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Kaepernick and the 2013 draft


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#1 1billsfan

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Posted 03 February 2013 - 09:21 AM

I just went to the forum archive and searched "Colin Kaepernick". In a word, painful. In another word, why. I'm not posting the links because it's not fair to the people who didn't like Kaepernick at all. It seems I was very high on Newton and didn't even give Kaepernick a second thought. I was amazed at some of the people here who were dead on about this guy. Big props for that.

I will be watching the Superbowl today with some anger that the Bills took Williams when they could drafted had Kaepernick. I'll wonder what was going on in the Bills draft room that day. Were they scared off of him because he looked (not size) and played a similar style of QB to JP Losman and they "didn't want to go there"? Did they really like him, but as a 3rd round pick? There had to be a discussion because there were a lot of discussions here about drafting Kaepernick in the second. Maybe Buddy's comments about now having to draft QBs a round earlier than you'd like pertains specifically to Colin Kaepernick.

With all that being said, this 2013 class of QBs draft looks very similar to the 2011 class of QBs. There will probably be three solid starters and one unexpected breakout franchise QB with a bunch of busts mixed in. Right now, I think that breakout stud guy is EJ Manuel, but I like Tyler Wilson as well. I guess my point in all this is that the Bills need to get it right in the 2013 draft. If that means drafting a QB with the #8 when he's projected as a round later, then so be it.

Edited by 1billsfan, 03 February 2013 - 09:22 AM.


#2 mrags

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Posted 03 February 2013 - 09:40 AM

I was one of the ones that wanted CK. in fact after watching him a little but in college I came to the conclusion that he would have a better career than Cam. I stand by that fact and believe he will be the most successful QB of that class. Hopefully he won't get severely injured and lose significant playing time in his career cause I think he will be very fun to watch for a long time.

On a similar subject, I believe RG3 will be done within 3 years. He will never have a good career because he is more fragile than Vick and that says a lot.

#3 FluffHead

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Posted 03 February 2013 - 09:41 AM

I was in the same boat.  Loved Cam, unsure on Kaep.  They are certainly the best two quarterbacks to come out that season.  But remember, Kaep has only started 10 or 11 games (I think that may haunt him in the big game tonight).  He could certainly hit that sophomore slump once teams figure him out a bit.

Sorry if my comment hijacks this into a EJ Manuel thread, but Manuel has been a guy labeled as a "breakout candidate" the last two years in college and it never materialized.  Inconsistent thrower, comes up small in big games, and he is a capable but not dynamic runner.  I just don't see it breaking out in the NFL when it never did in college.

#4 1billsfan

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Posted 03 February 2013 - 10:14 AM

View PostFluffHead, on 03 February 2013 - 09:41 AM, said:

I was in the same boat.  Loved Cam, unsure on Kaep.  They are certainly the best two quarterbacks to come out that season.  But remember, Kaep has only started 10 or 11 games (I think that may haunt him in the big game tonight).  He could certainly hit that sophomore slump once teams figure him out a bit.

Sorry if my comment hijacks this into a EJ Manuel thread, but Manuel has been a guy labeled as a "breakout candidate" the last two years in college and it never materialized.  Inconsistent thrower, comes up small in big games, and he is a capable but not dynamic runner.  I just don't see it breaking out in the NFL when it never did in college.

One thing about Manuel is that he found out in september that his mother had breast cancer. He was still able to mentally keep it together mentally with a solid season. That is substantial to me. His bad performance in the Florida game could also be attributable to his mom being there for senior day and him losing it emotionally when she came onto the field. He's still a kid and I can understand him losing focus that day.

As for not coming up big in big games, he does have a 4-0 bowl record and he had a great senior bowl looking very calm and comfortable against the best senior players in this class. It's still early in the draft season, but he's been my guy who I think will be the safest bet for a franchise, and even possible elite, QB in this class.

#5 jr1

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Posted 03 February 2013 - 10:18 AM

EJ completed 68% of his passes this season

#6 Doc

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Posted 03 February 2013 - 10:22 AM

To me, Manuel has the most upside.  I'd take him, and it it's at #8, so be it.

