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Cool and Calm look at Bills moves


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#1 Alphadawg7

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 02:40 PM

Lol, with the Kolb signing this board is as bipolar as ever...people predicting the first pick in the draft next year to people thinking it was a good move.  Add that in to all the bipolar feelings of the other moves and its chaos in most threads lol.  So lets take a look at whats really gone down, why, and where they can go from here objectively.

1 - Our own FA's...Most agree Bills made an intelligent decision choosing to prioritize Byrd over Levitre.  Byrd is a more talented player and many believe one of the 3 best FS in football, and some think the top dog overall.  Levitre, a very good player for us, was going to be over paid and the Bills made a smart decision not to bite on it.  Look at all the huge FA signings for guards...they never work out and only really hurt the cap.  This was a the better move moving forward.  Rhinehart would have been nice, but he was nothing special and was paid more than he was worth.  Guards are right there with RB's as one of the more easier positions to find good players.  Choice was also kept, which I like as he is good depth, depth we will need if FJ cant stay healthy again.

2 - QB...best move of the off season was to cut Fitz.  He was not the answer and was only holding this franchise back from truly going into a new direction under the new regime.  Resigning TJ was a good move and a cheap price as he would be a solid backup and an upgrade over Pigpen.  The newest move is Kolb...on the surface this is very ehhhhh, but the reality is that this was a solid signing considering what is available in the draft and FA market.  What this signing does for the Bills is allow them NOT to be forced into reaching for a QB at #8, which is the best part of this add.  It gives them the freedom to go BPA at 8 rather than reach for need.  Same goes for rounds 2 and 3.  Worst case scenario, TJ and Kolb battle it out and we ride with one until next draft year where the QB class is believed to be stronger (and we would likely still have a top half first round pick) and we use this one to take advantage of the depth of the draft at D front 7, WR, TE, and OL.  

3 - LB...Lawson I think for the most part is seen as a very solid move for this D as he fills an important need of a LB who can drop back in coverage.  Just a good all around move in my book.  That being said, another addition of a good vet like Dansby would really help solidify this unit going into the draft.  Add in a young stud prospect (maybe at 8 like Ogletree, Jarvis, or some slight chance Teo slips to the 2nd) and we can have a D with a lot of potential again under our new regime.  

4 - WR...This was addition by subtraction as we didn't add anyone, but we also didn't use cap money to retain guys that really were not play makers.  I am probably in the minority here, but I still think Easley has some potential and could be a surprise player this camp.  But more importantly, I think the Bills most certainly grab a WR in the first or 2nd.  The Kolb signing makes this even more likely given they no longer have to reach for a QB.  I would not be surprised the first 2 rounds to go LB & WR or vice versa.  I would love Jarvis then Hunter personally if someone like Geno/Barkley isnt there at 8 (which I don't think either will be).  

Overall Picture...I think this team is headed in the right direction right now.  They didnt over spend on this roster where it likely wouldn't have made much difference next year given the lack of QB stability anyway.  They have positioned themselves to not have to reach in the draft, and if we hit on a few picks then next off season this could be a team on the rise with cap room to be a player in FA and a lot fewer holes to fill.  So while many are all doom and gloom, I think the FO has actually made some smart moves this off season.  I would still love to add a FA guy like Dansby and maybe a G or WR too after the draft to help round the roster out a bit more, but there is still time for that and plenty of solid players on the market still who's price is only going to continue to go down from here on out.  

My Off Season Grade:  B

#2 Jkgobills

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 03:07 PM

View PostAlphadawg7, on 31 March 2013 - 02:40 PM, said:

Lol, with the Kolb signing this board is as bipolar as ever...people predicting the first pick in the draft next year to people thinking it was a good move.  Add that in to all the bipolar feelings of the other moves and its chaos in most threads lol.  So lets take a look at whats really gone down, why, and where they can go from here objectively.

