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The arguement for taking a QB in Rd. 1


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#1 ChevyVanMiller

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 06:44 PM

This quote is from an ESPN article on the Jets' pruning of their roster:

This especially holds true for quality quarterbacks. The Jets' front office has studied this very closely, determining that only five winning quarterbacks (in their opinion) weren't drafted by their current team -- Drew Brees, Jay Cutler, Peyton Manning, Tony Romo and Matt Schaub.

I know this draft appears bereft of quility QBs, but if the Bills braintrust (oxymoron?) believes there is a franchise guy there, they'd better grab him. Free Agency is not the answer. Great teams are built by drafting great QBs as step #1.

#2 BADOLBEELZ

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 06:56 PM

View PostChevyVanMiller, on 19 February 2013 - 06:44 PM, said:

This quote is from an ESPN article on the Jets' pruning of their roster:

This especially holds true for quality quarterbacks. The Jets' front office has studied this very closely, determining that only five winning quarterbacks (in their opinion) weren't drafted by their current team -- Drew Brees, Jay Cutler, Peyton Manning, Tony Romo and Matt Schaub.

I know this draft appears bereft of quility QBs, but if the Bills braintrust (oxymoron?) believes there is a franchise guy there, they'd better grab him. Free Agency is not the answer. Great teams are built by drafting great QBs as step #1.

And they should take another one next year if there is any doubt that the one they drafted this year isn't going to work out.

You don't miss the playoffs for 13 years in a row because you didn't draft enough Stephon Gilmore's.  

I defy anyone to show me how the Bills would be worse off than they are now if they had drafted a QB in the first round of every one of those 13 drafts.

#3 HoF Watkins

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 07:00 PM

View PostBADOLBEELZ, on 19 February 2013 - 06:56 PM, said:

And they should take another one next year if there is any doubt that the one they drafted this year isn't going to work out.

You don't miss the playoffs for 13 years in a row because you didn't draft enough Stephon Gilmore's.  

I defy anyone to show me how the Bills would be worse off than they are now if they had drafted a QB in the first round of every one of those 13 drafts.
Exactly. In fact, they are so behind the 8-ball at this point, they should draft 2 in this draft. Get a QB! Another backup LB, or middle of the road D-lineman can wait....

#4 JTSP

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 07:01 PM

View PostChevyVanMiller, on 19 February 2013 - 06:44 PM, said:

This quote is from an ESPN article on the Jets' pruning of their roster:

This especially holds true for quality quarterbacks. The Jets' front office has studied this very closely, determining that only five winning quarterbacks (in their opinion) weren't drafted by their current team -- Drew Brees, Jay Cutler, Peyton Manning, Tony Romo and Matt Schaub.

I know this draft appears bereft of quility QBs, but if the Bills braintrust (oxymoron?) believes there is a franchise guy there, they'd better grab him. Free Agency is not the answer. Great teams are built by drafting great QBs as step #1.
How many "winning" QBs are there? Would seem like 5 over ?? should be a sizable percentage.

#5 KollegeStudnet

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 07:34 PM

Years ago, a fellow TSWer broke down the Bills history of drafting QB's in any round who lead the team into the playoffs

it was something below 15% success rate for playoff caliber Bills QB's drafted

I want to say the only drafted QB's by the Bills was Jim Kelly and Joe Ferguson

#6 NoSaint

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 07:38 PM

View PostJoe_the_6_pack, on 19 February 2013 - 07:01 PM, said:


How many "winning" QBs are there? Would seem like 5 over ?? should be a sizable percentage.

In theory, about 16? And romo was a priority UDFA for the cowboys.


I'm assuming the others are flacco, Ryan, Brady, Big Ben, Rodgers, e manning

And probably on luck, rg3, Wilson being included

Maybes for dalton, stafford, kaepernick. If you include romo and Schaub as winners these guys aren't far off

That's 17 if you include their 5

Couple that with manning being a 2-3 year guy in Denver likely, so not a long term answer.

It's easily a 2 to 1 ratio, and the ones drafted give you many more years with them on top of the raw quantity.

Edited by NoSaint, 19 February 2013 - 07:40 PM.


#7 BADOLBEELZ

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 07:41 PM

View PostKollegeStudnet, on 19 February 2013 - 07:34 PM, said:

Years ago, a fellow TSWer broke down the Bills history of drafting QB's in any round who lead the team into the playoffs

it was something below 15% success rate for playoff caliber Bills QB's drafted

I want to say the only drafted QB's by the Bills was Jim Kelly and Joe Ferguson

Well, it has been 53 years since the Bills drafted a QB with their actual first pick in any draft so they haven't exactly been all-in on the value of quarterbacking.  Even Kelly was second banana for the Bills in 1983 to:  Hunter, Tony  TE  University of Notre Dame.

