46 replies to this topic

[Astrobot]

I've done these for several years, but I thought it might help our thinking if I ran the simulation this early, and take votes for the #8 pick through next Tuesday evening to allow for Senior Bowl shakeout. I will be using DraftTek's simulatorto make picks based on our pick in each round.

Here is what has happened so far:
Round Pick Team Selection Psn School CRI Delta ReachValue

1 1 Kansas City Geno Smith QB West Virginia P2Grab -7 Reach
1 2 Jacksonville Bjoern Werner DE43 Florida State P2 -1 Reach
1 3 Oakland Manti Te'o SILB Notre Dame Grab -4 Reach
1 4 Philadelphia Dee Milliner CB Alabama P2 -1 Reach
1 5 Detroit Dion Jordan DE43 Oregon P1 -4 Reach
1 6 Cleveland Jarvis Jones OLB34 Georgia P1 +5 Value
1 7 Arizona Luke Joeckel OT Texas A&M P2 +3 Value
1 8 Buffalo ???

You may vote for more than one player. If you want to change your vote before Tuesday evening, there is an option to remove your vote and do it again.

You're on the clock.

Edited by Astrobot, 25 January 2013 - 05:32 PM.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

I went LT Eric Fisher, Kid is a stud and having bookend Tackles would be great for whatever QB we end up with.

If we want a NT we can get Brandon Williams from Missouri Southern, kid is a beast at 341 and was dominating OLineman  at senior bowl practice and had fantastic pass rush skills from the inside. second round though.

Also like DE Datone Jones in the second as well, has real nice pass rush moves and probably can play both fronts

[D521646]

The question really is, how many teams are so desparate that they will pull the trigger on a weak QB class in the first round? I see the following that could possibly be looking for QB first.

1. Buffalo
2. KC.
3. Jags.
4. Cleveland
5. Philly
6. Cards.
7. Jets.
8. Titans.

From this group, all these teams have important needs elsewhere and the wisdom of reaching for a QB in a weak class with their top pick is only a real viable option for Buffalo, KC, Cardinals, and possibly Philly, Jags and the Jets, however they have bigger issues to tend with. So then, if I'm Buddy Nix I know there will be a decent enough crop of QB's available in the 2nd and even 3rd rounds, and if it were me, I take the best impact player as my number 8 pick and roll the dice in the 2nd.

Even if there's a run on QB's in the first and assuming that 4 of the teams listed choose a QB in the first, there will still be a good crop to choose from (And by good I mean no one is any better or worse than anyone else) in the 2nd, and 3rd rounds.

That all said, I say we roll the dice and pick up an impact player in the first, with high ceiling potential such as C. Patterson, WR Ten. This guy fills a couple of needs, WR, KR, PR, and RB. Only kid in NCAA history to score TD's all four ways last year.

I didn't see him on the OP's list.


Tim-

[Billsrhody]

Star Lotulelei hasnt gone yet and isnt an option?

[JPS]

Billsrhody, on 25 January 2013 - 10:18 AM, said:

Star Lotulelei hasnt gone yet and isnt an option?

Yeah, if Star were available, you have to take him. Sounds Ngata-like.

I voted for Fisher. I think the Bills RT stunk all year and Pears is average on his best day.  SF invested heavily on their O-line and it has paid off. Since our O-line is by far our best asset, I'd like to see them complete the picture and draft another OT.

Edited by JPS, 25 January 2013 - 11:21 AM.

[Bangarang]

Tyler Wilson

[the skycap]

I, like Barbarian, voted Eric Fisher. I'd rather build a dominant offensive line that will protect and make any QB we bring in comfortable. Also to open holes for Spiller to run through. I honestly don't care if the Bills don't draft QB this year. Next years class have more "franchise" capable QBs than this class and we can bring in a stopgap QB for one year or two to help a Teddy Bridgewater, Aaron Murray, AJ McCarron or Tajh Boyd transition to the league. Get your stud tackle, linebackers and WR in this draft. If a Nassib, Glennon, or Wilson fall in your lap later then bounce on him.

