expect to win in the NFL.

the thing about fitz... the passes he has made... these are not amazing passes that are resulting from reading the defense and putting the ball where only his receivers can get it. he's just dinking and dunking, and occassionally spiller will bust one and boost fitzs stats through the roof.

my god, tavaris jackson could lead us to the super bowl with the talent we have.

the difference between tavaris jackson and fitz? tj can throw it further than my wife. :doh:

and this is coming from someone (me) whos favorite player on the bills since kelly has been fitzpatrick.

hes just useless now though, im over it, bye buddy, dont let the door hit you on the way out.

#17 Hazed and Amuzed

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 09:10 AM

View PostJohnnyGold, on 13 October 2012 - 09:00 AM, said:



this is currently whats driving me crazy as a bills fan.

the "well we KNOW thigpen and jackson arent the answer."

do we?

ive never seen them play for us in a regular season game...

i have seen fitz play for us for about 2 seasons of regular season games now, and were awful with him.  absolutely awful.

IF, last season, just one of those picks against new england hadnt happened in the first game, or our miracle against oakland handt happened, the calls for this guys head would be deafening.

he has done NOTHING to warrant this type of support - save for our "hot" (lucky) start last year.

the only thing is, now theres too much talent on this team to be happy with such a bad qb.

its time to turn the page.

guarantee thigpen would have had us in the jets game, and won us the new england game.

you cant turn the ball over and expect to win in the NFL.

the thing about fitz... the passes he has made... these are not amazing passes that are resulting from reading the defense and putting the ball where only his receivers can get it. he's just dinking and dunking, and occassionally spiller will bust one and boost fitzs stats through the roof.

my god, tavaris jackson could lead us to the super bowl with the talent we have.

the difference between tavaris jackson and fitz? tj can throw it further than my wife. :doh:

and this is coming from someone (me) whos favorite player on the bills since kelly has been fitzpatrick.

hes just useless now though, im over it, bye buddy, dont let the door hit you on the way out.

I've seen enough of Thigpen to KNOW he's not the answer

#18 CardinalScotts

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 10:14 AM

how many new posts are about Ftizpatrick...were giving up 50 a game and we focus on the QB. Sounds like a dad coached team focusing on the wrong things = they never get better. Fortunately we aren't coaching the team

#19 CardinalScotts

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 10:58 AM

View PostBillsrhody, on 12 October 2012 - 12:09 PM, said:

This is certainly not true for the good QBs in the league.. Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Ryan almost always throw the ball more than 30 times a game and their teams almost always win.

For example, Brady (2011):

More than 30 attempts: 12-3
Less than 30 attempts: 1-0

My point is that we do not have a good quarterback, and therefore we need to run the ball more.
nothing to do with Gronkowski Hernandez and Welker

#20 3rdand12

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Posted 13 October 2012 - 11:33 AM

we rushed 19 times last week. Hmmm...
get spiller and Jackson on the field now that they are both healthy again. running and catching.
Thats how we win when Fitzpatrick is in the mix.
I am sure Buddy and Chan can see that Ryan is very limited  by now





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