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Averaging Some 2013 Mock Drafts


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#1 folz

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 02:22 AM

I'm coming a bit late to the draft talk, so sorry if this is just rehash...

I know many of you have been talking draft for a while now and I've read a number of posts,
but I'm not really that familiar with the draft prospects (outside of the QBs or high profile guys).
So, I wanted to watch some video of guys that the Bills might draft to get an idea for myself.

But, which players to watch? So, I decided to first look at a number of mock drafts to figure out
who will probably be the best players available at the Bills pick. So, I averaged out about 20 mocks
(by "professional" football sites, not average joe rankings---and all recent: March/April 2013).

These were the results:

Consensus top 6: Avg. mock pos.= under 7 (should be gone by Bills pick according to mocks)
OT Luke Joeckel       1.83
DT Sharrif Floyd        2.83
OT Eric Fisher           4.09
CB Dee Milliner         4.33
DE Dion Jordan         5.40
DE Ziggy Ansah        6.88

slots 7-11: Avg. mock pos. = 10 and under
QB Geno Smith              7.60
DT Star Lotulelei             7.77
OT Lane Johnson           7.88
OG Chance Warmack    10.08
OLB Jarvis Jones           10.63

slots 12-16: Avg. mock pos. = Under 15
DE Barkevious Mingo              12.75
OG Jonathan Cooper              12.87
CB Xavier Rhodes                   13.00
DT Sheldon Richardson           13.90
WR Cordarrelle Patterson        14.41

slots 17-19: Avg. mock pos. = Under 20
SS Kenny Vaccaro           16.42
DE Bjoern Werner            17.18
WR Keenan Allen             19.00

Now I know that mocks are just mocks, but if the average of these mocks give at least a decent
assessment of the players in relation to their talent (not necessarily where they will actually go) then it
looks like the Bills would pick a player from either the 7-11 or 12-16 range above. Anyone
else, from a purely analytic look at these mocks, would be a reach (Barkley, Manuel, Nassib,
Austin, etc.)

With the acquisition of Branch, I'm assuming the bIlls won't go DT (so, I'll eliminate Lotulelei
and Richardson). I don't think we have a big need at DE and he'd be a small reach (so I'd eliminate
Mingo). So, per mock ranking and need it seems like the bills would be choosing from among
the following players [One of which (Smith?) might be gone by our pick]:

First tier (one of these three would appear to be the pick, strictly going by the mocks/need, if they're there)
QB Geno Smith
OG Chance Warmack
OLB Jarvis Jones

Second tier
OT Lane Johnson
OG Jonathan Cooper
WR Cordarrelle Patterson
CB Xavier Rhodes

Does that seem about right to those of you who have been paying more attention to the draft than I have?
Is there a sleeper player not on this list? Do you think one of the top 6 will fall for some reason? Who will
Arizona pick at 7? Who do you like on the list? Who do you think the Bills will draft? I'd love to hear opinions.

#2 Tipster19

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 03:04 AM

Ouch, I'm hoping that one of the 3 players in your top 6 slides to us. In this order this my list of preference.

1. Dion Jordan
2. Ezekiel Ansah
3. Dee Milliner (only so we can trade down with another team who needs a CB. Tampa?)

Btw, nice job on a good, sensible approach on potential candidates. Looking and seeing on who will and why will be there for when we pick, it's hard to dispute. If I have to pick from your list(s) then here who I would like in this order.

1. Chance Warmack
2. Jarvis Jones
3. Xavier Rhodes (if we were to choose him then I would expect and agree on us just keeping him instead of trading back and only because we do have a need at this position and I don't expect someone to trade up for him as much as I did if it were Milliner.)

#3 San Jose Bills Fan

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 09:18 AM

Good work!

For me this just strengthens my conviction that the Bills should either reach for a QB at 8 or trade down a bit.

From your second and third tiers, all of the players are either nearly as big a risk as the QB (without the reward) or at a position that the Bills don't really need to upgrade.

#4 Tipster19

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 09:30 AM

View PostSan Jose Bills Fan, on 08 April 2013 - 09:18 AM, said:

Good work!

For me this just strengthens my conviction that the Bills should either reach for a QB at 8 or trade down a bit.

or at a position that the Bills don't really need to upgrade.

For years Ozzie Newsome and the Ravens drafted the best player even if there were no need and they always turned up gems (Jonathan Ogden comes to mind). Andy Reid and the Eagles stockpiled their secondary when there seemed to be no need there and they had some of their best years because of it. If Buffalo was able to draft a stud at a position that appears that we have no need for I would be good with that. One can never tell how the future will unfold and because of that I'd like to see Buffalo accumulate as many of the best players that they can, especially when we have such high picks in each round, we need to make those picks count and quit chasing lesser players because of our needs.

#5 D521646

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 09:41 AM

View PostTipster19, on 08 April 2013 - 03:04 AM, said:

Ouch, I'm hoping that one of the 3 players in your top 6 slides to us. In this order this my list of preference.

