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Fitz / Gailey and some facts

We are crazy to start over...

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#1 rpcolosi

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 03:50 PM

It's been awhile since I've posted, but Bills fans are completely losing their mind with the "Fire Chan" "Fire Wannstedt" and "Bench Fitz" remarks. It's almost as if everyone has forgot where the Bills were less than 3 years ago. So, here is a little history lesson as well as some current stats/facts (This is for you specifically Jerry Sullivan and James Walker):

Where we were in 2009:
Offensively
1.) The last time our Offense was ranked better than 23 was in 2004, #7. Under Gailey we have been 28th, 14th, and currently sit 16th. That was 7 years straight of bottom 1/4 of the league in Offense reversed after Gailey's first season.

2.) The last time we had a QB throw for over 20 + TD in a season was Bledsoe in 04 and 06.  Fitz has now thrown 20+ TDs in 3 straight season. The last time a Bills QB threw 20+ TDs in back to back seasons was....

3.) 300yd passer: The Bills went almost 40+ games without a 300 yd passing game, which changed when Fitz relieved Trent and almost upset the Pats in Foxboro in 2010.

4.) Sacks -
Jauron-  2006: 40 2007: 26 2008: 24 2009: 32
Gailey - 2010: 27 2011: 29 2012: 31 (4 games to go)
There is some tangible evidence and improvement on D, however slight.

5.) Tight Ends (good and Bad): Until Coach Gailey, Buffalo hasn't had a TE catch more than 5 TD passes since my middle school days of Pete Metzelars. We hadn't had a relative TE since my HS days of Jay Riemersma. Under Coach Gailey we've actually turned the TE into a viable option. On the flip side, according to Football Outsiders, we are currently the #1 defense defending tight ends this season. This is against TEs such as Vernon Davis, Rob Gronkowski and Owen Daniels (all of whom played decently, not great, against us might I add). Under Coach Jauron we were consistently one of the worst teams defending TEs.
http://www.footballo...ats/teamdef2012

Case against Gailey/Stache:

Run Defense (obviously)
1.) In 2009, Jauron's last season, we were ranked 30th against the run at 156.3 ypg and 4.7 ypc (our #2 pass defense was obviously skewed because of the bad run D). In 2007 we were 22nd against the run, giving up 121.6 ypg and 4.3 ypc. In 2007 it was 25th against the run  at 4.4 ypc and 124.6 ypg. In 2006 we were 28th at 4.7 ypc and 140.9 ypg.
--- In 2010, our first year with Coach Gailey, we were dead last, 32nd against the run at 170 ypg and a torrid  4.8 ypc against. 2011, we were 28th at 4.8 ypc and 139 ypg. Currently, we are 30th at 4.9 ypc and 139.2 ypg.

Our run D was never great with Jauron, but it bottomed out with Gailey and George Edwards. If Wannstedt can continue to have this units ypg decrease the rest of the season, it will be a definite endorsement to stay the course with the 4-3 (and maybe get another MLB).

Case against Gailey/Fitz:
1.) Play Calling / untimely turnovers - Neither of these are easy to quantify. There is no stat for INTs when down by 4 in the 4th quarter. There is no stat to say "40+ runs/game leads to a W." All we have is fan opinion. Just like "clutch" it can't be quantified. Does fitz have a poor comeback record? Absolutely. Has our defense lost a fair number of games in the 4th quarter for him (ie: Tennessee this year)? You bet. Has Gailey blown some calls? You know it. Should he run more? No doubt.

But is the answer to fire them? Not a chance. Need proof? Look at a few current coaches who really struggled, didn't make the playoffs early on and who's fan bases wanted them canned - Marvin Lewis, Lovie Smith, Gary Kubiak. All 3 of them have teams in playoff contention. I won't go into history, but Buddy has been around enough. You don't blow it up every 3 years.

