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Buddy Nix and addressing the QB position


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#1 PromoTheRobot

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 06:20 PM

View PostCarolinaBill, on 23 January 2013 - 05:09 PM, said:


Lets not forget that each one of the QBs Nix "passed" on had significant concerns.

1: Kaep was looked at as a long term project, the fact that he is playing so well is a testament to the coaches and talent around him.  Do you think CHan would've done as well?
2: Dalton, viewed as a 5th rd talent going into mobile, he reminds me of fitz and it is interesting to note that he has one of the best WR in football catching passes from him.  I don't think we missed on him.
3: Mallett: While possessing undeniable physical ability, he has yet to diaplay such prowess in any meaningful games (jury still out) and had serious concerns coming out of college.
4: Wilson: everything was good except the height, but statistically, short QBs dont do well, and remember that Seattle and wilson really took off once the read option was installed into the offense, prior to that wilson was not setting the league on fire.  Again, I ask, do you think CHan would've been so forward thinking?
5: Cousins, this one puzzles me a bit because he is a decent talent and could've been a good guy to develop, but, he is not ready yet and does not offer a significant upgrade from what we have had with fitz.

Whoa! Since when did Cousins and  Mallet have significant careers? Riding the bench?

PTR

#2 Lurker

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 06:33 PM

View PostKelly the Dog, on 23 January 2013 - 05:21 PM, said:

I think Nix failed in a huge way. I can't wait for him to be gone. He's made way more bad selections than good ones, in critical areas, especially coaching. But he doesn't hate QBs, know nothing about them, or make those picks in a vacuum. They made good solid logical sense. He just blew it and he needs to go.
And yet, leading into the season I think most rational TSW posters were on board with Buddy's 3-year plan.   Build the talent pool (year 1), sign your own key free agents (year 2), and make a push in FA to build a stout defense that could win now (year 3).  

Adding a rookie QB before any one of these three foundational items was in place may not have worked either.   Wilson's success in Seattle was helped greatly by having a dynamic defense and a good running game.   So was Dalton's. So was Kap's.   The Bills defense certainly can't be compared to those three teams.

Unfortunately for Nix, everything that could go wrong with his plan did so this year.   The defense never clicked, the WRs got hurt, and Chan seemed to have a real meltdown in his ability to gameplan and handle the pressure.

Not appoligizing for Buddy, but it's amazing what a 16 game season can do in terms of changing positives to negatives (and vice versa).    Whaley's time is now, and I suspect Buddy will retire after the draft as the new regime settles in...

#3 Kelly the Dog

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 06:36 PM

View PostLurker, on 23 January 2013 - 06:33 PM, said:

And yet, leading into the season I think most rational TSW posters were on board with Buddy's 3-year plan.   Build the talent pool (year 1), sign your own key free agents (year 2), and make a push in FA to build a stout defense that could win now (year 3).  

Adding a rookie QB before any one of these three foundational items was in place may not have worked either.   Wilson's success in Seattle was helped greatly by having a dynamic defense and a good running game.   So was Dalton's. So was Kap's.   The Bills defense certainly can't be compared to those three teams.

Unfortunately for Nix, everything that could go wrong with his plan did so this year.   The defense never clicked, the WRs got hurt, and Chan seemed to have a real meltdown in his ability to gameplan and handle the pressure.

Not appoligizing for Buddy, but it's amazing what a 16 game season can do in terms of changing positives to negatives (and vice versa). Whaley's time is now, and I suspect Buddy will retire after the draft as the new regime settles in...
Totally agree. :beer:

#4 JohnC

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 07:01 PM

View PostKelly the Dog, on 23 January 2013 - 05:21 PM, said:

Nix made a mistake in judgment, and the Bills suffered badly for it. There is no getting around that. But at the time of the Kapernick selection, he had a starting QB that his coach said he can win with, and a veteran back-up QB that his coached loved from having him before. He had a terrible defense that needed a complete overhaul and had just drafted Dareus in the first. He was in desperate need of more CBs, including a starter or at the very least a #3 who would play a lot, and drafted a highly regarded one in Aaron Williams, over two risky QB prospects with big question marks or low ceilings, who was surely going to be the #3 QB.

It was a huge mistake in retrospect, as Williams has sucked, and Kapernick became a star. I personally don't like Dalton but even so. Nix made a huge mistake in his pick, but it made all the sense in the world. He wasn't ignoring the QB position at all, he chose the guy he thought was going to help the team the most in the short, mid, and long term.

Again, it was a huge mistake but it wasn't stupid at the time and it wasn't shirking QB responsibilities or hating the position.

The next year, he had a starting QB signed to a decent new contract, and again, his coach loved the QB. In the third round, Nix chose a guy, or I should say a position or type of player, a speedy WR that they desperately needed, and tried extremely hard to address in FA but got outbid (Robert Meachem). Nix's logic was, who is going to help this team more, and he chose the speedy WR over the #3 QB with major question marks.