[NewEra]

Billsrhody, on 25 January 2013 - 10:18 AM, said:

Star Lotulelei hasnt gone yet and isnt an option?

It's a no brainer.  Star all day everyday, regardless of "need".

TE'o at 3?  I usually like this astro, but the Te'o pick just makes this lame this year.

[Johnny Hammersticks]

Tyler Wilson, but I would also be happy with Ogletree or Fisher in this scenario.  Te'o went #3 to Oakland?  Absolutely no way that happens IMHO.

[VirginiaMike]

I went Ogletree -- looks like a playmaker to me.

[KD in CT]

Good idea.  May I suggest you create a tag for these posts?   It would be fun to easily see the evolution of thinking between now and the draft.

[NewEra]

Astro....any reason Star isn't on the list and Richardson and Hankins are? Makes zero sense.

[Astrobot]

D521646, on 25 January 2013 - 09:57 AM, said:

The question really is, how many teams are so desparate that they will pull the trigger on a weak QB class in the first round? I see the following that could possibly be looking for QB first.

1. Buffalo
2. KC.
3. Jags.
4. Cleveland
5. Philly
6. Cards.
7. Jets.
8. Titans.

From this group, all these teams have important needs elsewhere and the wisdom of reaching for a QB in a weak class with their top pick is only a real viable option for Buffalo, KC, Cardinals, and possibly Philly, Jags and the Jets, however they have bigger issues to tend with. So then, if I'm Buddy Nix I know there will be a decent enough crop of QB's available in the 2nd and even 3rd rounds, and if it were me, I take the best impact player as my number 8 pick and roll the dice in the 2nd.

Even if there's a run on QB's in the first and assuming that 4 of the teams listed choose a QB in the first, there will still be a good crop to choose from (And by good I mean no one is any better or worse than anyone else) in the 2nd, and 3rd rounds.

That all said, I say we roll the dice and pick up an impact player in the first, with high ceiling potential such as C. Patterson, WR Ten. This guy fills a couple of needs, WR, KR, PR, and RB. Only kid in NCAA history to score TD's all four ways last year.

I didn't see him on the OP's list.

Tim-

Tim, excellent post! I was going to research this very topic, so you saved me several hours! Thanks! I was suspecting that if I looked over prioritized team needs for each team, that I'd fin 2-4 QB's in RD2 that were pretty good bets. I just ran a simulation here and found the following QB's available at #40:

Tyler Wilson QB Arkansas
Landry Jones QB Oklahoma
Tyler Bray QB Tennessee
Zac Dysert QB Miami
Ryan Nassib QB Syracuse

From your list of teams, Arizona and KC already took their QB's, Geno Smith and Matt Barkley. Jacksonville opted for Bjoern Werner DE43 Florida State and Cleveland took Manti Te'O. Jets took Star Lotulelei DT34. Titans took Dion Jordan in the first and Travis Frederick in RD2,

Star Lotulelei is a DT43/34 now at #5 on DraftTek's Big Board and #15 on mine, rated a lot lower if he's a DT34 especially under Pettine's defensive schemes. We have Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus, who's Star Lotulelei with 10+ more pounds, rotating with Carrington regardless of 4-3 or 3-4. Stars from Tonga, was an out of shape 2nd stringer from Snow College, couldn't qualify academically when he applied to BYU, and would be a luxury pick at a position we're good in.  How would Star fill a need?

Cordarelle Patterson wasn't on my list for RD1. DraftTek doesn't have him rated as high as TwoBillsDrive, although I have him #28 on my board...stay tuned.

Edited by Astrobot, 25 January 2013 - 04:44 PM.

[1billsfan]

D521646, on 25 January 2013 - 09:57 AM, said:

The question really is, how many teams are so desparate that they will pull the trigger on a weak QB class in the first round? I see the following that could possibly be looking for QB first.

