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[closed]With all the QB's being equally bad in this draft...


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#1 Kellyto83TD

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 04:42 PM

We will go some other position at #8 or trade down, then trade back up for Nassib. With all things being equal the kid has upside and knows the offense we will be installing.

Better to go with the devil you know than the one you don't.

#2 Maddog69

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 05:13 PM

I don't like the idea of taking something else at 8 and then trying to trade back up for Nassib (or any other QB)
1.) You risk missing out on the QB you want
2.) You have to give up extra picks that could be used to fill other holes in the roster

I like the idea of trading down a little bit if possible and still getting the QB they want along with an extra pick or two.   But it is still a risk.   This draft is going to be interesting (and nerve wracking)

#3 NewEra

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 05:22 PM

I'm all for trading down, unless geno smith or Jarvis jones are on the board.  I'd love to add either of those guys. Barkley, milliner and Jordan are the other guys I wouldn't mind drafting if we don't trade down.  

If nassib is the guy, I think we're gonna be, at best, like the bengals.  Have a chance to make the playoffs each year, but never a threat to win it all.  If we pick him, I'll be excited to root for him, but I just don't think he's going to be a great QB. Might be pretty good.  Might suck.  Never great.  Jmo

#4 mjt328

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 05:38 PM

All of the quarterbacks are not equally bad.

Geno Smith would be a Top 10 pick in most years.

> Last year he would have gone after RGIII, but likely before Tannehill
> In 2011, he would have probably gone after Cam Newton, but before Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert or Christian Ponder
> In 2010, he would have gone after Sam Bradford, but before Tim Tebow or Jimmy Clausen
> In 2009, he would have gone after Stafford and probably would have pushed Sanchez for the next QB off the board.
> In 2008, he probably would be taken after Matt Ryan, but before Joe Flacco.

Unless we completely bottom out (less than 3 wins) or trade up one of these years, drafting a quarterback rated as high as Geno Smith is the best we can EVER hope for.

#5 Triple Threat

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 05:45 PM

View PostNewEra, on 07 March 2013 - 05:22 PM, said:

I'm all for trading down, unless geno smith or Jarvis jones are on the board.  I

No,  the poster said all QB's are equally bad.

#6 swnybillsfan

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 06:46 PM

View PostTriple Threat, on 07 March 2013 - 05:45 PM, said:

No,  the poster said all QB's are equally bad.
could we spin this to say they are all equally good?

#7 Section242

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 07:07 PM

View Postmjt328, on 07 March 2013 - 05:38 PM, said:

All of the quarterbacks are not equally bad.

Geno Smith would be a Top 10 pick in most years.

> Last year he would have gone after RGIII, but likely before Tannehill
> In 2011, he would have probably gone after Cam Newton, but before Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert or Christian Ponder
> In 2010, he would have gone after Sam Bradford, but before Tim Tebow or Jimmy Clausen
> In 2009, he would have gone after Stafford and probably would have pushed Sanchez for the next QB off the board.
> In 2008, he probably would be taken after Matt Ryan, but before Joe Flacco.

Unless we completely bottom out (less than 3 wins) or trade up one of these years, drafting a quarterback rated as high as Geno Smith is the best we can EVER hope for.

Barkley probably would've gone before Tannehill last year also.

#8 Bangarang

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 07:20 PM

View Postswnybillsfan, on 07 March 2013 - 06:46 PM, said:


could we spin this to say they are all equally good?

No. They are all equally bad. The OP has spoken.

#9 Captain Hindsight

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 07:22 PM

It takes two to trade. In a class where the 5th guy is as good as the 25th guy why would a team trade up and give up picks. The only team that might is SF becuase they have 15 picks

#10 San Jose Bills Fan

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 07:58 PM

View PostCaptain Hindsight, on 07 March 2013 - 07:22 PM, said:

It takes two to trade. In a class where the 5th guy is as good as the 25th guy why would a team trade up and give up picks. The only team that might is SF becuase they have 15 picks

There's a chance that a team covets any number of players/positions at #8.

Quality left tackles for instance are a scare commodity in the NFL. There are three outstanding OT prospects this year, all considered top 10 picks.

Arguably you can never have enough outstanding cornerbacks.

Some teams are desperate for pass rush help because pass rushers are hard to find.

I think it's very plausible that the Bills could find a trade partner, provided they actually try.

#11 OldTimer1960

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 08:53 PM

View Postmjt328, on 07 March 2013 - 05:38 PM, said:

All of the quarterbacks are not equally bad.

Geno Smith would be a Top 10 pick in most years.

