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Need vs best player available?


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#1 billsfan_34

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Posted 23 March 2013 - 09:27 AM

I have been looking at everyone's posts lately and there is many ways the Bills can approach this. Its no secret the 3 biggest needs are Qb, Lb, and Wr in that order. So what do you do if your the gm? Me , I'm going need for sure. I think best available overall does us squat. I mean do we need another LT or CB. What's your take?

#2 H2o

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Posted 23 March 2013 - 09:29 AM

What if the BPA fills a need, just not the need that every one of the other armchair GM's would select first?

#3 Hazed and Amuzed

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Posted 23 March 2013 - 09:34 AM

I'm a firm believer in BPA unless you have a huge hole at QB, like the Bills do, then I think you make the exception.

#4 NFLBighits

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Posted 23 March 2013 - 09:38 AM

Reminds me when we picked A defensive tackle when A.J green was sitting there and we were so poor against the run that they had to beef up the line but not knocking Marcel but A.J green was the best player available hands down !  You should always go best player available or trade down .

#5 Trader

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Posted 23 March 2013 - 10:21 AM

View Postbillsfan_34, on 23 March 2013 - 09:27 AM, said:

I have been looking at everyone's posts lately and there is many ways the Bills can approach this. Its no secret the 3 biggest needs are Qb, Lb, and Wr in that order. So what do you do if your the gm? Me , I'm going need for sure. I think best available overall does us squat. I mean do we need another LT or CB. What's your take?

BPA all the way.   I would be tempted to draft for need if they were a contender and one or two players away.   They are not a contender and worse than that they have lost ground to thier AFC rivals in the last three years.  The talent level vrs the rest of the league and especially the AFC east needs dramatic improvement and it is going to take a long time (3-5 years) of getting better players than the competition at more positions than the competition has better players than they have.   I know that is not a great sentence but it is the truth.

#6 KOKBILLS

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Posted 23 March 2013 - 10:44 AM

Well...Be careful in this Draft when you consider BPA...Why?

I've heard it said about a million times already concerning this Draft...There is almost no difference grade-wise between the prospect who will be available at # 8 and the prospect who will be available at #28...This is a VERY deep Draft, maybe the deepest Draft (especially at D-Line and O-Line) scouts have seen for many years...But it's also a Draft that is void of elite talent...Once you get past Joeckel, Fisher, Jordan, Floyd, Milliner, and Ansah it REALLY evens out quickly...And the chance that any of those 6 will be available at #8 is slim...or none...Chance Warmack would also fit in that group of elite talent. But he's an OG, and OG's do not get Drafted in the Top 10...If they did David Decastro would have done it last year...

So when you consider BPA at #8, is it really going to be a player that is considerably better than the BPA at #12, or #16? Not from what I've read/heard...Which leads me to believe that the Bills will take whatever QB they have rated highest at #8, unless that QB is gone already...If they are unhappy with the QB's at #8 they'll probably look to trade down...if they can't trade down, and QB is not an option at #8, then I think the pick comes down to Cordarrell Patterson, Lane Johnson, or Barkevious Mingo... B-)

Edited by KOKBILLS, 23 March 2013 - 03:26 PM.


#7 San-O

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Posted 23 March 2013 - 11:11 AM

View PostHazed and Amuzed, on 23 March 2013 - 09:34 AM, said:

I'm a firm believer in BPA unless you have a huge hole at QB, like the Bills do, then I think you make the exception.

I would agree.  And add that if they CAN'T or don't get a QB, trade down and get picks:  even if the value is not great.  The Bills have lots of holes and aren't going anywhere this year regardless.  Stockpile some draft picks please.  IMO.

#8 OldTimer1960

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Posted 23 March 2013 - 11:20 AM

It depends on the disparity in team's grades/evaluations of players available.  If the team "grades" the BPA significantly higher than their highest graded player at a position of need, then it would seem prudent to take BPA.  If the grades are close, then the case can be made for drafting for need.