1. Buffalo
2. KC.
3. Jags.
4. Cleveland
5. Philly
6. Cards.
7. Jets.
8. Titans.

From this group, all these teams have important needs elsewhere and the wisdom of reaching for a QB in a weak class with their top pick is only a real viable option for Buffalo, KC, Cardinals, and possibly Philly, Jags and the Jets, however they have bigger issues to tend with. So then, if I'm Buddy Nix I know there will be a decent enough crop of QB's available in the 2nd and even 3rd rounds, and if it were me, I take the best impact player as my number 8 pick and roll the dice in the 2nd.

I could see Tampa Bay and/or Dallas picking a QB in the first. Tampa's coach has already hinted that he isn't into Freeman's level of dedication and Dallas' Jerry Jones would no doubt love to draft the Arkansas QB Tyler Wilson to create a major shake up in the franchise.

Then there's New England who could possibly try to draft Brady's replacement without warning. Is Mallet really their guy of the future? This is a long shot prediction, but I wonder what their plans are post Brady.

[NewEra]

Astrobot, on 25 January 2013 - 04:12 PM, said:

Tim, excellent post! I was going to research this very topic, so you saved me several hours! Thanks! I was suspecting that if I looked over prioritized team needs for each team, that I'd fin 2-4 QB's in RD2 that were pretty good bets. I just ran a simulation here and found the following QB's available at #40:

Tyler Wilson QB Arkansas
Landry Jones QB Oklahoma
Tyler Bray QB Tennessee
Zac Dysert QB Miami
Ryan Nassib QB Syracuse

From your list of teams, Arizona and KC already took their QB's, Geno Smith and Matt Barkley. Jacksonville opted for Bjoern Werner DE43 Florida State and Cleveland took Manti Te'O. Jets took Star Lotulelei DT34. Titans took Dion Jordan in the first and Travis Frederick in RD2,

Star Lotulelei is a DT43/34 now at #5 on DraftTek's Big Board and #15 on mine, rated a lot lower if he's a DT34 especially under Pettine's defensive schemes. We have Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus, who's Star Lotulelei with 10+ more pounds, rotating with Carrington regardless of 4-3 or 3-4. Stars from Tonga, was an out of shape 2nd stringer from Snow College, couldn't qualify academically when he applied to BYU, and would be a luxury pick at a position we're good in.  How would Star fill a need?

Cordarelle Patterson wasn't on my list for RD1. DraftTek doesn't have him rated as high as TwoBillsDrive, although I have him #28 on my board...stay tuned.

Star is a great player and one that could help us.  Scheme aside.  He'd be the bpa and a monster.  I'd much rather have him than Richardson and Hankins.  Pettine will use our players to the best of their abilities.  His talents wouldn't be wasted.  Btw....Kyle might be on a downward spiral.  I hope not, but we might need his replacement sooner rather than later.  If we passes on him, I'd be pissed.  That being said, he won't be on the board.  And as said before, having Te'o going so high really kills this entire process for me. Sure, they may need a LB, but will they draft Te'o?  Not a chance. Milliner to Philly?  Eh.  Joeckel lasts til 7?  I just think this is garbage.  Jmo

Edited by NewEra, 25 January 2013 - 05:13 PM.

[The Poojer]

I'd like a voting option to try and trade back to 18-23...then go with nassib

[MOVALLEYRANDY]

Don't understand the love for Ogletree. He can't cover...and as I'm rewatching the Bama game ( I didn't save the Bowl game) he looked like he didn't want to hit. In all fairness neither did Rambo or Willaims. If we take Ogletree before Warmack or a QB I'd be bummed. In fact I would feel about what I felt when we took Maybin and Whitner --> depressed and sick at my stomach.

Astrobot, on 25 January 2013 - 04:12 PM, said:

Tim, excellent post! I was going to research this very topic, so you saved me several hours! Thanks! I was suspecting that if I looked over prioritized team needs for each team, that I'd fin 2-4 QB's in RD2 that were pretty good bets. I just ran a simulation here and found the following QB's available at #40:

Tyler Wilson QB Arkansas
Landry Jones QB Oklahoma
Tyler Bray QB Tennessee
Zac Dysert QB Miami
Ryan Nassib QB Syracuse

