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Drafting Success "LB"

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#1 Dibs

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 12:52 PM

Hi all,

This is the second in a series of threads where I will be breaking down past drafts by individual position.
First thread on QBs here…
http://forums.twobil...ing-success-qb/

I do this for my own curiosity….and hope you find it of interest as well.


Every year, fans & media talk about the draft in relation to plugging holes of weakness on a team.  The assumption tends to be that any player drafted in the 1st(particularly high picks), 2nd, 3rd and sometimes 4th round will solve the problems of that team at the given position.

I will be endeavouring to ascertain the likelihood of teams actually achieving this for each position.
I will be using strict unbiased criteria to avoid personal opinion affecting the results.

The criteria I am setting for a player to be considered to “plug a hole” of need is:
(Starter) Having played as a starter for the drafting team(12+ starts) for 5+ seasons.

I am also determining Stars: 4+ Pro Bowls for the drafting team.

And also for a bit of fun am denoting the number of players that achieve 1+ Pro Bowls for the drafting team.


I will be breaking the draft up into rounds 1, 2, 3, 4/5, 6/7, as well as breaking the 1st round into 5 sections.  #1, #2-#4, #5-#10, #11-#20 & #21-#32.

The data pool will be selected from 20 years of drafts from 1986 – 2005.  This ensures all draftees have a full 8 years of NFL experience to achieve my benchmarks.
(Rounded to the nearest percent)


Linebackers

Round 1

63 players selected
8 Stars 13% (1 in 7.9)
23 Starters 37% (1 in 2.7)
21 probowlers 33% (1 in 3)

R1 Pick 1

1 player selected
0 Stars
0 Starters
0 probowlers

R1 Picks 2-4

8 players selected
2 Stars 25% (1 in 4)
3 Starters 38% (1 in 2.7)
4 probowlers 50% (1 in 2)

R1 Picks 5-10

12 players selected
2 Stars 17% (1 in 6)
4 Starters 33% (1 in 3)
3 probowlers 25% (1 in 4)

R1 Picks 11-20

28 players selected
1 Stars 4% (1 in 28)
11 Starters 39% (1 in 2.6)
10 probowlers 36% (1 in 2.8)

R1 Picks 21-32

14 players selected
3 Stars 21% (1 in 4.7)
5 Starters 36% (1 in 2.8)
4 probowlers 29% (1 in 3.5)

Round 2

89 players selected
2 Stars 2% (1 in 44.5)
16 Starters 18% (1 in 5.6)
11 probowlers 12% (1 in 8.1)

Round 3

92 players selected
3 Stars 3% (1 in 30.7)
10 Starters 11% (1 in 9.2)
8 probowlers 9% (1 in 11.5)

Rounds 4/5

169 players selected
1 Stars 1% (1 in 169)
13 Starters 8% (1 in 13)
9 probowlers 5% (1 in 18.8)

Rounds 6/7

182 players selected
1 Stars 1% (1 in 182)
5 Starters 3% (1 in 36.4)
5 probowlers 3% (1 in 36.4)


Notes & Observations:
In the unique situation of Cornelius Bennett, I counted him as a Bills’ draftee in relation to the criteria used.

It should be noted that there were a large number of LBs that had promising careers cut short due to injury concerns.  Obviously the percentages reflect the injury issue.

There were also a noticeable number of LBs who were regular starters that changed teams after their rookie contracts expired and continued as starters for their new teams.  This perhaps suggests that most teams believe that a starting LB is relatively easy to replace via the draft and are unwilling to spend veteran money on the position.
However, as the statistics show, these teams are quite mistaken.  Even with these roster changed LBs factored in, one would need to draft 2 LBs in the 1st round to realistically hope to get one of starting quality.

I was quite astonished to see that the success rate for the 1st round Starters is basically the same throughout the entire round(37%).  Stars however are twice as frequent in the top 10(19%) compared to the 11-32 range(10%).

My thoughts in relation to these statistics and the Bills needing multiple LBs in the upcoming draft are that assuming we do not draft a LB in the first round, trading down in the 2nd round and picking up additional 3rd, 4th & 5th round draft picks to spend on LBs would statistically give a far greater chance of success than staying put at #10 in the 2nd round.

Edited by Dibs, 26 January 2013 - 02:57 PM.


#2 BuckeyeBill

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 01:15 PM

Interesting data and hypothesis.  I like your thinking

#3 Rippedcity

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 01:34 PM

Thanks for the research. I would be interested to see the difference between OLB and MLB.

#4 Astrobot

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 02:09 PM

This took a long time, Dibs. Thank you for your research!

You're right about RD2. Chase Thomas, Corey Lemonier, and Arthur Brown are the three LB's I'd like to see in a Bills uni. They're all OK with me, so a trade-down would still net one of these guys.

In the next tier, Khaseem Greene and Sean Porter would be there at RD3.
Brandon Jenkins, Jonathan Brown, Gerald Hodges and Jelani Jenkins in RD4-5.
After that, there's nobody.

#5 mob16151

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Posted 26 January 2013 - 02:15 PM

View PostAstrobot, on 26 January 2013 - 02:09 PM, said:

This took a long time, Dibs. Thank you for your research!

You're right about RD2. Chase Thomas, Corey Lemonier, and Arthur Brown are the three LB's I'd like to see in a Bills uni. They're all OK with me, so a trade-down would still net one of these guys.

In the next tier, Khaseem Greene and Sean Porter would be there at RD3.
Brandon Jenkins, Jonathan Brown, Gerald Hodges and Jelani Jenkins in RD4-5.
After that, there's nobody.

To me outside of the first tier guys like,Mingo,Jordan,Jones,Ogletree  etc the only other guy im in love with in this draft as a prospect is Jelani Jenkins,





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