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[closed]QBs rising and falling


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#1 Mango

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Posted 11 April 2013 - 11:42 AM

The whole QB situation with the Bills is a bit sloppy, and every year guys fly way up big boards because of all the down time from filming to the draft.

If I am the Bills I would be weary of any QB that makes significant leaps from the end of the college season to the draft.  I understand and agree with the over valued position of QB by maybe a round, but beware of the Gabbert effect. It is just downtime, which leads to excuse making.  If the draft happened 2 weeks after the Super Bowl we would see a much different draft.

-Manuel was a 3rd round grade until the Senior Bowl.  One game is not worth 2 rounds.  
-Nassib was a 3rd or a 4th round grade at seasons end.  What happened between his last game and today that moves him into the bottom of the 1st or the top of the 2nd. Nothing!

I like Manuel quite a bit, but his rise up the draft boards scares the ba-jesus out of me.  Nassib is non-nonsensical.  I think when it comes to any position stick to the film and season.  How guys play not their measurements per say

#2 Bangarang

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Posted 11 April 2013 - 11:49 AM

You do understand that the rankings of people in the media are not the same as the rankings of actual NFL scouts and GMs right?

Maybe teams had Nassib and Manuel rated high the entire time but people you watch on TV and read online are just now getting with the program?

#3 B-Large

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Posted 11 April 2013 - 11:53 AM

I was watching ESPN on Tuesday, Jaws had Nassib as the second best QB in the draft behind Geno, and Barkley at #6.  News to me.  A month ago Nassib was a 3rd rounder and there seemed to be a consenses on that.  Its is strange all the movement, but I guess that is why you need a GM that can stay focused on the goal, bringing in the best player on that board to be your QB, not the hottest or most touted.

#4 Cheddar's Dad

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Posted 11 April 2013 - 12:27 PM

View PostBangarang, on 11 April 2013 - 11:49 AM, said:

You do understand that the rankings of people in the media are not the same as the rankings of actual NFL scouts and GMs right?

Maybe teams had Nassib and Manuel rated high the entire time but people you watch on TV and read online are just now getting with the program?

Just a guess but you sound like one of those pick a QB at 8 guys???

View PostMango, on 11 April 2013 - 11:42 AM, said:

How guys play not their measurements per se (fixed it)


#5 Brainiac21

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Posted 11 April 2013 - 12:38 PM

totally not true on Nassib... some people have had him high since December.  in fact, there was a reason a lot of people were watching that December game with interest since it had 2 of the top QB's.  sure, there were some that said he was a 3rd rounder, and there STILL ARE.  Mayock doesn't have him that high, tied with Landry i think.  while russ lande had him as the #1 player in draft for last 3 months.  i don't think they are rising and falling so much as there are a myriad of opinions of these guys.

guys don't rise and fall that much.. there is just more information leaking out.  some true and some false.  there is something to combine/pro days though.  speed/length/strength in a controlled evironment rather than detached game fils will mean a little something.  maybe not 2 rounds, but something.

#6 OldTimer1960

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Posted 11 April 2013 - 12:42 PM

View PostBangarang, on 11 April 2013 - 11:49 AM, said:

You do understand that the rankings of people in the media are not the same as the rankings of actual NFL scouts and GMs right?

Maybe teams had Nassib and Manuel rated high the entire time but people you watch on TV and read online are just now getting with the program?

+1

#7 Mango

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Posted 11 April 2013 - 12:45 PM

View PostBrainiac21, on 11 April 2013 - 12:38 PM, said:

totally not true on Nassib... some people have had him high since December.  in fact, there was a reason a lot of people were watching that December game with interest since it had 2 of the top QB's.  sure, there were some that said he was a 3rd rounder, and there STILL ARE.  Mayock doesn't have him that high, tied with Landry i think.  while russ lande had him as the #1 player in draft for last 3 months.  i don't think they are rising and falling so much as there are a myriad of opinions of these guys.

guys don't rise and fall that much.. there is just more information leaking out.  some true and some false.  there is something to combine/pro days though.  speed/length/strength in a controlled evironment rather than detached game fils will mean a little something.  maybe not 2 rounds, but something.

i think that is exactly the issue.  what information? you have years worth of game tape on a ton of these guys, what else do you need to know? i understand the ability to read defenses and understand offense, and those are important, but a lot of that will come across on film as well as ability in game day situations

#8 BillnutinHouston

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Posted 11 April 2013 - 12:46 PM

View PostBangarang, on 11 April 2013 - 11:49 AM, said:

You do understand that the rankings of people in the media are not the same as the rankings of actual NFL scouts and GMs right?

Maybe teams had Nassib and Manuel rated high the entire time but people you watch on TV and read online are just now getting with the program?

This^

Any players making "leaps" are cases where the media is catching up with the opinions of pro scouts, NOT the other way around.  Or smokescreens.

