1348 replies to this topic

[JohnC]

thebandit27, on 05 January 2013 - 11:49 AM, said:

I agree with much of this, except for excusing Chan in the QB situation.

Ask yourself this: do you really believe that the conversation happened this way?

Chan: Buddy, I need a better QB
Buddy: Chan, you'll have to make do with Fiz

I have little doubt that Chan and Nix were both involved in investing in Fitz as their starter. Even conceding that point the GM didn't add any qb prospects or alternatives to the roster in three years. When Fitz predictably faltered who was Chan going to replace him with? Thigpen? T. Jackson? The majority of the onus falls on the old school GM for not having any credible options at qb. As bad as Fitz was what would have happened if Fitz got hurt early in the season? The season would have been lost even earlier with a Thigpen caliber of qb taking the snaps. The person who mostly failed the franchise was Nix. Knowing that Ralph Wilson was involved in such a critical hire preordained the disasterous outcome.

[Pondslider]

JohnC, on 05 January 2013 - 12:03 PM, said:

I have little doubt that Chan and Nix were both involved in investing in Fitz as their starter. Even conceding that point the GM didn't add any qb prospects or alternatives to the roster in three years. When Fitz predictably faltered who was Chan going to replace him with? Thigpen? T. Jackson? The majority of the onus falls on the old school GM for not having any credible options at qb. As bad as Fitz was what would have happened if Fitz got hurt early in the season? The season would have been lost even earlier with a Thigpen caliber of qb taking the snaps. The person who mostly failed the franchise was Nix. Knowing that Ralph Wilson was involved in such a critical hire preordained the disasterous outcome.

Stop blaming the GM for things that fall under the duties of the GM.

[JPS]

Bill from NYC, on 05 January 2013 - 11:58 AM, said:

Good post as usual, from top to bottom.

Yes, Gilmore probably will be good some day, but the impact factor does have to be weighed. And I agree with you wrt Gailey. He has what I consider a very good offensive mind, but little can be accomplished sans a quarterback.

As for the "glimmer of hope" I will wait until after the draft. Call me crazy, but I expect them to draft Dee Milner at #8.

You can never have enough good cornerbacks.

[Best Player Available]

PromoTheRobot, on 05 January 2013 - 10:35 AM, said:

Zombie Lombardi.  I like it.

PTR

Mega Corpse?

[JohnC]

Bill from NYC, on 05 January 2013 - 11:58 AM, said:

Good post as usual, from top to bottom.

Yes, Gilmore probably will be good some day, but the impact factor does have to be weighed. And I agree with you wrt Gailey. He has what I consider a very good offensive mind, but little can be accomplished sans a quarterback.

As for the "glimmer of hope" I will wait until after the draft. Call me crazy, but I expect them to draft Dee Milner at #8.

With absolute certitude I say that the Bills will not draft a CB in the first round. The marketing component of the business (Brandon) would not allow it. So relax and don't worry about your standard yearly draft worry.

Will the braintrust take a qb in the first round? I believe so. But I'm not so sure. If the scouts make a judgment that a clump of qbs are of equal value then they just might wait for the second round or might even maneuver back into the first round to take a qb prospect they like.

My preference is to take the highest rated qb on your board in the first round without regards to the player ranking. For us the issue is not only talent ranking but position ranking is just as important, if not more important at this point.

For three years Buddy Nix waited for the "right" qb prospect. He ended up sitting on his hands while lower drafting teams seized on his missed opportunities. Now the franchise is hamstrung due to its lack of a legitimate qb. Smart and wise football operatives know how to be strategic. Thompson in Green Bay drafted Rogers when he had Favre on the roster. Harbaugh drafted Kaepernick when he had Alex Smith on the roster. Carroll and his staff drafted Russell Wilson after they already paid for a free agent qb in Flynn. And then there is good old Buddy who waited and waited and waited and did nothing. What did you expect? The typical obtuse Ralph Wilson hire.

Bill, keep an eye out for Tyler Wilson. I find him to be an intriquing prospect. It's a shame that he didn't have an opportunity to work with his former sleazeball HC, Petrino. That would have helped in his development.

Edited by JohnC, 05 January 2013 - 12:38 PM.

[Bill from NYC]

JohnC, on 05 January 2013 - 12:34 PM, said:

With absolute certitude I say that the Bills will not draft a CB in the first round. The marketing component of the business (Brandon) would not allow it. So relax and don't worry about your standard yearly draft worry.