Where we are with Fitz?
1.) He is currently ranked? Right above Joe Flacco and right behind Phillip Rivers. He is sandwiched between a couple of 1st round picks. What do Bills fans want? There isn't an RG III or Luck in every class. You can't want a team to win and still have a shot at these players! When we were top 3, the best QB, Cam Newton, was gone before we had the option. Tanking the season is now how you progress. You develop a winning culture, and seeing as Fitz is better than 15 other QBs in the league right now, there aren't many better options out there. It should be noted he has better stats (completion %, TDs, INTs and Rating) than the following "Big Name" guys: Flacco, Palmer, Cutler, Eli, Bradford, Stafford, Vick, and Luck. Bills fans can't have it all. Fitz doesn't have the Yards per attempt of Luck (6.6 to 7.1) but he has fewer INTs and more TDs.


Bottom line - This team will be in far worse shape losing these 3. Buddy Nix is right - stay the course. Improve the Defense. Get a 2nd WR, draft better tackling LBs, stay healthy, and get better play from the young CBs. This team isn't far off. They just aren't going as fast as we fans want.

#2 KGun12TD

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 04:10 PM

So, you're saying going from complete crap to mediocre in three season is where we need to go or should be happy with? While what you presented here is good and all - THE BILLS are still at the bottom of the NFL after 13 seasons. It took Chan/Fitz/Wanny three years to make us mediocre! GREAT!

STATS! Really? Stats? NOT WINS? Stats? Really?

This is a great reason for me to continue to spend my money to see them play?

Fitz doesn't have a lot of what Luck has ---- WINS! That's what matters most.

PLEASE see Chan's winning percent in three seasons. PLEASE!

Garbage is what this is!

#3 Ray

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 04:13 PM

Despite those wanting to say Fitz is a back-up QB....that means 2/3 of the QB in the leage are back-up QBs.   He has been better than three guys the Bills used 1st rounddraft picks on as a Bills' QB (not better than Bledsoe obviously in Bledsoe's career but better Bills career than Bledsoe).
The offense has been MUCH better with Gailey and Fitz than it had been.   That's the obvious fact.   The problem is, it's still not good enough.  

But overall, a decent offensive team and certainly good enough to win had we had an even averafe defense and not the 30-32nd ranked defense over the past few years.

#4 ScottLaw

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 04:19 PM

View PostKGun12TD, on 03 December 2012 - 04:10 PM, said:

So, you're saying going from complete crap to mediocre in three season is where we need to go or should be happy with? While what you presented here is good and all - THE BILLS are still at the bottom of the NFL after 13 seasons. It took Chan/Fitz/Wanny three years to make us mediocre! GREAT!

STATS! Really? Stats? NOT WINS? Stats? Really?

This is a great reason for me to continue to spend my money to see them play?

Fitz doesn't have a lot of what Luck has ---- WINS! That's what matters most.

PLEASE see Chan's winning percent in three seasons. PLEASE!

Garbage is what this is!


Bingo.

It's like comparing human feces to bird feces. A little different but still ****.

#5 buffalover4life

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 04:20 PM

gailey has made our team exciting to watch many people did forget the days of Jauron. Gailey made a system that made our players as good as they can be and get our receivers open, I remember it seemed that our QBs on Jauron's teams could never find the open receiver.( was there open receivers?)

gailey and if the D keeps playing and growing the way that they are wanny can stick around.

with fitz you cant just say he throws touchdowns and forget about the touchdowns/firstdowns that he misses. wide open guys running down the field that he misses if he hit all of those this year our offense would be on another level and teams could not stack the box. That is what our fan base sees.

Edited by buffalover4life, 03 December 2012 - 04:21 PM.


#6 ScottLaw

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 04:23 PM

View Postbuffalover4life, on 03 December 2012 - 04:20 PM, said:

gailey has made our team exciting to watch many people did forget the days of Jauron. Gailey made a system that made our players as good as they can be and get our receivers open, I remember it seemed that our QBs on Jauron's teams could never find the open receiver.( was there open receivers?)

gailey and if the D keeps playing and growing the way that they are wanny can stick around.

with fitz you cant just say he throws touchdowns and forget about the touchdowns/firstdowns that he misses. wide open guys running down the field that he misses if he hit all of those this year our offense would be on another level and teams could not stack the box. That is what our fan base sees.

