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The Next Three


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#1 JESSEFEFFER

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Posted 22 November 2012 - 07:57 AM

Winning the next three will put them at 7 and 6 and in position to get a much clearer look at the post season.  This is still not the most likely outcome but it is certainly not a long shot either.  Four trends to consider:

Schedule.  It's been discussed from the time it was released, but to close with 3 home and 1 semi home game in their last 6 is unusual for them.  It's tough to sell those tickets given the weather and the Holiday issues but it should give them a boost.

Health.   This is the healthiest a Bills team has been at this point in the season since I can't remember when. This is especially true of the o-line.  And, aside from David Nelson, none of the long term injured have hurt the roster.  This is to say the players on the field have played as good as or better than those that have been replaced.  Getting Kyle Moore more snaps instead of Anderson or Kelsay, Hairston in for a gimpy Erik Pears, McKelvin in for Williams have made the team better, imo.  Playing Spiller more should help too and possibly seeing Freddie in a specialsit role that focuses on 3rd down and redzone situations, ala Robb Riddick, could be a difference maker.

Defense.  Since the bye week the historically bad play has trended more toward average and may be a become strength down the stretch.  D-line play is more like we all had hoped and the secondary is looking better because of it.

Fitzpatrick.  I like the guy and think some of the criticism he takes is either misplaced or just the product of a group histeria bias.  He is trending better as well but the Titans and Pats (II) endgames have really put the season on the brink of collapse.  I have refered to him as a better quarterback than a passer and now is the time to prove it.  To make anything of the last 6 he will need to be a better clutch performer than he has shown in his time here.  Some of these endgame failures are on his teammates but too many of them have been on him.  If the defense does enough to keep these remaining games close, which I think will happen, he will make the difference one way or another.

#2 JohnnyGold

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Posted 22 November 2012 - 08:18 AM

View PostJESSEFEFFER, on 22 November 2012 - 07:57 AM, said:

Winning the next three will put them at 7 and 6 and in position to get a much clearer look at the post season.  This is still not the most likely outcome but it is certainly not a long shot either.  Four trends to consider:

Schedule.  It's been discussed from the time it was released, but to close with 3 home and 1 semi home game in their last 6 is unusual for them.  It's tough to sell those tickets given the weather and the Holiday issues but it should give them a boost.

Health.   This is the healthiest a Bills team has been at this point in the season since I can't remember when. This is especially true of the o-line.  And, aside from David Nelson, none of the long term injured have hurt the roster.  This is to say the players on the field have played as good as or better than those that have been replaced.  Getting Kyle Moore more snaps instead of Anderson or Kelsay, Hairston in for a gimpy Erik Pears, McKelvin in for Williams have made the team better, imo.  Playing Spiller more should help too and possibly seeing Freddie in a specialsit role that focuses on 3rd down and redzone situations, ala Robb Riddick, could be a difference maker.

Defense.  Since the bye week the historically bad play has trended more toward average and may be a become strength down the stretch.  D-line play is more like we all had hoped and the secondary is looking better because of it.

Fitzpatrick.  I like the guy and think some of the criticism he takes is either misplaced or just the product of a group histeria bias.  He is trending better as well but the Titans and Pats (II) endgames have really put the season on the brink of collapse.  I have refered to him as a better quarterback than a passer and now is the time to prove it.  To make anything of the last 6 he will need to be a better clutch performer than he has shown in his time here.  Some of these endgame failures are on his teammates but too many of them have been on him.  If the defense does enough to keep these remaining games close, which I think will happen, he will make the difference one way or another.

me and you have pretty much the same outlook on this team. great post!

im very nervous about this game this weekend.

it would be amazing to win the coin toss, defer, force a 3 and out, get a good punt return, and have cj break open a screen to go up 7-0 quickly on the road, and silence that dome. i do NOT want to play catch-up, in a shoot out, on turf, on the road.

it's been a long, strange, up and down road this season. bills fans are passionate--at many, many points this season, that passion has boiled over into anger. anger at the d, at fitzpatrick, at gailey, at ralph, at each other.

but here we are. 2 games back from a wild card, 6 to play, and maybe the easiest schedule in the conference to end the season.

you would have to be the most pessimistic of pessimistic bills fans to be able to look at our schedule, look how we've played the last 3 games, and think we have absolutely no shot at a wild card.

there are a lot of careers on the line these next six weeks--this is the best look at the playoffs this organization has had this late in the season since about 2000. win out, and for all intents and purposes (unless the colts and the steelers both win out as well) were in.

i mean, you can hate fitz, hate the d, hate wannstedt all you want. but here it is, almost december, and the bills are playing for the playoffs. i guess life isnt perfect, but can't fans just be happy with this, for this season? we got a look at it. our december games are important.

personally? i think this is fun, and im looking forward to the last month of the season.

