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Your 2013 draft strategy if you were the Billís GM?


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#1 simpleman

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 03:16 PM

I just don’t see any good gambles at getting a franchise QB in this years draft. Let’s not panic and mortgage our team’s future for a reach and a bad gamble at QB.

Try to pick up a vet FA QB as a game manager this year, I just can’t take the trauma of living through another season watching Fitz. At least a new face will lessen the trauma a little, even if we get the same results. Hoping that there is QB in the draft that is a reasonable gamble at becoming a Franchise QB next year. Build the team this year to actually support him when we finally do get him. Do what it takes to get the QB then, if we identify one as a good enough gamble at actually becoming our QB of the future.

We have so many needs to fill. At least two WRs, two LBs, DL, OL, TE. Assuming we can resign Byrd and Levitre, we are only truly set at center and RB.  Every other position at least needs better quality backups. Hopefully before the draft we can get one or two quality FA to help fill some of our positions of need.

Try to trade down into the mid 1st round and get at least another teams first and second round picks.

It looks like there will be a lot of very worthy talent available in the 2nd round this year without reaching too much. Using the 1st and two 2nd round picks, get BPA that fits our needs among WR, LB, TE, OL and DL.

In the 3rd and 4th, or even trading back into the 3rd if need be, pick up two QBs from among who is still remaining of Manuel, Bray, Nassib, Jones, Glennon and Dysert, if any are still there. They all are gambles, and are long shots to ever be a franchise QB. Take two if possible, and simply roll the dice after filling your greatest other needs with your first three picks and FA.

What would your draft strategy be?

Edited by simpleman, 29 January 2013 - 03:18 PM.


#2 KOKBILLS

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 03:46 PM

I would look to trade down in the 1st...Maybe twice...Get an extra 2nd Round Pick minimum...Take EJ Manuel with my 1st Pick...Then look to bring in a LB, CB, and WR...I would most definitely Draft another QB in the 4th or 5th Round... B-)

#3 San Jose Bills Fan

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 03:54 PM

Hold onto the #8 pick and use the full allotted 10 minutes before using it, hoping that another team makes you a trade offer so good you can't refuse.

If that offer doesn't materialize, pick the best player available regardless of position.

In the second round look for a quarterback and if the guy they've targeted is available within 10 picks, try to trade up to assure getting him as long as you don't pay too high a price. IMO none of these QBs are worth paying a premium for.

Don't make moves out of desparation because none of the prospects are worth making aggressive moves for.

Let the draft come to you (in the form of trade offers).

#4 BuffaloBillsMagic1

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 04:04 PM

Pick best player available at 8, then fill needs...

#5 KollegeStudnet

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 04:20 PM

draft the best CB at 8.  Too soon?

#6 Billsguy

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 04:21 PM

I would pick the best players available in all rounds. I would try to address specific needs via trades or free agency or the draft.

I wouldn't reach for a specific position need in any way. Reaching to fill a specific need reminds me of Drew Bledsoe and Rob Johnson. How did that work out?

#7 Big Hurt

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 04:23 PM

Trading down a few spots would be nice but other teams for some reason don't like trading with the Bills.  If they can manage to trade down to 15 to 18 spot, take Manti Te'o.  I know he has a bad bowl game and his girl friend hoax, but he has a long track record of being the best ILB in this draft.  Pick him up at that spot would be a steal.  Then pick up a QB with the next pick.  Third pick should be a lineman, preferably a C/G for backup.  Then I would look at receiver, OLB for the last few spots.

#8 jeremy2020

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 04:24 PM

I would look for a 2013 first round swap and a 2nd rounder this year or a 2nd and fourth or better next year. If that is not available then I'd take the best player available.

I'm very much against drafting solely on 'need'. I think upgrading from sh*t to merely bad doesn't win you game while upgrading from good to great is a better choice.

#9 DefenseWinzChampionshipz

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 04:25 PM

I'm sticking to my guns as I did before... If I were gm, I would draft the QB who has the hottest girlfriend, the LB with the raspiest voice, pre Madonna wide receivers, and Hawaiian players on any position of defense except for CB...

#10 Haven Moses

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 04:27 PM

I would go to Draftek and do what it says.



#11 JR in Pittsburgh

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 04:39 PM

Buddy Nix is incapable of trading down; he doesn't have the guts to do it. Don't hold me to this, but I believe based on my recollection that he has been offered a 1st round trade down offer in all his drafts and has declined.  

One of my favorite Bills' drafts was Donahoe's first--when he traded down, got Clements in the 1st, and then snagged Schobel and Henry in the second round.

#12 brenty

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 04:41 PM

I would pick up Jamarcus Russell, Then do what the raiders did once and draft a 1st round kicker. After that I would suggest her drafter a new defense of line, Trade mario williams for a 3rd round pick and flynn. Then I would move that stadium to oklahoma.

#13 Chris in Syracuse

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 04:44 PM

If a real great player is available at 8 than you have to pick him.  If not trade down and take your qb in the bottom of the first round.  I think Smith and Barkley are the only two with a first round grade.  I would rather reach in the 20's than at 8 for a qb.  As for Te'o that really depends on what the board says not us fans. I have a feeling he gets a low first round grade but I think our need for a franchise QB is greater than any other need.