Its so exciting to watch Fitz throw 5 yard square ins 40 times a game!

This entire thread screams, "I love losing!"

Edited by ScottLaw, 03 December 2012 - 04:24 PM.


#7 Rob's House

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 04:27 PM

I agree with the OP. When Nix & Gailey took over it wasn't similar to Harbaugh coming to SF that just needed tweaking. It was an all out rebuild. Sure, a lot of the pieces were there, but a lot weren't. 7 of our opening day defensive starters, and 6 on offense (including Spiller), weren't even on the team. If the team closes out the season strong you definitely bring these guys back.

#8 buffalover4life

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 04:29 PM

View PostScottLaw, on 03 December 2012 - 04:23 PM, said:

Its so exciting to watch Fitz throw 5 yard square ins 40 times a game!

This entire thread screams, "I love losing!"

in 2009 we averaged 16.1 points a game.
we are now averaging 23.1 points a game.


in 2009 we averaged 273.9 ypg total offense ranked 30th
now we average 346 ypg.

yes more exciting.

Edited by buffalover4life, 03 December 2012 - 04:33 PM.


#9 KOKBILLS

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 04:34 PM

Yawn...

This attitude will certainly help Brandon move that inventory he's always talking about...Winning games though? Going to the Playoffs? Not so much...

#10 Luxy312

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 04:39 PM

Some good points raised.  I think a key point that people tend to forget is the turnover in starting personnel.  This team looks a lot different than the team did 3 years ago.  This is nothing like Harbaugh coming to San Francisco where almost everything was already good to go from a player perspective and he just needed to change attitude. You don't take a team like Buffalo, that didn't have the personnel to compete, and make them a playoff contender over night.  Regardless, Gailey has to get it under control as far as the play calling is concerned.  He's got to find more ways of doing what he did this last weekend in terms of getting both Spiller and Jackson the ball to give them opportunities to make plays and keep the offense on the field.  That will help the passing game as well as keep the defense fresh.  Most important in that regard is that I want to see this happen against the better teams.

#11 ScottLaw

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 04:41 PM

View Postbuffalover4life, on 03 December 2012 - 04:29 PM, said:

in 2009 we averaged 16.1 points a game.
we are now averaging 23.1 points a game.


in 2009 we averaged 273.9 ypg total offense ranked 30th
now we average 346 ypg.

yes more exciting.

In 2009 we won 7 games.

In 2012 we are on pace to win 7 games.

Yes, we still suck.

Its this mentality that makes Russ Brandons job soooo easy every god damn year. A lot of Bills fans are clueless.

Edited by ScottLaw, 03 December 2012 - 04:43 PM.


#12 FireChan

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 04:41 PM

View PostKGun12TD, on 03 December 2012 - 04:10 PM, said:

So, you're saying going from complete crap to mediocre in three season is where we need to go or should be happy with? While what you presented here is good and all - THE BILLS are still at the bottom of the NFL after 13 seasons. It took Chan/Fitz/Wanny three years to make us mediocre! GREAT!

STATS! Really? Stats? NOT WINS? Stats? Really?

This is a great reason for me to continue to spend my money to see them play?

Fitz doesn't have a lot of what Luck has ---- WINS! That's what matters most.

PLEASE see Chan's winning percent in three seasons. PLEASE!

Garbage is what this is!

It's called rebuilding.  How many draft picks do we still have on our team since 2000.  You call for everyone's head, and that's 3 more years of certain mediocrity where we will be bound to lose some of the talent we already amassed.

#13 BillsVet

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 04:43 PM

Dick Jauron/Perry Fewell: 27-37 (06-09) with Marv Levy and Russ Brandon the GM's.
Chan Gailey: 15-29 (10-present) with Buddy Nix leading the front office.

