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For The Gamblers: Lock of the Week Houston -10

Houston -10

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#1 bruceisloose78

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 08:59 PM

Why I will be laying the rest of my money in my online gambling account on Houston -10 vs our beloved Bills on Sunday.

The Bills have had the most trouble with teams that run the ball well and play physical D (particularly the 3-4) with lots of blitz packages. Not only have we lost to these physical rushing teams, (Jets, 49ers) we have gotten crushed. Well it just so happens that the Bills are about to run into one of those teams and quite possibly the best team they will play all year. I am expecting a blowout.

Inside the Numbers

Bills Team Stats
Score For: 24.23 (12th)
Total Yards: 349 (19th)
Rush yds: 150.29 (4)
Pass Yds: 198.71 (29th)
Def
Avg Score Against: 32.43 (32)
Total Yards: 424.14 (31)
Rush Yds: 176.86 (32)
Pass Yards 198.71 (29)

Texans Team Stats
Score for: 30.86 (2)
Total Yards:371.43 (9)
Rush yds: 140.86 (6)
Pass yds: 230.57 (18)
Def
Avg score Against: 18.29 (6)
Total Yds: 283 (3)
Rush Yds: 83 (4)
Pass Yds: 230.57 (18th)

Rank   Rank
Buffalos Overall Scoring vs Houstons Overall D 24.43   (12) 18.29   (6)
Buffalos Road Passing vs Houstons Home D 164.25  (32) 203.75 (6)
Buffalos Road Rushing vs Houstons Home D 146.75  (5)   97 (13)
Houstons Overall Scoring vs Buffalos overall D  30.86   (2)   32.43 (32)
Houstons Home Passing vs Buffalos Road D 231.5   (17) 233.25  (15)
Houstons Home Rushing vs Buffalos Road D 122.25  (18)   161 (30)


All in all the Texans will be able to easily move the ball on a weak Bills D. They will be able to key in to stop our run game because of a weak road passing O. And They will be able to get to the passer with JJ Watt (against an injured Pears or his replacement Hairston) and blitzes.  The Bills have been terrible on the road under Gailey (3-7-1 ATS in the last 11 road games) and you can expect that trend to continue.  The Texans will be too much for the Bills to handle. My prediction: Final Score 38-13 Houston. You can count on the Texans -10 this Sunday.

Go Bills and I love this board.

#2 BLZFAN4LIFE

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 09:06 PM

I agree. This game has the same feel as when we went into Frisco. We know how that turned out. Texans will roll.

#3 uncle flap

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 09:20 PM

I think the over at 47.5 is a pretty safe bet on this one, safer than Houston covering.

I don't bet too often, and never against the Bills, but I'm always really wary of multiple score spreads.

#4 plenzmd1

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 09:58 PM

View Postbruceisloose78, on 01 November 2012 - 08:59 PM, said:

Why I will be laying the rest of my money in my online gambling account on Houston -10 vs our beloved Bills on Sunday.

The Bills have had the most trouble with teams that run the ball well and play physical D (particularly the 3-4) with lots of blitz packages. Not only have we lost to these physical rushing teams, (Jets, 49ers) we have gotten crushed. Well it just so happens that the Bills are about to run into one of those teams and quite possibly the best team they will play all year. I am expecting a blowout.

Inside the Numbers

Bills Team Stats
Score For: 24.23 (12th)
Total Yards: 349 (19th)
Rush yds: 150.29 (4)
Pass Yds: 198.71 (29th)
Def
Avg Score Against: 32.43 (32)
Total Yards: 424.14 (31)
Rush Yds: 176.86 (32)
Pass Yards 198.71 (29)

Texans Team Stats
Score for: 30.86 (2)
Total Yards:371.43 (9)
Rush yds: 140.86 (6)
Pass yds: 230.57 (18)
Def
Avg score Against: 18.29 (6)
Total Yds: 283 (3)
Rush Yds: 83 (4)
Pass Yds: 230.57 (18th)

