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Second Round QB = Unlikely Franchise QB


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#1 WickedGame

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Posted 22 November 2012 - 09:37 AM

Since most fans agree we need to find a franchise QB somewhere in the draft -- and since the consensus is the QB talent this year isn't elite -- I wanted to see how second round quarterbacks have fared through the years. How many emerged as a starters? How many became "franchise QBs"? How many are Pro Bowl-caliber players?

Not good.

This article from draft season earlier this year makes it pretty obvious: Looking for our next franchise QB in the second round isn't likely to work out: http://miami.cbsloca...y-a-major-risk/

Dating back to 2006, only Andy Dalton emerged from Round 2 as a legit starter. Everyone else is a back-up or worse.

Could we take a LB in round 1 and strike gold with a QB in round 2? Maybe. But don't get your hopes up that our savior will be there for us on the second day.

#2 DanInUticaTampa

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Posted 22 November 2012 - 10:36 AM

I don't know. There really arent many qbs taken in the 2nd round, which is one reason why there aren't that many successful ones. I wouldn't avoid it just because of that stat. There should be a qb available in the 2nd round that would be reasonably better than Fitz and make us a much better team. These qbs seem to be getting better coaching, and are more ready. There seem to be a lot less qb busts recently the past couple years. Gabbert being the exception. We are seeing 3rd and 4th rounders playing well their first year.

#3 San Jose Bills Fan

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Posted 22 November 2012 - 11:53 AM

We've had numerous 2nd round QB studies done on this board but regardless, one of the reasons there are not too many 2nd round success stories at QB is because increasingly, QBs are being overdrafted and taken in the first round when it's not warranted.

Teams are desperate for "franchise quarterbacks" and willing to reach for them.

That's why it was somewhat surprising that Dalton and Kaepernick were available last year at the top of the 2nd round. Of course part of that was a byproduct of Newton, Clocker, Ponder, and Gabbert going so high.

There was probably a time when only Newton would have been taken in the first round. Those times are gone.

So the moral of the story as I see it is not that you shouldn't take a 2nd round quarterback but rather, if you don't make a bold (risky) move for a quarterback in the 1st round, you might not have anyone to choose from in the 2nd round.

#4 You herd it hear last

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Posted 22 November 2012 - 11:54 AM

imo, the # of 1st round qb's is directly proportional to the demand for them, not necessarily determined by the overall talent level of the group. More gm's are unwilling to let the possible franchise guy slip through. With the rookie cap, they can more afford to roll the dice. That's why in 4 months they'll be talking up Geno Smith.

#5 Captain Hindsight

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Posted 22 November 2012 - 12:02 PM

I still think Jimmy Clausen has a chance.

#6 WickedGame

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Posted 22 November 2012 - 12:10 PM

View PostSan Jose Bills Fan, on 22 November 2012 - 11:53 AM, said:

We've had numerous 2nd round QB studies done on this board but regardless, one of the reasons there are not too many 2nd round success stories at QB is because increasingly, QBs are being overdrafted and taken in the first round when it's not warranted.

Teams are desperate for "franchise quarterbacks" and willing to reach for them.

That's why it was somewhat surprising that Dalton and Kaepernick were available last year at the top of the 2nd round. Of course part of that was a byproduct of Newton, Clocker, Ponder, and Gabbert going so high.

There was probably a time when only Newton would have been taken in the first round. Those times are gone.

So the moral of the story as I see it is not that you shouldn't take a 2nd round quarterback but rather, if you don't make a bold (risky) move for a quarterback in the 1st round, you might not have anyone to choose from in the 2nd round.

I think this only reinforces the point. If the shortage of QBs in round 2 is because teams reach for second round talent in Round 1, I'd argue there's an even MORE convincing case to be made that second round QBs aren't franchise guys. Heck, half of the round one QBs aren't franchise guys -- and shouldn't have been taken in round 1. A Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan or Eli Manning at the VERY top of the draft is a franchise QB. A stretch that sneaks into the first round is not.  

