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Just How Little Draft Evaluations Mean...

An example

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#1 thebandit27

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Posted 27 February 2013 - 01:27 PM

Just wanted to point something out as we approach the 2013 draft.  You're going to hear a lot about how certain guys are "8-10 year starters" etc.  Well, just remember that nobody has a clue what they're talking about in this regard.

With today's trade of Alex Smith, I decided to take a look at the 2005 draft, as it was held 8 years ago.  Here's what I found...

- Out of 32 first-round picks, only 8 are still with their remaining teams:

Demarcus Ware - Dal (starter)
Thomas Davis - Car (starter)
Derrick Johnson - KC (starter)
Marcus Spears - Dal (backup)
Aaron Rodgers - GB (starter)
Roddy White - Atl (starter)
Heath Miller - Pit (starter)
Logan Mankins - NE (starter)

- Not a single top 10 pick is still on the team that drafted them

- Out of 32 second-round picks, only 3 are still with their original teams:

Michael Roos - Ten (starter)
Corey Webster - NYG (starter)
Jonathan Babineaux - Atl (starter)

So just keep in mind that--as we analyze prospects and try to determine who successfully adds talent that will help in the long-term--nobody really knows what the results will be years from now.

#2 T master

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Posted 27 February 2013 - 01:40 PM

Who was our pick back then ??

#3 jeremy2020

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Posted 27 February 2013 - 01:41 PM

View PostT master, on 27 February 2013 - 01:40 PM, said:

Who was our pick back then ??

It was traded to Dallas.

The 2nd Pick was Roscoe Parrish.

Edited by jeremy2020, 27 February 2013 - 01:41 PM.


#4 thebandit27

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Posted 27 February 2013 - 01:41 PM

View PostT master, on 27 February 2013 - 01:40 PM, said:

Who was our pick back then ??

No 1st rounder...traded it for Losman the previous year.  Drafted Roscoe Parrish in the 2nd (55 overall) ahead of Vincent Jackson.

Edited by thebandit27, 27 February 2013 - 01:42 PM.


#5 Pete

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Posted 27 February 2013 - 01:42 PM

Roscoe Parrish over Justin Tuck :sick:

Basically what I get from your post and looking at the 2005 draft- if the player drafted was good- they were signed long term by the team that drafted them

#6 ALF

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Posted 27 February 2013 - 01:58 PM

Excellent info by OP, thanks, drafting is a lot harder then it looks. I won't be so critical of buddy now , but wish we could draft like SF or NE

#7 Homey D. Clown

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Posted 27 February 2013 - 02:48 PM

I'd like to add a little 1st round draft trivia factoid if I may:

All 3 of Buddy Nix's 1st round selections are still on the roster, either performing at a high level, or pro bowlers.  Seriously think about that for a minute.  I know the team's fortunes haven't been all that great, but it really says a lot when the team is now hitting on their 1st round picks for once, and that they are very good additions to a team that has been starved of talent for a very long time.

Given the excellent info provided by the OP, that says a lot to what Buddy has contributed so far.  Not all is doom and gloom in the front office, well with the exception of douche-bag Russ Brandon.

#8 Dibs

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Posted 27 February 2013 - 02:51 PM

View Postthebandit27, on 27 February 2013 - 01:27 PM, said:

Just wanted to point something out as we approach the 2013 draft.  You're going to hear a lot about how certain guys are "8-10 year starters" etc.  Well, just remember that nobody has a clue what they're talking about in this regard.

With today's trade of Alex Smith, I decided to take a look at the 2005 draft, as it was held 8 years ago.  Here's what I found...

- Out of 32 first-round picks, only 8 are still with their remaining teams:

Demarcus Ware - Dal (starter)
Thomas Davis - Car (starter)
Derrick Johnson - KC (starter)
Marcus Spears - Dal (backup)
Aaron Rodgers - GB (starter)
Roddy White - Atl (starter)
Heath Miller - Pit (starter)
Logan Mankins - NE (starter)

- Not a single top 10 pick is still on the team that drafted them

- Out of 32 second-round picks, only 3 are still with their original teams:

Michael Roos - Ten (starter)
Corey Webster - NYG (starter)
Jonathan Babineaux - Atl (starter)

So just keep in mind that--as we analyze prospects and try to determine who successfully adds talent that will help in the long-term--nobody really knows what the results will be years from now.

I've been covering this concept in some drafting studies I've done.....but basing it on 5 years of starting over a 20 year period.

If you are interested in the results:
QB: http://forums.twobil...b/#entry2712778
LB: http://forums.twobil...b/#entry2714704
WR: http://forums.twobil...r/#entry2718875
OL: http://forums.twobil...l/#entry2733652

#9 Nitro

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Posted 27 February 2013 - 03:11 PM

That draft had plenty of first round busts, reachs and guys with questionable off field behavior. More than usual. Only a few have had sustained high levels of play. I think this years draft will yeild a core of solid starters and a few pro bowlers but no superstar.