#7 old school

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Posted 03 February 2013 - 10:28 AM

View Post1billsfan, on 03 February 2013 - 09:21 AM, said:

I guess my point in all this is that the Bills need to get it right in the 2013 draft. If that means drafting a QB with the #8 when he's projected as a round later, then so be it.

^^^This ^^^

They absolutely need to get it right in the draft this year. That's why I can't believe all those clamoring for J Russell, Flynn, T Jax, A Smith, etc would think Marrone would do that. I have to believe the new coach is going to want a fresh new young drafted QB, not some retread with hopes of resurrecting them. The risk of the latter is to great imo and not a choice a new coach is willing to take if he wants to continue being a head coach in the NFL. Chan Gailey anybody. A different mindset and different approach is needed and that has begun with hiring a college coach for the first time. Next different approach is a top flight QB in this draft.

#8 DukeyBomb

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Posted 03 February 2013 - 11:11 AM

The bottom line as to why Nix avoided to draft a QB in the last three years is two reasons. 1) Nix wanted to build the team first to insert any QB in to the team with which would give him the most opportunity for success. 2) He made a foolhardy decision to put too many eggs in to one basket with Fitz. Nix wanted to see if he had what it takes on a better team. But either way Chan and Fitz were not the right recipe. There is no guarantee in the NFL. If Williams was a shut down coener right now the majority would be very pleased instead of being overly critical and insensitive.

#9 BobChalmers

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Posted 03 February 2013 - 11:30 AM

View Post1billsfan, on 03 February 2013 - 09:21 AM, said:

Did they really like him, but as a 3rd round pick? There had to be a discussion because there were a lot of discussions here about drafting Kaepernick in the second. Maybe Buddy's comments about now having to draft QBs a round earlier than you'd like pertains specifically to Colin Kaepernick.

I am pretty convinced the one player Buddy's comment is most refering to is actually Kirk Cousins.

The Bills had him in town before the draft and I really don't think he would have gotten past them in the fourth, but the Redskins surprised them taking a second QB so soon - just a few picks before their own.

#10 KOKBILLS

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Posted 03 February 2013 - 11:41 AM

View PostBobChalmers, on 03 February 2013 - 11:30 AM, said:

I am pretty convinced the one player Buddy's comment is most refering to is actually Kirk Cousins.

The Bills had him in town before the draft and I really don't think he would have gotten past them in the fourth, but the Redskins surprised them taking a second QB so soon - just a few picks before their own.

I thought it was more about Russell Wilson...But maybe it was Cousins...Buddy did say they liked Wilson a lot and that the height issue was not a deterrent for the Bills...Both Cousins and Wilson visited OBD...But could they seriously have been thinking Cousins would still be around in the 5th? I mean...The 5th is pretty late... B-)

#11 fansince88

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Posted 03 February 2013 - 11:46 AM

I for onewanted the Bills to Draft CK and all of the great players for the last ten years that we passed on. Every great player! Those were the ones I
wanted them to draft. I cant think of there names at the moment but I wanted them to draft all of them. I wanted them to draft all the players that we drafted that have been great and did not want them to draft the ones that were not that good. :rolleyes:

#12 San Jose Bills Fan

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Posted 03 February 2013 - 12:20 PM

My recollection is that I was pretty strongly pro-Kaepernick and that my only reservation was that he had a bit of an odd throwing motion.

I remember spouting a fondness for him being a 2-sport athlete and taking over the starting job as a redshirt freshman. I loved that he was essentially a 4-year starter. As a sophomore he was conference player of the year and was the bowl MVP.

He was the first player in NCAA history to pass for over 2000 yards and rush for over 1000 yards, in 3 consecutive seasons and he joined Tebow as the only FBS QBs to both throw and run for at least 20 TDs in one season. Kaep is the only FBS QB to pass for over 10,000 yards and rush for over 4000 yards in a career.

He graduated with honors with a business management degree.