GO. BILLS.

#3 JESSEFEFFER

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Posted 22 November 2012 - 08:44 AM

Yes this game is huge.  Of the four possible outcomes of the next three games I'd put 3 wins at somewhere around 25 to 30% probability, 2 wins at 50 to 60%, 1 win at  5 to 10% and 0 wins at less than 5.   This team, this franchise and this region are overdue for some reward for keeping our collective faith that we'll see better days.  Cue the Goo Goo Dolls.

#4 bigK14094

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Posted 22 November 2012 - 09:03 AM

The next three would be great to get, make the franchaise respectible again. I would love to have the Jets game at season end mean something, and chew them up in the last regular season game.  Its so much fun to hear the NY media bleed when the Jets loose.

#5 jcbillsfan

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Posted 22 November 2012 - 09:09 AM

To have that Tennessee game back.   What a difference it would make.  



#6 Astrobot

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Posted 22 November 2012 - 09:19 AM

Anybody know our record in domes? I don't think it's too good over the last 10 years.

#7 Keukasmallies

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Posted 22 November 2012 - 09:25 AM

Have you watched the Bills games this year?  Do you, in your heart of hearts, believe the Bills can win the next three...can win any three of the remaining games?

#8 JESSEFEFFER

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Posted 22 November 2012 - 09:35 AM

View PostAstrobot, on 22 November 2012 - 09:19 AM, said:

Anybody know our record in domes? I don't think it's too good over the last 10 years.

I think this is almost totally on the quality/health of the offensive line.  They have the burden of maintaining the quality of their play in the face of extreme noise.  I think they did OK in Houston (aside from JJ Watt) and Arizona.

#9 swnybillsfan

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Posted 22 November 2012 - 09:40 AM

View PostKeukasmallies, on 22 November 2012 - 09:25 AM, said:

Have you watched the Bills games this year?  Do you, in your heart of hearts, believe the Bills can win the next three...can win any three of the remaining games?
absolutely. from what i've seen this year, this team has a lot of talent on it. they also have a lot of flaws. we've seen good and we've seen bad. very, very bad. but we have not seen a game where the offense and defense were on at the same time. i am hoping that this team is starting to peak. i'd love to sweep miami, split with the jets, and win the third matchup with the patsies this year.

#10 JESSEFEFFER

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Posted 22 November 2012 - 10:30 AM

View PostKeukasmallies, on 22 November 2012 - 09:25 AM, said:

Have you watched the Bills games this year?  Do you, in your heart of hearts, believe the Bills can win the next three...can win any three of the remaining games?

I made a case for optimism and broke it down to mathematical hunches.  That is all I have.


"The nice part about being a pessimist is that you are constantly being either proven right or pleasantly surprised."  ~George F. Will, The Leveling Wind

#11 JohnnyGold

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Posted 22 November 2012 - 10:41 AM

View PostAstrobot, on 22 November 2012 - 09:19 AM, said:

Anybody know our record in domes? I don't think it's too good over the last 10 years.

domes?

outside?

on grass?

on turf?

last 13 years in general.

lets just say: "bad all around"

#12 JohnnyGold

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Posted 22 November 2012 - 10:53 AM

View PostKeukasmallies, on 22 November 2012 - 09:25 AM, said:

Have you watched the Bills games this year?  Do you, in your heart of hearts, believe the Bills can win the next three...can win any three of the remaining games?

do i personally think we'll beat the colts? no. i've been a bills fan for too long, and had my heart broken too many times. i can see waking up monday morning to go to work after this long weekend, dejected and despondent after the bills either a) choked away another sure-fire victory in the closing minutes, or b) got blown out of the water by a clearly superior colts team, thus emphasizing how far of a gap there is between the playoff teams (colts) and the non playoff teams (us.)

vegas has us as 3 point underdogs too.

but who really knows.

the colts only quality win of the season appears to be over the packers. they have some cupcake wins to pad that record, just like we should by the end of the year. their schedule is brutal from here on out. are they truly a 6-4 team? are we truly a 4-6 team? who's better?

statistically we're both very close in terms of points scored and points allowed.

our d has been playing somewhat well as of late.

i mean, what can you say? it's going to be quite a game. it's not a sure thing, and a win would be a pleasant surprise.

im just going to try to actually enjoy watching it.

#13 The Wiz

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Posted 22 November 2012 - 11:55 AM

View PostAstrobot, on 22 November 2012 - 09:19 AM, said:

Anybody know our record in domes? I don't think it's too good over the last 10 years.
I doubt it is any different than our record outside of domes, domes played with the roof open/closed, turf, grass, etc in the last 10 years.