It seems to me there are three choices: 1) Hit a homerun with a Top 5 pick QB, 2) Draft a developmental QB in round 3-7 and hope you strike gold and find Tom Brady, or 3) Draft a backup QB in round 2. We have plenty of backup QBs in Buffalo.

#7 ganesh

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Posted 22 November 2012 - 12:12 PM

View PostDanInUticaTampa, on 22 November 2012 - 10:36 AM, said:

I don't know. There really arent many qbs taken in the 2nd round, which is one reason why there aren't that many successful ones. I wouldn't avoid it just because of that stat. There should be a qb available in the 2nd round that would be reasonably better than Fitz and make us a much better team. These qbs seem to be getting better coaching, and are more ready. There seem to be a lot less qb busts recently the past couple years. Gabbert being the exception. We are seeing 3rd and 4th rounders playing well their first year.

Also, if there is a QB rated as a 2nd round pick, desperate teams will trade up to the 1st round and pick them (like J.P. Losman).

#8 uncle flap

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Posted 22 November 2012 - 12:14 PM

View PostSan Jose Bills Fan, on 22 November 2012 - 11:53 AM, said:


So the moral of the story as I see it is not that you shouldn't take a 2nd round quarterback but rather, if you don't make a bold (risky) move for a quarterback in the 1st round, you might not have anyone to choose from in the 2nd round.

This.

But, I don't think that this year the Bills should be making that bold move. I'm no expert, but I don't see too much of a difference between the guys that are slated as 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rounders. So I don't think they should pass up a stud LB, CB, or WR in the first, because they could probably find a QB comprable to what they'd the drafting in the 1st anyway. And if not, so be it. We all know it's basically impossible to make a QB.

As much as I want to upgrade the QB position, I'm much more willing to continue building the team by taking a "sure thing" at another position than taking a QB because they "need" one. I'd much rather take a "flyer" on a 2nd or 3rd (or even later) round QB than take a "flyer" on this year's crop  of 1st rd QBs.

Again, I'm talking about this year. I would certainly feel different if I felt there were more QBs that were more highly touted.

#9 CarolinaBill

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Posted 22 November 2012 - 12:14 PM

It goes back longer than you might think, 2nd rd qbs haves an appx. success rate of 33%, but if you dig even deeper, success rate is equivalent to being a consistent starter, not a playoff game winner, and certainly not a SB Winner.  The place to get QBs, if you want SUSTAINED success, is the 1st rd.  It's a 50/50 shot, and the Scouting Dept has to be on point, but thats the answer, first rd or bust (slight pun intended).

one of the only recent exceptions of course would be Drew Brees, who if you recall, was not exactly lighting it up with SD before he was allowed to leave for nothing VIA free agency (due to a shoulder injury that could've ending his then sputtering career).

Edited by CarolinaBill, 22 November 2012 - 12:17 PM.


#10 Rob's House

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Posted 22 November 2012 - 12:43 PM

View PostWickedGame, on 22 November 2012 - 12:10 PM, said:


It seems to me there are three choices: 1) Hit a homerun with a Top 5 pick QB, 2) Draft a developmental QB in round 3-7 and hope you strike gold and find Tom Brady, or 3) Draft a backup QB in round 2. We have plenty of backup QBs in Buffalo.
Top 5 pick doesn't guarantee a home run.

#11 San Jose Bills Fan

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Posted 22 November 2012 - 01:34 PM

View Postuncle flap, on 22 November 2012 - 12:14 PM, said:

This.

But, I don't think that this year the Bills should be making that bold move. I'm no expert, but I don't see too much of a difference between the guys that are slated as 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rounders. So I don't think they should pass up a stud LB, CB, or WR in the first, because they could probably find a QB comprable to what they'd the drafting in the 1st anyway. And if not, so be it. We all know it's basically impossible to make a QB.