At just under 6'5" and 233 pounds, he ran a 4.53 at the combine and had the highest-velocity throws of any quarterback since they started measuring that in 2008 with throws over 60 mph.

Kaep played well in big games with the exception of the 2009 Hawaii Bowl.

Besides his throwing motion and the level of competition, there was nothing to not like about the kid.

Nothing.

There was talk whether he should go in the first round.

In the second round he was a steal.

#13 BobChalmers

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Posted 03 February 2013 - 12:22 PM

View PostKOKBILLS, on 03 February 2013 - 11:41 AM, said:

..But could they seriously have been thinking Cousins would still be around in the 5th? I mean...The 5th is pretty late... B-)

No I think they were thinking 4th for Cousins - but the 'skins picked a few spots in front of Buffalo. I assume they were surprised the Redskins took a second QB.

So for the Bills to get him they'd have had to trade up or grab him in the 3rd.

Edited by BobChalmers, 03 February 2013 - 12:23 PM.


#14 thebandit27

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Posted 03 February 2013 - 01:01 PM

View PostKOKBILLS, on 03 February 2013 - 11:41 AM, said:

I thought it was more about Russell Wilson...But maybe it was Cousins...Buddy did say they liked Wilson a lot and that the height issue was not a deterrent for the Bills...Both Cousins and Wilson visited OBD...But could they seriously have been thinking Cousins would still be around in the 5th? I mean...The 5th is pretty late... B-)

It was Wilson

#15 Cap'nCrunch

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Posted 03 February 2013 - 01:15 PM

This thread teaches from experience that college QB potential can be identified by those of us who are amateur scouts doing this for fun (if only the higher profile players).  The Bills are in a good position to get a top 3 QB this year.  Even though the experts say this is a down year for drafting a QB, we may never see an Andrew Luck or RGIII type of draft for another generation.  Most college QBs, on the other hand, have more training and better coaching than ever.  For the Bills, this is the year for re-booting the QB position.  Add me to the the list of EJ Manuel believers, and if he is taken by the Bills at #8, the rest of the draft will fall into place, ie MLB, WR, OLB and whatever other BPA we can find.

In Buddy We Trust.

#16 BobChalmers

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Posted 03 February 2013 - 01:33 PM

View PostCap, on 03 February 2013 - 01:15 PM, said:

This thread teaches from experience that college QB potential can be identified by those of us who are amateur scouts doing this for fun (if only the higher profile players).  The Bills are in a good position to get a top 3 QB this year.  Even though the experts say this is a down year for drafting a QB, we may never see an Andrew Luck or RGIII type of draft for another generation.  Most college QBs, on the other hand, have more training and better coaching than ever.  For the Bills, this is the year for re-booting the QB position.  Add me to the the list of EJ Manuel believers, and if he is taken by the Bills at #8, the rest of the draft will fall into place, ie MLB, WR, OLB and whatever other BPA we can find.

In Buddy We Trust.

Wow Manuel at #8 - yikes.  I'd like him in the 2nd, and we'd probably have to trade back into the first to get him, but he's awfully scary at 8.

#17 OldTimer1960

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Posted 03 February 2013 - 02:13 PM

View Post1billsfan, on 03 February 2013 - 09:21 AM, said:


With all that being said, this 2013 class of QBs draft looks very similar to the 2011 class of QBs. There will probably be three solid starters and one unexpected breakout franchise QB with a bunch of busts mixed in. Right now, I think that breakout stud guy is EJ Manuel, but I like Tyler Wilson as well. I guess my point in all this is that the Bills need to get it right in the 2013 draft. If that means drafting a QB with the #8 when he's projected as a round later, then so be it.

I hope that you are right, but draft history suggests that this view is highly optimistic (that there will be 3 solid starting NFL QBs plus a star "unexpected" later round QB).  There are several years where ZERO good starting NFL QBs come out of the draft.  It is indeed very rare to have more than 1 or 2 good starting QBs in a draft.

