26 replies to this topic

[BigCountryBills]

In the summer of 2011 Thurman Thomas caught a lot of flack from Atlanta Falcons fans stating the Falcons needed to "ease off" of Michael Turner.

“They need to start looking for another running back,” Thomas said.  “Michael Turner, when you carry that ball 300 times a year for a few years, it puts some wear and tear on your body. I think they need another running back to give him a break every now and again.” - See more at: http://blogs.ajc.com...h.uS3gnPoC.dpuf

Lo and behold yesterday Michael Turner was released. http://sports.yahoo....14228--nfl.html

Atlanta fans, how does that crow taste?

[NoSaint]

He's 31.... I hate to say it but at some point you say it's time to run him til the wheels come off. Only so long you can save a guy for.

He only carried it 301 in 2011. That's 18 carries a game. Hardly abusive and only his 3rd 300 touch season of his career too. So it's not like they were that hard on him.

Edited by NoSaint, 03 March 2013 - 12:24 AM.

[Dibs]

NoSaint, on 03 March 2013 - 12:18 AM, said:

He's 31.... I hate to say it but at some point you say it's time to run him til the wheels come off. Only so long you can save a guy for.

He only carried it 301 in 2011. That's 18 carries a game. Hardly abusive and only his 3rd 300 touch season of his career too. So it's not like they were that hard on him.

18.8.....but I won't quibble over that.

The league has changed in recent years regarding number of carries......therefore there is a misconception amongst most fans as to what constitutes a lot of carries & what doesn't.
People tout 25+ carries/game as a reasonable workhorse number.  That equates to 400 carries a year.....the last time this occurred was 7 years ago in 2006.....and since then only 5 RBs have rushed over 350 in a season....one being MT.

Here are the number of RBs to get 300+ carries a season since MT started at the Falcons.....(his rank is in brackets if he rushed over 300 that season).

2008: 5(1)
2009: 6.....injury year
2010: 7(1)
2011: 2(2)
2012: 5


The average is only 5 RBs per year......and 3 of the last 5 were led by MT.

[mitchmurraydowntown]

My car needs tires every 30K miles,  I'm now a soothsayer.

[Meathead]

i guess its off like a mofo

[Dadonkadonk]

Its age not number of carries...30+ year old running backs simply decline in productivity at an exponential rate.  Tomlinson and Alexander are the most recent glaring examples of guys who declined at a ridiculous rate.  If Nix had any balls he would have forced FJ to play out his last year of his contract and then thanked him for his contribution to the team which was next to nothing this year.  This franchise has drafted two running backs in the first round, signed a 30+ year old to an extension, and drafted one 7th round QB in the last 5 years.  Is there no wonder this team is irrelevant???

[BigCountryBills]

Dadonkadonk, on 03 March 2013 - 02:01 AM, said:

Its age not number of carries...30+ year old running backs simply decline in productivity at an exponential rate.  Tomlinson and Alexander are the most recent glaring examples of guys who declined at a ridiculous rate.  If Nix had any balls he would have forced FJ to play out his last year of his contract and then thanked him for his contribution to the team which was next to nothing this year.  This franchise has drafted two running backs in the first round, signed a 30+ year old to an extension, and drafted one 7th round QB in the last 5 years.  Is there no wonder this team is irrelevant???

Which begs the question WWTD? "What Would Thurman Do?"

[djp14150]

Dadonkadonk, on 03 March 2013 - 02:01 AM, said:

Its age not number of carries...30+ year old running backs simply decline in productivity at an exponential rate.  Tomlinson and Alexander are the most recent glaring examples of guys who declined at a ridiculous rate.  If Nix had any balls he would have forced FJ to play out his last year of his contract and then thanked him for his contribution to the team which was next to nothing this year.  This franchise has drafted two running backs in the first round, signed a 30+ year old to an extension, and drafted one 7th round QB in the last 5 years.  Is there no wonder this team is irrelevant???

It is NOT age---it is carries + injuries. You take a young RB and run him 300+ times from 21-25 he will be the same as a 30+ yr old back.  Its even more so taking into account what kind of hits they get based on their running style.  so a power back this will be harder.

[djp14150]

Lt played 8 years of 300+ carrier.  He started at 22-29 yrs old. Then he fell off.

Alexander///also did 300+ carries from 2000-2005.  He turned 29 at the start of the 2006 yr and his production fell.  injuries was a big factor here.

With FJ He had his best avg in 2011 before his injury killed the season in week 11.  He was 30 in that season.  Last year he had more injuries, plus recovering from his 2011 injury tends to take longer than a yr to get back to 100% old form.

[Meathead]

this season freddie will hit the wall harder than amanda bynes hits cop cars AND harder than lindsey lohan hits the bottle before doing four minutes of community service a month AND harder than winona ryder hits up the macys perfume shoplifting counter

now thats hard

[machine gun kelly]

Breaking news.  A RB over 30 gets cut.  Stop the papers and call the cops.