As much as I want to upgrade the QB position, I'm much more willing to continue building the team by taking a "sure thing" at another position than taking a QB because they "need" one. I'd much rather take a "flyer" on a 2nd or 3rd (or even later) round QB than take a "flyer" on this year's crop  of 1st rd QBs.

Again, I'm talking about this year. I would certainly feel different if I felt there were more QBs that were more highly touted.

I agree with you and would add that every draft is different because every draft class is a bit different.

For instance, when we picked Marcel Dareus I cautioned that the downside was that there were so many great defensive linemen in the draft that we could have traded down and gotten comparable value. That draft included Aldon Smith, JJ Watt, Robert Quinn, DaQuan Bowers, Adrain Clayborne, Cameron Jordan, Cameron Heyward, and Muhammad Wilkerson.

Arguably all of these guys were first round talents and most of them ended up going in the first round. Wilkerson was taken near the end of the first round and he looks like a force.

My point is that this might be one of those exceptional years where no quarterback is worthy of a high first rounder AND there may be several QBs available in the late first or early second round.

The draft strategy has to be tailored to the draft class.

View PostCarolinaBill, on 22 November 2012 - 12:14 PM, said:

It goes back longer than you might think, 2nd rd qbs haves an appx. success rate of 33%, but if you dig even deeper, success rate is equivalent to being a consistent starter, not a playoff game winner, and certainly not a SB Winner.  The place to get QBs, if you want SUSTAINED success, is the 1st rd.  It's a 50/50 shot, and the Scouting Dept has to be on point, but thats the answer, first rd or bust (slight pun intended).

one of the only recent exceptions of course would be Drew Brees, who if you recall, was not exactly lighting it up with SD before he was allowed to leave for nothing VIA free agency (due to a shoulder injury that could've ending his then sputtering career).

Remember though that Drew Brees was a Pro Bowl QB in San Diego.

#12 Saint Doug

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Posted 22 November 2012 - 02:04 PM

View PostSan Jose Bills Fan, on 22 November 2012 - 01:34 PM, said:



I agree with you and would add that every draft is different because every draft class is a bit different.

For instance, when we picked Marcel Dareus I cautioned that the downside was that there were so many great defensive linemen in the draft that we could have traded down and gotten comparable value. That draft included Aldon Smith, JJ Watt, Robert Quinn, DaQuan Bowers, Adrain Clayborne, Cameron Jordan, Cameron Heyward, and Muhammad Wilkerson.

Arguably all of these guys were first round talents and most of them ended up going in the first round. Wilkerson was taken near the end of the first round and he looks like a force.

My point is that this might be one of those exceptional years where no quarterback is worthy of a high first rounder AND there may be several QBs available in the late first or early second round.

The draft strategy has to be tailored to the draft class.



Remember though that Drew Brees was a Pro Bowl QB in San Diego.

Correct. Brees was lighting it up in SD before he left, but only his last year there. All the other years he sucked enough for them to draft Rivers. It is a very good story and a reason why teams shouldn't be so quick to give up on their QB (unless they are a proven journeyman QB who was a former 7th round pick).

Edited by kas23, 22 November 2012 - 02:04 PM.


#13 Astrobot

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Posted 22 November 2012 - 02:45 PM

Let's look at the talent in RD1, and assume we draft 11th.
Geno Smith---won't be there
Tyler Wilson--63%, threw for over 3,600 yds, elite skillset, beat Mallet's #'s, great game mgr, when hit went 40 yds, can feel / adjust to press. Athletic enough to scramble.
Matt Barkley---61.5%, tough, accurate, smart, poised, short (6'2"). 102 TD's beat Leinart, great game mgr, less the scrambler
Collin Klein----55 pts vs top 15 defenses several times, 4 rush TD, 2 pass TD vs WVU, command, pinpoint accuracy, not pretty mech, but presence. Heisman candidate.

I'd take Wilson in RD1, but only if Te'O isn't there.
I'd take several players over Barkley and Klein.