> Last year he would have gone after RGIII, but likely before Tannehill
> In 2011, he would have probably gone after Cam Newton, but before Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert or Christian Ponder
> In 2010, he would have gone after Sam Bradford, but before Tim Tebow or Jimmy Clausen
> In 2009, he would have gone after Stafford and probably would have pushed Sanchez for the next QB off the board.
> In 2008, he probably would be taken after Matt Ryan, but before Joe Flacco.

Unless we completely bottom out (less than 3 wins) or trade up one of these years, drafting a quarterback rated as high as Geno Smith is the best we can EVER hope for.

This is NOT a compelling argument to draft Smith.  To argue that Smith would have been drafted ahead of Locker, Gabbert, Ponder, Tebow, Clausen and Sanchez is ZERO reason to take Smith with the 8th pick in this draft.  Would ANY of those players make the Bills a playoff contender?  I don't think it is a stretch to say no.  

Now, if you want to argue that Geno Smith will, almost by himself, make this team a playoff contender, then there is a case to be made to pick Geno Smith with the 8th pick.

#12 Dibs

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 09:00 PM

View PostOldTimer1960, on 07 March 2013 - 08:53 PM, said:

This is NOT a compelling argument to draft Smith.  To argue that Smith would have been drafted ahead of Locker, Gabbert, Ponder, Tebow, Clausen and Sanchez is ZERO reason to take Smith with the 8th pick in this draft.  Would ANY of those players make the Bills a playoff contender?  I don't think it is a stretch to say no.  

Now, if you want to argue that Geno Smith will, almost by himself, make this team a playoff contender, then there is a case to be made to pick Geno Smith with the 8th pick.

You are using hindsight logic with this.
The argument that mjt328 put forward was that Geno is a legitimate prospect for the #8 selection.

The fact that outside of the top 4 picks, only about 1 in 6 1st rounders become solid starters(1 in 12 becoming Elite) is irrelevant to the concept that Geno is a legitimately good prospect.

#13 OldTimer1960

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 09:14 PM

View PostDibs, on 07 March 2013 - 09:00 PM, said:

You are using hindsight logic with this.
The argument that mjt328 put forward was that Geno is a legitimate prospect for the #8 selection.

The fact that outside of the top 4 picks, only about 1 in 6 1st rounders become solid starters(1 in 12 becoming Elite) is irrelevant to the concept that Geno is a legitimately good prospect.

Huh?  Locker and Ponder are open to debate still, but I think it is pretty clear that Tebow, Clausen and Sanchez were not worth the early picks spent on them.  I don't see how these mistakes suggest that it is a good idea to draft Geno Smith early.  Just because some folks pay over market value for some assets, does not mean that it is a good investment.

Edited by OldTimer1960, 07 March 2013 - 09:29 PM.


#14 Dibs

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 09:28 PM

View PostOldTimer1960, on 07 March 2013 - 09:14 PM, said:

Huh?  Locker and Ponder are open to debate still, but I think it is pretty clear that Tebow, Clausen and Sanchez were not worth the early picks spent on them.  I don't see how these mistakes suggest that it is a good idea to draft Geno Smith early.  Just because my some folks pay over market value for some assets, does not mean that it is a good investment.

Only in hindsight can one say that they were not worth it.
At the time of drafting, players such as Rodgers, Big Ben & Flacco were all considered to be of rough equivalent potential(non Top 4 1st rounders) as Tannehill, Freeman, Leinart etc, etc, etc.

If you believe that you can tell which ones will become elite and which ones will bust prior to drafting, you should be applying for a scouting job as you can clearly do something that no NFL scout can do.

Edited by Dibs, 07 March 2013 - 09:28 PM.


#15 Hopeful

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 09:56 PM

View PostKellyto83TD, on 07 March 2013 - 04:42 PM, said:

We will go some other position at #8 or trade down, then trade back up for Nassib. With all things being equal the kid has upside and knows the offense we will be installing.

Better to go with the devil you know than the one you don't.

Why do you think all the QB are equally bad in this draft?

#16 OldTimer1960

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Posted 08 March 2013 - 04:58 AM

View PostDibs, on 07 March 2013 - 09:28 PM, said:

Only in hindsight can one say that they were not worth it.
At the time of drafting, players such as Rodgers, Big Ben & Flacco were all considered to be of rough equivalent potential(non Top 4 1st rounders) as Tannehill, Freeman, Leinart etc, etc, etc.

If you believe that you can tell which ones will become elite and which ones will bust prior to drafting, you should be applying for a scouting job as you can clearly do something that no NFL scout can do.

I believe that there traits that are more important than others, yet are more difficult to judge than others.  I do not claim to be a pro scout, I often even say so in my posts.

I think that the question I have with Smith is why wasn't he able to elevate his team more this year?  He (based on what I am reading and saw in, admittedly limited, viewing) didn't show great leadership and ability to "right the ship" when things started going badly for his team.  