View PostJR In Ann Arbor, on 29 January 2013 - 04:39 PM, said:

Buddy Nix is incapable of trading down; he doesn't have the guts to do it. Don't hold me to this, but I believe based on my recollection that he has been offered a 1st round trade down offer in all his drafts and has declined.  

One of my favorite Bills' drafts was Donahoe's first--when he traded down, got Clements in the 1st, and then snagged Schobel and Henry in the second round.
Buddy Nix will be forced to be amenable to the idea.  Like I said in another post unless an absolute steal of a player is available at 8 he has to trade down.  I think Whaley and Brandon will force him to do it. I hope anyway.

#14 910BillsFan

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 04:54 PM

If I am GM first order of business is deciding who we keep and who we let go. For me I make it priority number one to resign AL and either sign or tag Byrd. Id prefer to keep Moore, Merriman, Rinehart and Nelson at a reasonable price for each. Everyone else can go as far as I'm concerned. In addition I'd cut Kelsay, Brad Smith and Lindell.

Next in FA I would use our cap space on attempting to sign Dwayne Bowe and either Paul Kruger or Conner Barwin. Wouldn't mind testing the waters on Jared Cook or Delanie Walker either depending on our cap situation.

As far as the draft I'd have two scenarios:
1. Able to trade back to 16-20 and pick up a 2nd round pick in 2014. In this case my perfect draft would be...

Round 1: DJ Fluker RT Alabama
Round 2: Kevin Minter ILB LSU
Round 3: Chase Thomas OLB Stanford
Round 4: Tyler Bray QB Tennessee
Round 5: Travis Kelce TE Cincinnati
Round 6: Dwayne Gratz CB Connecticut
Round 7: Conner Vernon WR Duke

Sign Dustin Hopkins as an undrafted free agent.
Then package our 1st and two 2nds in 2014 to move up for our "franchise" qb.

Scenario #2: Stay at 8...

Round 1: Eric Fisher LT Cental Michigan
Round 2: Kevin Minter MLB LSU
Round 3: EJ Manuel QB Florida State
Round 4: Tharold Simon CB LSU
Round 5: Cobi Hamilton WR Arkansas
Round 6: Vance McDonald TE Rice
Round 7: Silas Redd RB USC

Sign Dustin Hopkins K Florida St as an undrafted free agent and again move up for qb in 2014

#15 1billsfan

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 05:09 PM

View Postsimpleman, on 29 January 2013 - 03:16 PM, said:

I just don’t see any good gambles at getting a franchise QB in this years draft. Let’s not panic and mortgage our team’s future for a reach and a bad gamble at QB.

Try to pick up a vet FA QB as a game manager this year, I just can’t take the trauma of living through another season watching Fitz. At least a new face will lessen the trauma a little, even if we get the same results. Hoping that there is QB in the draft that is a reasonable gamble at becoming a Franchise QB next year. Build the team this year to actually support him when we finally do get him. Do what it takes to get the QB then, if we identify one as a good enough gamble at actually becoming our QB of the future.

We have so many needs to fill. At least two WRs, two LBs, DL, OL, TE. Assuming we can resign Byrd and Levitre, we are only truly set at center and RB.  Every other position at least needs better quality backups. Hopefully before the draft we can get one or two quality FA to help fill some of our positions of need.

Try to trade down into the mid 1st round and get at least another teams first and second round picks.

It looks like there will be a lot of very worthy talent available in the 2nd round this year without reaching too much. Using the 1st and two 2nd round picks, get BPA that fits our needs among WR, LB, TE, OL and DL.

In the 3rd and 4th, or even trading back into the 3rd if need be, pick up two QBs from among who is still remaining of Manuel, Bray, Nassib, Jones, Glennon and Dysert, if any are still there. They all are gambles, and are long shots to ever be a franchise QB. Take two if possible, and simply roll the dice after filling your greatest other needs with your first three picks and FA.

What would your draft strategy be?

I don't know where people are getting that EJ Manuel will be there in the third or later rounds. That is purely insane wishful thinking. That ship has sailed. Manuel looked great in the Senior Bowl. He has the size, athleticism and skills that can't be teached. He's a mature person with a good work ethic. He can avoid the rush easily. There's no doubt in my mind that he'll be drafted in the first round. His worst case scenario is being drafted by Eagles pick #35 in the second round. Chip Kelly recruited Manuel in high school and I'm sure he would love to be able to get him there. I heard this nugget listening to Manuel getting interviewed today on Philly's all sports radio station The Fanatic.

BTW, It's not only the NFL weak QB teams, but I definitely could see teams like the Bears, Vikings, Texans and Patriots "surprise" the experts by drafting the "high ceiling QB" EJ Manuel in the back end of the first round because these kind of QBs don't grow on trees and there's an extremely HIGH premium on the QB position.

