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My theory on the draft and 2013 season


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#1 Harryhood280

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 01:26 AM

I'm a life long Bills fan and just joined this board recently.

Let's look at the facts regarding quarterbacks. The 2013 daft class is considered to be extremely weak. There is really only one guy universally regarded as being worthy of a first round pick: Geno Smith. And even he is not a sure thing by any means. If he falls to eight, I hope they take him, but I seriously doubt that will happen.

Meanwhile, the Bills have a plethora of other needs. LB, WR, Guard, DE, CB, TE.

Realistically, the bills are not going to be contenders in 2013. While I have high hopes for Marrone and his staff, there will certainly be some growing pains in his first stint as an nfl head coach. The number one priority after the draft should be locking up CJ Spiller to a long term deal. Before that, they should focus their 1st and 2nd round picks on other positions of need. Take a QB in the 3rd or 4th round. Maybe they get lucky and he turns into the franchise guy, but in the meantime start the season with T Jackson as the starter. They will have a top 10, more likely top 5 pick in the 2014 draft which is considered to have a much stronger QB class. Draft your franchise guy then.

We have been waiting nearly two decades for a new franchise QB. What's another year? Why take a complete gamble at 8 with a QB (unless it's Geno...he is the only guy worth drafting that high) when they can get a player at another position of need that is nearly a sure thing?

#2 rayray808

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 02:36 AM

which QB's will emerge to success at the NFL level is a crap shoot in itself... the system, supporting cast, play calls, and even simple luck/timing all play a key factor.

in my opinion, wether we draft one in the first, second or third round it will all be a crapshoot if he pans out or not.

the only way we can tank a season is to start with Tavaris, keep our rookie QB on the bench... then plan on going Clowney #1 next draft, and our QB start next season.

Edited by rayray808, 26 March 2013 - 02:36 AM.


#3 NewEra

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 02:47 AM

View Postrayray808, on 26 March 2013 - 02:36 AM, said:

which QB's will emerge to success at the NFL level is a crap shoot in itself... the system, supporting cast, play calls, and even simple luck/timing all play a key factor.

in my opinion, wether we draft one in the first, second or third round it will all be a crapshoot if he pans out or not.

the only way we can tank a season is to start with Tavaris, keep our rookie QB on the bench... then plan on going Clowney #1 next draft, and our QB start next season.

Getting the #1 pick is unlikely.  Clowney will be off the board and we'll get our QB in the 1st next year.  I believe that we're going to draft a QB with our first pick and try and build with him.  Like the OP suggests, I think our best chance is to fill our needs this year and get our QB next year.  The talent just isn't there this year.  Too many question marks from every QB.  Geno is the only guy really worth a high 1st and anyone not worth a high first is just too much of a gamble considering we can draft a possible 5 year starter in the 1st,  2nd and even 3rd.  If Dysert, nassib, Scott or someone else slip to rd 4, take him and throw him to the wolves.  Building our talent level then getting our QB next year is the best route to success IMO.  Sometimes you have to hit rock bottom before you can rebuild.  Especially when you don't have a qb

#4 frogger

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 05:01 AM

This time last year everyone was assuming that Barkley was the number one overall selection in 2013, I recall some saying he had better numbers in a similar system than luck and some rated him higher than RG3.  Right now everyone is high on all the QBs in next years draft.  While I'm not high on this class I do feel Barkley and smith are potentially franchise qbs.  Classic grass is always greener scenario.  Don't intentionally tank because you think there is some golden ticket waiting.

#5 RuntheDamnBall

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 05:45 AM

View PostHarryhood280, on 26 March 2013 - 01:26 AM, said:

We have been waiting nearly two decades for a new franchise QB. What's another year? Why take a complete gamble at 8 with a QB (unless it's Geno...he is the only guy worth drafting that high) when they can get a player at another position of need that is nearly a sure thing?
Welcome to the board.  I think what you suggest might be possible, though I really hope Geno is there and they pull the trigger.  I do caution against the notion of a "sure thing" around these parts.  Sure things can end up being guys like Mike Williams, too.