1 - Our own FA's...Most agree Bills made an intelligent decision choosing to prioritize Byrd over Levitre.  Byrd is a more talented player and many believe one of the 3 best FS in football, and some think the top dog overall.  Levitre, a very good player for us, was going to be over paid and the Bills made a smart decision not to bite on it.  Look at all the huge FA signings for guards...they never work out and only really hurt the cap.  This was a the better move moving forward.  Rhinehart would have been nice, but he was nothing special and was paid more than he was worth.  Guards are right there with RB's as one of the more easier positions to find good players.  Choice was also kept, which I like as he is good depth, depth we will need if FJ cant stay healthy again.

2 - QB...best move of the off season was to cut Fitz.  He was not the answer and was only holding this franchise back from truly going into a new direction under the new regime.  Resigning TJ was a good move and a cheap price as he would be a solid backup and an upgrade over Pigpen.  The newest move is Kolb...on the surface this is very ehhhhh, but the reality is that this was a solid signing considering what is available in the draft and FA market.  What this signing does for the Bills is allow them NOT to be forced into reaching for a QB at #8, which is the best part of this add.  It gives them the freedom to go BPA at 8 rather than reach for need.  Same goes for rounds 2 and 3.  Worst case scenario, TJ and Kolb battle it out and we ride with one until next draft year where the QB class is believed to be stronger (and we would likely still have a top half first round pick) and we use this one to take advantage of the depth of the draft at D front 7, WR, TE, and OL.  

3 - LB...Lawson I think for the most part is seen as a very solid move for this D as he fills an important need of a LB who can drop back in coverage.  Just a good all around move in my book.  That being said, another addition of a good vet like Dansby would really help solidify this unit going into the draft.  Add in a young stud prospect (maybe at 8 like Ogletree, Jarvis, or some slight chance Teo slips to the 2nd) and we can have a D with a lot of potential again under our new regime.  

4 - WR...This was addition by subtraction as we didn't add anyone, but we also didn't use cap money to retain guys that really were not play makers.  I am probably in the minority here, but I still think Easley has some potential and could be a surprise player this camp.  But more importantly, I think the Bills most certainly grab a WR in the first or 2nd.  The Kolb signing makes this even more likely given they no longer have to reach for a QB.  I would not be surprised the first 2 rounds to go LB & WR or vice versa.  I would love Jarvis then Hunter personally if someone like Geno/Barkley isnt there at 8 (which I don't think either will be).  

Overall Picture...I think this team is headed in the right direction right now.  They didnt over spend on this roster where it likely wouldn't have made much difference next year given the lack of QB stability anyway.  They have positioned themselves to not have to reach in the draft, and if we hit on a few picks then next off season this could be a team on the rise with cap room to be a player in FA and a lot fewer holes to fill.  So while many are all doom and gloom, I think the FO has actually made some smart moves this off season.  I would still love to add a FA guy like Dansby and maybe a G or WR too after the draft to help round the roster out a bit more, but there is still time for that and plenty of solid players on the market still who's price is only going to continue to go down from here on out.  

My Off Season Grade:  B

I agree with your overall picture of the Bills off season.  I think the combination of the past 13 years has put a lot of Bills fans in a state of perpetual agitation and it comes out in the posts.

The Bills are well positioned now to take the best player available at pick 8.  It could be Geno or Barkley if they are available or the best LB, WR or OL they have on their board.  With Kolb on the roster they don't have to take the third QB taken in the draft at pick 8.  This would have been drafting for need rather than taking the best player they could.  Also, it allows them the potential of trading into lower part of first round and taking a QB there and gaining some extra picks.

If they fail to draft a QB early (first two rounds) I will be more concerned.  As many have posted they may be well served to take one early this year, and if need be, next year.  What's the worst that happens we end up with two good young QBs?!  Then we trade one of them down the line for other needs.  With the new rookie cap drafting QBs early is like buying stocks low with the potential to sell high.

The only part of the OP I disagree with is the grade.  I would give them a "C".  Average for now, but a higher grade is within their reach with a good draft and 2-3 more free agent pick ups.  

Thanks for the well thought out OP.

