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Eureka- I've got it....the reason why opposing QBs seem soooo...


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#1 over 20 years of fanhood

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Posted 14 November 2012 - 10:51 PM

Opposing QBs seem so good because the bills defense is so lousy.  Then Fitz looks so lousy because he practices against a lousy d, and plays against such better defenses. Thus, Fitz needs to play vs. the Bills d and he would look amazing!

9 games in, these QBs have worse QBR than Fritz... But yet almost every QB on this list is thought to be better especially after observed playing aging the bills d.... Remember Sanchez lookin like Dan Marino in the opener.  He is bottom 5 in QBR.  

Eli Manning
Sanchez
Romo
Ponder
Gabbert
Luck
Stafford
Tannehill
Weedon
Vick
Palmer
Kolb
Cutler
Bradford
Newton
Cassel

Discus....

Edited by over 20 years of fanhood, 14 November 2012 - 11:04 PM.


#2 Dragonborn10

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Posted 14 November 2012 - 11:01 PM

It's no use defending Fitz...This board hates him.  If he moved to LB I doubt the defense would be worse and probably would be tougher to run against.   Andy Reid fired his DC at the bye.  Maybe Chan is right and the talent just isn't there no matter what the scheme is.  Either way last in defense should trigger firing the entire defensive coaching staff.

#3 Captain Hindsight

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Posted 14 November 2012 - 11:07 PM

Fitz should be average 40 points a game. He should be an inch taller and 5 pounds heavier. He should also **** rainbows.

#4 over 20 years of fanhood

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Posted 14 November 2012 - 11:19 PM

View PostDadonkadonk, on 14 November 2012 - 11:01 PM, said:

It's no use defending Fitz...This board hates him.  If he moved to LB I doubt the defense would be worse and probably would be tougher to run against.   Andy Reid fired his DC at the bye.  Maybe Chan is right and the talent just isn't there no matter what the scheme is.  Either way last in defense should trigger firing the entire defensive coaching staff.

Not defending, just perhaps reframing perception.  I think for example the majority of the board would take Cutler over Fitz, but the data actually shows he is having a much poorer season.  Same might go for Palmer or Vick.

I agree I want to see the bills draft the Payton/Brady/Brees caliber QB but only a few teams have that now.  Not every other team.

#5 Edwards' Arm

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Posted 14 November 2012 - 11:30 PM

View Postover 20 years of fanhood, on 14 November 2012 - 10:51 PM, said:

Opposing QBs seem so good because the bills defense is so lousy.  Then Fitz looks so lousy because he practices against a lousy d, and plays against such better defenses. Thus, Fitz needs to play vs. the Bills d and he would look amazing!

9 games in, these QBs have worse QBR than Fritz... But yet almost every QB on this list is thought to be better especially after observed playing aging the bills d.... Remember Sanchez lookin like Dan Marino in the opener.  He is bottom 5 in QBR.  

Eli Manning
Sanchez
Romo
Ponder
Gabbert
Luck
Stafford
Tannehill
Weedon
Vick
Palmer
Kolb
Cutler
Bradford
Newton
Cassel

Discus....

Kelly Holcomb and John Elway have almost identical career QB ratings. Clearly, Holcomb was not nearly as good a QB as Elway. But Holcomb focused on short, high percentage throws; whereas Elway gravitated toward longer, lower percentage/higher reward opportunities. QB rating takes completion percentage into account; which means that it unfairly rewards QBs in the Holcomb/Trent Edwards/Ryan Fitzpatrick mold, and unfairly punishes QBs like Elway.

John Elway has a significantly higher career yards per attempt stat than Kelly Holcomb; correctly indicating that Elway was the better QB.

This season, Ryan Fitzpatrick is averaging 6.8 yards per pass attempt. Eli Manning and Andrew Luck are each averaging 7.3 yards per attempt on the season--consistent with the observation that both QBs are playing at a much higher level than Fitz. Cutler is averaging 7.1 yards per attempt; Stafford 7.0 yards per attempt. Tannehill is averaging 7.1 yards per attempt--not bad for a rookie! His season average should go up a little on Thursday.

On the other hand, some of the guys on your list have lower average yards per attempt stats than Fitz. Weeden, for example, is averaging just 6.2 yards per attempt.

Some of the QBs you mentioned are playing significantly better football than Fitz, some are playing slightly better than him; and a number of those QBs--such as Sanchez--are below average players; and are not playing at the same level as Fitz.

