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The Bills' current starting QB - the numbers


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#1 dave mcbride

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Posted 18 March 2013 - 10:09 AM

Since he is our de facto starting QB now, I thought it worthwhile to do a little digging.

http://www.pro-footb.../J/JackTa00.htm

As you can see, he's a below average player. His TD/INT ratio is nearly 1-1, and his lifetime rating is 77.7. His advanced QB rating is 91, which is weak (100 is average). What really sticks out is his sack ratio - 7.8 percent. That's quite poor.

Here is his scouting report from when he came out of college: http://www.cbssports...torical/1107218

A couple of things to note:

1) He's from Montgomery, AL, which is 142.71 miles from where Nix was born: Carbon Hill, AL (incidentally, Nix went to Talladega High School).

2) He started out at the U of Arkansas (SEC!!) but left after a year, returning to his hometown of Montgomery.

3) His completion rate in college was 54.5 percent.

4) He apparently has a very strong arm.

5) He took a lot of sacks in college, a trend which has certainly continued in the pros.

6) He was a second round pick, but barely. He was the last pick of the second round (64th overall).

Edited by dave mcbride, 18 March 2013 - 10:10 AM.


#2 Kelly the Dog

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Posted 18 March 2013 - 10:20 AM

All that and his 1.75m contract screams #3 QB to me. I would not at all be surprised if we brought in another guy to compete with him for the starter and/or back-up job in addition to the top 1-2 round rookie. He may well start the season as the #1. I doubt he lasts past the bye week, whenever that is.

#3 Captain Hindsight

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Posted 18 March 2013 - 10:26 AM

I read here he is far and away better than Fitz so I fully expect playoffs

#4 Best Player Available

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Posted 18 March 2013 - 10:30 AM

View PostKelly the Dog, on 18 March 2013 - 10:20 AM, said:

All that and his 1.75m contract screams #3 QB to me. I would not at all be surprised if we brought in another guy to compete with him for the starter and/or back-up job in addition to the top 1-2 round rookie. He may well start the season as the #1. I doubt he lasts past the bye week, whenever that is.
I guess signing Jason Campbell is out. I remember watching him every game before he went down the last season he played for the Raiders. He was serviceable. As good as anyone on the bills roster the past 3 years. Really, anyone the Bills pick in the draft or free agents, are just going to watch the crypt until the team gets a scouting dept. worth their salt. I hope I'm wrong on the draft but everyone in B-Lo is unproven in the NFL except the DC.

#5 NoSaint

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Posted 18 March 2013 - 10:31 AM

View PostKelly the Dog, on 18 March 2013 - 10:20 AM, said:

All that and his 1.75m contract screams #3 QB to me. I would not at all be surprised if we brought in another guy to compete with him for the starter and/or back-up job in addition to the top 1-2 round rookie. He may well start the season as the #1. I doubt he lasts past the bye week, whenever that is.

If taken at face value "fitz will possibly be competing for the backup spot" (not verbatim, but not looking up the taped call right now) implies to me that someone else is in the short term ideal plan that would push fitz to #3 potentially

#6 Why So Serious?

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Posted 18 March 2013 - 10:36 AM

All of this is key evidence of a lack of planning by OBD.
Why would a FA WR want to sign with a team that practically has zero NFL quality QBs on the roster?
Look at the Stat lines of the WRs in Minn or Seattle. There wasn't a lot of passing yards to go around.
Follow that to the defensive side of the Ball, with no QB the defense will be on the field a lot which leads to eventual break downs in defense and poor performance. A Defensive FA doesn't want to be a part of that mess; Pettine or no Pettine.
OBD didn't really save much cap room by cutting Fitz but they certainly scared away any perspective FA.

The Bills must sign a QB to compete with the rookie because TJax is not real competition.

#7 hondo in seattle

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Posted 18 March 2013 - 10:59 AM

I live in Seattle and some Seahawks fans tell me that Jackson played credibly well in his one year here given that he was injured (shoulder, ribs).  One used the word "courageous."  They say his stats would have been better if he had been healthy.  Even so, Seattle fans are obviously happy they ended up with Wilson under center rather than TJax.

TJax isn't the answer but he might be a serviceable caretaker until we find a franchise QB.

#8 Mr. WEO

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Posted 18 March 2013 - 11:10 AM

Jackson wasn't even worth losing a 6th for a 7th round pick in this year's draft to even dress for a game last year.

#9 jeremy2020

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Posted 18 March 2013 - 11:28 AM

I assume they're looking at bringing someone in to compete.

#10 MOFO

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Posted 18 March 2013 - 12:17 PM

I am still stunned that he didn't even dress...Thigpen have pics of Chan?

#11 Meathead

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Posted 18 March 2013 - 12:17 PM

yeah, the 'someones' they will bring in to compete will be at least one rookie. tjax isnt seeing the field unless a) the rookie(s) suck so bad in preseason they have no choice, or 3) they get injured

face it, tjax is the only other veteran qb they will likely have in camp. they already could have had fitz at a restructure but wanted to pay him peanuts to do it, which means they see tjax as THE veteran presence. the only way they bring somebody else in is if they can get someone with a higher ceiling like kolb without giving up anything more than a mid-level contract and a very low draft pick

with the move to lowball fitz they are sending a clear signal they are going all in on at least one rookie qb. they either take smith/barkley at eight, or they wait until the second round and take their highest rated qb. whomever it is they are going to give every chance to start and come hell or high water is probably going to do just that

Edited by Meathead, 18 March 2013 - 12:18 PM.