With regard to the QBs and the Bills' obvious need, it is my opinion that if the team thinks any of the available QBs can be a good long-term starter, then they will take that guy at 8.  If they don't feel very confident in that, then I think that they'll take their highest graded player with other position needs being considered.

I could see a scenario where the Bills take OT Lane Johnson to give them two very good bookend tackles.  They could then have Chris Hairston compete for the open OG spot.  With the two good young tackles, they can focus on a run-based offense with Spiller and Jackson and provide a good pass blocking line so that they can take a shot with one of the remaining QBs in round 2.  Mike Glennon might be very good if you give him a lot of time to pass.  I think Nassib has as good a chance as any of the QBs in this draft of being good and EJ Manuel could look pretty good with a line like that in front of him.

Last year's low sack total allowed by the OL was a bit of a mirrage as the very short passing game masked some pass blocking deficiencies (my opinion).

#9 Leelee Phoenix

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Posted 23 March 2013 - 11:22 AM

Need, first. If you don't have a great QB, you do everything possible to get one. I hope the Bills spend two picks on QBs this draft.

Then, BPA.

#10 Sisyphean Bills

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Posted 23 March 2013 - 11:26 AM

Reaching out of desperation is the right thing to do.  It's exciting like a hail mary pass.  Very low percentage play, good chance that the opposition wins, but the adrenaline rush for just that one moment is the next best thing to winning just before the ball bounces harmlessly off the field...  B-)

#11 Orton's Arm

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Posted 23 March 2013 - 11:53 AM

View PostNFLBighits, on 23 March 2013 - 09:38 AM, said:

Reminds me when we picked A defensive tackle when A.J green was sitting there and we were so poor against the run that they had to beef up the line but not knocking Marcel but A.J green was the best player available hands down !  You should always go best player available or trade down .

You are absolutely correct to imply that the Bills should have taken A.J. Green instead of Dareus. Dareus is a solid player, and Green is something special. Even if Dareus seemed to fill a bigger need at the time, Green would have been much better in the long run.

I'd list several factors teams should take into account when deciding which player to draft:
  • Player grade
  • Whether he's a game changer. Yes, I know this goes hand-in-hand with player grade.
  • The importance of the position he plays; and the opportunities that position will give him to be a difference-maker
  • Need
An offensive guard like Warmack would earn a very high player grade. But he wouldn't earn as high a grade on the game changer dimension, because there aren't as many opportunities for an OG to be a game changer as would be the case for a QB, DE, LT, or WR. Also, even though the Bills currently have a large hole at LG, that hole shouldn't be considered as big a need as, say, QB. The reason I say this is because normally teams can sign or draft reasonably credible OGs, without parting with a lot of money or high draft picks. After taking all the above factors into account, I suspect the Bills might be best off drafting a QB, WR, DL, or even a CB* with the 8th overall pick; rather than using that pick on an OG.

* Note that taking any DB in the first round is justifiable only if the Bills intend to keep him here his whole career, assuming he meets or exceeds expectations. Three times over the last decade, the Bills have let their DBs with the best combination of youth + proven accomplishment go first-contract-and-out. Using first round picks to fill the holes this created is inexcusable, and is one of the main reasons why the Bills have the longest active playoff drought.

#12 K-9

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Posted 23 March 2013 - 12:48 PM

This is a tad revisionist with the usual dose of 20/20 hingsight thrown in. While both players were close in their overall rankings, most NFL teams had Dareus ranked higher than Green on their main boards, just behind Von Miller.

Playmaker is ALWAYS a position of need and BPA is ALWAYS the safest bet. I don't know why anyone would fret over the Bills'choice anyway. They have so many needs that chances are the best player on their board at 8 will be BOTH BPA and satisfy a need.

GO BILLS!!!

#13 Coach Tuesday

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Posted 23 March 2013 - 12:54 PM

Be careful - I think they probably view CB as a need...