#8 Hotpockets28

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 07:41 PM

dont know how many times I have to say this but....MATT BARKLEY!!!!!!!!! This kid will make every single team that skips on him regret it BIG TIME. Barkley had three outstanding years at usc..and a so called ""downyear where he put up 3,000+ yards 36 tds 15ints...thats still dammmmm good...if he drops to #8 and the bills who desperately need a Qb dont draft him i will @#+$ myself...barkley might not never be  "" elite"" as a pro but he will turn out to be dam good......a solid starting caliber qb in the right offense

Edited by Hotpockets28, 19 February 2013 - 07:45 PM.


#9 the skycap

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 08:17 PM

Of those 5 QBs mentioned only 2 were drafted in the 1st.rd. So your point is?

#10 JPCinTULLY

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 08:19 PM

View PostHotpockets28, on 19 February 2013 - 07:41 PM, said:

dont know how many times I have to say this but....MATT BARKLEY!!!!!!!!! This kid will make every single team that skips on him regret it BIG TIME. Barkley had three outstanding years at usc..and a so called ""downyear where he put up 3,000+ yards 36 tds 15ints...thats still dammmmm good...if he drops to #8 and the bills who desperately need a Qb dont draft him i will @#+$ myself...barkley might not never be  "" elite"" as a pro but he will turn out to be dam good......a solid starting caliber qb in the right offense
blah,blah.blah ..just another california wuss qb

#11 Triple Threat

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 08:49 PM

View PostHotpockets28, on 19 February 2013 - 07:41 PM, said:

dont know how many times I have to say this but....MATT BARKLEY!!!!!!!!! This kid will make every single team that skips on him regret it BIG TIME. Barkley had three outstanding years at usc..and a so called ""downyear where he put up 3,000+ yards 36 tds 15ints...thats still dammmmm good...if he drops to #8 and the bills who desperately need a Qb dont draft him i will @#+$ myself...barkley might not never be  "" elite"" as a pro but he will turn out to be dam good......a solid starting caliber qb in the right offense

I'd be on board with him if it wasn't for his very weak arm.  I know evaluators keep trying to say his arm is better when they see it live, but it's pretty weak.  That kind of arm doesn't translate well in the NFL.

#12 BADOLBEELZ

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 09:01 PM

View PostTriple Threat, on 19 February 2013 - 08:49 PM, said:

I'd be on board with him if it wasn't for his very weak arm.  I know evaluators keep trying to say his arm is better when they see it live, but it's pretty weak.  That kind of arm doesn't translate well in the NFL.

All the quality QB's who have emerged from the last two drafts seem to have picked up a few mph on their fastball at the pro level.  Is this because of the difference in the NFL ball, which is supposedly narrower around and longer, making it more aerodynamic?  I believe last year it was Phil Simms who questioned Andrew Luck's arm strength and he came in throwing bullets this year.

#13 CarolinaBill

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 09:21 PM

View PostJPCinTULLY, on 19 February 2013 - 08:19 PM, said:

blah,blah.blah ..just another california wuss qb
Yeah, brady and Elway, and Rodgers are a bunch of loser pussies!!!! Good argument

#14 Hotpockets28

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 09:30 PM

Weak arm???? Huh????? Just because barkley doest throw bullets on every throw doesnt mean he isnt capable......i have seen barkley launch 60+ yard bombs to M lee a few times and dead on in stride....tell me this when have you ever seen picksgarbage throw 60+yards (all in the air)..dam dude cant throw it farther then 45 yards I believe let alone accurately.....barkley has more then enough arm strenght....

#15 Dean Cain

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 09:44 PM

Mike Glennon seems to me to be the quickest guy who can translate his game to the NFL.

#16 Dibs

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 09:48 PM

View PostChevyVanMiller, on 19 February 2013 - 06:44 PM, said:

This quote is from an ESPN article on the Jets' pruning of their roster:

This especially holds true for quality quarterbacks. The Jets' front office has studied this very closely, determining that only five winning quarterbacks (in their opinion) weren't drafted by their current team -- Drew Brees, Jay Cutler, Peyton Manning, Tony Romo and Matt Schaub.

I know this draft appears bereft of quility QBs, but if the Bills braintrust (oxymoron?) believes there is a franchise guy there, they'd better grab him. Free Agency is not the answer. Great teams are built by drafting great QBs as step #1.

Though I agree with the premise that drafting a QB is generally the only way to obtain a top notch QB, I think that only looking at "winning QBs" is not the best way to view things.

IMO having a QB like Cutler & Romo(maybe Schaub?) is overall detrimental to your team.....and long term, likely will be worse for the organization they play for than having a Fitz.
QBs who are good but not great will regularly win games and get your team into the playoffs.  They will make a few pro bowls and generally be good for the fans as their team is regularly having some success.