#6 Meathead

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 03:05 AM

fans on any board for a team that isnt winning would take any other qb for their team no matter what the stats say

#7 Buffalo Barbarian

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 03:18 AM

View Postover 20 years of fanhood, on 14 November 2012 - 10:51 PM, said:

Opposing QBs seem so good because the bills defense is so lousy.  Then Fitz looks so lousy because he practices against a lousy d, and plays against such better defenses. Thus, Fitz needs to play vs. the Bills d and he would look amazing!

9 games in, these QBs have worse QBR than Fritz... But yet almost every QB on this list is thought to be better especially after observed playing aging the bills d.... Remember Sanchez lookin like Dan Marino in the opener.  He is bottom 5 in QBR.  

Eli Manning
Sanchez
Romo
Ponder
Gabbert
Luck
Stafford
Tannehill
Weedon
Vick
Palmer
Kolb
Cutler
Bradford
Newton
Cassel

Discus....

Can we trade him for Luck then :thumbsup:

View PostCaptain Hindsight, on 14 November 2012 - 11:07 PM, said:

Fitz should be average 40 points a game. He should be an inch taller and 5 pounds heavier. He should also **** rainbows.

4 inches taller 40 lbs heavier would be better, and a strong accurate arm would be great too.

View PostEdwards, on 14 November 2012 - 11:30 PM, said:

Kelly Holcomb and John Elway have almost identical career QB ratings. Clearly, Holcomb was not nearly as good a QB as Elway. But Holcomb focused on short, high percentage throws; whereas Elway gravitated toward longer, lower percentage/higher reward opportunities. QB rating takes completion percentage into account; which means that it unfairly rewards QBs in the Holcomb/Trent Edwards/Ryan Fitzpatrick mold, and unfairly punishes QBs like Elway.

John Elway has a significantly higher career yards per attempt stat than Kelly Holcomb; correctly indicating that Elway was the better QB.

This season, Ryan Fitzpatrick is averaging 6.8 yards per pass attempt. Eli Manning and Andrew Luck are each averaging 7.3 yards per attempt on the season--consistent with the observation that both QBs are playing at a much higher level than Fitz. Cutler is averaging 7.1 yards per attempt; Stafford 7.0 yards per attempt. Tannehill is averaging 7.1 yards per attempt--not bad for a rookie! His season average should go up a little on Thursday.

On the other hand, some of the guys on your list have lower average yards per attempt stats than Fitz. Weeden, for example, is averaging just 6.2 yards per attempt.

Some of the QBs you mentioned are playing significantly better football than Fitz, some are playing slightly better than him; and a number of those QBs--such as Sanchez--are below average players; and are not playing at the same level as Fitz.

Thank you, how some of these guys can defend Fitz after all his years in the league is beyond me. He has one good game this year and many somehow think he finally is going to turn it around :lol: :doh: :wallbash: :wacko:

#8 bowery4

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 07:33 AM

View PostEdwards, on 14 November 2012 - 11:30 PM, said:

Kelly Holcomb and John Elway have almost identical career QB ratings. Clearly, Holcomb was not nearly as good a QB as Elway. But Holcomb focused on short, high percentage throws; whereas Elway gravitated toward longer, lower percentage/higher reward opportunities. QB rating takes completion percentage into account; which means that it unfairly rewards QBs in the Holcomb/Trent Edwards/Ryan Fitzpatrick mold, and unfairly punishes QBs like Elway.

John Elway has a significantly higher career yards per attempt stat than Kelly Holcomb; correctly indicating that Elway was the better QB.

This season, Ryan Fitzpatrick is averaging 6.8 yards per pass attempt. Eli Manning and Andrew Luck are each averaging 7.3 yards per attempt on the season--consistent with the observation that both QBs are playing at a much higher level than Fitz. Cutler is averaging 7.1 yards per attempt; Stafford 7.0 yards per attempt. Tannehill is averaging 7.1 yards per attempt--not bad for a rookie! His season average should go up a little on Thursday.

On the other hand, some of the guys on your list have lower average yards per attempt stats than Fitz. Weeden, for example, is averaging just 6.2 yards per attempt.

Some of the QBs you mentioned are playing significantly better football than Fitz, some are playing slightly better than him; and a number of those QBs--such as Sanchez--are below average players; and are not playing at the same level as Fitz.
You have discussed this YPA thing being the end all QB rating on here way too much. It is a stat, all stats have variables and statistical anomalies  Let me repeat that all stats YPA, QB rating, the new QB rating, even INTs in a season.I am not saying Fitz is great but the scheme which is tailored to his abilities is also ALL ABOUT SHORT PASSING AND YAC (not per attempt). Eli stinks it up sometimes even if he does have a 7.1 (not that I wouldn't want him to be our QB) but they are numbers, Fitz is a middle of the road QB, we get ya. Stop blowing the same horn all the time your arm is going to get more muscular then the other and you'll look funny.
All that said I want them to draft a QB this off season too.