Again, a MONSTER mistake in judgment of talent, as Graham has looked lost and Wilson became a star, combined with the implosion of Fitzpatrick.

But it made all the sense in the world, and again, it wasn't a dereliction of duty, it was a misjudging of his coach's ability, his starting QB's ability, his draft pick Graham's ability, and the eventual historic and unpredictable skyrocketing of Russell Wilson.

Your response is a catalogue of Nix's miscalculations. Making tough judgments and decisions are what he gets paid to do. Knowing what needs to be done is the simple part. Even a casual fan can figure that out. The challenge is to successfully act on what needs to be done. That is where Nix has miserably failed. What makes his three year stint even more of a disaster is that he more than his predecessors in his postion had less $$$$ limitations from the owner and his finance people. Nix failed because he was ill-equipped for the job. A typical bonehead Ralph Wilson hire!

Quote

I think Nix failed in a huge way. I can't wait for him to be gone. He's made way more bad selections than good ones, in critical areas, especially coaching. But he doesn't hate QBs, know nothing about them, or make those picks in a vacuum. They made good solid logical sense. He just blew it and he needs to go.

Brandon had an opportunity to start fresh upon the assumption of his new role. He should have thanked Nix for his service and then let him go. or keep him on the payroll as a "senior" scout. How do you instill a culture of responsibility within the organization when you don't hold people accountable?

#5 bananathumb

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 07:03 PM

Did anyone else hear John Murphy tell Bulldog today on WGR that Marrone was at the SB pratices Tuesday but was now back in Buffalo meeting with his staff concerning the current roster?

Should he not be in Mobile watching practices like Sean Payton and other real NFL coaches?

#6 JohnC

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 07:15 PM

View PostCarolinaBill, on 23 January 2013 - 05:09 PM, said:

Lets not forget that each one of the QBs Nix "passed" on had significant concerns.

1: Kaep was looked at as a long term project, the fact that he is playing so well is a testament to the coaches and talent around him.  Do you think CHan would've done as well?
2: Dalton, viewed as a 5th rd talent going into mobile, he reminds me of fitz and it is interesting to note that he has one of the best WR in football catching passes from him.  I don't think we missed on him.
3: Mallett: While possessing undeniable physical ability, he has yet to diaplay such prowess in any meaningful games (jury still out) and had serious concerns coming out of college.
4: Wilson: everything was good except the height, but statistically, short QBs dont do well, and remember that Seattle and wilson really took off once the read option was installed into the offense, prior to that wilson was not setting the league on fire.  Again, I ask, do you think CHan would've been so forward thinking?
5: Cousins, this one puzzles me a bit because he is a decent talent and could've been a good guy to develop, but, he is not ready yet and does not offer a significant upgrade from what we have had with fitz.

While you list a number of reasons why we shouldn't have drafted specific qb prospects other teams drafting after us made qb selections that have done well, or at least at this early stage demonstrated that they can play in this league.  All prospects have faults and limitations. But sometimes more emphasis should be placed on what a particular player can do. There is a saying: Don't let perfect be the enenmy of the good.

When Nix assumed his GM role it should have been a priority for him to find a decent prospect and have him in the pipeline. He had three years to do so. He did virtually nothing. He made a major miscalculation by designating Fitz as his starting qb for three years. But that wasn't his major failing with respect to the qb position. The major failure was not having a young prospect in the pipeline at all.

#7 Carey Bender

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 07:25 PM

View PostJohnC, on 23 January 2013 - 07:15 PM, said:



While you list a number of reasons why we shouldn't have drafted specific qb prospects other teams drafting after us made qb selections that have done well, or at least at this early stage demonstrated that they can play in this league.  All prospects have faults and limitations. But sometimes more emphasis should be placed on what a particular player can do. There is a saying: Don't let perfect be the enenmy of the good.

i took that as being the point of the post

Edited by Carey Bender, 23 January 2013 - 07:25 PM.


#8 JohnC

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 07:33 PM

View PostCarey Bender, on 23 January 2013 - 07:25 PM, said:

i took that as being the point of the post

The poster enumerated reasons why prospects werent' picked. My point was that on the flip side there were reasons why they could have been picked.

#9 CarolinaBill

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 07:41 PM

View PostJohnC, on 23 January 2013 - 07:33 PM, said:



The poster enumerated reasons why prospects werent' picked. My point was that on the flip side there were reasons why they could have been picked.
My point is that its easy to pick Apart Nixs decisions after the fact, forgetting the legitimate concerns associated with each prospect. On a team full of holes and almost EVERY POSITION needing to be upgraded, I won't crucify Nix for being picky when looking at qbs, however, the time is now for a new qb. He has done well to build the talent level and fill most of those aforementioned holes. Qb is the one big one left to fill.