Will the braintrust take a qb in the first round? I believe so. But I'm not so sure. If the scouts make a judgment that a clump of qbs are of equal value then they just might wait for the second round or might even maneuver back into the first round to take a qb prospect they like.

My preference is to take the highest rated qb on your board in the first round without regards to the player ranking. For us the issue is not only talent ranking but position ranking is just as important, if not more important at this point.

For three years Buddy Nix waited for the "right" qb prospect. He ended up sitting on his hands while lower drafting teams seized on his missed opportunities. Now the franchise is hamstrung due to its lack of a legitimate qb. Smart and wise football operatives know how to be strategic. Thompson in Green Bay drafted Rogers when he had Favre on the roster. Harbaugh drafted Kaepernick when he had Alex Smith on the roster. Carroll and his staff drafted Russell Wilson after they already paid for a free agent qb in Flynn. And then there is good old Buddy who waited and waited and waited and did nothing. What did you expect? The typical obtuse Ralph Wilson hire.

Bill, keep an eye out for Tyler Wilson. I find him to be an intriquing prospect. It's a shame that he didn't have an opportunity to work with his former sleazeball HC, Petrino. That would have helped in his development.

Again, I agree. It's as if Nix kept his eye on how a college player was rated, rather than concentrate on building a winning team. I know that this sounds nuts, but while Spiller and Gimore were rated high, and are in fact good players, it didn't translate into wins. I suppose it's the same wrt Dareus, but I was ok with this pick because it made a weak team bigger and stronger. And btw, I continue to credit Nix with building this OL. He simply should have made a move at a qb. I have no idea what held him back.

Actually, I have seen a lot of Wilson. While he lacks the tools of Mallett (who doesn't?), I think that he might be good. I also think that he will need some time, given his situation.

And btw, I still hope that the Bills offer Saban 6 years/60 million.

[K-9]

JohnC, on 05 January 2013 - 12:34 PM, said:

...My preference is to take the highest rated qb on your board in the first round without regards to the player ranking. For us the issue is not only talent ranking but position ranking is just as important, if not more important at this point. ...

Can you expand on this? Are you saying teams ascribe a certain positional 'value' to players? Or are you suggesting need creates the positional value ranking?

GO BILLS!!!

[Bill from NYC]

K-9, on 05 January 2013 - 01:05 PM, said:

Can you expand on this? Are you saying teams ascribe a certain positional 'value' to players? Or are you suggesting need creates the positional value ranking?

GO BILLS!!!

Not to speak for John, but the rule changes have made the league resemble Arena Football. Receivers now own the middle instead of assasin safeties, and HUGE fines are imposed for late hits on the QB.
Also, the new CBA makes it easier to take a chance on a qb with an early draft selection. Teams will not be destroyed for years for a blunder such as Jamarcus Russell.
In short, if you like a quarterback, you have to grab him if he is there.

PS: I don't necessarily like the new game more than the old one but to compete, the need fo a qb has never been more pronounced.

[thebandit27]

JohnC, on 05 January 2013 - 12:03 PM, said:

I have little doubt that Chan and Nix were both involved in investing in Fitz as their starter. Even conceding that point the GM didn't add any qb prospects or alternatives to the roster in three years. When Fitz predictably faltered who was Chan going to replace him with? Thigpen? T. Jackson? The majority of the onus falls on the old school GM for not having any credible options at qb. As bad as Fitz was what would have happened if Fitz got hurt early in the season? The season would have been lost even earlier with a Thigpen caliber of qb taking the snaps. The person who mostly failed the franchise was Nix. Knowing that Ralph Wilson was involved in such a critical hire preordained the disasterous outcome.

I'm definitely not absolving Nix for not drafting a QB...I'm simply saying that I disagreed that Gailey was set up to fail by NIx b/c of the lack of one.  I feel pretty confident that if Chan was adamant that he needed a QB, he would've gotten one.

[K-9]

Bill from NYC, on 05 January 2013 - 01:13 PM, said:

Not to speak for John, but the rule changes have made the league resemble Arena Football. Receivers now own the middle instead of assasin safeties, and HUGE fines are imposed for late hits on the QB.
Also, the new CBA makes it easier to take a chance on a qb with an early draft selection. Teams will not be destroyed for years for a blunder such as Jamarcus Russell.
In short, if you like a quarterback, you have to grab him if he is there.