1. Dion Jordan
2. Ezekiel Ansah
3. Dee Milliner (only so we can trade down with another team who needs a CB. Tampa?)

Btw, nice job on a good, sensible approach on potential candidates. Looking and seeing on who will and why will be there for when we pick, it's hard to dispute. If I have to pick from your list(s) then here who I would like in this order.

1. Chance Warmack
2. Jarvis Jones
3. Xavier Rhodes (if we were to choose him then I would expect and agree on us just keeping him instead of trading back and only because we do have a need at this position and I don't expect someone to trade up for him as much as I did if it were Milliner.)


I agree!  I am more and more coming to the conclusion that all signals are pointing to either a trade back (if Millner is there) or Warmack at 8.  It makes sense from a  new coach standpoint.  Other than Stevie, if you’re Hackett, and you see that you have three pretty darn good backs, and an offensive line that is mostly in-tact and needing really just one piece, you go Warmack, and run-first.  It accomplishes several things.  One, it takes the pressure off Kolb or TJax, and places it on the Oline, two, it realizes that adding a guy like Patterson won’t turn you into a pass-first offense anyway, so why add that piece at 8 and increase the risk factor.

To me there is less risk with Warmack as the pick (if we do indeed make a selection at 8) than there is with Patterson.  I LOVE Patterson and I think he’s going to be great in the right system, and with the right QB, but I’m not sure that the Bills are that team.  We could ruin him as a player lie we’ve done with other players, that, to me would have had better careers if playing somewhere else.  The safe pick at 8 is Warmack, and gives you the best, least risky offensive scheme whilst the other guys are learning the ropes.

Just my opinion of course, but selecting Warmack just makes too much sense.

BTQ, good work to the OP.

Tim-

#6 Brainiac21

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 09:45 AM

although fairly recent, i wonder how many took in Jarvis Jones' horrible 40 time and the Kevin Kolb signing.  i bet many of them did not.  i also tend to believe not resigning Levitre is an indictment of how they value LG.  so i'd rule out all of tier 1.

so looking at tier 2, and ruling out the OG again.. that leaves Patterson, Rhodes, and L.Johnson.

i don't think Lane will be there, maybe Ansah instead, and while i disagree, i think Buddy likes his RT (ugh).

so i think it will come down to Patterson, Rhodes, or Ansah as the Bills choices!

#7 Beerball

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 09:51 AM

Here are results from 516 sites if anyone has extra time on their hands.

#8 Flutie7Flakes

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 09:56 AM

View PostBrainiac21, on 08 April 2013 - 09:45 AM, said:

although fairly recent, i wonder how many took in Jarvis Jones' horrible 40 time and the Kevin Kolb signing.  i bet many of them did not.  i also tend to believe not resigning Levitre is an indictment of how they value LG.  so i'd rule out all of tier 1.

so looking at tier 2, and ruling out the OG again.. that leaves Patterson, Rhodes, and L.Johnson.

i don't think Lane will be there, maybe Ansah instead, and while i disagree, i think Buddy likes his RT (ugh).

so i think it will come down to Patterson, Rhodes, or Ansah as the Bills choices!

I think that Ansah, if there is our pick as well as the potential for an OL. Marrone has always coached up his offensive lineman and loves them as his building blocks.

More likely I see all of our possible targets NOT being there at 8, with us having the potential to trade back to the 15-25 range and pick up another 2nd round pick either for 2013 or 2014. This would give us the ability to pick up Nassib at the end of the 1st Round as well as possible drafting Pugh or a solid WR2 with our 2nd rounder. Deep down, we have to believe as Bills fans that Marrone will likely draft Nassib for the short-term (and if it works out, long-term).

Other options I would like is us trading back 5-10 picks, drafting Tavon Austin, Ogletree, or Patterson and then taking Nassib with our 2nd Round pick. This would make the most sense so that we're not overdrafting at the #8 pick and gives us another solid potential rookie in Round 2.

#9 San Jose Bills Fan

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 10:01 AM

View PostTipster19, on 08 April 2013 - 09:30 AM, said:

For years Ozzie Newsome and the Ravens drafted the best player even if there were no need and they always turned up gems (Jonathan Ogden comes to mind). Andy Reid and the Eagles stockpiled their secondary when there seemed to be no need there and they had some of their best years because of it. If Buffalo was able to draft a stud at a position that appears that we have no need for I would be good with that. One can never tell how the future will unfold and because of that I'd like to see Buffalo accumulate as many of the best players that they can, especially when we have such high picks in each round, we need to make those picks count and quit chasing lesser players because of our needs.

If you don't have a QB, you have nothing.

It's far past the point where the Bills have to draft one.

Take one at 8 or trade down and take him at 12, 15 , 17, whatever.

#10 Tipster19

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 10:25 AM

View PostSan Jose Bills Fan, on 08 April 2013 - 10:01 AM, said:



If you don't have a QB, you have nothing.

It's far past the point where the Bills have to draft one.

Take one at 8 or trade down and take him at 12, 15 , 17, whatever.

I would never say never buy if it's going to be a QB for us at the #8 pick then it better be Geno Smith or otherwise take the BAP and take a QB later in the draft. If that later round QB doesn't work out then make QB a priority in next year's draft when there is a better talent pool to choose from. We are not going to be world beaters this year so I don't want to sacrifice good players in this year's draft for just a possible few extra wins because we need a QB. Play out with what we got and gather some good solid pieces in the meantime to construct a team that can win in the future once we acquire the right QB. Of that's just my opinion.