#10 C.Biscuit97

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Posted 27 February 2013 - 03:18 PM

Good post.  For some reason, people think the draft is a science but it's a crapshoot.  It's a lot of luck.  Bill Polian, who some think is the best GM ever, built a team that went 2-14 without one player.  The Bills, who people think are the worst franchise ever, have gone 7-9 starting Losman and Edwards.

I think the biggest problem with the Bills is their ignoring of the QB position in the draft.  Once you get a QB, other pieces fall into place.  The Bills need to develop a pick every year at QB until they finally find a guy.

#11 Triple Threat

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Posted 27 February 2013 - 03:28 PM

View PostC.Biscuit97, on 27 February 2013 - 03:18 PM, said:

Good post.  For some reason, people think the draft is a science but it's a crapshoot.  It's a lot of luck.  Bill Polian, who some think is the best GM ever, built a team that went 2-14 without one player.  The Bills, who people think are the worst franchise ever, have gone 7-9 starting Losman and Edwards.

I think the biggest problem with the Bills is their ignoring of the QB position in the draft.  Once you get a QB, other pieces fall into place.  The Bills need to develop a pick every year at QB until they finally find a guy.

Thank you for posting this, it's exactly the way I've felt for a long time.

#12 BillsVet

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Posted 27 February 2013 - 03:33 PM

View PostHomey D. Clown, on 27 February 2013 - 02:48 PM, said:

I'd like to add a little 1st round draft trivia factoid if I may:

All 3 of Buddy Nix's 1st round selections are still on the roster, either performing at a high level, or pro bowlers.  Seriously think about that for a minute.  I know the team's fortunes haven't been all that great, but it really says a lot when the team is now hitting on their 1st round picks for once, and that they are very good additions to a team that has been starved of talent for a very long time.

Given the excellent info provided by the OP, that says a lot to what Buddy has contributed so far.  Not all is doom and gloom in the front office, well with the exception of douche-bag Russ Brandon.

Hitting on your first round pick is not a bonus, it's a requirement to winning consistently.  The true measure of a GM and his personnel department is how well they do in rounds 2-4.  Who are the starters from those rounds from 2010-11? (not judging 2012 yet)  Troup, Carrington, Easley, A. Williams, Sheppard, Searcy, Hairston?  Any of those guys proven and dependable starters going into 2013?      

Not to mention, Buddy hasn't found a QB, hasn't drafted a dependable WR, and is now working with his 2nd HC in 4 seasons.

It is preposterous that a GM who has "built" a team that went 6-10 after 3 off-seasons of rebuilding is lauded for anything.  Goodness how much further can the standard get lowered.

#13 Why So Serious?

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Posted 27 February 2013 - 03:43 PM

8 years is an eternity in the NFL might as well do a 50 year study.

4 or 5 years is way more interesting. At 5 years almost all rookie contracts would have expired.

#14 Hopeful

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Posted 27 February 2013 - 03:44 PM

View Postthebandit27, on 27 February 2013 - 01:27 PM, said:

Just wanted to point something out as we approach the 2013 draft.  You're going to hear a lot about how certain guys are "8-10 year starters" etc.  Well, just remember that nobody has a clue what they're talking about in this regard.

Very nice analysis

I might be out of it, but where is the talk about "8-10 yr starters"?

It's my understanding that the NFL claims the average career length of a guy who makes an opening-day roster is 6 yrs.
So to have many guys still be on the roster 8 yrs later, would be well above average career length

(NFLPA claims average length is 3.2 or 3.5 yrs, NFL says that's artificially deflated by including draftees who don't make a roster)

It would be most interesting to see what's up after 4-6 yrs

Edited by Hopeful, 27 February 2013 - 03:44 PM.


#15 JPS

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Posted 27 February 2013 - 03:44 PM

I'd be happy to get guys like Byrd and Levitre that are desirable FAs after their 1st contract. Buddy...meh.  Not sure he knows what he is building. You can't just keep getting "good players" and changing schemes. This team has no identity and I put that on him.

Now...if Buddy drafts a LT in the 1st and a complete TE in this draft, I would say it's a commitment to an identity.  It's what SF did. They threw a bunch of resources at the O-line until it was dominant.  I'm not saying it's right for the Bills, but it would indicate a vision.....but I do not expect it.

#16 DrDareustein

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Posted 27 February 2013 - 03:53 PM

View PostC.Biscuit97, on 27 February 2013 - 03:18 PM, said:

Good post.  For some reason, people think the draft is a science but it's a crapshoot.  It's a lot of luck.  Bill Polian, who some think is the best GM ever, built a team that went 2-14 without one player. The Bills, who people think are the worst franchise ever, have gone 7-9 starting Losman and Edwards.

I think the biggest problem with the Bills is their ignoring of the QB position in the draft.  Once you get a QB, other pieces fall into place.  The Bills need to develop a pick every year at QB until they finally find a guy.

Word.

Also, lets not forget that through Polian's time with the Bills, the draft was 12 rounds.

In the 1985 draft, Polian had 17 picks to work with. 17! Not only that, but the Bills were slotted to pick #1 overall through each round!

Buddy and Doug will be making the best out of 6 middle-of-the-pack picks this year.