#9 tennesseeboy

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Posted 11 April 2013 - 12:48 PM

Not much to  offer at qb in this year's draft.  There are those on this board who would like us to take a 2d or third round choice at number 8 and "wish" him into a franchise qb.  I don't see that happening.  I think we might go qb at round 2 or even round 3 and go with the guy we just traded for for at least this year.

#10 JPS

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Posted 11 April 2013 - 12:51 PM

The NFL Network had a couple former GMs (Casserly and Tannenbaum IIRC) discuss the concept of a prospect "flying up the draft boards". They said it just doesn't happen and that's just TV talk.

I believe that the concept of a prospect moving up or down is simply a function of the media learning a little bit more about what actual draft boards look like as we get closer to the draft.  If Nassib was 40 on the Bills draft board in January, I would expect him to be within 5 or that number at the draft...for the Bills anyways.

#11 Magox

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Posted 11 April 2013 - 12:52 PM

View PostBangarang, on 11 April 2013 - 11:49 AM, said:

You do understand that the rankings of people in the media are not the same as the rankings of actual NFL scouts and GMs right?

Exactly!

#12 Brainiac21

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Posted 11 April 2013 - 12:54 PM

View PostMango, on 11 April 2013 - 12:45 PM, said:

i think that is exactly the issue.  what information? you have years worth of game tape on a ton of these guys, what else do you need to know? i understand the ability to read defenses and understand offense, and those are important, but a lot of that will come across on film as well as ability in game day situations

from actual scout/GM types... all these ratings start out based like 90% by the Mayock/Kiper media types, but as time goes on more real team sources/scouts/GM's have their opinion heard.  how many times you hear a guy like mayock say some scouts told him something and he "went back to look at more tape on the guy" etc.  i the rankings change  for lots of reasons:  senior bowl, pro days, but a lot because it becomes a hybrid of their own original assessments and those they hear about from others.  i think the updated rankings you see these days are when you have about as much as you can get from true "War room" sources, whereas 3 or 4 months ago it was pretty much just the Mel Kiper's of the world's opinion.  just the thing you have to remember is that what yer seeing doesn't reflect a significant change of opinion of those that actually make the decisions.. just those who guess/report it.

#13 Captain Hindsight

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Posted 11 April 2013 - 12:57 PM

Jimmy Clausen could still go number one overall

#14 Bills4

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Posted 11 April 2013 - 01:36 PM

View PostBangarang, on 11 April 2013 - 11:49 AM, said:

You do understand that the rankings of people in the media are not the same as the rankings of actual NFL scouts and GMs right?

Maybe teams had Nassib and Manuel rated high the entire time but people you watch on TV and read online are just now getting with the program?

Good point.  The basic economic principle of supply and demand also comes into play here.  The demand for franchise qbs is at an all time high in todays pass first, (pro qb, pro receiver new rules on contact).  The majority of the NFL's franchise qbs have not been taken in the first round.  If you took a look at what round the Superbowl winning QB has been drafted in over the last 15 years, I would put money on the majority of those winners not being drafted in 1st round.  Im just too lazy to look it up.

Who cares what round you get the guy in as long as you get him.  If any team had drafted Russel Wilson with their first round pick last year, the media and analysts would have called them crazy for doing so.

So if a GM really believes that a guy like Nassib or Manuel are the franchise' future why not draft him at 8 if you feel like he wont be there by the time your second round pick comes around?  And with the new rookie contract rules, why not take chances on QB's early?  Its not a science.  A lot of luck is involved as well as where a rookie lands.  Do you think big ben would be big ben if he landed in Buffalo?  The Bills destroyed the careers of JP Lossman and Trent Edwards.

Big Ben came into a situation where a team had a solid run game and great defense.  Id argue that the majority of rookie qbs who succeed in the NFL were drafted by a team with a solid run game and good defense.  Again, just too lazy to look it up.

#15 Dibs

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Posted 11 April 2013 - 01:44 PM

View PostBills4, on 11 April 2013 - 01:36 PM, said:

Good point.  The basic economic principle of supply and demand also comes into play here.  The demand for franchise qbs is at an all time high in todays pass first, (pro qb, pro receiver new rules on contact).  The majority of the NFL's franchise qbs have not been taken in the first round.  If you took a look at what round the Superbowl winning QB has been drafted in over the last 15 years, I would put money on the majority of those winners not being drafted in 1st round.  Im just too lazy to look it up.

Who cares what round you get the guy in as long as you get him.  If any team had drafted Russel Wilson with their first round pick last year, the media and analysts would have called them crazy for doing so.

So if a GM really believes that a guy like Nassib or Manuel are the franchise' future why not draft him at 8 if you feel like he wont be there by the time your second round pick comes around?  And with the new rookie contract rules, why not take chances on QB's early?  Its not a science.  A lot of luck is involved as well as where a rookie lands.  Do you think big ben would be big ben if he landed in Buffalo?  The Bills destroyed the careers of JP Lossman and Trent Edwards.