I will agree that it seems that it seems to be becoming more common to find decent-to-good starting QBs in the draft.  It could be that the NFL rules now allow lesser passers to succeed in the league (with more restrictions on the defenses), it might be because NFL coaches are more willing to adapt their offenses to a more diverse QB skill set, but then it might be that we've just had a couple of exceptional drafts.  I'll even mention that it is possible that some of the young QBs who have started out so well, might be flashes in the pan and will fade into oblivion.  

I remain hopeful, but quite skeptical, that the Bills will be able to find a long-term good starting QB in this draft.  I am not a scout by any means, but I am a long-time draft fanatic and I have read everything that I could find on the draft for the past 25+ years.  It hasn't been uncommon for QBs to be talked up and over-hyped.  I don't even hear that this year.  What I hear is, "man, wish we could find a QB or two to get excited about, but all that I see are prospects with some talent and some big concerns."

#18 1billsfan

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Posted 03 February 2013 - 02:29 PM

View PostOldTimer1960, on 03 February 2013 - 02:13 PM, said:

I hope that you are right, but draft history suggests that this view is highly optimistic (that there will be 3 solid starting NFL QBs plus a star "unexpected" later round QB).  There are several years where ZERO good starting NFL QBs come out of the draft.  It is indeed very rare to have more than 1 or 2 good starting QBs in a draft.

I will agree that it seems that it seems to be becoming more common to find decent-to-good starting QBs in the draft. It could be that the NFL rules now allow lesser passers to succeed in the league (with more restrictions on the defenses), it might be because NFL coaches are more willing to adapt their offenses to a more diverse QB skill set, but then it might be that we've just had a couple of exceptional drafts.  I'll even mention that it is possible that some of the young QBs who have started out so well, might be flashes in the pan and will fade into oblivion.  

I remain hopeful, but quite skeptical, that the Bills will be able to find a long-term good starting QB in this draft.  I am not a scout by any means, but I am a long-time draft fanatic and I have read everything that I could find on the draft for the past 25+ years.  It hasn't been uncommon for QBs to be talked up and over-hyped.  I don't even hear that this year.  What I hear is, "man, wish we could find a QB or two to get excited about, but all that I see are prospects with some talent and some big concerns."


You've hit on a MAJOR reason for it. QBs are no longer scared of getting hit. You match that with fearless athletic talent and you get the early successes of Luck, Newton, RGIII, Kaepernick and Wilson.

EJ Manuel perfectly fits the new model of early QB success. Athletic, scrambling, fearless QB with a very good arm who can easily have a quick rise to success against the toothless defenses of today's NFL.

#19 Doc

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Posted 03 February 2013 - 04:12 PM

View Post1billsfan, on 03 February 2013 - 02:29 PM, said:

You've hit on a MAJOR reason for it. QBs are no longer scared of getting hit. You match that with fearless athletic talent and you get the early successes of Luck, Newton, RGIII, Kaepernick and Wilson.

EJ Manuel perfectly fits the new model of early QB success. Athletic, scrambling, fearless QB with a very good arm who can easily have a quick rise to success against the toothless defenses of today's NFL.
With the new trend towards read-option, it makes it even easier on those types of QB's.

#20 San Jose Bills Fan

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Posted 03 February 2013 - 04:23 PM

View Post1billsfan, on 03 February 2013 - 02:29 PM, said:

EJ Manuel perfectly fits the new model of early QB success. Athletic, scrambling, fearless QB with a very good arm who can easily have a quick rise to success against the toothless defenses of today's NFL.

I like EJ Manuel and agree that he has tremendous upside.

But others have pointed out that characterizing him as a "scrambler" is not really accurate.

As a 4-year starter he did rush 298 times for 827 yards, an average of 2.8 ypr. But while he ran the ball often, he didn't do so very effectively except that he did have 11 rushing TDs.

I think what we saw in the Senior Bowl is probably indicative of Manuel's rushing abilities: He ran for a TD although it was a short distance from the goal line, he didn't look particularly good doing it, and it was unclear whether he had broken the plane.

Probably he's an opportunistic rusher more than an effective one.