The sure things available at this point appear to be the offensive linemen.  This is one area where the Bills seem to have done well picking from the waiver wire and under-the-radar free agents, but they do need guards now (a situation of their own making).  Warmack will probably be there and I hate the idea of drafting a guard so early to replace a very good guard that they groomed and just let leave.  That said, it does line up.  If one of the top tackles falls to them, I'm sure they have to consider that, too.  Who else strikes you as a sure thing worthy of #8, though?  Maybe Milliner, in which case, get prepared for the apoplectic on this board ;)

#6 Aaron

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 06:13 AM

View Postfrogger, on 26 March 2013 - 05:01 AM, said:

This time last year everyone was assuming that Barkley was the number one overall selection in 2013, I recall some saying he had better numbers in a similar system than luck and some rated him higher than RG3.  Right now everyone is high on all the QBs in next years draft.  While I'm not high on this class I do feel Barkley and smith are potentially franchise qbs.  Classic grass is always greener scenario.  Don't intentionally tank because you think there is some golden ticket waiting.
Its tough trying to figure out exactly what Barkley is missing. Everyone points to arm strength but I've seen him sling it 60 yards in the air and I've seen him put it on a line in the 15-yard range. He has great touch but can also put zip on the ball when he has to, and nobody seems to question his intangibles or his accuracy.

Like you said, last year he was looked at as a #1 overall and he had a great year in 2012. I think we'd be lucky to get him at 8.

#7 8and8Forever

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 06:15 AM

View PostHarryhood280, on 26 March 2013 - 01:26 AM, said:

I'm a life long Bills fan and just joined this board recently.

Let's look at the facts regarding quarterbacks. The 2013 daft class is considered to be extremely weak. There is really only one guy universally regarded as being worthy of a first round pick: Geno Smith. And even he is not a sure thing by any means. If he falls to eight, I hope they take him, but I seriously doubt that will happen.

Meanwhile, the Bills have a plethora of other needs. LB, WR, Guard, DE, CB, TE.

Realistically, the bills are not going to be contenders in 2013. While I have high hopes for Marrone and his staff, there will certainly be some growing pains in his first stint as an nfl head coach. The number one priority after the draft should be locking up CJ Spiller to a long term deal. Before that, they should focus their 1st and 2nd round picks on other positions of need. Take a QB in the 3rd or 4th round. Maybe they get lucky and he turns into the franchise guy, but in the meantime start the season with T Jackson as the starter. They will have a top 10, more likely top 5 pick in the 2014 draft which is considered to have a much stronger QB class. Draft your franchise guy then.

We have been waiting nearly two decades for a new franchise QB. What's another year? Why take a complete gamble at 8 with a QB (unless it's Geno...he is the only guy worth drafting that high) when they can get a player at another position of need that is nearly a sure thing?
Cold sober post (how unusual for this board) and agree, but I never have seen Geno Smith look good in a game against top competition.   To bet the franchise on that guy at 8 is a helluva gamble.

#8 Beerball

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 06:40 AM

View Post8and8Forever, on 26 March 2013 - 06:15 AM, said:

To bet the franchise on that guy at 8 is a helluva gamble.
The alternative (to any QB picked in Rd. 1 or 2) is more of the same crap we've been watching only worse. Yeah, it's a gamble, but what pick isn't? Choices are roll the dice and take your guy or...???

#9 mrags

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 06:40 AM

View Postfrogger, on 26 March 2013 - 05:01 AM, said:

This time last year everyone was assuming that Barkley was the number one overall selection in 2013, I recall some saying he had better numbers in a similar system than luck and some rated him higher than RG3.  Right now everyone is high on all the QBs in next years draft.  While I'm not high on this class I do feel Barkley and smith are potentially franchise qbs.  Classic grass is always greener scenario.  Don't intentionally tank because you think there is some golden ticket waiting.
this-----^

I'd also like to add:
I don't care if they have to draft a QB every single year to get it right. I want them to draft a QB every single year until they find thier next franchise guy. If that means taking one with the 1st round pick every year, I'm perfectly fine with it.