#10 BobChalmers

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 07:43 PM

View PostCarolinaBill, on 23 January 2013 - 05:09 PM, said:

4: Wilson: everything was good except the height, but statistically, short QBs dont do well, and remember that Seattle and wilson really took off once the read option was installed into the offense, prior to that wilson was not setting the league on fire.  Again, I ask, do you think CHan would've been so forward thinking?

5: Cousins, this one puzzles me a bit because he is a decent talent and could've been a good guy to develop, but, he is not ready yet and does not offer a significant upgrade from what we have had with fitz.

In fairness to Wilson though, please don't gloss over the fact that he took the Seattle QB job in camp over both Travaris Jackson (easy) and Matt Flynn (hard to beat out the guy they spent a fortune on).

I happened to be out in the Seattle area on business when camp was happening this past summer and listening to their local radio Wilson was setting the world on fire from day one of camp.  They designed the system to take advantage of him later, perhaps, but he was winning the job with their existing system.


As for Cousins, I strongly suspect the Bills had every intention of taking him in the fourth and were probably as surprised as many of us were when the Redskins took a 2nd QB.  He was one of the few QB's buffalobills.com was talking up before the draft.

Edited by BobChalmers, 23 January 2013 - 07:45 PM.


#11 JohnC

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 08:02 PM

View PostCarolinaBill, on 23 January 2013 - 07:41 PM, said:

My point is that its easy to pick Apart Nixs decisions after the fact, forgetting the legitimate concerns associated with each prospect. On a team full of holes and almost EVERY POSITION needing to be upgraded, I won't crucify Nix for being picky when looking at qbs, however, the time is now for a new qb. He has done well to build the talent level and fill most of those aforementioned holes. Qb is the one big one left to fill.

The fairest way to assess a GM"s draft prowess is after the fact, not when the picks are made.  The fairest way to judge the decisions that Nix made during his tenure is not when the player decisions are made but how they worked out. In my opinion his three year record for drafts is mediocre at best. His judgment with respect to Fitz was very poor. Against divisional opponents his record is 4-14. Against playoff teams his record is 2-18. Last year the Bills played two very good teams, 49ers and Seahawks. The cumulative score against the Bills was 95-20. My point is that there is still a wide disparity between the Bills and good teams.

There are subjective ways to evaluate performances. The most indisputable way and the only real way to judge performance is to consider the record. In my view Nix has not succeeded at his job.

#12 Kelly the Dog

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 08:03 PM

Another MAJOR reason why Nix didn't select a QB in the last two drafts was that his coach wanted to use Brad Smith as the #3 QB. You can argue all you want with that decision, but it had to have a huge affect on Nix's thought process on selecting a QB in the 2-6th round. He would have had to cut Thigpen or Young Or Jackson just to keep that QB on the roster.

I personally liked that decision. You may not. I also wanted Russell Wilson, and would have been fine with making him the #2 and cutting Thigpen. I wouldnt have been fine with a different #3 or #4 or #5 who was a long shot and project. Later on, when Nelson and other WRs got hurt, he scrapped that idea and kept Smith at WR and Thigpen and Jackson as #2 and #3.

#13 JPS

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 08:49 PM

View PostKelly the Dog, on 23 January 2013 - 08:03 PM, said:

Another MAJOR reason why Nix didn't select a QB in the last two drafts was that his coach wanted to use Brad Smith as the #3 QB. You can argue all you want with that decision, but it had to have a huge affect on Nix's thought process on selecting a QB in the 2-6th round. He would have had to cut Thigpen or Young Or Jackson just to keep that QB on the roster.

I personally liked that decision. You may not. I also wanted Russell Wilson, and would have been fine with making him the #2 and cutting Thigpen. I wouldnt have been fine with a different #3 or #4 or #5 who was a long shot and project. Later on, when Nelson and other WRs got hurt, he scrapped that idea and kept Smith at WR and Thigpen and Jackson as #2 and #3.
Guess it didn't work.

#14 JohnC

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 09:42 PM

View PostKelly the Dog, on 23 January 2013 - 08:03 PM, said:

Another MAJOR reason why Nix didn't select a QB in the last two drafts was that his coach wanted to use Brad Smith as the #3 QB. You can argue all you want with that decision, but it had to have a huge affect on Nix's thought process on selecting a QB in the 2-6th round. He would have had to cut Thigpen or Young Or Jackson just to keep that QB on the roster.

I personally liked that decision. You may not. I also wanted Russell Wilson, and would have been fine with making him the #2 and cutting Thigpen. I wouldnt have been fine with a different #3 or #4 or #5 who was a long shot and project. Later on, when Nelson and other WRs got hurt, he scrapped that idea and kept Smith at WR and Thigpen and Jackson as #2 and #3.