They will not however have much chance at all of leading their team to a championship win(great QBs do that).  They command a hefty cap number & usually keep their team from obtaining the top prospects in the draft.  While they are on the roster and maintaining a decent level of play their team is unlikely to seek out(via draft) a better QB replacement.....thus the team is unlikely to win a SB in their playing lifetime.




Historically there are virtually no great QBs who move teams.  Obviously any team that has one is usually willing to break the bank to keep them.
The only exceptions are due to age and injury.....with the unlikely possibility of a star in waiting backing up a star QB.

Favre, Montana, P. Manning are examples of great QBs who moved from their original teams in the latter stages of their careers.  Manning being unusual in that due to the Luck factor(Andrew that is), he moved teams perhaps a year or two before his age became a major issue.

Warner, Palmer & Brees are examples of injury causing team change.  Brees being subject to an astounding confluence of events which led to him being(IMO) the only true Star QB entering their prime & being relatively healthy to ever hit the open market.

Schaub, Hasselbeck, Cassel & Brunell are examples of winning QBs who have left their teams due to being backups behind entrenched starters.  Schaub is perhaps the only one in history that shows that he might be of elite level.



In short, without an elite QB you have a miniscule chance to win a SB......and since there is a miniscule chance of finding one via FA or Trade.....the draft is the only way to do it.
Furthering to that, if you are not taking one within the top 36 picks in the draft, you have virtually no chance of finding your star QB.  (Some numbers here supporting this claim: http://forums.twobil...b/#entry2712778)

#17 Ed_Formerly_of_Roch

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 10:10 PM

As they say, figures don't lie, but lairs figure!!

Wow talk about a misleading stat.  So five winning QB's weren't drafted by their current team, well how many winning QB's are out there, maybe around 15?

Second if you're not still on the team that drafted you, that likely means either you really sucked and/or you've played out your first contract which means you've been around for 4 to 5 years.  Well the percentage of players who are still in the league after five years and not already a star drops quite a bit, so likely you either are a star and your first team re-signed you, or you're not very good to begin with and may not even still be in the league.  So no surprise the number is low.

Three of those five only left their original team due to some un-common circumstances, Schaub and Brees had another QB on the roster who was even better or PM due to injury and being old.  Cutler was more a head case.  Which to me further proves point that good QB's never see free agency.

I can't help but wonder if Rex Ryan figured this out on his own??  He probably quit after five as that's how many toes his wife has.

#18 Dibs

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 10:26 PM

View PostEd_Roch, on 19 February 2013 - 10:10 PM, said:

As they say, figures don't lie, but lairs figure!!

Wow talk about a misleading stat.  So five winning QB's weren't drafted by their current team, well how many winning QB's are out there, maybe around 15?

Second if you're not still on the team that drafted you, that likely means either you really sucked and/or you've played out your first contract which means you've been around for 4 to 5 years.  Well the percentage of players who are still in the league after five years and not already a star drops quite a bit, so likely you either are a star and your first team re-signed you, or you're not very good to begin with and may not even still be in the league.  So no surprise the number is low.

Three of those five only left their original team due to some un-common circumstances, Schaub and Brees had another QB on the roster who was even better or PM due to injury and being old.  Cutler was more a head case.  Which to me further proves point that good QB's never see free agency.

I can't help but wonder if Rex Ryan figured this out on his own??  He probably quit after five as that's how many toes his wife has.

I don't quite understand your point here....

You seem to be initially stating that the stats are misleading/wrong etc......yet you then progress to explain why the stats are actually a legitimate representation of the concept that good QBs never(rarely) see FA.
You then finish again with a statement supporting your initial one.

I'm confused. :unsure:

#19 KOKBILLS

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 10:32 PM

View PostBADOLBEELZ, on 19 February 2013 - 06:56 PM, said:

And they should take another one next year if there is any doubt that the one they drafted this year isn't going to work out.

You don't miss the playoffs for 13 years in a row because you didn't draft enough Stephon Gilmore's.  

I defy anyone to show me how the Bills would be worse off than they are now if they had drafted a QB in the first round of every one of those 13 drafts.

Agreed 100%... B-)

#20 Dibs

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 11:01 PM

View PostBADOLBEELZ, on 19 February 2013 - 06:56 PM, said:

And they should take another one next year if there is any doubt that the one they drafted this year isn't going to work out.

You don't miss the playoffs for 13 years in a row because you didn't draft enough Stephon Gilmore's.  

I defy anyone to show me how the Bills would be worse off than they are now if they had drafted a QB in the first round of every one of those 13 drafts.

You are not wrong....
We'd have had Brees in 2001.....and if we somehow lost him we would have had Flacco in 2008.