On a side note, I don't know if there's much or any drop off with the QBs this year ranked highly. So if I can get Patterson, or Jordan in the 1st and a Manuel, Nassib, Jones in the second, then in all for it.

Personally I don't think Geno Smith is all that great, I haven't watched his whole career, only small bits of him and I can tell you I don't like his delivery at all. Something about it. Maybe I need to see it again but that's my take in it now. And Barkley, I get the stats, and all that but at the end of the day, I'm superstitious about USC QBs and almost NONE of them panning out. Carson Palmer is about the best one of recent memory and personally I always thought he sucked. Chad Johnson and TJ Housh... Made him look much better than he is. Again, my opinion.

So with all that said, with the little knowledge I have with the QBs coming out, I have serious doubts about Smith and Barkley and the concensus is they are the only ones projected in the first round, I'm fine with a Nassib or Manuel in the 2nd. But then again, this is the NFL draft and there's plenty of teams that pick ahead of us that need QBs and of course every years there's a new record for trades in the 1st round so you might as well take one in the 1st when you know you can get one.

#10 It's in My Blood

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 07:34 AM

Buddy has stated multiple times that he will draft a QB, perhaps even trade up for one.  Like it or not, this is the year we finally draft a qb, even if the perceived talent falls short of previous years.

#11 jletha

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 08:25 AM

View PostHarryhood280, on 26 March 2013 - 01:26 AM, said:

I'm a life long Bills fan and just joined this board recently.

Let's look at the facts regarding quarterbacks. The 2013 daft class is considered to be extremely weak. There is really only one guy universally regarded as being worthy of a first round pick: Geno Smith. And even he is not a sure thing by any means. If he falls to eight, I hope they take him, but I seriously doubt that will happen.

Meanwhile, the Bills have a plethora of other needs. LB, WR, Guard, DE, CB, TE.

Realistically, the bills are not going to be contenders in 2013. While I have high hopes for Marrone and his staff, there will certainly be some growing pains in his first stint as an nfl head coach. The number one priority after the draft should be locking up CJ Spiller to a long term deal. Before that, they should focus their 1st and 2nd round picks on other positions of need. Take a QB in the 3rd or 4th round. Maybe they get lucky and he turns into the franchise guy, but in the meantime start the season with T Jackson as the starter. They will have a top 10, more likely top 5 pick in the 2014 draft which is considered to have a much stronger QB class. Draft your franchise guy then.

We have been waiting nearly two decades for a new franchise QB. What's another year? Why take a complete gamble at 8 with a QB (unless it's Geno...he is the only guy worth drafting that high) when they can get a player at another position of need that is nearly a sure thing?

Thank you for making this post.  This is the smartest post I have seen on here and it what Ive been trying to tell my friends.  We need to scrap this year and focus on 2014 really.  Use this year to fill in holes (we have many) with high draft choices that are not QBs. Use the cap space to extend Byrd, sign Spiller and Wood and then in 2014 go after a top QB with out inevitably high draft choice and use the rest of the cap space to fill in more holes.  Reaching on a QB this year and leaving many holes to try to fill in at other positions next year is not the right approach when you look at the quality of the QBs coming out next year.

#12 Maddog69

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 08:36 AM

So many people want to wait until next year to draft a QB.  Who is to say that next years class will be any better.
McCarron is supposedly a 2nd-3rd rd talent.   Manziel may not come out. What if Boyd and/or Murray struggle this coming season or (god forbid) suffer major injuries.    Next years class might not look quite so good in a year.   This years class does not have the clear cut, blue-chip prospect.   But it does boast a handful of very good prospects. We need to identify the best one for the Bills franchise and then go get him.    If a blue-chip prospect QB falls in our lap next year, we might just end up with 2 good QBs.    Wouldn't that be a nice problem to have?

