Jump to content


Whats the probability of missing the playoffs 13 straight years?


  • Please log in to reply
34 replies to this topic

#1 Estro

Estro

    RFA

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 1,262 posts

Posted 30 November 2012 - 01:17 AM

.22%

That's right there's a decimal point in there.  Let me bold it in case you missed it:

.22%

In other words, a 1 in 451 chance of that happening......meaning if a team played 451 seasons they should experience a playoff drought like we have precisely once.

This stat tells you everything you need to know about what the Bills fans have had to endure these last 13 years.  It's not just bad luck, there is something seriously wrong with this franchise, and it's an absolute embarrassment.

I'm sure Ralph's not, but if this was an entity I owned, I'd be utterly embarrassed.  A couple of more seasons with no playoffs and we'll be getting into powerball odds territory.

Total and absolute ineptitude.

Edited by Estro, 30 November 2012 - 01:19 AM.


#2 NewEra

NewEra

    I don't "know", I "think"

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,583 posts

Posted 30 November 2012 - 01:32 AM

Sad

#3 eSJayDee

eSJayDee

    Put me in coach

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,207 posts

Posted 30 November 2012 - 02:23 AM

Where/how'd you come up w/ that #?
If you assume a random chance of any team making the playoffs & each year 6 of 16 make it, I reckon that comes out to 2.9e-6 or .00029%.
Granted, making the playoffs is not entirely random, but I'm curious how you came up w/ your #s?

#4 Jim in Anchorage

Jim in Anchorage

    All Pro

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,233 posts

Posted 30 November 2012 - 02:27 AM

For the Bills 100%

#5 Awwufelloff

Awwufelloff

    Rookie

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 332 posts

Posted 30 November 2012 - 02:41 AM

NFL is extremely difficult to make playoffs compared to hockey. 32 teams and only 12 make it each year. That is 20 teams or 63% of teams do not make the playoffs each year. In the NHL there are 30 teams and 16 make it so only 47% miss. A playoff drought in the NFL is much easier to achieve then the NHL.

Edited by Awwufelloff, 30 November 2012 - 02:41 AM.


#6 Estro

Estro

    RFA

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 1,262 posts

Posted 30 November 2012 - 03:11 AM

View PosteSJayDee, on 30 November 2012 - 02:23 AM, said:

Where/how'd you come up w/ that #?
If you assume a random chance of any team making the playoffs & each year 6 of 16 make it, I reckon that comes out to 2.9e-6 or .00029%.
Granted, making the playoffs is not entirely random, but I'm curious how you came up w/ your #s?

The chances of not making the playoffs are 5 out of 8 or .625.  So you simply multiply .625 together 13 times which gives you approximately .0022.  In order to turn that into a percentage you must multiply the final decimal by 100 leaving you with .22%

And making the playoffs is totally random on a year to year basis because each team is operating under the same salary cap.  Whether or not every team is run as effectively is obvious given the Bills run the last 13 years, but every team is competing with the same resources.

View PostAwwufelloff, on 30 November 2012 - 02:41 AM, said:

NFL is extremely difficult to make playoffs compared to hockey. 32 teams and only 12 make it each year. That is 20 teams or 63% of teams do not make the playoffs each year. In the NHL there are 30 teams and 16 make it so only 47% miss. A playoff drought in the NFL is much easier to achieve then the NHL.

And then theres MLB where its even harder to make the playoffs.  I like the nfl at 12 out of 32 teams make it.  No way should more teams make the playoffs then not, like the NHL does it.  Just doesnt seem right.

Edited by Estro, 30 November 2012 - 03:07 AM.


#7 eSJayDee

eSJayDee

    Put me in coach

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,207 posts

Posted 30 November 2012 - 03:23 AM

Quote

The chances of not making the playoffs are 5 out of 8 or .625.  So you simply multiply .625 together 13 times which gives you approximately .0022.  In order to turn that into a percentage you must multiply the final decimal by 100 leaving you with .22%

Oops.  My bad. I was laying in bed & realized my error.  I computed the chance of making the playoffs 13 yrs straight.  DOH.  You're correct sorry.

