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My view of drafting and this draft


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#1 Cheddar's Dad

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Posted 17 March 2013 - 10:00 AM

I've heard many mock drafters and football writers talk about players with upside, those that have high ceilings. Players are frequently selected on this criteria. I think this is a bad approach to drafting. A player, said to have a high ceiling, hasn't done it yet. His potential hasn't been shown. He doesn't show excellent, consistant play, game after game.

The better approach, in my opinion, is to look for those players with high floors; those players that have shown what your looking for, game after game, for at least two or more years and never or rarely have a bad game.

I also think that games are won in the trenches. You draft linemen first until your lines are set.

Based on these rules of drafting, this is how I think the Bills should approach this draft.

With the 8th pick, do not select Geno Smith. He's much too inconsistant. Cordarella Patterson, he drops too many balls. Ezekiel Ansah, he looked bad in Senior Bowl practices although he was good in the game when o-line blocking responsibilities can get confused after only three days of practice. Ryan Nassib; inconsistant with the long ball. Same goes for Matt Barkley.

Who would I select? It wouldn't be any of the top 6 QBs. We can live with Tavaris Jackson until next year which should be a much better year for QBs.

I would select from among this group: Joeckel, Fisher, Jarvis Jones is he clears med checks, Star Lotulelei, if he clears med checks. Buffalo needs a right DE. Chance Warmack and Johnathon Cooper, two guards that will start emmediately. I know, some are against selecting guards in the first round thinking "you can always get a guard". Really? Is that why Tennessee is paying Levitre 46 Mil for six years and why Minni gave Hutchinson a poison pill contract to get him from Seattle?
How good would Warmack look facing Vince Wilfork twice a year?  

As for receivers, look for those that Mayock says "catch everything". Size and speed mean nothing if a receiver cannot be expected to make that clutch grab. Ryan Swope in the 2nd. would be a good selection in my opinion.

#2 Hazed and Amuzed

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Posted 17 March 2013 - 10:29 AM

I tend to agree with your philosophy, however I think we are strongest at the trenches, even with losing Levitre. I like carrington Williams, Williams and Dareus on the Dline and with exception to LG I'm okay with the oline. I like the Jarvis pick if he clears medically. This team has a void at the skill positions. That being said, I think Patterson is a mistake at 8. I think the most logical move is QB.

#3 Bangarang

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Posted 17 March 2013 - 10:34 AM

I disagree with literally everything here.

#4 swnybillsfan

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Posted 17 March 2013 - 10:41 AM

the problem i have with waiting until next year to grab a qb is that you have absolutely no idea what will happen between now and then. if you are expecting this team to improve this year then we will have a worse pick than this year in the first round, and it would seem logical that with a pick somewhere around 13-16, there will be no way we get even a sniff of one of next year's "elite" qb prospects. and on the other hand, if you want this team to bottom out and get a top 3 pick, then we will be that much closer to looking for a new coach. i think we need to come away with a legitimate rookie qb prospect this year and give it hell, nothing says we can't draft another one next year if things don't work out. but i feel we at least have to try.

#5 Hopeful

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Posted 17 March 2013 - 11:11 AM

View Postswnybillsfan, on 17 March 2013 - 10:41 AM, said:

the problem i have with waiting until next year to grab a qb is that you have absolutely no idea what will happen between now and then. (...)  i think we need to come away with a legitimate rookie qb prospect this year and give it hell, nothing says we can't draft another one next year if things don't work out. but i feel we at least have to try.

This.  If the Bills had paid a decent amount of attention to drafting a QB in the last 2 years, we could well have a promising prospect in the pipeline, ready to try.  It was ranking the QBs they liked, lower on their board than the "market impact" requires them to be, that put them in this spot (IMO).  Well, that plus chasing and overpaying for crap FA (Thigpen, VY) instead of doing what they said they would do and focus on building throught the draft.

#6 Cheddar's Dad

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Posted 17 March 2013 - 11:18 AM

I'm not expecting this team to improve this year and neither should you. The Bills just lost a fine LG and a good backup guard, and the kind of o-line coordination you get with a veteran group that has played together. After going from a 34 D to a 43 and signing a 100 mil DE to play in that 43, we're now going back to a 34/43 hybrid without LBS to play the 34 and with a multi- millionaire DE that doesn't like to play LB. We have only one receiver, and if we drafted a QB, do you expect him to start and give us a better record that 6 and 10?. You really expect us to improve this year?????

If we draft one of the turkey QBs this year, next year or the year after, you and everyone else will be screaming for Johnny Manziel or Teddy Bridgewater. Buffalo should not be satisfied with a QB that will likely be no better than the one we just jetissoned. We need a QB that can play with the Bradys and Mannings. Lets fill our holes this year and next year pull a Ditka for that great QB.

#7 thebandit27

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Posted 17 March 2013 - 11:18 AM

I agree with the premise here...I'd go after the imapct defender at 8, as I think it's the greatest value.

