The question really is, how many teams are so desparate that they will pull the trigger on a weak QB class in the first round? I see the following that could possibly be looking for QB first.
From this group, all these teams have important needs elsewhere and the wisdom of reaching for a QB in a weak class with their top pick is only a real viable option for Buffalo, KC, Cardinals, and possibly Philly, Jags and the Jets, however they have bigger issues to tend with. So then, if I'm Buddy Nix I know there will be a decent enough crop of QB's available in the 2nd and even 3rd rounds, and if it were me, I take the best impact player as my number 8 pick and roll the dice in the 2nd.
Even if there's a run on QB's in the first and assuming that 4 of the teams listed choose a QB in the first, there will still be a good crop to choose from (And by good I mean no one is any better or worse than anyone else) in the 2nd, and 3rd rounds.
That all said, I say we roll the dice and pick up an impact player in the first, with high ceiling potential such as C. Patterson, WR Ten. This guy fills a couple of needs, WR, KR, PR, and RB. Only kid in NCAA history to score TD's all four ways last year.
I didn't see him on the OP's list.
Tim, excellent post! I was going to research this very topic, so you saved me several hours! Thanks! I was suspecting that if I looked over prioritized team needs for each team, that I'd fin 2-4 QB's in RD2 that were pretty good bets. I just ran a simulation here
and found the following QB's available at #40:
Tyler Wilson QB Arkansas
Landry Jones QB Oklahoma
Tyler Bray QB Tennessee
Zac Dysert QB Miami
Ryan Nassib QB Syracuse
From your list of teams, Arizona and KC already took their QB's, Geno Smith and Matt Barkley. Jacksonville opted for Bjoern Werner DE43 Florida State and Cleveland took Manti Te'O. Jets took Star Lotulelei DT34. Titans took Dion Jordan in the first and Travis Frederick in RD2,
Star Lotulelei is a DT43/34 now at #5 on DraftTek's Big Board and #15 on mine, rated a lot lower if he's a DT34 especially under Pettine's defensive schemes. We have Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus, who's Star Lotulelei with 10+ more pounds, rotating with Carrington regardless of 4-3 or 3-4. Stars from Tonga, was an out of shape 2nd stringer from Snow College, couldn't qualify academically when he applied to BYU, and would be a luxury pick at a position we're good in. How would Star fill a need?
Cordarelle Patterson wasn't on my list for RD1. DraftTek doesn't have him rated as high as TwoBillsDrive, although I have him #28 on my board...stay tuned.
Edited by Astrobot, 25 January 2013 - 04:44 PM.