PS: I don't necessarily like the new game more than the old one but to compete, the need fo a qb has never been more pronounced.

That depends on the QB and who else is there.

While I agree the changes in the game have altered the dynamics, the one thing that will never change is the need for good players. Playmakers at their positions. Playmaker is always a position of need and the Bills are a team without enough of them. Especially at QB, I agree. But you better be more sure of that guy than any other position because of what it does to your team when you're wrong. Fitz is proof of that. And the vibe I'm getting around here is that just as long as it's not Fitz, it's better. And nothing could be farther from the truth.

GO BILLS!!!

[JohnC]

K-9, on 05 January 2013 - 01:05 PM, said:

Can you expand on this? Are you saying teams ascribe a certain positional 'value' to players? Or are you suggesting need creates the positional value ranking?

GO BILLS!!!

There are certain positions that are much more impactful for the success of a team than other positions. Without a doubt having a good qb elevates the talent level on offense and to an extent the defense. The center position and guard position are certainly less impactful on the success of an offense than is a good qb or playmaker at receiver. A  dynamic pass rushing DE or OLB is much more valuable than an interior DL or MLB.

Let's look at this year's playoff teams. The most obvious observation is the necessity of having good qb play. Compare the Redskins from last year to this year with the addition of Griffith III. Compare the Colts from last year to this year with the addition of Luck. Look what Russell Wilson has done for Seattle in his rookie year.

Dalton is a good qb who probably won't make it to an elite level.  Without a doubt Green is a "special" talent as a receiver. But Dalton stabilized an inconsitent team and allowed his team to compete with the big boys because he stabilized the most important position.

When I watched the Bills play Seattle in Toronto it was clear that the qb that Nix passed on in the last draft was the most dynamic player on the field. Without a doubt he also  elevated his team to be a serious contending team.  This was a Buddy draft misstep  that has set this franchise back.

Where I cordially but strenuously differ with the astute NYC Bill is that I believe Spiller was a good pick. He is a bigplay player on a team that lacked playmakers. Buddy Nix had the opportunity to enhance Spiller's scintillating talents by filling the qb void that this franchise had. There were opportunities in the second round in one year (Kaepernick, Dalton, and maybe Mallett in the third) and even the third round in the following year when Wilson and Cousins were available.

Building a roster is a puzzle. Sometimes you can't overreach to fill a need. But when the opportunities are there you have to take action. Buddy preferred his rocking chair over getting into the hunt. He set this franchise back.

thebandit27, on 05 January 2013 - 01:24 PM, said:

I'm definitely not absolving Nix for not drafting a QB...I'm simply saying that I disagreed that Gailey was set up to fail by NIx b/c of the lack of one.  I feel pretty confident that if Chan was adamant that he needed a QB, he would've gotten one.

Who is the boss? The GM has the last say on who to add to the roster. The issue isn't only about Fitz. Even if both Chan/Nix were in accord that Fitz was adequate enough it is the responsibility of the GM to have someone in the pipeline ready to take the reigns.

I'm not going to disagree that Chan had some blame on the qb issue. But I'm going to apportion more blame to the person who had the most authority.That is Buddy.

[beerme1]

Rather than start a new thread, I wonder here if Russ being named Pres has any impact on the Toronto deal.
He knows everyone hates it and he knows it brings a lot of money to the team. The fact it hasn't been done yet makes me wonder if Rogers has offered drastically less money and that has left Russ to ponder whether it's really worth screwing the fans over.
Or just that he has been kinda busy lately and that it will happen in due course.

Russ please just say NO to the Toronto deal.

[K-9]

beerme1, on 05 January 2013 - 02:12 PM, said:

Rather than start a new thread, I wonder here if Russ being named Pres has any impact on the Toronto deal.
He knows everyone hates it and he knows it brings a lot of money to the team. The fact it hasn't been done yet makes me wonder if Rogers has offered drastically less money and that has left Russ to ponder whether it's really worth screwing the fans over.
Or just that he has been kinda busy lately and that it will happen in due course.

Russ please just say NO to the Toronto deal.

Given the upcoming increases in media rights fees and the corresponding revenue share, and thinking that Rogers wouldn't come close to giving them the same kind of deal ($78m for those games), and knowing it's a competitive disadvantage to play there, I wouldn't be surprised if Russ didn't renew.

