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Refs playing favorites?


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#1 Drop Kick Flutie

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 01:57 PM

http://msn.foxsports...avorites-092911
Roughing the passer penalties per 100 dropbacks
R. Fitzpatrick 0.91

T. Brady 0.16


Fitz gets much more calls for him contrary to perception.

Edited by Drop Kick Flutie, 05 December 2012 - 01:59 PM.


#2 Fixxxer

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 02:10 PM

How many holding penalties on the Patriots? The DL is never close enough to hit Brady, legally or not.

#3 brenty

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 02:11 PM

who cares

#4 Cash

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 02:13 PM

It's a nice idea, but not really a useful comparison.  Brady's is very low by default because he rarely gets hit, due to a combination of good O-line play and Brady being very good at playing QB.  Vick's is high by default because he gets creamed a lot, due to a combination of terrible O-line play and Vick's play style.  Looking at roughing the passer penalties drawn per QB hit taken would be a good start to analyzing whether there's biased officiating or not.  (Hint:  as long as the refs are human, there will be bias in their officiating, but it might be really small.)

Still, thanks for posting.  And for the record, I don't think Fitzpatrick gets jobbed at all, but I do think Brady gets outrageous calls that most other QBs don't get.

#5 mountainwampus

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 02:15 PM

Typical Fox news. These numbers are BS. What is the sampling size? Are they factoring in Brady's entire career or just a few games where he didn't get hit? Brady would be at the top of this list if it weren't based on Fox's selective mathematics.

#6 Drop Kick Flutie

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 02:20 PM

View PostFixxxer, on 05 December 2012 - 02:10 PM, said:

How many holding penalties on the Patriots? The DL is never close enough to hit Brady, legally or not.
Last year the pats had 18 offensive holding penalties, above league average.

View PostCash, on 05 December 2012 - 02:13 PM, said:

It's a nice idea, but not really a useful comparison.  Brady's is very low by default because he rarely gets hit, due to a combination of good O-line play and Brady being very good at playing QB.  Vick's is high by default because he gets creamed a lot, due to a combination of terrible O-line play and Vick's play style.  Looking at roughing the passer penalties drawn per QB hit taken would be a good start to analyzing whether there's biased officiating or not.  (Hint:  as long as the refs are human, there will be bias in their officiating, but it might be really small.)

Still, thanks for posting.  And for the record, I don't think Fitzpatrick gets jobbed at all, but I do think Brady gets outrageous calls that most other QBs don't get.
Vick gets hit a lot on runs, but they are not considered pass attempt because the rules are different for hits.

View Postmountainwampus, on 05 December 2012 - 02:15 PM, said:

Typical Fox news. These numbers are BS. What is the sampling size? Are they factoring in Brady's entire career or just a few games where he didn't get hit? Brady would be at the top of this list if it weren't based on Fox's selective mathematics.
Fox Sports =/= Fox News, this was a league wide, I think it is 2010 stats.

#7 Mr. WEO

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 02:23 PM

View PostCash, on 05 December 2012 - 02:13 PM, said:

It's a nice idea, but not really a useful comparison.  Brady's is very low by default because he rarely gets hit, due to a combination of good O-line play and Brady being very good at playing QB.  Vick's is high by default because he gets creamed a lot, due to a combination of terrible O-line play and Vick's play style.  Looking at roughing the passer penalties drawn per QB hit taken would be a good start to analyzing whether there's biased officiating or not.  (Hint:  as long as the refs are human, there will be bias in their officiating, but it might be really small.)

Still, thanks for posting.  And for the record, I don't think Fitzpatrick gets jobbed at all, but I do think Brady gets outrageous calls that most other QBs don't get.

For Brady, your starting at 1 call for 625 dropbacks.  He surely took a lot of hits on 625 dropbacks.  Only 1 call.

#8 BuffOrange

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 02:31 PM

I've always wanted to see Pass Interference #'s on the teams that are winning vs losing.  Seems like you're 10x more likely to get a call when you're losing.
I swear the PI that ended the Indy game never gets called against the team that's trying to get the ball back.  Now if they were trying to tie the game or something I'd expect it 100%.

#9 Mango

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 02:56 PM

This is mostly because as much as we like to tout our new line it is quite average. Fitz is getting mauled a lot because he has less protection. Brady simply has more time.

A better stat would be percentage of contacts to qb are flagged

#10 RealityCheck

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 03:04 PM

That is a ridiculous way to claim that there is no bias on the roughing the passer calls. His math does not support that bogus assumption and it is insulting that he is selling it as valid. Based on the rules he outlines which dictate what qualifies as a LEGITIMATE roughing the passer call/non-call that alone is the determining factor in evaluating bias, if there is any. Where are his numbers that show whether these calls/non-calls are legitimate in the first place? Absolutely nothing definitive can be derived from the variables he uses, roughing calls for every 100 pass attempts, just ridiculous. Correct/incorrect calls begin and end there when evaluating refs and he conspicuously does not address that while throwing ambiguous math around to distract from the real question. The man has a future in politics/marketing/PR work.

#11 The Wiz

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 04:29 PM

The math doesn't equate when the sampling is completely random like that.  It might be per 100 drop backs but Brady will likely end up with 150 more pass attempts than Fitz at the end of the season so unless they are throwing a flag for it at least twice a game (for Brady) the numbers will never match up.

