34 replies to this topic

[Estro]

.22%

That's right there's a decimal point in there.  Let me bold it in case you missed it:

.22%

In other words, a 1 in 451 chance of that happening......meaning if a team played 451 seasons they should experience a playoff drought like we have precisely once.

This stat tells you everything you need to know about what the Bills fans have had to endure these last 13 years.  It's not just bad luck, there is something seriously wrong with this franchise, and it's an absolute embarrassment.

I'm sure Ralph's not, but if this was an entity I owned, I'd be utterly embarrassed.  A couple of more seasons with no playoffs and we'll be getting into powerball odds territory.

Total and absolute ineptitude.

Edited by Estro, 30 November 2012 - 01:19 AM.

[NewEra]

Sad

[eSJayDee]

Where/how'd you come up w/ that #?
If you assume a random chance of any team making the playoffs & each year 6 of 16 make it, I reckon that comes out to 2.9e-6 or .00029%.
Granted, making the playoffs is not entirely random, but I'm curious how you came up w/ your #s?

[Jim in Anchorage]

For the Bills 100%

[Awwufelloff]

NFL is extremely difficult to make playoffs compared to hockey. 32 teams and only 12 make it each year. That is 20 teams or 63% of teams do not make the playoffs each year. In the NHL there are 30 teams and 16 make it so only 47% miss. A playoff drought in the NFL is much easier to achieve then the NHL.

Edited by Awwufelloff, 30 November 2012 - 02:41 AM.

[Estro]

eSJayDee, on 30 November 2012 - 02:23 AM, said:

Where/how'd you come up w/ that #?
If you assume a random chance of any team making the playoffs & each year 6 of 16 make it, I reckon that comes out to 2.9e-6 or .00029%.
Granted, making the playoffs is not entirely random, but I'm curious how you came up w/ your #s?

The chances of not making the playoffs are 5 out of 8 or .625.  So you simply multiply .625 together 13 times which gives you approximately .0022.  In order to turn that into a percentage you must multiply the final decimal by 100 leaving you with .22%

And making the playoffs is totally random on a year to year basis because each team is operating under the same salary cap.  Whether or not every team is run as effectively is obvious given the Bills run the last 13 years, but every team is competing with the same resources.

Awwufelloff, on 30 November 2012 - 02:41 AM, said:

NFL is extremely difficult to make playoffs compared to hockey. 32 teams and only 12 make it each year. That is 20 teams or 63% of teams do not make the playoffs each year. In the NHL there are 30 teams and 16 make it so only 47% miss. A playoff drought in the NFL is much easier to achieve then the NHL.

And then theres MLB where its even harder to make the playoffs.  I like the nfl at 12 out of 32 teams make it.  No way should more teams make the playoffs then not, like the NHL does it.  Just doesnt seem right.

Edited by Estro, 30 November 2012 - 03:07 AM.

[eSJayDee]

Quote

The chances of not making the playoffs are 5 out of 8 or .625.  So you simply multiply .625 together 13 times which gives you approximately .0022.  In order to turn that into a percentage you must multiply the final decimal by 100 leaving you with .22%

Oops.  My bad. I was laying in bed & realized my error.  I computed the chance of making the playoffs 13 yrs straight.  DOH.  You're correct sorry.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

shouldn't it be the probability of making the playoffs?

As far as missing goes it's 100%

didn't the Cardinals miss the playoffs for over 50 years?

[nucci]

Probably similar to losing 4 SuperBowls in a row.

[bowery4]

Seems for the Bills it is a bit higher than that.

[DGW54321]

We did it!!!  We beat the odds!!  Great job Ralph!  Oh....wait.

Edited by DGW54321, 30 November 2012 - 06:17 AM.

[halijack]

I've been saying this for a few years... what the bills have done is harder to do than just make the playoffs once!

Edited by halijack, 30 November 2012 - 06:20 AM.

[Niagara Bill]

eSJayDee, on 30 November 2012 - 03:23 AM, said:

Oops.  My bad. I was laying in bed & realized my error.  I computed the chance of making the playoffs 13 yrs straight.  DOH.  You're correct sorry.

Regardless of the mistake...the odds are incredible...but probability logic should also say that we can now win the SB 4 times in the next 10 years to off set this imbalance...I look forward to that

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

playing with the computer in bed was your first mistake.

[JR in Pittsburgh]

So you're saying there is a chance?

[Homey D. Clown]

It is statistically harder to suck this bad for this long than to have an occasional good season.  I've done the math...

[All_Pro_Bills]

The key point of the low probability of missing the playoffs 13 straight seasons is that you've got to really work at it to achieve that level of futility.  You're doing things that are so fundamentally in opposition to the factors supporting random chance that they're overriding the laws of statistics.  No need to reharsh those 'factors' since we all know pretty much what they are anyway.  The only people that don't seem to be aware of them are the decision makers at OBD..

[boltuprite]

"these guys are the suckiest bunch of sucks who ever sucked"


Homer J. Simpson

[NoSaint]

these certainly arent random independent events though - with personnel staying the same, or GMs blowing things up - losing tends to raise the probability of future losing. a bad team is more likely to stay bad.

its still a shockingly low number im sure.

[J-E-T-S-L-O-L]

Making the playoffs 5 years in a row, has a 0.27%, which is almost the same odds. And Im sure that has been done numerous times. Colts, Eagles, Ravens and Seahawks have done it since 2000. Pats will reach their 4th in row for the second time in 9 years. A one year miss in between when Brady was hurt, and they still got an 11-5 record, which is a playoff spot any other year. The Bills is a poorly run franchise. But they probably would have made the playoffs by now, if the where in any other division besides AFC East and AFC North.