Jump to content


Don't trade back, take HIM at 8


  • Please log in to reply
44 replies to this topic

#1 Derek in Va

Derek in Va

    Learn by Doing

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 1,448 posts

Posted 20 April 2013 - 05:33 PM

Disclaimer: This has nothing to do with who I want the Bills to take or who I think they will take.

With the way the teams selecting order changes from round to round, where teams like the Jets pick behind us in round 1 and ahead of us in round 2, I believe there will definitely be a chess match being played. Also, the transparency of our needs (thanks buddy) doesn't help.

Let's say we want a qb not named Smith or Barkley. The number 8 pick rolls around and most people's wet dream comes true and we get an offer to trade back. Yes, we get more picks. However, now taking that qb isn't as far fetched and other teams eyeing that player now know exactly where to trade to grab him. Imagine trading out of 8 to 23 and planning to take a qb. Then the jets jump in front of us at 22 and steal him. Now what?

I genuinely believe that we need to take whoever that we are interested at 8. Yes, it will be a reach. But I don't think we have to worry about someone jumping ahead of us to grab them. And if we stay put and wait until our second pick, it's just too much of a gamble with way too many variables to think we could get them. Look at where Ponder went a few years back as an example.

Now, if there really isn't a guy we are zoned in on, then it's a moot point. There is a part of me that thinks they have broken down a top 3 at the need positions and will take whoever is available when they pick and be equally happy doing it, but what do I know.

But again, if they don't, I think trading back can only hurt us.

*side note, does anyone think that teams will let other teams know who is trying to trade with them? For example, would the Packers tell the jets "hey, the bills just tried to trade for our pick. If you want your guy, yo no better jump in there"

Second disclaimer: I'm using the jets as an example and don't claim to have any idea what their plans are

Edited by Derek in Va, 21 April 2013 - 02:46 AM.


#2 FluffHead

FluffHead

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,190 posts

Posted 20 April 2013 - 06:11 PM

I agree and I think they are going to pull the trigger on their highest rated QB at 8.  I believe it will be either Nassib or Barkley even if Geno is on the board.

#3 uncle flap

uncle flap

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,561 posts

Posted 20 April 2013 - 06:54 PM

View PostFluffHead, on 20 April 2013 - 06:11 PM, said:

I agree and I think they are going to pull the trigger on their highest rated QB at 8.  I believe it will be either Nassib or Barkley even if Geno is on the board.

I also agree except I have a gut feeling it'll be Manuel. I've liked him the best of the prospects for a while, and I don't think he'll be there in the second as I had initially been hoping.

Like the OP, I'm scared the Jets or someone else would take him (or whoever the Bills like) before the Bills get another chance, be it in the second or in a trade back scenario.

#4 ganesh

ganesh

    You can do things on a football field that are severely illegal

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 8,796 posts

Posted 21 April 2013 - 05:15 AM

Agree.  The Bills do not have many picks to fill all the holes and also would not want to give up next years 1st Rd.  They will pick their QB in Rd 1 and most likely it will be Barkley.

#5 BuffaloBill

BuffaloBill

    Jim K is tough but so is being a Bills fan

  • Global Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 13,022 posts

Posted 21 April 2013 - 09:11 AM

View Postganesh, on 21 April 2013 - 05:15 AM, said:

Agree.  The Bills do not have many picks to fill all the holes and also would not want to give up next years 1st Rd.  They will pick their QB in Rd 1 and most likely it will be Barkley.

Barkley does not ave the arm strength needed for Buffalo weather.  I am not sure any of this draft class really has that plus the accuracy needed in the NFL.  If they take a QB at 8 likely to grab Nassib.  However, my guess is that they don't take a QB in this spot.

#6 Kirby Jackson

Kirby Jackson

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,334 posts

Posted 21 April 2013 - 09:19 AM

I disagree. I don't think that you should ever reach on a player (especially a QB). That is the 1 position that you want as little risk as possible.  Being wrong at QB is much worse than being wrong with someone like Maybin. What do 2 of the top 3 teams drafting have in common? They were both wrong with top 10 QBs in the last handful of years. The Jags and Raiders are in terrible positions because of it. I would rather trade back or wait until later. I think that next years class is safer. If you are wrong with a 2nd rounder you would not shy away from a 1st the next year (Carolina just did it). If you are wrong at 8 the guy is going to get at least 2 seasons and we miss out on next years group.

Edited by Kirby Jackson, 21 April 2013 - 09:41 AM.


