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CJ and dropped passes in 2012


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#1 Kelly the Dog

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 11:52 AM

I'm a pretty big fan of ProFootballFocus and the kinds of stuff they do with analytics. But I am a little, if not a lot less impressed with them after reading this:

Quote

Other names on the list include C.J. Spiller, who in addition to nearly breaking the elusive rating, dropped only one pass this year. You really can’t get him involved enough whether you’re running or passing, and his ability on every down is likely to be the thing that turns the Bills’ offense around.
https://www.profootb...-running-backs/

Who could not agree with the second sentence? But CJ dropped numerous passes this year. Granted, I know and could agree with some of them that he got two hands on were a little high, so I am not even counting those. And I think CJ is a very, very good receiver out of the backfield. But I also remember several times yelling, "C'mon, CJ! You gotta catch that!"

No way, IMO, he dropped one pass the entire season.

I can't wait to see him next year though. He should explode.

#2 NoSaint

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 12:04 PM

View PostKelly the Dog, on 24 January 2013 - 11:52 AM, said:

I'm a pretty big fan of ProFootballFocus and the kinds of stuff they do with analytics. But I am a little, if not a lot less impressed with them after reading this:

https://www.profootb...-running-backs/

Who could not agree with the second sentence? But CJ dropped numerous passes this year. Granted, I know and could agree with some of them that he got two hands on were a little high, so I am not even counting those. And I think CJ is a very, very good receiver out of the backfield. But I also remember several times yelling, "C'mon, CJ! You gotta catch that!"

No way, IMO, he dropped one pass the entire season.

I can't wait to see him next year though. He should explode.

i think it goes to an argument i often see out of (i believe) SJBF - to paraphrase: i love the concept of the advanced stats, but in a game like football its incredibly hard to assign blame or reward on any given play even for a well qualified scout, and we dont know that these guys are even that.

#3 metzelaars_lives

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 12:11 PM

View PostKelly the Dog, on 24 January 2013 - 11:52 AM, said:

I'm a pretty big fan of ProFootballFocus and the kinds of stuff they do with analytics. But I am a little, if not a lot less impressed with them after reading this:

https://www.profootb...-running-backs/

Who could not agree with the second sentence? But CJ dropped numerous passes this year. Granted, I know and could agree with some of them that he got two hands on were a little high, so I am not even counting those. And I think CJ is a very, very good receiver out of the backfield. But I also remember several times yelling, "C'mon, CJ! You gotta catch that!"

No way, IMO, he dropped one pass the entire season.

I can't wait to see him next year though. He should explode.

I watched every second of every game this year save for the Jacksonville game and the second Jets game and I don't recall him dropping too many passes.  Don't forget, it doesn't count as a dropped pass if it's an errant throw; it's gotta be a pass that he should have had.

#4 NoSaint

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 12:15 PM

View Postmetzelaars_lives, on 24 January 2013 - 12:11 PM, said:



I watched every second of every game this year save for the Jacksonville game and the second Jets game and I don't recall him dropping too many passes.  Don't forget, it doesn't count as a dropped pass if it's an errant throw; it's gotta be a pass that he should have had.

and that can be where the problem with some of this lies - the person qualifying whats catchable vs a drop, and sometimes in these discussions whether the receiver was in the right spot, played the ball properly to begin with (poorly timed turn, wrong shoulder can be an issue in the backfield making an easy throw tough) etc...

the stats are cool as a jumping off point, but not as solid as some take them to be.

#5 Kelly the Dog

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 12:22 PM

View Postmetzelaars_lives, on 24 January 2013 - 12:11 PM, said:

I watched every second of every game this year save for the Jacksonville game and the second Jets game and I don't recall him dropping too many passes.  Don't forget, it doesn't count as a dropped pass if it's an errant throw; it's gotta be a pass that he should have had.
Oh, I know. And I don't think that there were a ton of them. I just remember screaming at the TV a lot more than once, and I love CJ. There were a few short slants IIRC where the ball hit him right in the numbers. I also recall a few that IMO he should have caught but were not good passes, and I wouldn't call them drops.

In fact, in line with what NoSaint is saying, there are a lot of plays in the NFL where it is both a bad pass by the qb AND a blatant drop by the wr or rb. I wonder how PFF measures those. Or, like when the ball is right in the wr or rb's hands and he gets hit almost right away by a defender that makes him drop it. Do they call that a drop? You can understand why it wasn't a completion and it wasn't a flat drop, but he got two hands on it clean, pulled it in and should have held on.

#6 mountainwampus

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 12:33 PM

CJ clearly dropped 2 in the final game. In fact, everyone was playing like they didn't care in that game. Nobody wanted to get hit right after a catch because the game was pointless.

#7 reddogblitz

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 12:52 PM

Depends on what the definition of the "drop" is.  This stat has a very different meaning that I would consider to be a drop.  This is the bigs, and if a football hits you in the hands you gotta bring it in whether it's a good throw or not.  All of our WRs drop too many footballs.

#8 eSJayDee

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 01:22 PM

Could it be possible that the 1 drop refers to only those where he lined up in the RB position?
I, too, certainly would think that he dropped more than 1 pass, but I also recall that one/some were on quick slants where he was lined up as a WR.

#9 Kelly the Dog

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 01:30 PM

View PosteSJayDee, on 24 January 2013 - 01:22 PM, said:

Could it be possible that the 1 drop refers to only those where he lined up in the RB position?
I, too, certainly would think that he dropped more than 1 pass, but I also recall that one/some were on quick slants where he was lined up as a WR.
That is a good point, and it's quite possible that is the distinction they made. I don't know why they would make that, since it's not as though they usually had another RB in there while CJ was split. But it very well could be what you said.

#10 billsfan11

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 01:39 PM

i dont really remember cj dropping passes.. only game i didnt watch was the last game against the jets

#11 Dibs

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 02:40 PM

View PosteSJayDee, on 24 January 2013 - 01:22 PM, said:

Could it be possible that the 1 drop refers to only those where he lined up in the RB position?
I, too, certainly would think that he dropped more than 1 pass, but I also recall that one/some were on quick slants where he was lined up as a WR.
I don't think so.
The article linked says he was the target of 55 balls....44 were catchable....and he caught 43.
Since his actual number of catches was 43 it appears that they have calculated all together.

I'd love to see how they class what a catchable ball is.

#12 Captain Hindsight

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 02:44 PM

*Cue someone saying he dropped 2 or 3 a game*

#13 Cash

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 03:38 PM

View PostCaptain Hindsight, on 24 January 2013 - 02:44 PM, said:

*Cue someone saying he dropped 2 or 3 a game*

I'll say it.  And all his tackles are 5 yards past the line of scrimmage.

#14 Captain Hindsight

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 04:43 PM

View PostCash, on 24 January 2013 - 03:38 PM, said:

I'll say it.  And all his tackles are 5 yards past the line of scrimmage.
Lets not forget most of his yards are in garbage time

#15 NoSaint

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 04:59 PM

View PostCaptain Hindsight, on 24 January 2013 - 04:43 PM, said:


Lets not forget most of his yards are in garbage time

personally, i blame the defense. cj is always having to play catch up and and get a td on every drive.

#16 Kelly the Dog

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 05:08 PM

View PostNoSaint, on 24 January 2013 - 04:59 PM, said:

personally, i blame the defense. cj is always having to play catch up and and get a td on every drive.
Plus, it doesn't matter if he gains 2200 yards and wins the Super Bowl, he was a reach and wasted draft pick at #9.