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3 Fallacies about the Draft


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#1 simpleman

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 11:14 AM

Three fallacies I keep hearing over and over again about the NFL Draft

1.) The 2013 Draft is weak in talent.

Yes it is generally agreed that the QB position is weak this year with 1st round talent. And some believe that in general the 1st Round OL talent availability is average.
But the DL talent level is considered generally strong this year.
How you as a team view a draft’s relative strength is how you view the talent available at the positions you identify a need at.

2.) That making trades in draft positions is the exception and is not very common

According to the NFL, last year almost 50% of the eligible draft picks were the result of position trades. And that 50% were the trades that were agreed to, there are no figures that I can find on trade offers that were not agreed to.

http://www.nfl.com/d...f-all-the-moves

Two picks were traded multiple times.

The traded picks in the first round alone- 2,3,4,5,6,7,12,14,15,21,25,27,29,31

3.) Our 8th  position choice has little trade value, since the talent is so weak this year

The saying goes “Beauty is in the eye of the beholder”. If a team has targeted a particular position or a particular player as someone they think will improve their team, if that player they really want is available at Number 8, an intelligent, professional GM will always at least consider the possibility of trading up for them. It does not matter how much or how little talent there is available at positions a team does not feel they have in need for, it only matters if the talent or the player they have a position of need for is available.
What I have a need for is of high relevance to me. I may strategically care about choices another team makes when choosing before me when selecting positions/players I don’t feel a need for. But that is because the domino effect of their choices may affect other team’s choices before me and may ultimately affect my options.  Ultimately, I am more concerned with the available choices/players/positions that can fill MY needs.

Edited by simpleman, 26 January 2013 - 09:47 AM.


#2 Triple Threat

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 11:38 AM

View Postsimpleman, on 25 January 2013 - 11:14 AM, said:

Three fallacies I keep hearing over and over again about the NFL Draft

1.) The 2013 Draft is weak in talent.

Yes it is generally agreed that the QB position is weak this year with 1st round talent.

I couldn't disagree more.  I think there are several first round talent QB's coming out.  And I think this years second tear is far and above last years.  Osweiler, Wilson,  Moore,  Weeden,  Cousins,  Foles,  Tannehill,  Keenum don't compare IMO to this years guys.

#3 Johnny Hammersticks

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 01:07 PM

View PostTriple Threat, on 25 January 2013 - 11:38 AM, said:

I couldn't disagree more.  I think there are several first round talent QB's coming out.  And I think this years second tear is far and above last years.  Osweiler, Wilson,  Moore,  Weeden,  Cousins,  Foles,  Tannehill,  Keenum don't compare IMO to this years guys.

The problem is, I don't see a clear distinction between the first and second "tier" QB's in this draft.  Is it Geno and then everyone else?  With this class I see a bunch of 2nd - 3rd round guys who will be picked way too early because there is always a premium on drafting QB's.

#4 sodbuster

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 01:12 PM

The QB talent in this draft isnt worse, it is just different. IMO there arent the all star 1 and 2 picks, but there is way more depth at the position. I follow college ball pretty closely, and this is the first year I have had trouble keeping all the QBs in order.

#5 jboyst62

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 01:20 PM

View PostTriple Threat, on 25 January 2013 - 11:38 AM, said:

I couldn't disagree more.  I think there are several first round talent QB's coming out.  And I think this years second tear is far and above last years.  Osweiler, Wilson,  Moore,  Weeden,  Cousins,  Foles,  Tannehill,  Keenum don't compare IMO to this years guys.
I fully agree...and disagree.

There is not as much top end talent as last year.  RGIII, Luck, even Tannehill.  This year there is not as much higher end "sure things."  Last year there was Weeden (who had to be reached for to fill a need), Osweiler, Foles, Cousins, and Wilson in the middle of the road pack, some better then others.  Of those, Cousins and Wilson were the two thought to be on the 2nd tier, Weeden Foles and Osweiler on tier 3.

2013:

Geno Smith might be the only tier 1 QB

Matt Barkley I struggle saying he is a tier 2 given the history of USC QB's.

Tier 2:
Wilson
Nassib
Bray
Glennon

Tier 3:
Bray
Nassib
Manuel
Dysert

Tier 4:
Jordan Rodgers (Vanderbilt)
Matt Scott
Collin Klein
Brad Sorenson

More QB's will last in the league for the 2013 draft then the 2012.

#6 jeremy2020

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 01:38 PM

1. I don't think people in general beyond a few loose screws are saying it's a weak year. Most are referring to the QB situation. Seems like a strawman, but you did indeed, knock it down.

2. Also, not something I see people in general saying. I see a lot of people who do think that you can simply make a trade down whenever you want to do so and generally get the price you want.

3. Picks in the top ten generally have a lot of talent left and falls back on the previous argument. It adds the element of saying GMs believe it is a weak year which doesn't seem to be the case. A lot of this also comes from pre-rookie scale days where a team could end up giving a high pick a crazy amount of money and have him bust.