Is there anything else that matters?  And why after 2+ seasons rebuilding can this franchise not win more than 35% of their games?

#14 ScottLaw

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 04:44 PM

View PostFireChan, on 03 December 2012 - 04:41 PM, said:

It's called rebuilding.  How many draft picks do we still have on our team since 2000.  You call for everyone's head, and that's 3 more years of certain mediocrity where we will be bound to lose some of the talent we already amassed.

Who calling for everyones head?

Simply get a new coaching staff in here thats got a clue how to win football games. The 49ers are a prime example of this.

#15 KGun12TD

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 04:49 PM

I love EXCITING football! Hmmm, please give me some more exciting football! Gosh, I don't know what I will do with myself right now...we are so exciting!

That Chan Gailey, he is such an exciting coach! He's got our beloved Bills as exciting as ever!

Let's see all the "FIRST season with new team" coaches:

Jeff Fisher - ONE season so far is 5-6-1 (with a freakin competitive team) now that's EXCITING!
Joe Philbin is 5-7 - Barely any talent on the Dolphins
Bruce Arians/Pagano - 8-4 (they were supposed to be a rebuilding team)

and for good measure:

SAINTS - No Coach is 5-7
Seattle - 7-5 and 2nd year coach still better and EXCITING!

I AM SO EXCITED about Chan...(insert SARCASM)

View PostScottLaw, on 03 December 2012 - 04:44 PM, said:

Who calling for everyones head?

Simply get a new coaching staff in here thats got a clue how to win football games. The 49ers are a prime example of this.

BINGO! = right back at ya bro...I think people are just missing the point...

#16 bananathumb

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 04:50 PM

Glad some idiots are happy. Keep buying those tickets. Ralph appreciares you.

#17 Mr. WEO

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 04:53 PM

View Postrpcolosi, on 03 December 2012 - 03:50 PM, said:

Bottom line - This team will be in far worse shape losing these 3. Buddy Nix is right - stay the course. Improve the Defense. Get a 2nd WR, draft better tackling LBs, stay healthy, and get better play from the young CBs. This team isn't far off. They just aren't going as fast as we fans want.

I can sympathize with your Fitz sympathy.  I still am holding on!

But Nix?Gailey have whiffed on every major staffing decision so far.  The defense still blows.  The offense may be "more exciting", to us Bills fans anyway, but it isn't producing the wins and Gailey still makes strange game plans and game day decisions.

Simply put, 3 years into the Chan/Buddy experiment, we are no better than we were.  We are still a team that can beat teams that are worse than us, in fact that is Chan's entire resume.

How can you know we would be "far worse shape without these three"?  Strange comment to make.

Edited by Mr. WEO, 03 December 2012 - 04:55 PM.


#18 billsfan11

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 04:54 PM

we do need an upgrade on fitz and gailey but heres the reality. the QB class for 2013 is weak and no good head coach wants to come to buffalo. everyone always says lets take a chance on a qb in the first round well remember when we did in 2004 with jp losman? if there is no qb you are confident in dont take him and as bad as this sounds, try to draft a qb in the 2nd-4th round and start fitz next year and have the young QB learn under for a year

#19 Mr. WEO

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 04:55 PM

View PostFireChan, on 03 December 2012 - 04:41 PM, said:

It's called rebuilding.  How many draft picks do we still have on our team since 2000.  You call for everyone's head, and that's 3 more years of certain mediocrity where we will be bound to lose some of the talent we already amassed.

Jeez, how many do we have still on the team since 2009?

#20 billsfan11

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Posted 03 December 2012 - 04:58 PM

View PostFireChan, on 03 December 2012 - 04:41 PM, said:

It's called rebuilding.  How many draft picks do we still have on our team since 2000.  You call for everyone's head, and that's 3 more years of certain mediocrity where we will be bound to lose some of the talent we already amassed.

i agree chan is not a good coach but who do you want for next year? no good coach is going to come to buffalo