#3 KollegeStudnet

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 03:15 PM

This is just me, but I give Buddy an "A" for dadgummit and Thurman a "B-" for his mofo tweet.

#4 Green Lightning

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 03:23 PM

View PostKollegeStudnet, on 31 March 2013 - 03:15 PM, said:

This is just me, but I give Buddy an "A" for dadgummit and Thurman a "B-" for his mofo tweet.

Mofo rates at least an A-

#5 Jkgobills

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 03:34 PM

View PostKollegeStudnet, on 31 March 2013 - 03:15 PM, said:

This is just me, but I give Buddy an "A" for dadgummit and Thurman a "B-" for his mofo tweet.


LMAO!

#6 billstolast

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 03:53 PM

I agree with every point from the original post except if teo falls to second rd we should pass, teo wouldn't start at half the schools in sec..and looked slow and weak vs alabama and really against pitt too...I think wr and te are huge concerns..got to be addressed in first 4 rounds. Rounds 1 thru 4 got to be lb, wr, te, qb (not in that order) I would like to see them sign a fa guard..and draft one late..

#7 billsfan714

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 04:00 PM

So with less receivers were better off?   And what gives you hope in Marcus Easley who has never caught a pass in his career?   Top to bottom this is probably the weakest receiver corps in the NFL.

#8 OldTimer1960

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 04:02 PM

View PostJkgobills, on 31 March 2013 - 03:07 PM, said:



If they fail to draft a QB early (first two rounds) I will be more concerned.  As many have posted they may be well served to take one early this year, and if need be, next year.  What's the worst that happens we end up with two good young QBs?!  Then we trade one of them down the line for other needs.  With the new rookie cap drafting QBs early is like buying stocks low with the potential

If they do not draft a QB in the 1st or 2nd, rest assured it is because they didn't like anyone that was available.  The worst that could happen taking one early this year and next is definitely not that you could end up with two good ones.  It is that you could still wind up with no good ones and nothing to show for two high picks.  Of course picks at other positions can be missed on too, but I am certain that if they think any QB available has a reasonable chance of being good, they will nab one.  If they don't take one early, it is safe to say that they didn't like any of the ones available at their picks

#9 Alphadawg7

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 05:02 PM

View Postbillsfan714, on 31 March 2013 - 04:00 PM, said:

So with less receivers were better off?   And what gives you hope in Marcus Easley who has never caught a pass in his career?   Top to bottom this is probably the weakest receiver corps in the NFL.

I said it was addition by subtraction because we did not waste money on below average WR's that were not play makers.  I was not saying the existing group as it sits today is better, I said it was better to let them walk then to waste money on guys who don't make plays.  That opens up the door for us to draft more talented WR's.  Our group of WR's today will not be the same group come training camp, they are going to draft some WR's in the draft, they have already said that.  So, again, its addition by subtraction by saving the money and using the money on WR's with more upside in the draft.  So, letting those 2 guys go was a good move IMO so we can bring in better prospects.

As far as Easley goes, I acknowledged I am in the minority, but I feel he has potential to be a surprise player this year on both ST and as a contributor on offense.  He has shown flashes of real potential and I think with the new regime making all positions a truly open competition with no one they are partial too, he will get an opportunity to compete and could surprise.

#10 KeisterHollow

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 05:10 PM

View PostOldTimer1960, on 31 March 2013 - 04:02 PM, said:

If they do not draft a QB in the 1st or 2nd, rest assured it is because they didn't like anyone that was available.  The worst that could happen taking one early this year and next is definitely not that you could end up with two good ones.  It is that you could still wind up with no good ones and nothing to show for two high picks.  Of course picks at other positions can be missed on too, but I am certain that if they think any QB available has a reasonable chance of being good, they will nab one.  If they don't take one early, it is safe to say that they didn't like any of the ones available at their picks

I agree - there are a lot of QB's in this draft who MIGHT be good, given the right system, the right coaching, etc.  If the Bills see any of these QB's as franchise QB material, they'll take them if available.  Now, at least, they don't have to go QB with their 1st pick, which not only gives them the ability to wait, but it strengthens their trade ability, because now teams won't be able to just plug in the best QB to them at 8 - which will give a team that wants a specific player more incentive to try and move up.