GO BILLS!!!

[JohnC]

Bill from NYC, on 05 January 2013 - 01:03 PM, said:

Again, I agree. It's as if Nix kept his eye on how a college player was rated, rather than concentrate on building a winning team. I know that this sounds nuts, but while Spiller and Gimore were rated high, and are in fact good players, it didn't translate into wins. I suppose it's the same wrt Dareus, but I was ok with this pick because it made a weak team bigger and stronger. And btw, I continue to credit Nix with building this OL. He simply should have made a move at a qb. I have no idea what held him back.

Buddy has stated why he didn't pull the trigger on drafting a qb in the first round. He would have taken Newton if he was there in his first draft venture. But CM was taken with the first pick in the draft. BN was looking to draft an elite prospect rather than a developmental type qb. So he made a decision to build up the roster and then address the qb issue. Chan/Nix believed that Fitz was an acceptable option at qb for the short term until he found his "guy". That was a blunder that set this franchise back. In addition, there were qbs that he liked last year. He said so on WGR. But he refused to name the qbs. My suspicion is that he liked Cousins and Russell and thought he could get one of them in the fourth round. Later on he made the admission that when drafting a qb the next time he would be more amenable to drafting one earlier rather than risk waiting.Sometimes when you are late to dinner the hogs will devour the food only leaving scraps for the tardy guest.

Quote

Actually, I have seen a lot of Wilson. While he lacks the tools of Mallett (who doesn't?), I think that he might be good. I also think that he will need some time, given his situation.

I'm aware and so is everyone else that you have an affection for Mallett. Even with the Bills out of the playoff hunt  wouldn't it have been intriguing to see what Mallett could have done? Even in another lost season watching a young qb get an opportunity to play and develop would have had some utility and entertainment value.

Quote

And btw, I still hope that the Bills offer Saban 6 years/60 million.

What the Saban experience in Miami demonstrates is that no matter how good a HC you have the team is going to falter without a legitimate franchise qb. Just think how differently things would have played out for the dour Saban if the organization would have taken a risk on the injured Brees?

Edited by JohnC, 05 January 2013 - 07:29 PM.

[reed83 4th Rounder]

JohnC, on 05 January 2013 - 07:27 PM, said:

What the Saban experience in Miami demonstrates is that no matter how good a HC you have the team is going to falter without a legitimate franchise qb. Just think how differently things would have played out for the dour Saban if the organization would have taken a risk on the injured Brees?

Brees would have sucked and Culpepper would have won an SB with the Saints

[Kelly the Dog]

JohnC, on 05 January 2013 - 07:27 PM, said:

Buddy has stated why he didn't pull the trigger on drafting a qb in the first round. He would have taken Newton if he was there in his first draft venture. But CM was taken with the first pick in the draft. BN was looking to draft an elite prospect rather than a developmental type qb. So he made a decision to build up the roster and then address the qb issue. Chan/Nix believed that Fitz was an acceptable option at qb for the short term until he found his "guy". That was a blunder that set this franchise back. In addition, there were qbs that he liked last year. He said so on WGR. But he refused to name the qbs. My suspicion is that he liked Cousins and Russell and thought he could get one of them in the fourth round. Later on he made the admission that when drafting a qb the next time he would be more amenable to drafting one earlier rather than risk waiting.Sometimes when you are late to dinner the hogs will devour the food only leaving scraps for the tardy guest.



I'm aware and so is everyone else that you have an affection for Mallett. Even with the Bills out of the playoff hunt  wouldn't it have been intriguing to see what Mallett could have done? Even in another lost season watching a young qb get an opportunity to play and develop would have had some utility and entertainment value.



What the Saban experience in Miami demonstrates is that no matter how good a HC you have the team is going to falter without a legitimate franchise qb. Just think how differently things would have played out for the dour Saban if the organization would have taken a risk on the injured Brees?

Saban asked for Brees and told the team to sign him. The doctors overruled him and told the GM not to sign him.

[JohnC]

Kelly the Dog, on 05 January 2013 - 07:38 PM, said:

Saban asked for Brees and told the team to sign him. The doctors overruled him and told the GM not to sign him.