#13 NewEra

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 11:10 AM

View PostMaddog69, on 26 March 2013 - 08:36 AM, said:

So many people want to wait until next year to draft a QB.  Who is to say that next years class will be any better.
McCarron is supposedly a 2nd-3rd rd talent.   Manziel may not come out. What if Boyd and/or Murray struggle this coming season or (god forbid) suffer major injuries.    Next years class might not look quite so good in a year.   This years class does not have the clear cut, blue-chip prospect.   But it does boast a handful of very good prospects.     We need to identify the best one for the Bills franchise and then go get him.    If a blue-chip prospect QB falls in our lap next year, we might just end up with 2 good QBs.    Wouldn't that be a nice problem to have?

Do you know who Teddy Bridgewater is?  Yeah.  He's good

#14 jletha

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 11:10 AM

McCarron is definitely not 2nd to 3rd round talent. He is without a doubt 1st rounder

Edited by jletha, 26 March 2013 - 11:11 AM.


#15 ChevyVanMiller

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 11:19 AM

Welcome - if your subsequent posts live up to the quality of your first one you're going to be a welcome addition to the discussion here.

I can't argue with your logic, but I find myself thinking that the one huge error this franchise has made througout its existence is to neglect the drafting of a 1st Rd. QB. If they think Barkley, Smith, Nassib or heck, someone like Landry, Glennon or Manuel is THE guy - they need to roll the bones and take him.

I won't ever criticize the Bills for being bold and being wrong - it's passivity that has screwed this team for decades.

Edited by ChevyVanMiller, 26 March 2013 - 11:19 AM.


#16 Maddog69

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 11:25 AM

View PostNewEra, on 26 March 2013 - 11:10 AM, said:

Do you know who Teddy Bridgewater is?  Yeah.  He's good
Yep, he another hyped QB who has yet to prove anything (see Jake Locker who was the proclaimed "15yr starter/Sure HOFer) until his senior season. My point is that nobody knows what next year will bring.

#17 Wayne Cubed

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 11:39 AM

View PostBeerball, on 26 March 2013 - 06:40 AM, said:

The alternative (to any QB picked in Rd. 1 or 2) is more of the same crap we've been watching only worse. Yeah, it's a gamble, but what pick isn't? Choices are roll the dice and take your guy or...???

This.

I'll never understand people who think any other position isn't a gamble. Guess what? If you you pick a different position at #8 (LB, DL, WR, CB) the chances of them succeeding in the NFL are still the same if you pick a QB.  It's still the same risk.  What if the Bills do go with a WR at #8 and Geno Smith goes next pick to the Jets. Then the WR flops and Geno goes on to have a productive career. Was it wise to wait then? The draft is a crap shoot.

#18 Leelee Phoenix

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 11:46 AM

I generally agree with the OP. Common people don't fully understand how bad this QB class is. The only reason mocks have QBs so high is because of previous drafts, and Dear Leader Goodell turning the league into pitch and catch. But, there's no sure thing at any position at 8 this year. There's many promising talents, but no "blue chippers".

Buddy Nix locked the Bills into needing to draft a QB this draft. HIs handling of the QB situation warrants immediate dismissal. Even desperate Bills homers who only go to games as an excuse to get drunk during early hours will be hard to buy into Tarvaris Jackson, Aaron Corp and some backup FA.

#19 Billsrhody

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 11:51 AM

I'm on board.. lets take the best player available and build our team. We'll get a QB next year.. when there are good QBs

#20 Iraq Vet

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 11:56 AM

Take the best player avalible... New coach, New staff, New GM, New CEO, New QB,  0-16,  1-15, 2-14.... it does not matter, 2013 is about the future.  Play the rookies and young guys... don't put wear and tear on the old guys... We need them all ready for 2014.