                                                                                         Rank              Rank
Buffalos Overall Scoring vs Houstons Overall D 24.43   (12)     18.29   (6)
Buffalos Road Passing vs Houstons Home D    164.25  (32)     203.75 (6)
Buffalos Road Rushing vs Houstons Home D    146.75  (5)      97         (13)
Houstons Overall Scoring vs Buffalos overall D  30.86   (2)      32.43    (32)
Houstons Home Passing vs Buffalos Road D     231.5   (17)    233.25  (15)
Houstons Home Rushing vs Buffalos Road D    122.25  (18)   161        (30)


All in all the Texans will be able to easily move the ball on a weak Bills D. They will be able to key in to stop our run game because of a weak road passing O. And They will be able to get to the passer with JJ Watt (against an injured Pears or his replacement Hairston) and blitzes.  The Bills have been terrible on the road under Gailey (3-7-1 ATS in the last 11 road games) and you can expect that trend to continue.  The Texans will be too much for the Bills to handle. My prediction: Final Score 38-13 Houston. You can count on the Texans -10 this Sunday.

Go Bills and I love this board.

Okay I bite...I book you bet up to $ 100, no vig.

I don't love the Bills in this spot, so only willing to go $100, but they got a chance

#5 FluffHead

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Posted 01 November 2012 - 10:19 PM

There is a pretty good site that I read that has the bills as their play of the week.  Lots of trends showing it may be closer than you think.  87 percent of the money has been coming in on Houston and that is never a good sign.  Houston at 7-0 with Chicago coming up next week on Sunday night football.  Double digit spread?  I'm staying away from it

#6 BuffaloFan68

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Posted 02 November 2012 - 02:11 AM

With Dave W. as DC & Fitz as starting QB = Blowout!  
If T-Jack isn't active for this game then Chan & Buddy deserve to be fired.

Bye the way, doesn't the Green Bay game have a bigger point spread?

#7 CSBill

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Posted 02 November 2012 - 04:56 AM

View Postbruceisloose78, on 01 November 2012 - 08:59 PM, said:

Why I will be laying the rest of my money in my online gambling account on Houston -10 vs our beloved Bills on Sunday.

The Bills have had the most trouble with teams that run the ball well and play physical D (particularly the 3-4) with lots of blitz packages. Not only have we lost to these physical rushing teams, (Jets, 49ers) we have gotten crushed. Well it just so happens that the Bills are about to run into one of those teams and quite possibly the best team they will play all year. I am expecting a blowout.

Inside the Numbers

Bills Team Stats
Score For: 24.23 (12th)
Total Yards: 349 (19th)
Rush yds: 150.29 (4)
Pass Yds: 198.71 (29th)
Def
Avg Score Against: 32.43 (32)
Total Yards: 424.14 (31)
Rush Yds: 176.86 (32)
Pass Yards 198.71 (29)

Texans Team Stats
Score for: 30.86 (2)
Total Yards:371.43 (9)
Rush yds: 140.86 (6)
Pass yds: 230.57 (18)
Def
Avg score Against: 18.29 (6)
Total Yds: 283 (3)
Rush Yds: 83 (4)
Pass Yds: 230.57 (18th)

Rank   Rank
Buffalos Overall Scoring vs Houstons Overall D 24.43   (12) 18.29   (6)
Buffalos Road Passing vs Houstons Home D 164.25  (32) 203.75 (6)
Buffalos Road Rushing vs Houstons Home D 146.75  (5)   97 (13)
Houstons Overall Scoring vs Buffalos overall D  30.86   (2)   32.43 (32)
Houstons Home Passing vs Buffalos Road D 231.5   (17) 233.25  (15)
Houstons Home Rushing vs Buffalos Road D 122.25  (18)   161 (30)


All in all the Texans will be able to easily move the ball on a weak Bills D. They will be able to key in to stop our run game because of a weak road passing O. And They will be able to get to the passer with JJ Watt (against an injured Pears or his replacement Hairston) and blitzes.  The Bills have been terrible on the road under Gailey (3-7-1 ATS in the last 11 road games) and you can expect that trend to continue.  The Texans will be too much for the Bills to handle. My prediction: Final Score 38-13 Houston. You can count on the Texans -10 this Sunday.