One of Jordan, Jones, or Mingo should be there for the taking, and can have an immediate impact on this defense.

Get your QB in round 2 and WR in round 3.

#8 swnybillsfan

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Posted 17 March 2013 - 11:36 AM

View PostCheddar, on 17 March 2013 - 11:18 AM, said:

I'm not expecting this team to improve this year and neither should you. The Bills just lost a fine LG and a good backup guard, and the kind of o-line coordination you get with a veteran group that has played together. After going from a 34 D to a 43 and signing a 100 mil DE to play in that 43, we're now going back to a 34/43 hybrid without LBS to play the 34 and with a multi- millionaire DE that doesn't like to play LB. We have only one receiver, and if we drafted a QB, do you expect him to start and give us a better record that 6 and 10?. You really expect us to improve this year?????

If we draft one of the turkey QBs this year, next year or the year after, you and everyone else will be screaming for Johnny Manziel or Teddy Bridgewater. Buffalo should not be satisfied with a QB that will likely be no better than the one we just jetissoned. We need a QB that can play with the Bradys and Mannings. Lets fill our holes this year and next year pull a Ditka for that great QB.
    i absolutely expect to see improvement this year. my two biggest concerns last year were coaching and defense. this team is not without talent, yes we have holes. lots of them. but we also have some good peice and a couple that could be great.
and as far as drafting one of this year's "turkeys", yes, i absolutely want to do so. it doesn't need to be in the first, or even the second. i just want this team to take a legitimate shot at a quarterback they think they can work with.
also, if we pick a rookie and the kid comes in and has statistically the same season that fitz has averaged the past couple years (3,000 yards, 20+ td's and 15 or so int's) but shows signs of being able to play beyond fitz's physical limitations, i'll be very happy with that. because that shows you now have a qb you can move forward with. (and if we draft a kid that can play with the stones that fitz played with, consider that a win as well.)

#9 Section242

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Posted 17 March 2013 - 11:59 AM

View PostCheddar, on 17 March 2013 - 11:18 AM, said:

I'm not expecting this team to improve this year and neither should you. The Bills just lost a fine LG and a good backup guard, and the kind of o-line coordination you get with a veteran group that has played together. After going from a 34 D to a 43 and signing a 100 mil DE to play in that 43, we're now going back to a 34/43 hybrid without LBS to play the 34 and with a multi- millionaire DE that doesn't like to play LB. We have only one receiver, and if we drafted a QB, do you expect him to start and give us a better record that 6 and 10?. You really expect us to improve this year?????

If we draft one of the turkey QBs this year, next year or the year after, you and everyone else will be screaming for Johnny Manziel or Teddy Bridgewater. Buffalo should not be satisfied with a QB that will likely be no better than the one we just jetissoned. We need a QB that can play with the Bradys and Mannings. Lets fill our holes this year and next year pull a Ditka for that great QB.

Whose to say Jake Matthews isn't a better tackle than Fisher or Johnson?  Or that Lee is better than Patterson?  Clowney is better than any defensive player in this years draft so they should wait on him too.  I don't think a team has invested less in terms of draft picks than the Bills since Nix arrived.  If the Bills QB draft a QB and he's terrible then obviously people will want to improve the position.

As for drafting players who have the ability to be less bad than others.  I couldn't think of a worse philosophy.

#10 Cheddar's Dad

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Posted 17 March 2013 - 01:34 PM

View PostSection242, on 17 March 2013 - 11:59 AM, said:

As for drafting players who have the ability to be less bad than others.  I couldn't think of a worse philosophy.

Isn't the player that is the "less bad" player than any other player in the draft really the best player?????

#11 OldTimer1960

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Posted 17 March 2013 - 02:07 PM

This QB debate (for me) boils down to:
IF the Bills think that there is a QB who has a good chance (not a long-shot) to be a good starting QB, then I think they should take him at #8.  However, if they don't think there is anyone that is likely to be a good starter (QB) in the NFL, then it would be foolish to spend the first or even 2nd round pick on a player like that.  Those high picks are too valuable to just "take a flyer" on a QB.  

Like everyone here, I would love for the Bills to find a very good young QB who could be a good starter for many years.  I just don't know if there is anyone in this draft that is that guy.

Geno Smith: Has a good arm, is reportedly intelligent and a hard worker - however, there are questions about his leadership skills/ability to pull his team out of a slump or bring them from behind as evidenced by West Virginia's disappointing fall after a hot start.  Some also question his accuracy, in spite of his gaudy 71 completion percentage.  He was throwing to two very very talented WRs - he had a better WR group at WVU than he would have with the Bills.

Matt Barkley: I don't care about the history of USC QBs - that is no reason to pass on Barkely (IMHO).  The same was said about Cal QBs, but Aaron Rodgers is pretty good.  However, there are questions about his arm strength that are a bit of a concern.  He is reportedly a very good leader and can make quick decisions and make accurate throws.  Yet, there is something about him that seems a bit "golden-boyish" to me.  I don't know how to quantify it and I may be completely off base with that, too.