#7 Nanker

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 01:42 PM

1. The check's in the mail.
2. Of course I'll respect you in the morning.
3. No, I'll never post these pictures of you on the Internet.

Oh, sorry. I thought it was about the three biggest lies of all time.

#8 atlbillsfan1975

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 01:48 PM

I have said it in another thread. There will be at least one great QBin this class and probably 3-4 other solid-good qb's.
Do i know which one is which, nope. It is Buddy and Whaley's job to figure out who they are. Pick him at 8 or mortgage next years draft and move up. I do not really care what anyone thinks, i mean Kiper and McShay. If they where real experts at the draft they would be working for an NFL team.
Listen to guys who have been there in the war room and know how to really evaluate talent. They know it is not just about combine and numbers. Personality and work ethic, level of competition etc...
Nix got Glenn in the second round because people where scared he was just a guard. He proved in his rookie year he can play LT.
He will only get better and kudos to Buddy and Whaley for realizing his potential. Let's hope they can do the same thing for the QB position in this years draft.

#9 Maddog69

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 02:34 PM

View Postsodbuster, on 25 January 2013 - 01:12 PM, said:

The QB talent in this draft isnt worse, it is just different. IMO there arent the all star 1 and 2 picks, but there is way more depth at the position. I follow college ball pretty closely, and this is the first year I have had trouble keeping all the QBs in order.
this seems to be the consensus.   There are a bunch of QBs with mid 1st round to mid second round grades but none that stand head and shoulders above the rest.
That being said, it seems that this would almost force the Bills to reach for a guy they like at 8 because his grade is late 1st and he is likely to be gone by our pick in the second.    The Bills have to come out of this draft with their top rated QB.

#10 l< j

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 03:17 PM

Shouldn't Teo's girlfriend be among the top 3 fallacies of this year's draft? Good points, all 3, despite that.

#11 swnybillsfan

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 08:16 PM

View PostMaddog69, on 25 January 2013 - 02:34 PM, said:

this seems to be the consensus.   There are a bunch of QBs with mid 1st round to mid second round grades but none that stand head and shoulders above the rest.
That being said, it seems that this would almost force the Bills to reach for a guy they like at 8 because his grade is late 1st and he is likely to be gone by our pick in the second. The Bills have to come out of this draft with their top rated QB.
this seems to be pretty accurate. hopefully the guy they want is there for them at 8. pull the trigger and make the best of it!

#12 Nitro

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 09:39 PM

Strong draft class if you need Defensive or Offensive linemen followed by DB and WR.  I agree the draft class for QB does not have elite talent but there is quality.  Prior to the current CBA most teams would shy away from reaching on a QB due to (among other reasons) money.  Now the hit will not be as great to make a reach.  IMO a draft without elite skill positions on the top of the board will lend itself to more trades in the premium rounds.  As noted before up to 50 percent of selections have been traded but the bulk of that is in the 4th and later rounds.  

This will be a very fluid draft and a fun  one to watch.   Glennon is flying up the boards with his Senior Bowl practice this week and tomorrows game will have an impact on the draft.  Weighing what to do at the 8th position will be predicated on what the first 7 teams do starting with KC.  Jacksonville and Arizona need QB and the Jets at 9th can trade up past the Bills to nab a coveted QB.  If the top 3 QBs are taken...I see the Bills selecting a LB or OL.  Trading back will be the the wisest option in this scenario.  I look forward to April all the pre draft debate.

#13 bobobonators

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 10:01 PM

View PostJohnny Hammersticks, on 25 January 2013 - 01:07 PM, said:

The problem is, I don't see a clear distinction between the first and second "tier" QB's in this draft.  Is it Geno and then everyone else?  With this class I see a bunch of 2nd - 3rd round guys who will be picked way too early because there is always a premium on drafting QB's.

Exactly.  Is there really that big of a difference between Nassib, Wilson, Glennon, and co.?  I don't see it.

#14 DrDareustein

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 10:16 PM

View Postatlbillsfan1975, on 25 January 2013 - 01:48 PM, said:

I have said it in another thread. There will be at least one great QBin this class and probably 3-4 other solid-good qb's.
Do i know which one is which, nope. It is Buddy and Whaley's job to figure out who they are. Pick him at 8 or mortgage next years draft and move up. I do not really care what anyone thinks, i mean Kiper and McShay. If they where real experts at the draft they would be working for an NFL team.

View Postbobobonators, on 25 January 2013 - 10:01 PM, said:

Exactly.  Is there really that big of a difference between Nassib, Wilson, Glennon, and co.?  I don't see it.

This is all exactly how I feel about the QB situation. Especially the bold. Top priority should be identifying their guy, whoever that is, and then doing everything to ensure we get him.

Even though I favor Geno Smith, I'll be fine with whoever they end up with, as long as they take a QB early.