#9 Billy in 4C

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 08:09 AM

OP - the problem is the limitations with Fitz' arm.  When we need to go deep and move the ball quickly we can't.  Also, his turnovers come at killer times.

We looked better than the Pats last week and Fitz played great.  The fumble at our own 14 yard line and the INT to end the game were killer.

Some guys you named like Manning, Stafford and Luck are clutch and it doesn't matter what their stats are - they come up big in big games/crutial situations.

#10 zow2

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 08:16 AM

I'll say again,  Fitz's stats this year are better than a 3-6 record on most clubs.  Then again most clubs have an average defense and if the Bills did, the Tenn game and maybe even NE don't get away.

The problem with Fitz is that when he's asked to win the game at the end, he struggles.  This might be him, or it might be a product of the other offensive players on the team.  He won a few times late last season  (NE, Oak, Philly come to mind).

#11 PatsFanNH

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 08:26 AM

View Postover 20 years of fanhood, on 14 November 2012 - 10:51 PM, said:

Opposing QBs seem so good because the bills defense is so lousy.  Then Fitz looks so lousy because he practices against a lousy d, and plays against such better defenses. Thus, Fitz needs to play vs. the Bills d and he would look amazing!

9 games in, these QBs have worse QBR than Fritz... But yet almost every QB on this list is thought to be better especially after observed playing aging the bills d.... Remember Sanchez lookin like Dan Marino in the opener.  He is bottom 5 in QBR.  

Eli Manning  -- 2 SB victories 1 SB MVP.... he IS better than Fitz
Sanchez  -- This ojne Sucks!! IMO Below Fitz
Romo  -- Over rated and so inconsistant it is scary
Ponder  -- Sucks I think Fitz Better
Gabbert -- See Ponder
Luck  -- IS probably the next GREAT QB to replace Manning,Brady and Brees (and Join Rogers)
Stafford  -- Hard to say he has a freak of a WR makes him look even better
Tannehill  -- looks VERY good for a Rookie, IMO may be better than Fitz to soon to know.
Weedon  -- N/A have not seen him play
Vick  -- Sucks I take Fitz over him
Palmer -- Sucks now
Kolb -- Sucks and always has Fitz is better
Cutler -- Is better than Fitz but also has a million times better team around him.
Bradford --Not sure he is young still and very inconsistant
Newton -- Last year yes this year he looks more like Vick
Cassel  -- haha WHO THINKS HE IS BETTER?? REALLY?

Discus....

I responded inside your quote..

#12 BobChalmers

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 08:38 AM

View Postzow2, on 15 November 2012 - 08:16 AM, said:

I'll say again,  Fitz's stats this year are better than a 3-6 record on most clubs.  Then again most clubs have an average defense and if the Bills did, the Tenn game and maybe even NE don't get away.

The problem with Fitz is that when he's asked to win the game at the end, he struggles.  This might be him, or it might be a product of the other offensive players on the team.  He won a few times late last season  (NE, Oak, Philly come to mind).

The other problem with Fitz is he is innaccurate and even on his completions he is throwing above and behind his receivers which prevents them from making the plays they should even when they do catch it.

The YAC is coming from the scheme - it would be much higher if he were a more accurate passer.  Moreover, the running game would be even better if he could generate a deep threat - but he can't.

Fitz isn't the worst part of the team - that dishonor goes to the LB's and it's not even close - but he's more of a liability than an asset, which is to say, he's in the bottom half of the league.

#13 Billsrhody

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 08:52 AM

Luck is #4 in total QBR (espn metric).

http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr

I think this is a better representation of where QBs rank.

#14 All_Pro_Bills

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 09:18 AM

The key stat is that any QB for the Bills must put up around 40 points to have a chance of winning.  In the NFL that is nearly impossible on a consistent basis.  That fact puts you in a completely different mindset vs. knowing you have a defense that has your back.  Not saying the QB position can't be upgraded only that the team game is full of interdepedencies and relationships that impact each other and nothing operates in a vacuum.  

Answer this: if we had a top 10 defense would we even be discussing QB play?

#15 JPS

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 09:28 AM

View Postover 20 years of fanhood, on 14 November 2012 - 11:19 PM, said:



Not defending, just perhaps reframing perception.  I think for example the majority of the board would take Cutler over Fitz, but the data actually shows he is having a much poorer season.  Same might go for Palmer or Vick.