#11 chris heff

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 10:44 AM

View PostSan Jose Bills Fan, on 08 April 2013 - 10:01 AM, said:



If you don't have a QB, you have nothing.

It's far past the point where the Bills have to draft one.

Take one at 8 or trade down and take him at 12, 15 , 17, whatever.
I agree with you. By trading back to say 15 what other pick could the Bills gain?

#12 BuffFromBuffalo

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 11:12 AM

I would absolutlely love if we could sucker Jerry Jones into trading into the top ten, collect some picks from the Cowboys. And get the QB they want in the process. Posted previously there is a muzzle on Buddy this year, really Mcloving the lack of information coming out this year, I think that's the way to go. Who do the powers that be like/dislike? Guessing like everyone else. Makes it exciting.

Go Bills!

Edited by BuffFromBuffalo, 08 April 2013 - 11:13 AM.


#13 cosmo

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 11:27 AM

No Warmack! I can't believe how many people are advocating to take a GUARD 8th overall! I would think that the advantage to having a former o-lineman head coach would be that he'd be able to find guys late in the draft or in FA and coach them up. The only options for the 8th pick should be whichever QB they like or a potential pro bowler on defense.

#14 Brainiac21

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 12:21 PM

View Postchris heff, on 08 April 2013 - 10:44 AM, said:

I agree with you. By trading back to say 15 what other pick could the Bills gain?

probably a 2nd... except i think the Saints are 15 and don't have a 2nd(?).  maybe a 3rd and a 4th would do it.

that said, not all that many will want to trade up... but someone will, esp. if we're willing to take less than going rate.

#15 Why So Serious?

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 12:22 PM

Looking at this positively.
I don't hate any of these players.

QB Geno Smith              7.60
DT Star Lotulelei             7.77
OT Lane Johnson           7.88
OG Chance Warmack    10.08
OLB Jarvis Jones           10.63

I don't overly covet or love any of these players.

In the 11-20 range.

The Spinal Stenosis (sp.) Its a huge risk bit that is what is keeping this attacking, aggressive LB out of the Top7.
Arguably without that diagnosis he could arguably go ahead of Dion Jordan.

#16 Webster Guy

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 12:25 PM

Unless there is a significant free agent WR signing, I do not see us going into the season with ONE good (and injury prone) receiver when most teams have three.

I think we will take WR Patterson at 8, and take the highest QB on our board in the second round.

The way this draft talent is being graded, it's the worst year in a long time to reach for need because some positions are very weak, but Patterson is probably the most reasonable Need vs BPA compromise risk out there.

Jarvis Jones is slow and was a total dick to some local fans that tried to get his autograph last week.  One guy said he is the rudest person he's ever met.   I don't think the new regime is going to burn their first pick on a character issue guy.

I also think Nassib will be there in the second when we pick.

Then again I thought Georgetown was going to win the NCAA tourney.

#17 Brainiac21

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 12:25 PM

View PostWhy So Serious?, on 08 April 2013 - 12:22 PM, said:

Looking at this positively.
I don't hate any of these players.

QB Geno Smith   7.60
DT Star Lotulelei 7.77
OT Lane Johnson    7.88
OG Chance Warmack 10.08
OLB Jarvis Jones    10.63

I don't overly covet or love any of these players.

In the 11-20 range.

The Spinal Stenosis (sp.) Its a huge risk bit that is what is keeping this attacking, aggressive LB out of the Top7.
Arguably without that diagnosis he could arguably go ahead of Dion Jordan.

not with that 40 time.  a tenth doesn't matter... neither does two tenths... but a 4.92?  that is sllloooooowwww... and people have been knocked out of the first round before for such times.

#18 Dorkington

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 01:52 PM

Great read, thanks for putting this together. I've always been a fan of aggregated predictions.

#19 Why So Serious?

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 01:59 PM

View PostBrainiac21, on 08 April 2013 - 12:25 PM, said:

not with that 40 time.  a tenth doesn't matter... neither does two tenths... but a 4.92?  that is sllloooooowwww... and people have been knocked out of the first round before for such times.
What you're comparing is a 40 time of a player running on frozen turf in GA where he pulled up lame Vs Combine numbers in the Indi Dome in ideal temperature.

The tape is what sells Jarvis Jones.
Again, that is up to GMs to discern but I still don't hate Jones. Lots of risk and I would be concerbed about the spine.

#20 NewEra

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 02:56 PM

View PostWhy So Serious?, on 08 April 2013 - 01:59 PM, said:


What you're comparing is a 40 time of a player running on frozen turf in GA where he pulled up lame Vs Combine numbers in the Indi Dome in ideal temperature.

The tape is what sells Jarvis Jones.
Again, that is up to GMs to discern but I still don't hate Jones. Lots of risk and I would be concerbed about the spine.

The tape is what sells Jarvis Jones.  Well said.  Watch him play football.   He's a monster.