#14 H2o

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Posted 23 March 2013 - 01:12 PM

View PostCoach Tuesday, on 23 March 2013 - 12:54 PM, said:

Be careful - I think they probably view CB as a need...
I'd take Milliner in a heartbeat if he was on the board @ #8.

#15 OldTimer1960

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Posted 23 March 2013 - 02:12 PM

View PostH2o, on 23 March 2013 - 01:12 PM, said:

I'd take Milliner in a heartbeat if he was on the board @ #8.

I agree.  Milliner has the production and showed better than expected speed at the combine.  Gilmore and Milliner with McKelvin covering slot receivers would help a lot against the Pats.

#16 KeisterHollow

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Posted 23 March 2013 - 02:28 PM

I'm guessing the biggest factor in the Bills draft choices this year will be how deep the respective positions are that are available at each pick. For instance, if a WR, LB, and QB are available at 8 with similar grades - they'll likely be picking the player with the shallowest depth at that position. I mean to say, it wouldn't be hard to pass on a QB if the next few QB's on their list were not much differently graded, whereas if the LB, for instance, was considerably higher rated than the next LB's on their list, then, when filling needs, they probably go with the LB - merely because they won't get another shot at that level of talent later in the draft.

I think that will really influence this draft - and probably most at LB. There just doesn't seem to be a lot of high end depth at LB, whereas at WR and QB, the difference in talent between WR's and QB's taken in round 2 and 3, for instance, probably won't be much different.

Scarcity in players in the draft, and need on the team, only trumped by elite level, pro-bowl talent. That's my take on the Bills eventual draft philosophy.

#17 billsfan_34

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Posted 23 March 2013 - 02:37 PM

Great feedback from all. It's going to be interesting that's for sure.

#18 BillnutinHouston

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Posted 23 March 2013 - 02:58 PM

View PostK-9, on 23 March 2013 - 12:48 PM, said:

While both players were close in their overall rankings, most NFL teams had Dareus ranked higher than Green on their main boards, just behind Von Miller.

These kind of statements crack me up.  How do people "know" this?  Exactly when are team's boards released to the general public?

#19 Trader

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Posted 23 March 2013 - 03:00 PM




"An offensive guard like Warmack would earn a very high player grade. But he wouldn't earn as high a grade on the game changer dimension, because there aren't as many opportunities for an OG to be a game changer ..."

I think the presence of CJ Spiller at RB could change the Impact of a player like Warmack.  If you are in a position to run the ball for a TD no matter the D a player like Warmack becomes a much bigger factor.

#20 Orton's Arm

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Posted 23 March 2013 - 03:47 PM

View PostTrader, on 23 March 2013 - 03:00 PM, said:

"An offensive guard like Warmack would earn a very high player grade. But he wouldn't earn as high a grade on the game changer dimension, because there aren't as many opportunities for an OG to be a game changer ..."

I think the presence of CJ Spiller at RB could change the Impact of a player like Warmack.  If you are in a position to run the ball for a TD no matter the D a player like Warmack becomes a much bigger factor.

I too feel intrigued by the idea of adding Warmack to the Bills' war machine, for the reason you mentioned.  On the other hand, if a reasonably good NFL defense commits to stopping the run, then as a general rule it will be successful. It will be tougher for Warmack to push people around in the NFL than it was in college. Don't get me wrong--I still expect him to be a very good or exceptional OG--but even with that we shouldn't necessarily expect to be consistently successful at running the ball against defenses geared up to stop the run. Not if the defenses in question are good.

On the other hand, an OL with guys like Warmack, plus a RB like Spiller, would force defenses to commit to stopping the run. That would open up opportunities in the passing game. At the moment, the Bills don't have the QB or the #2 WR they need to exploit those opportunities.

One possibility would be for the Bills to trade down to around #15 overall for Warmack. Then they could use whatever picks they got from that, plus their second rounder, to trade back into the first for their QB.