Big Ben came into a situation where a team had a solid run game and great defense.  Id argue that the majority of rookie qbs who succeed in the NFL were drafted by a team with a solid run game and good defense.  Again, just too lazy to look it up.

How much money?  :devil:

You are so far wrong I don't know where to start.

I'm not too lazy to look things up.....try these threads for some information....
http://forums.twobil...b/#entry2712778
http://forums.twobil...t/#entry2743099

Edited by Dibs, 11 April 2013 - 01:46 PM.


#16 C.Biscuit97

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Posted 11 April 2013 - 01:53 PM

This is called the Kiper effect.  How players rise and fall without playing games in months is hilarious.  Kiper basically got people interested in the draft and it has gone completely overboard.  If anything, we have too much information.  There are good posters here who could probably do as well as the draft "experts" because we get everything they do.  It's a guessing game in many ways.

#17 Maddog69

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Posted 11 April 2013 - 02:14 PM

View PostBills4, on 11 April 2013 - 01:36 PM, said:

Good point.  The basic economic principle of supply and demand also comes into play here.  The demand for franchise qbs is at an all time high in todays pass first, (pro qb, pro receiver new rules on contact).  The majority of the NFL's franchise qbs have not been taken in the first round.  If you took a look at what round the Superbowl winning QB has been drafted in over the last 15 years, I would put money on the majority of those winners not being drafted in 1st round.  Im just too lazy to look it up.

.


Of the last 15 QBs to win a superbowl, 8 were 1st Rounders.   7 were not (although two were very high second rounders Brees/Favre)
If you just look at the last 15 Superbowls, 9 were won by QBs drafted in Rd1

Tom Brady really screws up the numbers.   Unless you find the next Tom Brady,  your chances of winning a superbowl are far greater with a 1st rd QB

Super Bowl 30. Troy Aikman (Larry Brown), Rd1
Super Bowl 31. Brett Favre (Desmond Howard), Rd 2

Super Bowl 32 John Elway (Terrell Davis), Rd1
Super Bowl 33. John Elway (MVP), Rd1
Super Bowl 34. Kurt Warner (MVP), UDFA
Super Bowl 35. Trent Dilfer (Ray Lewis), Rd1
Super Bowl 36. Tom Brady (MVP), Rd 6
Super Bowl 37. Brad Johnson (Dexter Jackson), Rd9
Super Bowl 38. Tom Brady (MVP), 3 Rd6
Super Bowl 39. Tom Brady (Deion Branch), RD6
Super Bowl 40. Ben Roethlisberger (Hines Ward), Rd1
Super Bowl 41. Peyton Manning (MVP), Rd1
Super Bowl 42. Eli Manning (MVP), Rd1
Super Bowl 43: Ben Roethlisberger Rd1
Super Bowl 44: Drew Brees (MVP), Rd 2
Super Bowl 45: Aaron Rogers (MVP), Rd1
Super Bowl 46: Eli Manning (MVP), Rd1
Super Bowl 47: Joe Flaco Rd1

#18 Kellyto83TD

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Posted 11 April 2013 - 02:19 PM

Here is the deal, the Media Experts aren't that damn good or teams would be paying them multi millions to do their scouting.

These Experts have X player rated a so and so rounder until they get the buzz from a few REAL Experts (aka team scouting departments) and then go back and actually watch 2 years worth of film and say 'Oh ****... I should have rated this guy higher' then all of a sudden they rise on their boards.

Kiper, McShay, Mayock, are all full of crap. When a guy like Charlie casserly who built a superbowl team in Washington and on his way out in his last draft at Houston drafts 3 probowlers says 'I wouldn't draft Geno smith high' then ok I listen somewhat to that guy.

#19 Dibs

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Posted 11 April 2013 - 02:20 PM

View PostMaddog69, on 11 April 2013 - 02:14 PM, said:


Super Bowl 44: Drew Brees (MVP), Rd 2


Technically Brees is Rd 2......but as the 32nd player picked, he is the equivalent of a modern day 1st round player.

#20 KeisterHollow

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Posted 11 April 2013 - 02:49 PM

In the end, all the mock drafts amount to nothing but fantasy.  In fact, teams have a real motivation to perpetuate false ratings, so that only adds to the circus.  We'll see come draft day just where teams value players.  Along the lines of your initial complaint - about the wide variance of ratings between the end of the season and the draft - I'd like to add another effect that I find misleading, which is the extreme rise and fall of certain players - mostly fall - based on one sub-par season.  Look at Barkley, for instance.  Had he come out last year he would have been a top 5 pick, probably, or at least top 10.  That would have been based on his body of work to that point.  Now, after he lost a valuable piece in his LT, and had a tough year with sanctions, he still put up very respectable numbers.  Barkley is THE SAME QB that he was in 2011, yet now he's rated by many to be a 2nd round pick.  It just baffles me - because I believe most NFL teams have him as the highest rated QB.  Wilson of Arkansas also is getting a bad rep.  I think the draft will prove much more kind to those two than is now being projected.