This is a case where I understand Miami's reluctance to sign him. The medical staff recommended that there was a health risk for the injured player. My recollection is that at the time that a decision had to be made for a substantial financial investment in a player who was still rehabbing. It was a tough call that ultimately haunted the franchise for quite some time. In the end the Saints took a gamble and it paid off for them. They got a SB trophy and a player who will probably end up in the HOF.

Edited by JohnC, 05 January 2013 - 09:09 PM.

[mannc]

JohnC, on 05 January 2013 - 01:57 PM, said:

There are certain positions that are much more impactful for the success of a team than other positions. Without a doubt having a good qb elevates the talent level on offense and to an extent the defense. The center position and guard position are certainly less impactful on the success of an offense than is a good qb or playmaker at receiver. A  dynamic pass rushing DE or OLB is much more valuable than an interior DL or MLB.

This is an absolutely vital point, and I believe the one that Nix completely failed to grasp.  Many contributors here don't get it either, but smart GMs do.  The days of looking at your draft board and simply taking the highest rated player are (or should be) over.  Certain positions are critical to NFL success and command a premium on the draft board--QB, playmaking WR, and pass-rushing DE or OLB, in that order.  That's why I am critical of the Dareus selection.  Even if Dareus lives up to his expectations (which he has not, of course) he will never have the same impact that an AJ Green has.  Green is simply a beast and even with an average QB throwing the ball to him, the defense has to account for him on every play, which also makes other players on the offense better.  Can you imagine the Bills' offense with both AJ Green and Stevie, along with a competent QB?

Same with edge rushers.  Everyone laughed at Seattle for picking Irvin as high as they did, but his speed rushing ability has had a big impact on their defense.

Edited by mannc, 06 January 2013 - 01:57 PM.

[JohnC]

mannc, on 06 January 2013 - 01:57 PM, said:

This is an absolutely vital point, and I believe the one that Nix completely failed to grasp.  Many contributors here don't get it either, but smart GMs do.  The days of looking at your draft board and simply taking the highest rated player are (or should be) over.  Certain positions are critical to NFL success and command a premium on the draft board--QB, playmaking WR, and pass-rushing DE or OLB, in that order.  That's why I am critical of the Dareus selection.  Even if Dareus lives up to his expectations (which he has not, of course) he will never have the same impact that an AJ Green has.  Green is simply a beast and even with an average QB throwing the ball to him, the defense has to account for him on every play, which also makes other players on the offense better.  Can you imagine the Bills' offense with both AJ Green and Stevie, along with a competent QB?

Same with edge rushers.  Everyone laughed at Seattle for picking Irvin as high as they did, but his speed rushing ability has had a big impact on their defense.

Let's take the most obvious deficiency that this franchise has, namely the qb position, out the discussion. Where the Nix regime has failed us the most is his lackluster drafts in general. The most effective way, if not the only real way, to elevate a bottom feeding franchise is having a number of consecutive good drafts. I'm not referring to great drafts----merely stringing togother a few good drafts. How many impactful players has he added to the roster in three years? Spiller is the only player who would fall in the category as being an impactful player.

Buddy has a scout mentality to his GM position. He never understood the difference between ranking players and building a roster. He never understood the relationship between ranking players in relationship to ranking positions. Being tactically smart isn't adequate enough when your job requires you to be strategically smart. When Ralph Wilson is involved in the hiring process you can be sure that the consequence is another problem that will need to be cleaned up.

Edited by JohnC, 06 January 2013 - 04:36 PM.

[KOKBILLS]

JohnC, on 06 January 2013 - 04:34 PM, said:

Let's take the most obvious deficiency that this franchise has, namely the qb position, out the discussion. Where the Nix regime has failed us the most is his lackluster drafts in general. The most effective way, if not the only real way, to elevate a bottom feeding franchise is having a number of consecutive good drafts. I'm not referring to great drafts----merely stringing togother a few good drafts. How many impactful players has he added to the roster in three years? Spiller is the only player who would fall in the category as being an impactful player.

Buddy has a scout mentality to his GM position. He never understood the difference between ranking players and building a roster. He never understood the relationship between ranking players in relationship to ranking positions. Being tactically smart isn't adequate enough when your job requires you to be strategically smart. When Ralph Wilson is involved in the hiring process you can be sure that the consequence is another problem that will need to be cleaned up.

John, You are quickly becoming one of my favorite members of this board...

So I guess I should apologize for that right now...

Seriously though...Great points all...