From your list of teams, Arizona and KC already took their QB's, Geno Smith and Matt Barkley. Jacksonville opted for Bjoern Werner DE43 Florida State and Cleveland took Manti Te'O. Jets took Star Lotulelei DT34. Titans took Dion Jordan in the first and Travis Frederick in RD2,

Star Lotulelei is a DT43/34 now at #5 on DraftTek's Big Board and #15 on mine, rated a lot lower if he's a DT34 especially under Pettine's defensive schemes. We have Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus, who's Star Lotulelei with 10+ more pounds, rotating with Carrington regardless of 4-3 or 3-4. Stars from Tonga, was an out of shape 2nd stringer from Snow College, couldn't qualify academically when he applied to BYU, and would be a luxury pick at a position we're good in.  How would Star fill a need?

Cordarelle Patterson wasn't on my list for RD1. DraftTek doesn't have him rated as high as TwoBillsDrive, although I have him #28 on my board...stay tuned.

Have you had a chance to watch the Senior Bowl practices ? Landry Jones looks by far the most inaccurate with Wilson looking the sharpest and Glennon a close second. But please take Landry Jones off our most wanted list. He is simply not as good as Wilson or Barkley.

Edited by MOVALLEYRANDY, 25 January 2013 - 05:17 PM.

[atlbillsfan1975]

MOVALLEYRANDY, on 25 January 2013 - 05:17 PM, said:

Don't understand the love for Ogletree. He can't cover...and as I'm rewatching the Bama game ( I didn't save the Bowl game) he looked like he didn't want to hit. In all fairness neither did Rambo or Willaims. If we take Ogletree before Warmack or a QB I'd be bummed. In fact I would feel about what I felt when we took Maybin and Whitner --> depressed and sick at my stomach.

Have you had a chance to watch the Senior Bowl practices ? Landry Jones looks by far the most inaccurate with Wilson looking the sharpest and Glennon a close second. But please take Landry Jones off our most wanted list. He is simply not as good as Wilson or Barkley.

I really do not know what you are watching. Ogletree is a converted Safety that has beefed up to 240ish. Kid was learning how to fill holes at lb. But in the Bama game he played pretty darn good.
Ogletree should be the pick if the Bills do not go QB. Need and bpa.

[Astrobot]

NewEra, on 25 January 2013 - 05:12 PM, said:

Star is a great player and one that could help us.  Scheme aside.  He'd be the bpa and a monster.  I'd much rather have him than Richardson and Hankins.  

Sheldon Richardson will be a dominating player. Agree about Hankins--motor and consistency will be an issue. But they were for Wilfork as well.
Richardson:

[NewEra]

MOVALLEYRANDY, on 25 January 2013 - 05:17 PM, said:

Don't understand the love for Ogletree. He can't cover...and as I'm rewatching the Bama game ( I didn't save the Bowl game) he looked like he didn't want to hit. In all fairness neither did Rambo or Willaims. If we take Ogletree before Warmack or a QB I'd be bummed. In fact I would feel about what I felt when we took Maybin and Whitner --> depressed and sick at my stomach.

Have you had a chance to watch the Senior Bowl practices ? Landry Jones looks by far the most inaccurate with Wilson looking the sharpest and Glennon a close second. But please take Landry Jones off our most wanted list. He is simply not as good as Wilson or Barkley.

Landry Jones is complete garbage.  I'm glad to see most people on here have eyes and can see.  The only eye test he passes is the test in which you looks at his numbers.  Decent size.  Good stats.  Watch him play, especially in a big game, and you see what a bum he is.  I hope buddy has his glasses on.  If he's our guy, at least we'll be picking #1 sometime soon

Astrobot, on 25 January 2013 - 05:24 PM, said:

Sheldon Richardson will be a dominating player. Agree about Hankins--motor and consistency will be an issue. But they were for Wilfork as well.
Richardson:

I've seen him play.  He's a great player.  I'd take Star over him.  Still wondering why he and Hankins are on the list and star isn't.  He's 6'4 300.  Star is 6'4 325.  Hankins is 6'3 320.  Why exclude him?  How does Hankins "fit" and Star does not?  Makes zero sense to me.