As I see it, I'd be happy if the Bills went Barkley with their first pick, or Manuel / Nassib with their second, or Bray, Wilson, or Glennon with their 3rd, or Matt Scott / Dysert with their 4th.  Each of these QB's has enough to maybe work out, and would be good for a competition and some coaching - and there would be positives, with the later round guys, of being able to address other needs early.

#11 Jkgobills

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 05:36 PM




]

View PostOldTimer1960, on 31 March 2013 - 04:02 PM, said:



If they do not draft a QB in the 1st or 2nd, rest assured it is because they didn't like anyone that was available.  The worst that could happen taking one early this year and next is definitely not that you could end up with two good ones.  It is that you could still wind up with no good ones and nothing to show for two high picks.  Of course picks at other positions can be missed on too, but I am certain that if they think any QB available has a reasonable chance of being good, they will nab one.  If they don't take one early, it is safe to say that they didn't like any of the ones available at their picks

The problem is that our front office has "not liked" a lot of decent QBs for the past several drafts.  This has left us drafting no one significant ( my apologies to Levi Brown) at the most significant position in football.  Someone drafted at QB in the first two rounds of this years draft will be an above average starter, perhaps a great starter in the NFL.  Our front office better find a way to "like" him and draft him.

#12 Saint Doug

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 05:48 PM

View PostOldTimer1960, on 31 March 2013 - 04:02 PM, said:

If they do not draft a QB in the 1st or 2nd, rest assured it is because they didn't like anyone that was available.

But that was the same logic behind not taking one the last 3 years. I know you think drafting a good QB is hard, which is why 9/10 of us wouldn't be able to pick one, but that doesn't give Nix an excuse for not being able to identify a winner. He's a professional, likely making more money we could ever wish for. Him and his men have got to start working for it.

As for the OP, great post. But, I'm going to remain guarded in terms of us picking Byrd over Levitre. We've basically signed him to a 1 year contract, same as we did with Nate Clements. We've heard nothing about us trying to iron out a long term contract with him. I'll believe it when it happens.

As for Kolb, this is a situation where we were aiming to upgrade a position and we did. We only had 1 real QB on the roster, a questionable one at best (there's a reason he was inactive every game last year, supposedly due to lack of game plan knowledge, and now he has learn a new one). Kolb will be TJ's competition and it didn't cost a pick. Who knows what will happen with him. He's relatively young and hasn't been given a fair shake. Some QBs take longer to develop than others.

#13 OldTimer1960

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 06:37 PM

View Postkas23, on 31 March 2013 - 05:48 PM, said:



But that was the same logic behind not taking one the last 3 years. I know you think drafting a good QB is hard, which is why 9/10 of us wouldn't be able to pick one, but that doesn't give Nix an excuse for not being able to identify a winner. He's a professional, likely making more money we could ever wish for. Him and his men have got to start working for it.

No doubt that it is His job to identify a great QB, but I still think it is VERY underrated how hard it is to find/evaluate these guys.  For one example, look back a few years when Alex Smith went #1 overall and Aaron Rodgers lasted into the 20s.  Certainly there were teams between 1 and GB had need for a QB and yet they missed on him.  Also, in a QB-starved league, how could it be that Tom Brady was a 6th round pick and Colin Kaepernick lasted till round two and Russell Wilson round 3?  

Some believe it was great talent evaluation on NE's, SF's and Seattle's part.  Truth (in my view) is they lucked out.  I don't think anyone can say that there wer not MANY other teams that needed QBs those years, but yet no other team took those guys even when they had the chance to.

#14 Pete

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 06:48 PM

Losing Levitre, Nelson, Kelsay, Merriman, Jones, Wilson, etc and adding Lawson and Kolb - huge !@#$ing F

#15 RuntheDamnBall

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 06:56 PM

View Postbillsfan714, on 31 March 2013 - 04:00 PM, said:

So with less receivers were better off?   And what gives you hope in Marcus Easley who has never caught a pass in his career?   Top to bottom this is probably the weakest receiver corps in the NFL.
Don't worry.  If they make it better, they will be better.

