86 replies to this topic

[djp14150]

I am starting a playoff scenario thread to talk about the playoff scenarios as of now.


tie-breaking procedures.

First sort teams within division before playoff spots determined.

• Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
  
• Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
  
• Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
  
• Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  
• Strength of victory.
  
• Strength of schedule.
  
• Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
  
• Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
  
• Best net points in common games.
  
• Best net points in all games.
  
• Best net touchdowns in all games.
  
• Coin toss

These sort division.  For wild cadr from different divisions 2does not apply and #4 comes before #3.

AFC

New England has clinched East
Denver has clinched the West

Houston's magic number is 2 for division title...any combination of Houston wins and Indy loses.
Baltimore can clinch the division with a win and loses by PIT and CIN .


For the Wild Card slots

Indy 8-4
PIT, CIN 7-5
BUF, MIA, NYJ 5-7

MIA beat CIN,, PIt beat NYJ, IND beat BUF and MIA, NYJ beat IND

For Buffalo to make the wild card they need to finish 4-0, have CIN and PIT go 2-2  then it will come down to conference record and common opponents.   Buffalo against NFC would go 3-1, PIT currently 3-0, CIN currently 2-0.    With common games Buffalo would edge CIN 3-2 vs 5-0. Buf and Pit tie at 3-2 which would put the tiebreakers into strength of victory which Pittsburgh will likely be ahead.

PIT:   sd, at dal, cin. cle
CIN:  dal, at phl, at pit, balt


NFC


in case you were wondering...the SF tie is viewed as a half win and a half loss so they effectivly their record is 8.5-3.5 instead of 8-3-1 this season so far.


Atlanta has clinched South...can clinch #1 with W and CHI, GB, Giants and SF ALL lose once.
Green Bay leads North
Giants lead East
San Fran leads West

For wild card

Chicago 8-4
Seattle 7-5
DAL, TB, MIn 6-6
WAS 5-6
NO 5-7

SEA beat CHI, WAS beat DAL, NO., DAL& WAS beat TB, MIN  DAL still plays WAs and NO.

If CHI beats MIN next week Chicago will finish ahead of Minnesota.   Thus this makes Minnesota's chances very difficult.

Giants have one of the more difficult schedules left having to play( NO, at ATL, at BAL, PHL) so If WAS beats NYG tomorrow night I wouldnt be surprised if DAL-WAS week 17 is for the division.

[curitiba]

Good Work!

However, are you sure a PLAYOFF SCENARIO is needed on a BILLS WEBSITE?

[BuffaloWings]

Really would have been nice if the Ravens and Chargers held on yesterday....

Edited by BuffaloWings, 03 December 2012 - 08:25 AM.

[Tu-Toned]

I saw another article that said if we win out and both Pitt and Cince lose two, we are in?
Is this correct? Because if it is, it is cetainly doable, the win out part will be the toughest
of the three.

Edited by Tu-Toned, 03 December 2012 - 08:26 AM.

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

once more since it is a scenario  thread

http://espn.go.com/n...layoffs/machine
Have at it.

I have the Bills as the 6th seed IF they win out and the other scenarios I picked come to fruition.

Edited by BillsFan-4-Ever, 03 December 2012 - 08:37 AM.

[C.Biscuit97]

BuffaloWings, on 03 December 2012 - 08:25 AM, said:

Really would have been nice if the Ravens and Chargers held on yesterday....

The Lions may have been the worse loss of all.  They completely melted down.  Luck is good but I really didn't come away from our game with them thinking they were anything special.  As awful as it is, what their coach is going through has really inspired them.  Obviously, we don't have much of a chance but a few losses yesterday would have been nice.  The Titans' loss was a killer.

P.S.  Cue someone to come here and piss on the optimism parade.

[Sisyphean Bills]

It's mathematically official.

http://www.sportsclu...st/Buffalo.html

The playoff drought gets extended one more year.

PS: Misunderstand the handy chart when I posted this.  Apparently, 0 means less than 1% and more than an actual 0.  So, there is still a chance!  Optimists can continue to hold their breath after all!

[C.Biscuit97]

Sisyphean Bills, on 03 December 2012 - 09:25 AM, said:

It's mathematically official.

http://www.sportsclu...st/Buffalo.html

The playoff drought gets extended one more year.

As much as you probably enjoyed posting that, it makes 0 sense.  If all those teams lose out and the Bills win out, they would be in.  Now there's no way in hell it will happen, but there's no way they can be eliminated yet unless I'm missing something.

[tennesseeboy]

PLAYOFFS????????  PLAYOFFS????????