#12 Wagon Circler

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Posted 18 March 2013 - 12:36 PM

"Bring in?" What's that ? Free agents? What are those?
Oh and they saved 7 million in cap room by cutting Fitz  by deferring that money to next year.
They are currently about 22 million under the cap.

#13 Why So Serious?

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Posted 18 March 2013 - 12:42 PM

View PostWagon Circler, on 18 March 2013 - 12:36 PM, said:

"Bring in?" What's that ? Free agents? What are those?
Oh and they saved 7 million in cap room by cutting Fitz  by deferring that money to next year.
They are currently about 22 million under the cap.
They didn't save any money. They deferred it.
If you had a plan you could argue taking the cap hit in a year you have very little chance to be competitive would be a better strategy than putting it off until later.

#14 Kelly the Dog

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Posted 18 March 2013 - 01:11 PM

View PostWhy So Serious?, on 18 March 2013 - 12:42 PM, said:

They didn't save any money. They deferred it.
If you had a plan you could argue taking the cap hit in a year you have very little chance to be competitive would be a better strategy than putting it off until later.
They saved $4.25m in real money this year and several million in real money next year. They saved 3m in cap room this year, and deferred 7m to next year. The Bills never really have a lot of issues with the cap, and they likely won't next year. So it allows them to make moves this year if they want to, and if the opportunity avails itself, but it doesn't prevent them from making moves next year when we should be in decent cap shape.

#15 Best Player Available

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Posted 18 March 2013 - 02:22 PM

View PostWhy So Serious?, on 18 March 2013 - 12:42 PM, said:

They didn't save any money. They deferred it.
If you had a plan you could argue taking the cap hit in a year you have very little chance to be competitive would be a better strategy than putting it off until later.
The move deferring cap pain for one year. So far makes zero sense. Also, with Wood and others due
for new contracts next year it really becomes a head scratcher. They must have a plan, maybe they are just fine
tuning it. They should have eaten Fritz's cap hit this year, but they are the pros at this stuff.

#16 Cheetahz

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Posted 18 March 2013 - 03:15 PM

Stats only tell part of a story.  Now before I continue let me say a couple things so no one thinks I'm some bobo!  First I have been a Jackson fan since he came in the league, I like the guy, I don't think he has been treated fairly by Vikings at all.  Second. I am not saying he is the next hof or even the bills next 5 yr starter, but I believe and know he is better than some or most give.

Yes as someone mentioned he was injured last year, it was a torn pec on his throwing arm, he should have had surgery that is how bad it was, and frankly shouldn't have been able to throw a football.

He has never been in a. Offense where throwing was #1 and running second, he always ran a run first, which would be reflected in the low number of TD passes.  Also every year that he has started double digit games he has improved, u can look through his career and see that, even Seattle he improved.  

He can make plays, he is better than fritz, in fact even if he played at the same lvl fritz did but completed those downfield passes, u would have gone 8-8 last year if not better.  

Draft a rookie or 2 let them compete sit and learn fora year, and the new offense get bills to 8-8 at least.  Feel free to flame away.  I said all that to say, season isn't and won't be lost if Jackson starts whole season. Although some of u would like that anyways.

#17 Bills Fan since '64

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Posted 18 March 2013 - 03:38 PM

Can a JaMarcus Russell signing be far off?

#18 Kelly the Dog

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Posted 18 March 2013 - 03:39 PM

Hasselback being released. Titans may be signing Fitz. I don't think we want Hasselback, but he is probably as good as Tjax, meaning not very.

Edited by Kelly the Dog, 18 March 2013 - 03:40 PM.


#19 Hopeful

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Posted 18 March 2013 - 06:21 PM

View PostCaptain Hindsight, on 18 March 2013 - 10:26 AM, said:

I read here he is far and away better than Fitz so I fully expect playoffs

:worthy:

#20 paupmvp1995

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Posted 18 March 2013 - 07:15 PM

View PostCheetahz, on 18 March 2013 - 03:15 PM, said:

Stats only tell part of a story.  Now before I continue let me say a couple things so no one thinks I'm some bobo!  First I have been a Jackson fan since he came in the league, I like the guy, I don't think he has been treated fairly by Vikings at all.  Second. I am not saying he is the next hof or even the bills next 5 yr starter, but I believe and know he is better than some or most give.

Yes as someone mentioned he was injured last year, it was a torn pec on his throwing arm, he should have had surgery that is how bad it was, and frankly shouldn't have been able to throw a football.

He has never been in a. Offense where throwing was #1 and running second, he always ran a run first, which would be reflected in the low number of TD passes.  Also every year that he has started double digit games he has improved, u can look through his career and see that, even Seattle he improved.  

He can make plays, he is better than fritz, in fact even if he played at the same lvl fritz did but completed those downfield passes, u would have gone 8-8 last year if not better.  

Draft a rookie or 2 let them compete sit and learn fora year, and the new offense get bills to 8-8 at least.  Feel free to flame away.  I said all that to say, season isn't and won't be lost if Jackson starts whole season. Although some of u would like that anyways.
Totally agree.  I have watched several games T Jack has played and he IS BETTER than Fitz.  Nice post.  Good to hear from someone who knows the current NFL.