#16 MattM

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 07:02 PM

Personally, I think they could still salvage this offseason if they do something like:

--sign Brandon Moore at G and pickup a CB in FA (perhaps Jenkins)
--if Geno's not there, find a way to trade back (perhaps if Dee Miliner's still there someone might bite --perhaps even SF with their CB needs and multiple early round picks) for a 1 and 2 and take someone like Patterson and perhaps package a 2 and 3 and come back up to get Manuel late in the first and then use the remaining 2 on a LB--finding a trading partner here is admittedly not easy
--go BPA (which hopefully includes a TE) after that

We'd have plugged most of our holes and if the rooks pan out might have a decent team....

#17 billsfan714

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 07:03 PM

View PostAlphadawg7, on 31 March 2013 - 05:02 PM, said:

I said it was addition by subtraction because we did not waste money on below average WR's that were not play makers.  I was not saying the existing group as it sits today is better, I said it was better to let them walk then to waste money on guys who don't make plays.  That opens up the door for us to draft more talented WR's.  Our group of WR's today will not be the same group come training camp, they are going to draft some WR's in the draft, they have already said that.  So, again, its addition by subtraction by saving the money and using the money on WR's with more upside in the draft.  So, letting those 2 guys go was a good move IMO so we can bring in better prospects.

As far as Easley goes, I acknowledged I am in the minority, but I feel he has potential to be a surprise player this year on both ST and as a contributor on offense.  He has shown flashes of real potential and I think with the new regime making all positions a truly open competition with no one they are partial too, he will get an opportunity to compete and could surprise.

If this was about not wasting money on receivers then Brad Smith should be gone.   He had 240 yards receiving in 2011 and 152 in 2012. Thats street FA production numbers. But were paying him what 3 million for that. And genius Nix signed the KO return specialist in time for the KO rule change. Again Easley stats in the NFL are 0-0-0, not sure what "flashes" he's shown unless your talking about  the second half of some preseason game.

Edited by billsfan714, 31 March 2013 - 07:54 PM.


#18 Saint Doug

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 08:04 PM

View PostOldTimer1960, on 31 March 2013 - 06:37 PM, said:



No doubt that it is His job to identify a great QB, but I still think it is VERY underrated how hard it is to find/evaluate these guys.  For one example, look back a few years when Alex Smith went #1 overall and Aaron Rodgers lasted into the 20s.  Certainly there were teams between 1 and GB had need for a QB and yet they missed on him.  Also, in a QB-starved league, how could it be that Tom Brady was a 6th round pick and Colin Kaepernick lasted till round two and Russell Wilson round 3?  

Some believe it was great talent evaluation on NE's, SF's and Seattle's part.  Truth (in my view) is they lucked out.  I don't think anyone can say that there wer not MANY other teams that needed QBs those years, but yet no other team took those guys even when they had the chance to.

They may have lucked out indeed. But, they now have very promising QBs and may be set for years. That's not going to happen, ever, if you're sitting on the sideline wondering about getting in the game. That's why I fault Nix. Even if we drafted a QB in the first round each of the 3 years and struck out with each one of them (an unlikely scenario), we would still be no worse off than we are right now. He didn't even try, but other teams did and they're now reaping the rewards.

#19 billsfan89

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 08:11 PM

Still moves to be made plus the draft before I can grade the Bills off-season. I like what moves they made outside of letting David Nelson walk (Considering the lack of talent at WR and how cheap his tenure was the move made no sense), but there just haven't been enough moves made yet in order for me to like their approach just yet.

They can easily fill the hole at guard and they can find some talent around the defensive side of the ball too.

#20 ALF

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 08:12 PM

Why did'nt Nix re-sign Levitre and Byrd last year and trade them for a good draft pick if there price was too high? A good player like Levitre walks like other good players have.