#17 earthtobrint

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Posted 27 February 2013 - 03:55 PM

1.) The playing span of NFL players is a lot less than 8 years.  8 years is an eternity for an NFL player.
2.) Conveniently chosen was one of the worst draft classes in recent memory, with a couple busts and many careers cut short by injury.
3.) There are very very few players that stay with one team their entire career.  The "Currently playing on the team that drafted them" is a convenient way to leave off many of quality players from that draft class such as:

Jammal Brown was an All-Pro and Super Bowl champion with the Saints.
Shawn Merriman was All-Pro and Defensive Player of the Year before injuries.
Antrel Rolle has had Pro Bowl seasons in both Arizona and NY.  He was the starter on the Super Bowl winning Giants.
Cadillac Williams rushed for 1100 yards and won Rookie of the Year. He suffered a torn patellar tendon and was never the same.  The injury crippled a promising career.
Cedric Benson went on to have many 1000 yard rushing seasons with the Bengals.
Luis Castillo, Mike Patterson, Alex Smith, all long time quality starters on their drafted team through 2012.

I'm sure there are others I've missed or won't spend time going into detail about.  And that's just in the first round.

The list in the OP says nothing of anyone's ability to analyze players before the draft.  It speaks of the longevity of the career of an NFL player; how free agency, salary cap, and non-guaranteed contracts limit a player's time with one NFL franchise; and how often injury cuts short careers of the NFL player.

The list says nothing about the draft being unpredictable or a "crap shoot", though it is contrived in a manner to try to do so by the convenient choice of draft class, a draft class that was 8 years ago (longer than the average NFL player's career), and adding the qualifier "currently with their drafting team".

Edited by earthtobrint, 27 February 2013 - 04:06 PM.


#18 Cash

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Posted 27 February 2013 - 04:23 PM

Same methodology for the 2004 draft:
  • Eli Manning - NYG (starter) - please don't start any nonsense about how he was drafted by the Chargers.  It was a draft-day trade.  Whether the trade occurred before the selections or after is irrelevant.
  • Larry Fitzgerald - ARI (starter)
  • Philip Rivers - SD (starter)
  • Ben Roethlisberger - PIT (starter)
  • D.J. Williams - DEN (backup)
  • Will Smith - NO (starter)
  • Vince Wilfork - NE (starter)
  • Steven Jackson - STL (starter)
  • Chris Gamble - CAR (starter)
I don't have time to do the 2nd round, but I will do the 2006 first round:
  • D'Brickashaw Ferguson - NYJ (starter)
  • A.J. Hawk - GB (starter)
  • Vernon Davis - SF (starter)
  • Michael Huff - OAK (starter)
  • Haloti Ngata - BAL (starter)
  • Chad Greenway - MIN (starter)
  • Tamba Hali - KC (starter)
  • Davin Joseph - TB (starter in 2011, missed all last year w/ injury, may be a backup going forward)
  • DeAngelo Williams - CAR (part-time starter)
  • Marcedes Lewis - JAX (starter)
  • Nick Mangold - NYJ (starter)
  • Mathias Kiwanuka - NYG (starter)
So 9 from 2004 (8 starters), 8 from 2005 (7 starters), and 12 from 2006 (arguably 12 starters, though I wouldn't necessarily buy the argument).  2005 seems to be a slight dip in terms of 1st-round quality, because you'd expect this number to go down every year you go back.  I imagine the biggest dip would be between 5 years back and 6 years back, since most 1st-rounders get 5 year deals.

#19 KOKBILLS

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Posted 27 February 2013 - 04:33 PM

View PostNitro, on 27 February 2013 - 03:11 PM, said:

That draft had plenty of first round busts, reachs and guys with questionable off field behavior. More than usual. Only a few have had sustained high levels of play. I think this years draft will yeild a core of solid starters and a few pro bowlers but no superstar.

This is true...That happened to be an extraordinarily bad Draft...Though most would be surprised at the average percentages after 5 years or so...They are pretty low...Especially after you get out of the 2nd Round...I read not to long ago that something like 6% of 3rd Round Draft Picks end up being Starters in the NFL for 5 or more seasons...That's crazy low...And the reason I crack up when I read any Mock Draft evaluation that projects these great later Round finds to be starting material...It's really, really rare when that actually happens... B-)

#20 BADOLBEELZ

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Posted 27 February 2013 - 05:55 PM

View PostC.Biscuit97, on 27 February 2013 - 03:18 PM, said:

Good post.  For some reason, people think the draft is a science but it's a crapshoot.  It's a lot of luck.  Bill Polian, who some think is the best GM ever, built a team that went 2-14 without one player.  The Bills, who people think are the worst franchise ever, have gone 7-9 starting Losman and Edwards.

I think the biggest problem with the Bills is their ignoring of the QB position in the draft.  Once you get a QB, other pieces fall into place.  The Bills need to develop a pick every year at QB until they finally find a guy.

The draft is not a crapshoot.  Is there risk?  Of course.  But almost all of the exceptional players are selected in the first 3 rounds of any given draft.   Dibs has a very simple breakdown in this very thread.

And YES, the biggest problem with the Bills has been ignoring the QB position in the draft.  For the past 50 plus years.