Can't get Fitz more WR's in the draft; I don't like too many early receivers in this class. Even Terrance Williams wouldn't be a choice IMHO. I'd look at FA for receivers, and draft a WR on or after RD4, depending on some Juniors who may declare. My bet would be a Mike Shanahan (Pittsburgh) .

You could get another TE weapon for Fitz; Eifert won't be there in RD2. Ertz and Toilolo are the top 2 receiving TE's, but Ertz is a Junior. Toilolo will be drafted as a reach  in RD2, too early I think.

#14 Section242

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Posted 22 November 2012 - 03:39 PM

Colin Klein won't be taken til the 3rd day.  Part of the reason that taking a QB after the first rd doesn't work is because they're not going to get the opportunity a guy taken in the first rd will get.  Look at Jimmy Clausen.  Drew Brees was taken 32nd which now is a first rd pick.

#15 uncle flap

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Posted 22 November 2012 - 09:35 PM

Astro, what do you think about Tyler Wilson's apparent propensity to be concussed? Red flag?

#16 mjt328

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Posted 22 November 2012 - 09:55 PM

A few years ago, I started a study on this exact topic.  I went all the way back to the year 1978 to see how successful players were, based on the round they were drafted.

For quarterbacks, there was a HUGE downward trend in success outside of the Top 10 - and especially outside of the first round.  Finding even a solid starter after the second round was next to impossible.

In fact, over the course of 27 years, I could only find TWO great quarterbacks that were drafted in the second round.  Drew Brees and Brett Favre.  On top of that, Brees was drafted #32 and Favre was drafted #33.  So they barely slipped out of the first round.  During the same period, there were also only a handful of solid starters out of the second round.  Jake Plummer, Randall Cunningham, Boomer Esiason and Neil Lomax.

The number of successful players continued to drop each round.


Based on the results of my study, I came to a very strong conclusion:

I've heard many critics say the draft is a complete "crap shoot" and is nothing more than luck.  This is simply not true.  In reality, scouts generally have a good idea where the top talent is at - and those players generally get taken at the top of the draft.

Sure, there are always the Ryan Leafs and Jamarcus Russells that never realize their potential and go down in history as incredible draft busts.  And then there is Tom Brady, a Hall of Famer taken in the 6th round that somehow everyone missed.  But when you look at the numbers - the VAST majority of successful quarterbacks (and players in general) are taken in the first round.  And finding a successful quarterback in the mid to late rounds is harder than finding a needle in a haystack.

Edited by mjt328, 22 November 2012 - 09:56 PM.


#17 T master

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Posted 22 November 2012 - 10:42 PM

Tyler Wilson --- As Stevie Johnson says Nough said !!!

#18 BillsVet

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Posted 22 November 2012 - 10:58 PM

View PostRob, on 22 November 2012 - 12:43 PM, said:

Top 5 pick doesn't guarantee a home run.

If you're looking for guarantees, there are only two.  And everyone knows what they are.  

Good GM's rarely draft in the top 5, and when they do the pick is a difference maker.  Nix is more than likely will need to trade up get his guy at QB, but if people truly have faith in him they won't doubt his prowess to get the right QB.

#19 CarolinaBill

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Posted 22 November 2012 - 11:14 PM

View PostT master, on 22 November 2012 - 10:42 PM, said:

Tyler Wilson --- As Stevie Johnson says Nough said !!!
beware the petrino QB....

#20 San Jose Bills Fan

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Posted 22 November 2012 - 11:17 PM

View Postmjt328, on 22 November 2012 - 09:55 PM, said:

A few years ago, I started a study on this exact topic.  I went all the way back to the year 1978 to see how successful players were, based on the round they were drafted.

For quarterbacks, there was a HUGE downward trend in success outside of the Top 10

That's an encouraging fact if you're Blaine Gabbert.

Seriously though, it's been pointed out in this thread that the higher premium placed on QBs causing them to become overdrafted may have changed some of these "rules of thumb."

Wadya think of that hypothesis?