As for the original question, I like these two scenarios (I'm not so sure which one is best yet)...
1. Get Alex Smith and go best defensive player at #8 and trade back into the 1st for a top WR like Austin or Patterson.
2. EJ Manuel at #8 and trade back into the 1st for a top WR like Austin or Patterson. It sucks that it will be considered a big gamble, but the Bills can't chance losing their guy.

The Bills can no longer afford to get "cute" with the QB position. Get Smith or Manuel and move on.

#16 kas23

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 05:24 PM

View Postbrenty, on 29 January 2013 - 04:41 PM, said:

I would pick up Jamarcus Russell, Then do what the raiders did once and draft a 1st round kicker. After that I would suggest her drafter a new defense of line, Trade mario williams for a 3rd round pick and flynn. Then I would move that stadium to oklahoma.

It would be awesome if you could reverse draft players. Like returning a product to the store to get your money back. So, in effect, could return a 1st round bust and get the pick back. There would have to be rules, of course, but it would be the ultimate way of installing parity.

#17 JPS

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 05:35 PM

View PostSan Jose Bills Fan, on 29 January 2013 - 03:54 PM, said:

Hold onto the #8 pick and use the full allotted 10 minutes before using it, hoping that another team makes you a trade offer so good you can't refuse.

If that offer doesn't materialize, pick the best player available regardless of position.

In the second round look for a quarterback and if the guy they've targeted is available within 10 picks, try to trade up to assure getting him as long as you don't pay too high a price. IMO none of these QBs are worth paying a premium for.

Don't make moves out of desparation because none of the prospects are worth making aggressive moves for.

Let the draft come to you (in the form of trade offers).
Perfectly stated.

#18 Bangarang

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 05:55 PM

View PostSan Jose Bills Fan, on 29 January 2013 - 03:54 PM, said:

Hold onto the #8 pick and use the full allotted 10 minutes before using it, hoping that another team makes you a trade offer so good you can't refuse.

If that offer doesn't materialize, pick the best player available regardless of position.

In the second round look for a quarterback and if the guy they've targeted is available within 10 picks, try to trade up to assure getting him as long as you don't pay too high a price. IMO none of these QBs are worth paying a premium for.

Don't make moves out of desparation because none of the prospects are worth making aggressive moves for.

Let the draft come to you (in the form of trade offers).

Agree with just about everything

#19 jboyst62

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 06:02 PM

While I look forward to reading every reply, I do not have time this very second.  I just felt like chiming in on a few things.

- Do not be afraid to draft the players you need.  If you need a TE and it's in the 2nd round while a top TE is available get him and do not reach for another position because you think you need an LB/QB/Whatever.

- Do not be stupid, look where guys have played.  You want to build a team out not start from scratch or gamble on a guy.  The current GM has done well, so we do not need to gamble all or nothing on a guy from the no-name conference when an equal talent is there from the higher tier schools - SEC, Big 10, ACC even...

- If there is a QB to fall in to your lap, take him.  We seem to look QB desperate but do not draft that way.

#20 Dibs

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 06:42 PM

View Postsimpleman, on 29 January 2013 - 03:16 PM, said:

I just don’t see any good gambles at getting a franchise QB in this years draft. Let’s not panic and mortgage our team’s future for a reach and a bad gamble at QB.

Try to pick up a vet FA QB as a game manager this year, I just can’t take the trauma of living through another season watching Fitz. At least a new face will lessen the trauma a little, even if we get the same results. Hoping that there is QB in the draft that is a reasonable gamble at becoming a Franchise QB next year. Build the team this year to actually support him when we finally do get him. Do what it takes to get the QB then, if we identify one as a good enough gamble at actually becoming our QB of the future.

On this part you are sorely mistaken.

QBs that are a good gamble of becoming franchise QBs are typically identified as such by all teams and are selected in the top 4 draft picks.
These QBs have roughly a 50% chance of becoming good starters and a 20% chance of becoming star QBs.
The other QBs who grade highly enough to be considered 1st round picks are far from "good gambles".

I will predict that by draft day there will be 3-4 QBs who are graded as 1st rounders(non top 4).

With this is mind....if I were GM....

I would assume that I won't have a top 4 pick in the following draft....and also assume that I will not be able to trade up into the top 4 ala Redskins 2012 draft.
I would wait until my pick to see how many(if any) QBs have been selected.
Assuming the number selected is 2 less than the number of predicted 1st round QB talent.....I would endeavour to....

Ttrade down in the 1st round.....hopefully picking up another 2nd round pick....and another 4th

Round 1: QB

Trade down in 2nd round.  Pick up an additional 3rd, 4th & 5th pick

Round 2: WR
Round 2: LB
Round 3: QB
Round 3: OL
Round 4: CB
Round 4: LB
Round 4: LB
Round 5: WR
Round 5: LB
Round 6: BPA
Round 7: BPA

Prior to draft....
Re-sign Levitre, Byrd, McKelvin
Cut Fitz, Brad Smith, Kelsay, McGee....maybe Barnett depending on assessment from new defensive coaches.
Sign FA LB
Sign FA WR