Tyler Wilson: I like what I have read about him, especially the leadership and toughness.  However, I don't know if his arm is strong enough to be more than a nice backup/maybe game-manager starter.  

Ryan Nassib: I read that he is a hard worker and is built strong.  I think his arm is pretty strong, not great.  I don't think I've seen where he is a super leader, but he did lift a Syracuse program out of the dumper, so credit to him for contributing to that.  That he would have a leg-up in learning Hackett's offense over other QBs is completely irrelevant to me.  You are drafting a QB for the long-term, so a few months less or more to learn the offense means nothing.  Many reports that I have seen don't rate him as a likely long-term starter, but at least 1 former NFL scout thinks he is the best player in the draft.

EJ Manuel: I like his size, arm strength and intelligence, but he never really "lit it up" in college.  He deserves some credit for his team winning multiple bowl games, but he didn't always play particularly well in those big games.

Tyler Bray: I wouldn't want any part of this guy before the 4th round.  I don't care how strong his arm is, he is reportedly immature and not a leader.  He couldn't get Tennessee to play well even though (like Smith), he had two outstanding WRs to throw to.  Above, I argued that Geno Smith's high completion percentage may not tell the whole story.  With Bray, I think his 58% completion rate is strikingly bad considering who he had to pass to.

Of the above, I think that Wilson, Nassib and Manuel show enough to take a shot at in the 2nd.  I don't think I like Smith or Barkley enough to spend the 1st pick on, unless the Bills' scouts really don't have any reservations.  The worst thing that they could do is talk themselves into overlooking too many shortcomings because they are so desperate for a QB.

#12 Meathead

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Posted 17 March 2013 - 02:28 PM

if smith or barkley are there at eight and the bills dont trade down, i guarantee they will take one of them. if not i will stand naked on the corner of big tree and southwestern with a lit bottle rocket stuck up my butt singing that gay miami dolphins song

#13 Green Lightning

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Posted 17 March 2013 - 02:35 PM

Draft a damn quarterback and let's move on. If he doesn't work out draft another one next year.

#14 chris heff

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Posted 17 March 2013 - 04:01 PM

View PostGreen Lightning, on 17 March 2013 - 02:35 PM, said:

Draft a damn quarterback and let's move on. If he doesn't work out draft another one next year.
+1

#15 Green Lightning

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Posted 17 March 2013 - 04:17 PM

View PostMeathead, on 17 March 2013 - 02:28 PM, said:

if smith or barkley are there at eight and the bills dont trade down, i guarantee they will take one of them. if not i will stand naked on the corner of big tree and southwestern with a lit bottle rocket stuck up my butt singing that gay miami dolphins song

Well you would want to call that crazy, but in Miami the call that Tuesday.

#16 Cheddar's Dad

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Posted 17 March 2013 - 04:29 PM

View PostGreen Lightning, on 17 March 2013 - 02:35 PM, said:

Draft a damn quarterback and let's move on. If he doesn't work out draft another one next year.

-1

#17 Aus Bills

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Posted 17 March 2013 - 05:27 PM

If Barkley isn't Taken by 8 best option is to trade down and get him later in the first. No teams below us in the first are drafting a QB. Hopefully gain an extra 2nd or 3rd .

#18 swnybillsfan

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Posted 17 March 2013 - 05:52 PM

View PostAus Bills, on 17 March 2013 - 05:27 PM, said:

If Barkley isn't Taken by 8 best option is to trade down and get him later in the first. No teams below us in the first are drafting a QB. Hopefully gain an extra 2nd or 3rd .
if that's the guy you like just take him. there is no need to get cute with this and dare someone to jump up and grab the guy you like. if you truly like one guy better than the others, take him. if you are not sure which one of 5 or six you want, then by all means, play around and get whatever you can. but if you know what you want at that position (and the bills damn well better know what they want!), and he is there when you pick, it's best to leave nothing to chance.

#19 Hopeful

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Posted 17 March 2013 - 11:17 PM

View PostGreen Lightning, on 17 March 2013 - 04:17 PM, said:

Well you would want to call that crazy, but in Miami the call that Tuesday.

Well played!

I would advise against the bottle rocket offer, Head of Meat - it sounds potentially quite painful, even if the lit end is left out.  And while your scenerio seems the most probable, this IS the Bills we're talking about and so, you just never know.

#20 CarolinaBill

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Posted 17 March 2013 - 11:32 PM

"there are questions about his leadership skills/ability to pull his team out of a slump or bring them from behind as evidenced by West Virginia's disappointing fall after a hot start."

If you can point to any QB in recent memory that had a defense that surrendered as many points as WVU's, and put them in the holes they were in, and led that team back in every game, I will send you a $100 check, promise.
WVU surrendered over 38pts/game, usually in bunchs.  No qb in the country could've pulled off 10 wins with that D.  Add to that in a few games, like Oklahoma or TCU, the defense gave up the deciding score.