Basically it's the same thing as me saying 90% of the time I drink I get drunk compared to my wife who only gets drunk 5% of the time.  Why? Because I consume more beer.

Edited by The Wiz, 05 December 2012 - 04:32 PM.


#12 RyanC883

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 04:48 PM

View Postmountainwampus, on 05 December 2012 - 02:15 PM, said:

Typical Fox news. These numbers are BS. What is the sampling size? Are they factoring in Brady's entire career or just a few games where he didn't get hit? Brady would be at the top of this list if it weren't based on Fox's selective mathematics.

The great Fox News conspiracy to cook the numbers in Brady's favor.  Really?!?!? :flirt:   If you read the article,  you'd see that they took "Statistics from the 2010 season, combined with the first three weeks of the 2011 season," into account.  I'm sure they spent hours choosing those to make Brady look good.  

View PostMango, on 05 December 2012 - 02:56 PM, said:

This is mostly because as much as we like to tout our new line it is quite average. Fitz is getting mauled a lot because he has less protection. Brady simply has more time.

A better stat would be percentage of contacts to qb are flagged

This is true. !

#13 Drop Kick Flutie

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 04:51 PM

View PostThe Wiz, on 05 December 2012 - 04:29 PM, said:

The math doesn't equate when the sampling is completely random like that.  It might be per 100 drop backs but Brady will likely end up with 150 more pass attempts than Fitz at the end of the season so unless they are throwing a flag for it at least twice a game (for Brady) the numbers will never match up.

Basically it's the same thing as me saying 90% of the time I drink I get drunk compared to my wife who only gets drunk 5% of the time.  Why? Because I consume more beer.

If someone is dropping back twice as much it would be reasonable if they had twice as much roughing the passer calls.

#14 The Wiz

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 05:38 PM

View PostDrop Kick Flutie, on 05 December 2012 - 04:51 PM, said:

If someone is dropping back twice as much it would be reasonable if they had twice as much roughing the passer calls.
Not necessarily true.  I can't find it at the moment but the league average per game (Roughing the passer calls) is about the only stat that would be useful in the comparison.  Just because they throw a lot doesn't mean he gets hit a lot.  I've seen Brady sitting in a lawn chair, drinking a beer looking for receivers when the Bills played him.

#15 Simon

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 05:48 PM

View PostThe Wiz, on 05 December 2012 - 05:38 PM, said:

I've seen Brady sitting in a lawn chair, drinking a beer looking for receivers when the Bills played him.
I've never seen that.
Zima maybe, but not beer........

#16 The Wiz

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 07:41 PM

View PostSimon, on 05 December 2012 - 05:48 PM, said:

I've never seen that.
Zima maybe, but not beer........
I couldn't clearly see the label on the bottle in the replay I was watching.

#17 MattM

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 08:58 PM

View PostThe Wiz, on 05 December 2012 - 07:41 PM, said:


I couldn't clearly see the label on the bottle in the replay I was watching.

I'm pretty sure it was a wine cooler.

You all also realize that the "author/defender" here was the head of officiating until 2011, don't you?  You know, the guy who might possibly have an interest in burying negative stories on officiating and burnish the reputation of officials.  Personally, I believe what my eyes tell me, which is that some players (and teams) seem to get more than their fair share of calls go their way (cough, cough, Pats*, cough)....

#18 The Wiz

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 09:06 PM

View PostMattM, on 05 December 2012 - 08:58 PM, said:

I'm pretty sure it was a wine cooler.

You all also realize that the "author/defender" here was the head of officiating until 2011, don't you?  You know, the guy who might possibly have an interest in burying negative stories on officiating and burnish the reputation of officials.  Personally, I believe what my eyes tell me, which is that some players (and teams) seem to get more than their fair share of calls go their way (cough, cough, Pats*, cough)....
Oh I completely agree with you.  I'm just saying that the numbers are projected in a way that make it look like all the pretty boy QB's are never getting the calls.

Other than Vick.  He still doesn't deserve the calls.

Edited by The Wiz, 05 December 2012 - 09:07 PM.


#19 Philly McButterpants

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 09:23 PM

Typical Fox news. These numbers are BS. What is the sampling size? Are they factoring in Brady's entire career or just a few games where he didn't get hit? Brady would be at the top of this list if it weren't based on Fox's selective mathematics.

View PostDrop Kick Flutie, on 05 December 2012 - 02:20 PM, said:


Last year the pats had 18 offensive holding penalties, above league average.


Vick gets hit a lot on runs, but they are not considered pass attempt because the rules are different for hits.


Fox Sports =/= Fox News, this was a league wide, I think it is 2010 stats.

Gee, think he drinks the MSM kook-aid much?

Edited by Fatty McButterpants, 05 December 2012 - 09:28 PM.


#20 Drop Kick Flutie

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Posted 05 December 2012 - 11:12 PM

View PostMattM, on 05 December 2012 - 08:58 PM, said:

I'm pretty sure it was a wine cooler.

You all also realize that the "author/defender" here was the head of officiating until 2011, don't you?  You know, the guy who might possibly have an interest in burying negative stories on officiating and burnish the reputation of officials.  Personally, I believe what my eyes tell me, which is that some players (and teams) seem to get more than their fair share of calls go their way (cough, cough, Pats*, cough)....

Pats fans complain about calls going against them same as Bills fans, every fan base thinks the calls that go against them are BS and the ones that are for them legit.