Go Bills and I love this board.

This news?

#8 Frez

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Posted 02 November 2012 - 05:18 AM

Special teams.......we can score

#9 eball

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Posted 02 November 2012 - 05:31 AM

The line opened at 11-11.5 and is now at 10...which suggests the "sharp" money is not on Houston.

#10 plenzmd1

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Posted 02 November 2012 - 06:00 AM

Bruce..are we on? No worries if not..just want to know before I make the bet somewhere else.

#11 Coach Tuesday

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Posted 02 November 2012 - 06:32 AM

I wonder what the two week over-under on punts is.  I don't see the Bills forcing a single punt the next two games.

#12 plenzmd1

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Posted 02 November 2012 - 06:54 AM

View PostCoach Tuesday, on 02 November 2012 - 06:32 AM, said:

I wonder what the two week over-under on punts is.  I don't see the Bills forcing a single punt the next two games.

That would be a great prop bet. I will take the over at 4 punts combined, give you 2-1 odds, $ 20

#13 Offsides Number 76

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Posted 02 November 2012 - 07:00 AM

No double-digit spread in the NFL is a lock, ever.

#14 Coach Tuesday

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Posted 02 November 2012 - 08:51 AM

View Postplenzmd1, on 02 November 2012 - 06:54 AM, said:

That would be a great prop bet. I will take the over at 4 punts combined, give you 2-1 odds, $ 20

Meaning I pay $10 for the under?  Done.

#15 plenzmd1

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Posted 02 November 2012 - 08:57 AM

View PostCoach Tuesday, on 02 November 2012 - 08:51 AM, said:

Meaning I pay $10 for the under?  Done.

consider it booked..we can figure out payment options..should be fun to track this LOL

#16 Coach Tuesday

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Posted 02 November 2012 - 08:58 AM

View Postplenzmd1, on 02 November 2012 - 08:57 AM, said:

consider it booked..we can figure out payment options..should be fun to track this LOL

You got it.  Paypal works for me.

#17 CodeMonkey

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Posted 02 November 2012 - 09:18 AM

View Postplenzmd1, on 02 November 2012 - 06:54 AM, said:

That would be a great prop bet. I will take the over at 4 punts combined, give you 2-1 odds, $ 20
Do I understand this bet right?  You are saying that combined, the pats* and the Texans will punt more than 4 times?
Boy I sure hope you win.  If the Bills opponents punt less than 4 times in 2 games combined the Bills will be outscored by the national debt.

And you should have made it 3.5 or 4.5 to avoid the case you have now if the total is exactly 4 :)

#18 Roc City Bills Backer

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Posted 02 November 2012 - 09:43 AM

A sucker is born every minute.  Why waste your last dough at your online book.

Go light on houston if a must (I'll be on the other side taking the chalk)

there are so many better options out there

Bal -2.5 @ cle
den -2.5 @ cin
chi -2.5 @ ten
*buy the 1/2 pt each, sit back and enjoy your sunday

oh and there's a 60% chance of rain and wind in Seatltle on Sunday. Minnesota has played ONE true outdoor game this year and lost by double digits to WASH.  Give the points....just sayin.

GO Bills!

#19 eball

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Posted 02 November 2012 - 10:12 AM

View PostRoc City Bills Backer, on 02 November 2012 - 09:43 AM, said:

A sucker is born every minute.  Why waste your last dough at your online book.

Go light on houston if a must (I'll be on the other side taking the chalk)

there are so many better options out there

Bal -2.5 @ cle
den -2.5 @ cin
chi -2.5 @ ten
*buy the 1/2 pt each, sit back and enjoy your sunday

oh and there's a 60% chance of rain and wind in Seatltle on Sunday. Minnesota has played ONE true outdoor game this year and lost by double digits to WASH.  Give the points....just sayin.

GO Bills!

Hope you're right on that last one...I ignored the big favorites and took Seattle in all of my survivor pools, hoping for upsets elsewhere.

#20 kobe808lak

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Posted 02 November 2012 - 10:24 AM

I felt better about the 49ers game than this one...and that one didn't turn out quite so good.