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WGR 550 talking about when to draft a QB


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#1 Canadian Bills Fan

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 09:00 AM

They made a good point by saying if you know that the QB you want will be your franchise QB, is it still a reach to draft them at #8 instead of the risk of them not being there the next time you pick.

What do you guys think?

CBF

#2 mrags

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 09:05 AM

If you truly think this is your franchise guy for the next 7-12 years. It doesn't matter where you draft him. You just get them.

Fans complaining about who you could have gotten, who you should have taken instead, who you should have traded down for, etc...

In the end, if you use the first pick in the entire draft and get anyone that will be there and be successful for the next 7-12 years, nobody cares about who you could have picked instead. Even if you could have taken the same guy in the 2nd round.

#3 Dorkington

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 09:07 AM

Even if he's "graded" at 2nd round, you take him with your first pick if he's "the guy". Fact is, there are thirty opportunities between our first and second picks for us to lose him.

But... if he's just one of a handful of guys you think can be the guy, then there's no need to reach. It really depends on how invested you are in the specific player.

#4 1billsfan

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 09:11 AM

View PostCanadian_Bills_Fan, on 10 January 2013 - 09:00 AM, said:

They made a good point by saying if you know that the QB you want will be your franchise QB, is it still a reach to draft them at #8 instead of the risk of them not being there the next time you pick.

What do you guys think?

CBF

Of course it's not a reach, but that's only if they see that QB as very close to being really good and is not a project. There is no longer a three year waiting period (that is unless you have an elite QB like Favre for a guy like Rogers to learn under). This past season has shown that high drafted rookie QBs play immediately. It should be fairly easy to access if a QB is ready or not. My top two guys are Manuel and Nassib and I'd be happy if we get either one with our 1st or 2nd round pick because I think both can be good right away. If they do use that 1st rounder on a QB, the Bills had better think that that QB will produce right away in 2013. They get a few games to get acclimated, but that's about it. Guys like Locker and Gabbert were project types to begin with and should have never been drafted where they were.

#5 C.Biscuit97

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 09:22 AM

View PostDorkington, on 10 January 2013 - 09:07 AM, said:

Even if he's "graded" at 2nd round, you take him with your first pick if he's "the guy". Fact is, there are thirty opportunities between our first and second picks for us to lose him.

But... if he's just one of a handful of guys you think can be the guy, then there's no need to reach. It really depends on how invested you are in the specific player.

Exactly.  If he is a guy you believe is a franchise QB, you don't risk pass on him because a guy who went to community college and has never been involved in football on any level (Kiper) didn't have him graded that high.  It's real life and not a fantasy draft, though it would be pretty cool if Kiper graded that.

#6 Canadian Bills Fan

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 09:36 AM

Ok so let me ask you this...

How would you all feel if we drafted Nassib at #8 and the Bills FO says they feel he is their franchise QB?

CBF

#7 PromoTheRobot

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 09:42 AM

"Reaching" is a problem invented by draftniks to argue about between the draft and camp. I can reach every pick while Johnny GM picks for value. 3 years later half my guys are in the Pro Bowl while Johnny's all got waived. Who wins?

View PostCanadian_Bills_Fan, on 10 January 2013 - 09:36 AM, said:

Ok so let me ask you this...

How would you all feel if we drafted Nassib at #8 and the Bills FO says they feel he is their franchise QB?

CBF
I can tell you with 100% certainty that some people would hate the pick while others would love it. Because all opinions on players are just that, opinions. Show me a draft bust and I'll show you a glowing draft report on that player.

PTR

Edited by PromoTheRobot, 12 January 2013 - 10:52 AM.


#8 C.Biscuit97

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 09:45 AM

View PostCanadian_Bills_Fan, on 10 January 2013 - 09:36 AM, said:

Ok so let me ask you this...

How would you all feel if we drafted Nassib at #8 and the Bills FO says they feel he is their franchise QB?

CBF

I won't be thrilled but I'd be a 100% behind it.  At the same time, you're going down with the ship if it fails like Jauron and Edwards and Gailey & Fitz.

#9 nickdaniels

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 09:48 AM

I heard them say that as well.  I agree with the statement to a point.  If he is going to be around in later rounds don't reach too far.  Then again, bet teams would pick up players like Andy Dalton or Clay Mathews a lot sooner than they did in hindsight.

#10 PromoTheRobot

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 09:50 AM

View Postnickdaniels, on 10 January 2013 - 09:48 AM, said:

I heard them say that as well.  I agree with the statement to a point.  If he is going to be around in later rounds don't reach too far. Then again, bet teams would pick up players like Andy Dalton or Clay Mathews a lot sooner than they did in hindsight.
I think that's the point. Who knows if he will be there?