Edited by DrDareustein, 25 January 2013 - 10:17 PM.


#15 jboyst62

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 10:26 PM

View PostDrDareustein, on 25 January 2013 - 10:16 PM, said:




This is all exactly how I feel about the QB situation. Especially the bold. Top priority should be identifying their guy, whoever that is, and then doing everything to ensure we get him.

Even though I favor Geno Smith, I'll be fine with whoever they end up with, as long as they take a QB early.
so leverage every other position of need, higher performers in shallow positions to select a guy who only slightly better then the rest of the field by many viewpoints in hopes that he will be of more value then other possibly selectees?

I have said it before, I am comfortable doing a 3rd pick on a QB because I see LB as such a need. I could be happy drafting WLB, SLB/MLB, QB in that order. I do not think a QB this year benefits this team more then another position of need. In fact, if not fr fear of Te'o I would say we benefit by not going all in on a QB early.   2014 offers a better chance of rounding out our roster with a qb.

#16 Homer

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 11:26 PM

if there were a 1 and 2 star QB in this draft we wouldnt get them at 8 anyway.

#17 San Jose Bills Fan

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 08:19 AM

View PostHomer, on 25 January 2013 - 11:26 PM, said:

if there were a 1 and 2 star QB in this draft we wouldnt get them at 8 anyway.

The problem is that no one can say with any certainty who the "1 and 2 star QBs" are.

The first QBs taken might not necessarily be the best.

It might turn out that the 3rd, 4th, or 5th QB taken ends up being the best to come from this draft.

In that sense, the Bills are still sitting in pretty good shape at #8.

Very good OP btw.

#18 3rdand12

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 09:22 AM

Good post simpleman. :thumbsup:
Regardless of talent certain teams Need the best option at QB in the draft which could push guys into the first round.
It's all relative i suppose as to who wants who the most. When the clock starts ticking.

#19 simpleman

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 09:39 AM

I agree with what most posters say. It is still too early to tell, but I do feel that as this point before the combine Smith is the only QB worth taking a gamble on at #8. As most mentioned, there are a lot of decent gambles at QB in the draft, but they are too risky to waste a valuable #8 pick on. Either use the #8 on Smith if he falls to us, use it on the best lb/wr/dl rated by our scouts on the board at that time, or try to trade down, get another 2nd round pick and their 1st.  Then pick the best QB available in the late first. I think the 2nd tier talent is exceptional this draft, and wisely using two 2nd round picks and a 3rd could change the whole complexion of the team positively if we got lucky with a QB selected there. I would not mortgage the future on a QB this year in desperation. Maybe next year there might emerge a QB worth that gamble, I don't see that this year. I'd settle for a moderate gamble in the late first , or in the 2nd until then.

Edited by simpleman, 26 January 2013 - 09:40 AM.


#20 DrDareustein

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 10:07 AM

View Postjboyst62, on 25 January 2013 - 10:26 PM, said:

so leverage every other position of need, higher performers in shallow positions to select a guy who only slightly better then the rest of the field by many viewpoints in hopes that he will be of more value then other possibly selectees?

I have said it before, I am comfortable doing a 3rd pick on a QB because I see LB as such a need. I could be happy drafting WLB, SLB/MLB, QB in that order. I do not think a QB this year benefits this team more then another position of need. In fact, if not fr fear of Te'o I would say we benefit by not going all in on a QB early.   2014 offers a better chance of rounding out our roster with a qb.

It depends on how the FO rates the players. We're all just guessing here on how the QBs rate out. Sure we watch college ball, and have some idea, but that will all change when it's actually draft time.

My point was IF the FO identifies a player as their franchise QB, then do whatever it takes to get him. If they think Smith (for example) is really a Tier 1 guy, then trade up and get him. If they think Glennon (or whoever) is a 1st/2nd round guy, pick them at #8. Dont kitty-foot around and hope you land a guy. If you like him, make it happen.

I also dont have a problem with picking a QB in the 2nd, as long as the risk of waiting pays off and they get "their guy". Like if, for example, they like Nassib as a 3rd rounder, take him in the 2nd. Of course, we dont know who that specifically is, but I'm just hoping the Bills are serious about getting a QB early this draft.

I think we're going to see an early run on QBs regardless of where people "rank their talent". If Im correct, waiting until the 3rd will land us a 4th Tier QB in an already marginal class. Taking a 3rd round QB just means we're going to waste a year, and will be picking another QB with our Top 5 pick in 2014. Which Im not opposed to either. I think smart teams will start taking QBs early and often, like 1 in the first 4 rounds every year, then every other year. Take a QB this year, and next year.

As a side note, my brain completely dismisses the statement "Next year's class is better" as I have read that phrase every year over the last 4-5 years. There's no validity in that prediction. No telling what will happen with careers and injuries. Take a guy early this year and next year. Start injecting this team with young, hungry QB talent.