#8 Buffalo Barbarian

Buffalo Barbarian

    BERSERKER

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 8,747 posts

Posted 30 November 2012 - 03:48 AM

shouldn't it be the probability of making the playoffs?

As far as missing goes it's 100%

didn't the Cardinals miss the playoffs for over 50 years?

#9 nucci

nucci

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,933 posts

Posted 30 November 2012 - 05:42 AM

Probably similar to losing 4 SuperBowls in a row.

#10 bowery4

bowery4

    "‘Chance favors the prepared mind‘’

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,375 posts

Posted 30 November 2012 - 06:12 AM

Seems for the Bills it is a bit higher than that.

#11 DGW54321

DGW54321

    UDFA

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 1,145 posts

Posted 30 November 2012 - 06:15 AM

We did it!!!  We beat the odds!!  Great job Ralph!  Oh....wait.

Edited by DGW54321, 30 November 2012 - 06:17 AM.


#12 halijack

halijack

    Practice Squad

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 107 posts

Posted 30 November 2012 - 06:19 AM

I've been saying this for a few years... what the bills have done is harder to do than just make the playoffs once!

Edited by halijack, 30 November 2012 - 06:20 AM.


#13 Niagara Bill

Niagara Bill

    100% Canadian

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,576 posts

Posted 30 November 2012 - 06:25 AM

View PosteSJayDee, on 30 November 2012 - 03:23 AM, said:

Oops.  My bad. I was laying in bed & realized my error.  I computed the chance of making the playoffs 13 yrs straight.  DOH.  You're correct sorry.
Regardless of the mistake...the odds are incredible...but probability logic should also say that we can now win the SB 4 times in the next 10 years to off set this imbalance...I look forward to that

#14 BillsFan-4-Ever

BillsFan-4-Ever

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,604 posts

Posted 30 November 2012 - 07:49 AM

playing with the computer in bed was your first mistake.

#15 JR in Pittsburgh

JR in Pittsburgh

    No Mercy

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 11,352 posts

Posted 30 November 2012 - 07:55 AM

So you're saying there is a chance?

#16 Homey D. Clown

Homey D. Clown

    Circle the Wagons Jim!

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 1,424 posts

Posted 30 November 2012 - 09:18 AM

It is statistically harder to suck this bad for this long than to have an occasional good season.  I've done the math...

#17 All_Pro_Bills

All_Pro_Bills

    RFA

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 513 posts

Posted 30 November 2012 - 09:34 AM

The key point of the low probability of missing the playoffs 13 straight seasons is that you've got to really work at it to achieve that level of futility.  You're doing things that are so fundamentally in opposition to the factors supporting random chance that they're overriding the laws of statistics.  No need to reharsh those 'factors' since we all know pretty much what they are anyway.  The only people that don't seem to be aware of them are the decision makers at OBD..

#18 boltuprite

boltuprite

    Practice Squad

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 227 posts

Posted 30 November 2012 - 09:46 AM

"these guys are the suckiest bunch of sucks who ever sucked"


Homer J. Simpson

#19 NoSaint

NoSaint

    Hall of Famer

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 19,712 posts

Posted 30 November 2012 - 09:51 AM

these certainly arent random independent events though - with personnel staying the same, or GMs blowing things up - losing tends to raise the probability of future losing. a bad team is more likely to stay bad.

its still a shockingly low number im sure.

#20 J-E-T-S-L-O-L

J-E-T-S-L-O-L

    Probation

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 48 posts

Posted 30 November 2012 - 03:19 PM

Making the playoffs 5 years in a row, has a 0.27%, which is almost the same odds. And Im sure that has been done numerous times. Colts, Eagles, Ravens and Seahawks have done it since 2000. Pats will reach their 4th in row for the second time in 9 years. A one year miss in between when Brady was hurt, and they still got an 11-5 record, which is a playoff spot any other year. The Bills is a poorly run franchise. But they probably would have made the playoffs by now, if the where in any other division besides AFC East and AFC North.