PTR

#11 mrags

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 09:51 AM

View PostCanadian_Bills_Fan, on 10 January 2013 - 09:36 AM, said:

Ok so let me ask you this...

How would you all feel if we drafted Nassib at #8 and the Bills FO says they feel he is their franchise QB?

CBF
id love it if this were to happen. It would make me realize they are sold in their franchise QB

#12 JPS

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 09:53 AM

Who would you rather have, Akili Smith or Champ Bailey?

Cade McNown or Damien Woody?

In 1999, teams were desperate for QBs and moved a bunch of these jokers up.  I would rather the Bills took the best football players in hopes of getting an Urlacher, Wilfork or Jerry Rice instead of forcing a QB into the 8 hole.  I don't care what happened on Monday, if Te'o is there, sign me up.

#13 Cotton Fitzsimmons

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 09:55 AM

The way YE OLE sees it, this is not a black and white issue. My good friend, PROMO, makes a point in that the concept of "reaching" is invented by draftniks. However, take the situation that played out in last year's draft with Cordy Glenn. It may be a little early yet to write the book on how the Gilmore/Glenn tandem will play out, but Buddy told an interesting story about the 2005 draft in San Diego and how it paralleled the quandry he faced in Buffalo last year. The Chargers seriously considered grabbing Marcus McNeil in the first rd. but waited it out based on a calculated risk they could get him in the 2nd rd. HUGE draft value, obviously, but the Chargers were also much better on the field for having McNeil and Merriman.

You take a guy like Nassib... if this is truly the guy they want, and where Buddy is really going to make his money is using his connections and his instincts to guage exactly where he's going to fall. If he can grab a stud LB/pass rusher at 8 and Nassib some picks later, we as a franchise are going to be much better for it. In YE OLE's opinion, the draft is all about getting the most out of a finite number of resources.

Edited by Cotton Fitzsimmons, 10 January 2013 - 09:56 AM.


#14 kdiggz

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 10:37 AM

There's no sure thing in this draft so everyone is a reach no matter where they get drafted IMO. Look at Cousins for Washington. 4th rd pick last year but there's a lot of talk about offering a 1st rd pick for him in a trade. If they spent a 1st on him to get him that would have been considered a reach but now he's worth a 1st apparently so it's all relative. I don't think there's such a thing as reaching for a franchise qb. You get the guy you want to get

#15 A Dog Named Kelso

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 10:48 AM

View Postmrags, on 10 January 2013 - 09:05 AM, said:

If you truly think this is your franchise guy for the next 7-12 years. It doesn't matter where you draft him. You just get them.

+1000

The only decision you need to make is if the other players you like in a given round will still be there, if not, you try and trade back in to that round.

#16 RuntheDamnBall

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 10:50 AM

View PostJPS, on 10 January 2013 - 09:53 AM, said:

Who would you rather have, Akili Smith or Champ Bailey?

Cade McNown or Damien Woody?

In 1999, teams were desperate for QBs and moved a bunch of these jokers up.  I would rather the Bills took the best football players in hopes of getting an Urlacher, Wilfork or Jerry Rice instead of forcing a QB into the 8 hole.  I don't care what happened on Monday, if Te'o is there, sign me up.
Not sure about Te'o but the rest of your post is spot on.

#17 Dorkington

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 10:56 AM

View PostCanadian_Bills_Fan, on 10 January 2013 - 09:36 AM, said:

Ok so let me ask you this...

How would you all feel if we drafted Nassib at #8 and the Bills FO says they feel he is their franchise QB?

CBF

At this point? I *expect* a QB in the first or second round.

Nassib, though, hasn't exactly impressed me in the highlight packages I've seen.

#18 Billsrhody

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 10:56 AM

Its a reach if you know you can get him in round two. You wouldn't see a GM take a guy in the 1st round that wasn't expected to be drafted, even if he thought he was going to be a great player.

#19 RuntheDamnBall

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 11:00 AM

View PostBillsrhody, on 10 January 2013 - 10:56 AM, said:

Its a reach if you know you can get him in round two.
I think we've seen enough to know there is never a sure thing, though. Personally, I'll be livid if they draft Nassib and guys that I think are undoubtedly better prospects are there. These would include Geno, Tyler Wilson and maybe Glennon depending on what kind of offense they are going to run.

#20 A Dog Named Kelso

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 11:03 AM

View PostBillsrhody, on 10 January 2013 - 10:56 AM, said:

Its a reach if you know you can get him in round two. You wouldn't see a GM take a guy in the 1st round that wasn't expected to be drafted, even if he thought he was going to be a great player.
How would you know you could get him is round two? I believe they thought they could get Cousins at a different point last year and Washington grabbed him.  There is know way to know what one of the other 31 teams values the different players at.