[Sisyphean Bills]

C.Biscuit97, on 03 December 2012 - 09:50 AM, said:

As much as you probably enjoyed posting that, it makes 0 sense.  If all those teams lose out and the Bills win out, they would be in.  Now there's no way in hell it will happen, but there's no way they can be eliminated yet unless I'm missing something.

Actually, I thought they still had a slim chance as was a bit surprised when I saw the website.  But, thanks for being a dick.

[Big C]

C.Biscuit97, on 03 December 2012 - 09:50 AM, said:

As much as you probably enjoyed posting that, it makes 0 sense.  If all those teams lose out and the Bills win out, they would be in.  Now there's no way in hell it will happen, but there's no way they can be eliminated yet unless I'm missing something.

If you go to the main page, the only two teams that are officially out of contention are the Chiefs and Jags. There also has to be some sort of error, though, because there's no way Oakland has a better chance than we do.

[C.Biscuit97]

Sisyphean Bills, on 03 December 2012 - 09:53 AM, said:

Actually, I thought they still had a slim chance as was a bit surprised when I saw the website.  But, thanks for being a dick.

Ha.  I just know you seem to take pleasure in killing optimism.  That's why you just can't believe everything you read.  Elvis is kicking it in Aruba with Tupac.

[Sisyphean Bills]

Big C, on 03 December 2012 - 09:53 AM, said:

If you go to the main page, the only two teams that are officially out of contention are the Chiefs and Jags. There also has to be some sort of error, though, because there's no way Oakland has a better chance than we do.

The Bills do have a chance to finish 5th or 6th in the conference, but those odds are less than 1%.  So, while there is a chance (and we wouldn't want the optimists flag bearer to stop waving his flag now), it's not a reasonable one.

[Fezmid]

Sisyphean Bills, on 03 December 2012 - 10:12 AM, said:

So, while there is a chance (and we wouldn't want the optimists flag bearer to stop waving his flag now), it's not a reasonable one.

Tell that to the Powerball winners in MO and AZ.

[curitiba]

You optimistic dudes do know who our head coach and starting QB are right?

Let alone the fact Pitt, Indy and Cincy all made 4rth quarter comebacks yesterday!

Stick a fork in it...The Bills are done for 2012.


The team is getting better.. Next year the defense will start out good from the gates and we will have a better shot.

Cheers,

Cur

[Sisyphean Bills]

Fezmid, on 03 December 2012 - 10:16 AM, said:

Tell that to the Powerball winners in MO and AZ.

If you are comfortable with a 1 in 175 million chance, I'm not stopping you from getting your celebration started.

[Billshank Redemption]

yea unfortunately seasons over, that being said if cinci and pitt wouldve lost yesterday like they shouldve because both the chargers and ravens blew it, the odds would look far more promising and we could actually do some damage. I guess after thinking about it I would just rather win out anyway and have some optimism going into next season and hopefully get a new qb and maybe coach.

[Billsrhody]

Tu-Toned, on 03 December 2012 - 08:26 AM, said:

I saw another article that said if we win out and both Pitt and Cince lose two, we are in?
Is this correct? Because if it is, it is cetainly doable, the win out part will be the toughest
of the three.

According to the playoff machine..

If we win out, but 1 of Pittsburgh's 2 losses come again the Cowboys (NFC), they would be in the playoffs. Basically we need Pittsburgh to lose 2 games against AFC opponents, then we would have the tie breaker.

We need Cincinnati to lose 1 of their 2 games against the AFC (they play PIT and BAL). If they go 2-2, but both their losses come against NFC opponents (DAL and PHI), they would have the tiebreaker against us.

Edited by Billsrhody, 03 December 2012 - 10:28 AM.

[Just in Atlanta]

I wish I never clicked this thread.

Now, I'm actually thinking playoffs, which is an unhealthy pastime given the previous 12 years.

[Luxy312]

Don't get me wrong here and assume that I'm not a Bills fan.  I am all the way and have been for the better part of 30 years.  However, we have seen this play out for the last 12 years in a row.  Either they start strong and lose a bunch of games at the back end of the season or they lose at the front and then make a push for 0.500 at the end.  Regardless, they play themselves right out of a draft pick.  It's really sad to me that it takes windy and rainy conditions for Gailey to realize that this team has a hell of a running game.  They finally give more carries to Spiller and Jackson than they give Fitz opportunities to throw.  The defense also showed up.  However, if you actually look at the last couple of games, they have been.  They've been limiting opposing rushers in YPC, which is what we had hoped to see from week 1.  Another mediocre season with mediocre coaching.