During Nix's three year tenure as a GM his list of qbs on the roster was Fitz, Thigpen, Young, Levi Brown and T. Jackson. That is not only an issue of malfeasance and nonfeasance it is simply absurd.  If he couldn't add talent to such a lackluster collection of qbs in three years then he should find another field of endeavor. As bad as Fitz is if he would have gotten hurt early in the season then what caliber of qb would have replaced him? This is the NFL---- not a tier II college league!

#15 Kelly the Dog

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 09:59 PM

View PostJohnC, on 23 January 2013 - 09:42 PM, said:

During Nix's three year tenure as a GM his list of qbs on the roster was Fitz, Thigpen, Young, Levi Brown and T. Jackson. That is not only an issue of malfeasance and nonfeasance it is simply absurd.  If he couldn't add talent to such a lackluster collection of qbs in three years then he should find another field of endeavor. As bad as Fitz is if he would have gotten hurt early in the season then what caliber of qb would have replaced him? This is the NFL---- not a tier II college league!
Eventually Tavaris Jackson, an NFL starter the previous season, and three of the previous four seasons. He's a very capable back-up QB in the league.

#16 JohnC

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 10:13 PM

View PostKelly the Dog, on 23 January 2013 - 09:59 PM, said:

Eventually Tavaris Jackson, an NFL starter the previous season, and three of the previous four seasons. He's a very capable back-up QB in the league.

T. Jackson was so impressive that Gailey didn't even dress him. Sometimes one's talent is so hidden that no one can find it. My basic point in my comments is that the collection of qbs during Nix's prior three year stint was not only dismal, but it was embarrassing.

It's not surprising that wherever Jackson started the organization he played for looked for a replacement. Mediocrity is mediocrity!

#17 Kelly the Dog

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 10:38 PM

View PostJohnC, on 23 January 2013 - 10:13 PM, said:

T. Jackson was so impressive that Gailey didn't even dress him. Sometimes one's talent is so hidden that no one can find it. My basic point in my comments is that the collection of qbs during Nix's prior three year stint was not only dismal, but it was embarrassing.

It's not surprising that wherever Jackson started the organization he played for looked for a replacement. Mediocrity is mediocrity!
i thought you were smarter than that. There are several different kinds of back-up QBs. Tavaris Jackson is one of the better back-up QBs to have, which was the question you asked and I answered. I assume you know that, and I assume you know why he didn't play or dress. John Schneider and Pete Carroll, the prescient geniuses that were so smart to draft Russell Wilson, signed Jackson the year before, to be a starter, before realizing he should be a back-up. Some back-ups, like Charlie Batch and Leftwich, for example, are extremely valuable to a team. You don't want them as your #1 guy and starter, you want them in case of disaster.

#18 mob16151

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 10:54 PM

View PostKelly the Dog, on 23 January 2013 - 10:38 PM, said:

i thought you were smarter than that. There are several different kinds of back-up QBs. Tavaris Jackson is one of the better back-up QBs to have, which was the question you asked and I answered. I assume you know that, and I assume you know why he didn't play or dress. John Schneider and Pete Carroll, the prescient geniuses that were so smart to draft Russell Wilson, signed Jackson the year before, to be a starter, before realizing he should be a back-up. Some back-ups, like Charlie Batch and Leftwich, for example, are extremely valuable to a team. You don't want them as your #1 guy and starter, you want them in case of disaster.

The Vikings would have KILLED to have Jackson back on their roster wildcard weekend.

#19 Kelly the Dog

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 10:58 PM

View Postmob16151, on 23 January 2013 - 10:54 PM, said:

The Vikings would have KILLED to have Jackson back on their roster wildcard weekend.
Yep.

#20 Sisyphean Bills

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 10:01 AM

View PostKelly the Dog, on 23 January 2013 - 10:38 PM, said:

i thought you were smarter than that. There are several different kinds of back-up QBs. Tavaris Jackson is one of the better back-up QBs to have, which was the question you asked and I answered. I assume you know that, and I assume you know why he didn't play or dress. John Schneider and Pete Carroll, the prescient geniuses that were so smart to draft Russell Wilson, signed Jackson the year before, to be a starter, before realizing he should be a back-up. Some back-ups, like Charlie Batch and Leftwich, for example, are extremely valuable to a team. You don't want them as your #1 guy and starter, you want them in case of disaster.
The problem with this is that Chan never got Tavaris ready.  CG claimed that because TJ was brought in late, that he wouldn't get enough reps over the course of an entire season to ever wear pads to a football game -- and that is exactly what happened.  The truth is that TJ was not the disaster QB for the Bills; Brad Smith was.  TJ was the guy in street clothes on Sunday charting plays in a baseball hat and running the scout team for the defense the rest of the week.  Now, he is gone.