FWIW, I like that Smith is smart, well spoken and a hard worker by all accounts I've seen.  I just hear too many questions to think that he is a better selection than one of the higher rated players at other positions that will be available to the Bills at the 8th pick.

#17 Buffalo Barbarian

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Posted 08 March 2013 - 05:32 AM

View PostKellyto83TD, on 07 March 2013 - 04:42 PM, said:

We will go some other position at #8 or trade down, then trade back up for Nassib. With all things being equal the kid has upside and knows the offense we will be installing.

Better to go with the devil you know than the one you don't.

and next year we draft Johny Football, I'm in  :thumbsup:

View PostSection242, on 07 March 2013 - 07:07 PM, said:

Barkley probably would've gone before Tannehill last year also.

that would have been sweet, then we would have gotten Tannehill  :thumbsup: :thumbsup:

#18 mjt328

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Posted 08 March 2013 - 08:00 AM

View PostOldTimer1960, on 07 March 2013 - 08:53 PM, said:

This is NOT a compelling argument to draft Smith.  To argue that Smith would have been drafted ahead of Locker, Gabbert, Ponder, Tebow, Clausen and Sanchez is ZERO reason to take Smith with the 8th pick in this draft.  Would ANY of those players make the Bills a playoff contender?  I don't think it is a stretch to say no.  

Now, if you want to argue that Geno Smith will, almost by himself, make this team a playoff contender, then there is a case to be made to pick Geno Smith with the 8th pick.

Actually, I think it's a pretty good argument.

The main reason people are saying NOT to draft Smith, is because they claim he is a "poor prospect" compared to other draft classes.  They keep saying "wait until next year and we can draft somebody better."

But that's a load of bull.  As a quarterback prospect, we aren't going to have a better player fall into our laps, UNLESS we bottom out and end up with the #1 pick during the right season (like the Colts last year) or trade our whole franchise to move up (like the Skins last year).

In my opinion, this is the PERFECT year to draft a quarterback high - because we really aren't missing out on any elite prospects at other positions by doing so.
Patterson isn't in the same ballpark as AJ Green, Julio Jones or even Justin Blackmon.  If we pass on him, we can probably still get a player like Justin Hunter, De'Andre Hopkins, Da'Rick Rogers or Robert Woods in the second.

Your argument about Geno Smith "making the team a contender almost by himself" is laughable.  Do you feel like Patterson, Lane Johnson, Warmack or one of the other prospects getting thrown around here - would be able to make the team contenders by themselves?  Obviously not.
There are only a few players in the league like that (Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees) and they are ALL quarterbacks.

#19 JinWPB

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Posted 08 March 2013 - 08:15 AM



#20 Cash

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Posted 08 March 2013 - 09:41 AM

View Postmjt328, on 08 March 2013 - 08:00 AM, said:

Actually, I think it's a pretty good argument.

The main reason people are saying NOT to draft Smith, is because they claim he is a "poor prospect" compared to other draft classes.  They keep saying "wait until next year and we can draft somebody better."

But that's a load of bull.  As a quarterback prospect, we aren't going to have a better player fall into our laps, UNLESS we bottom out and end up with the #1 pick during the right season (like the Colts last year) or trade our whole franchise to move up (like the Skins last year).

In my opinion, this is the PERFECT year to draft a quarterback high - because we really aren't missing out on any elite prospects at other positions by doing so.
Patterson isn't in the same ballpark as AJ Green, Julio Jones or even Justin Blackmon.  If we pass on him, we can probably still get a player like Justin Hunter, De'Andre Hopkins, Da'Rick Rogers or Robert Woods in the second.

Your argument about Geno Smith "making the team a contender almost by himself" is laughable.  Do you feel like Patterson, Lane Johnson, Warmack or one of the other prospects getting thrown around here - would be able to make the team contenders by themselves?  Obviously not.
There are only a few players in the league like that (Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees) and they are ALL quarterbacks.

Some very good discussion in this thread.  I agree with several that Geno is a legitimate first-round prospect, and I'd be very comfortable drafting him at #8.  If he's not there at #8, I'd prefer the Bills go in a different direction (possibly trading down), and take a flier on a QB in the 2nd or 3rd round.  To me, it's a pretty underwhelming QB class, but the odds are pretty good that at least one of the Wilson/Bray/Nassib/Manuel/etc. group becomes at least a decent starter.  I have zero clue about which one(s), though.  EDIT:  Except that I think Glennon will be an absolute bust.  Any time the argument for a QB prospect comes down to something like, "don't look at his numbers, just look at his arm" I'm extremely skeptical.

Edited by Cash, 08 March 2013 - 09:45 AM.