[RuntheDamnBall]

Wait, it WAS on like a MOFO then?

[NoSaint]

Dibs, on 03 March 2013 - 01:02 AM, said:

18.8.....but I won't quibble over that.

The league has changed in recent years regarding number of carries......therefore there is a misconception amongst most fans as to what constitutes a lot of carries & what doesn't.
People tout 25+ carries/game as a reasonable workhorse number.  That equates to 400 carries a year.....the last time this occurred was 7 years ago in 2006.....and since then only 5 RBs have rushed over 350 in a season....one being MT.

Here are the number of RBs to get 300+ carries a season since MT started at the Falcons.....(his rank is in brackets if he rushed over 300 that season).

2008: 5(1)
2009: 6.....injury year
2010: 7(1)
2011: 2(2)
2012: 5


The average is only 5 RBs per year......and 3 of the last 5 were led by MT.

I understand, and I'm normally the first to trot out the stats for how devastating 380 carries is for a back..... But 300 hardly has the backing or effect that getting close to 400 does.

Ladanian had 300 touches 8 straight years, as did eddie George, Shaun Alexander 5 straight (with 750 touches) in his final two productive, Curtis Martin had 10 straight years of 300 touches. Guys just a decade ago lived off 300 carries. Corey dillon was always right around there. You really see guys fall apart in that 370-380+ range (Alexander, Davis, Anderson, Johnson.... Turner a few years ago).

Really, your chart shows that he's of a dying breed of feature backs in a league that also is moving towards the passing game. That not many backs have hit 300 the last couple years doesn't equate to backs breaking down at 300. If anything, my gut tells me his age was the bigger issue and they were wise to get all they could while they could.


An old link but a good one on the topic that I often share when people demand 25-30 carries a game
http://www.footballd...ck_carries.html

Edited by NoSaint, 03 March 2013 - 09:10 AM.

[Triple Threat]

RuntheDamnBall, on 03 March 2013 - 08:56 AM, said:

Wait, it WAS on like a MOFO then?

Since I love it when guys do this, I'm going to in a different vain.

What would it hurt to bring him in?

[NoSaint]

Triple Threat, on 03 March 2013 - 09:26 AM, said:

Since I love it when guys do this, I'm going to in a different vain.

What would it hurt to bring him in?

Leave no stone unturned

[auburnbillsbacker]

mitchmurraydowntown, on 03 March 2013 - 01:04 AM, said:

My car needs tires every 30K miles,  I'm now a soothsayer.

I would recommend spending a few dollars more.  Tires can often last over 50,000 miles.  

[Dibs]

NoSaint, on 03 March 2013 - 09:02 AM, said:

I understand, and I'm normally the first to trot out the stats for how devastating 380 carries is for a back..... But 300 hardly has the backing or effect that getting close to 400 does.

Ladanian had 300 touches 8 straight years, as did eddie George, Shaun Alexander 5 straight (with 750 touches) in his final two productive, Curtis Martin had 10 straight years of 300 touches. Guys just a decade ago lived off 300 carries. Corey dillon was always right around there. You really see guys fall apart in that 370-380+ range (Alexander, Davis, Anderson, Johnson.... Turner a few years ago).

Really, your chart shows that he's of a dying breed of feature backs in a league that also is moving towards the passing game. That not many backs have hit 300 the last couple years doesn't equate to backs breaking down at 300. If anything, my gut tells me his age was the bigger issue and they were wise to get all they could while they could.


An old link but a good one on the topic that I often share when people demand 25-30 carries a game
http://www.footballd...ck_carries.html

Agreed.
I grabbed the wrong end of the stick with this one.

Seems that 30(+/-) still hasn't changed as the standard "RB hitting the wall age".

Edited by Dibs, 03 March 2013 - 11:26 AM.

[Rob's House]

My take on the age v wear debate is that it's a combination of the two. Regardless of wear you're going to start to drop off around 30. Guys who have taken a beating probably drop off a little sooner (Marion Barber III) and those who haven't often have a couple of extra years (FJ, Thomas Jones).

That's why I think FJ may have another good season left in him, but know that regardless of wear that the ride is nearing the end. That's why it might be a good move to take Lattimore if he's around in the 4th - Sort of like the move with Mcgahee, only with a 4th instead of a 1st.

[mitchmurraydowntown]

auburnbillsbacker, on 03 March 2013 - 09:42 AM, said:

I would recommend spending a few dollars more.  Tires can often last over 50,000 miles.  

LOL, yeah maybe.

[DDD]

Meathead, on 03 March 2013 - 01:57 AM, said:

i guess its off like a mofo

Damn, beat me to the punchline!