I agree I want to see the bills draft the Payton/Brady/Brees caliber QB but only a few teams have that now.  Not every other team.

The data I see has Cutler at 7-2.

#16 Sisyphean Bills

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 09:45 AM

View PostBobChalmers, on 15 November 2012 - 08:38 AM, said:

The other problem with Fitz is he is innaccurate and even on his completions he is throwing above and behind his receivers which prevents them from making the plays they should even when they do catch it.

The YAC is coming from the scheme - it would be much higher if he were a more accurate passer.  Moreover, the running game would be even better if he could generate a deep threat - but he can't.

Fitz isn't the worst part of the team - that dishonor goes to the LB's and it's not even close - but he's more of a liability than an asset, which is to say, he's in the bottom half of the league.

No doubt.

Fitz would be a "better" QB if the defense didn't suck so hard.  He'd also be a "better" QB if he had a head coach and one that was totally committed to building a ground-and-pound running game and using it.  Instead little attention is paid to the offense -- "Chan'll coach 'em up" is the catch-phrase.  The FB and TE position are undervalued and the Bills try to finesse a running game out of spread formations with minimal deep threat through the air because Fitz is not and never was a QB that could lead victories on his arm alone.

#17 Captain Hindsight

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 09:47 AM

View PostAll_Pro_Bills, on 15 November 2012 - 09:18 AM, said:

The key stat is that any QB for the Bills must put up around 40 points to have a chance of winning.  In the NFL that is nearly impossible on a consistent basis.  That fact puts you in a completely different mindset vs. knowing you have a defense that has your back.  Not saying the QB position can't be upgraded only that the team game is full of interdepedencies and relationships that impact each other and nothing operates in a vacuum.  

Answer this: if we had a top 10 defense would we even be discussing QB play?
Not a chance

#18 Edwards' Arm

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 11:34 AM

View Postbowery4, on 15 November 2012 - 07:33 AM, said:

You have discussed this YPA thing being the end all QB rating on here way too much. It is a stat, all stats have variables and statistical anomalies  Let me repeat that all stats YPA, QB rating, the new QB rating, even INTs in a season.I am not saying Fitz is great but the scheme which is tailored to his abilities is also ALL ABOUT SHORT PASSING AND YAC (not per attempt). Eli stinks it up sometimes even if he does have a 7.1 (not that I wouldn't want him to be our QB) but they are numbers, Fitz is a middle of the road QB, we get ya. Stop blowing the same horn all the time your arm is going to get more muscular then the other and you'll look funny.
All that said I want them to draft a QB this off season too.

> the scheme which is tailored to his abilities is also ALL ABOUT SHORT PASSING AND YAC (not per attempt).

If Fitz completes a 5 yard pass, and if the receiver obtains an additional 15 yards after the catch, Fitz gets credit for all 20 yards when computing yards per attempt. There is no hidden benefit that Fitz is providing to the offense, which yards per attempt is failing to capture.

The reason the Bills' offense is predicated around the short passing game is because Fitz is incapable of throwing intermediate to deep passes with the level of accuracy one would expect from a backup, roster-worthy NFL QB. This is a very serious limitation. Fitz's inability to punish defenses for selling out against the short passing game is one of the reasons why his yards per attempt stat is not higher. Flutie had the same problem in his second year as the Bills' starter.

#19 FireChan

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 11:47 AM

View PostEdwards, on 15 November 2012 - 11:34 AM, said:



> the scheme which is tailored to his abilities is also ALL ABOUT SHORT PASSING AND YAC (not per attempt).

If Fitz completes a 5 yard pass, and if the receiver obtains an additional 15 yards after the catch, Fitz gets credit for all 20 yards when computing yards per attempt. There is no hidden benefit that Fitz is providing to the offense, which yards per attempt is failing to capture.

The reason the Bills' offense is predicated around the short passing game is because Fitz is incapable of throwing intermediate to deep passes with the level of accuracy one would expect from a backup, roster-worthy NFL QB. This is a very serious limitation. Fitz's inability to punish defenses for selling out against the short passing game is one of the reasons why his yards per attempt stat is not higher. Flutie had the same problem in his second year as the Bills' starter.

He threw some intermediate passes this sunday in perfect positions, but his season hasn't been the greatest.

#20 Dibs

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Posted 15 November 2012 - 12:01 PM

View PostAll_Pro_Bills, on 15 November 2012 - 09:18 AM, said:

Answer this: if we had a top 10 defense would we even be discussing QB play?
I really think we would be.  We'd be saying things like, "If we only had a good QB we might be SB contenders right now." etc.