#7 CardinalScotts

CardinalScotts

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,113 posts

Posted 21 April 2013 - 09:31 AM

I don't think they like Geno even a little I think its Nassib or Barkley, if they could slide back to 14-19 and add a pick I would do it

#8 Rocky Landing

Rocky Landing

    RFA

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 617 posts

Posted 21 April 2013 - 09:42 AM

I don't think they are going to go for a QB in the first round. But, if they are planning on it, I think they could safely trade down to the bottom of the first round and still get whoever is available at #8.

#9 1billsfan

1billsfan

    All Pro

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 8,361 posts

Posted 21 April 2013 - 10:02 AM

View PostCardinalScotts, on 21 April 2013 - 09:31 AM, said:

I don't think they like Geno even a little I think its Nassib or Barkley, if they could slide back to 14-19 and add a pick I would do it

I think fans here who believe that the Bills want either Nassib or Barkley are mistaken. The NFL is drastically moving towards mobile, athletic QBs. Nassib and Barkley are both great guys, smart guys and their skills were fine at the college level. But their games just do not translate to the next level. At least, not at the successful franchise QB or even long term starter level. I think the Bills want either Smith, Manuel or Scott. They are closest to the Wilson, RGIII, Kaepernick style of play that will dominate the league going forward.

#10 Hotpockets28

Hotpockets28

    Practice Squad

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 231 posts

Posted 21 April 2013 - 10:17 AM

Draft barkley!!!!!!! Perfect fit for the bills ""new"" west/gulf coast up tempo offense..  Let the era of BARKCHIZE begin!!!!!!.....lets go bills gawd dunnit

#11 uncle flap

uncle flap

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,561 posts

Posted 21 April 2013 - 10:30 AM

View Post1billsfan, on 21 April 2013 - 10:02 AM, said:

I think fans here who believe that the Bills want either Nassib or Barkley are mistaken. The NFL is drastically moving towards mobile, athletic QBs. Nassib and Barkley are both great guys, smart guys and their skills were fine at the college level. But their games just do not translate to the next level. At least, not at the successful franchise QB or even long term starter level. I think the Bills want either Smith, Manuel or Scott. They are closest to the Wilson, RGIII, Kaepernick style of play that will dominate the league going forward.

I hope so, since I've posted in this thread yesterday, I've changed my mind and think Buddy and Whaley seem sold on Barkley, not so much on Manuel. I totally agree with you though and I like Manuel the best out of the prospects available, maybe even more than Geno whom I doubt will be available.

If you watch the pre-draft luncheon, they have good things to say about Barkley like, "he's been doing it on a big stage for a long time," "knows how to get the ball to his playmakers," "before his injury he was #1 on everyone's board," and on arm strength Whaley basically said, "Joe Montana didn't have a cannon, so what?"

Meanwhile, when asked about Manuel, Buddy says "he's got an arm, but is inconsistent," "Well, I've seen him make NFL throws.... at Florida State," and even went so far as to call the read-option movement a "fad," before backtracking and clarifying that in any case a "QB has to win with his arm, not his legs."

Taken at face value, those statements seem to indicate they don't really like Manuel and looooove Barkley. Keep in mind those aren't *exact* quotes but close enough and don't alter the meaning.  Watch for yourself: http://www.buffalobi...ea-f4dff890bd41 They start talking about Barkley around the 25 minute mark and then Manuel right after.

But could it all be a smokescreen? After Buddy's responses on Manuel, he touches his nose. Is it a subconscious tell? YOU BE THE JUDGE :lol:

Posted Image

Edited by uncle flap, 21 April 2013 - 10:57 AM.


#12 Tsaikotic

Tsaikotic

    RFA

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 1,128 posts

Posted 21 April 2013 - 10:45 AM

View PostKirby Jackson, on 21 April 2013 - 09:19 AM, said:

I disagree. I don't think that you should ever reach on a player (especially a QB). That is the 1 position that you want as little risk as possible.  Being wrong at QB is much worse than being wrong with someone like Maybin. What do 2 of the top 3 teams drafting have in common? They were both wrong with top 10 QBs in the last handful of years. The Jags and Raiders are in terrible positions because of it. I would rather trade back or wait until later. I think that next years class is safer. If you are wrong with a 2nd rounder you would not shy away from a 1st the next year (Carolina just did it). If you are wrong at 8 the guy is going to get at least 2 seasons and we miss out on next years group.

you'll never get a Qb that way...if you keep waiting till the next year because you let your QB of choice pass by to another team, you'll always be looking and never getting...that's exactly what happened last year when Nix watched 2 or 3 QB's go earlier then he anticipated..


View Post1billsfan, on 21 April 2013 - 10:02 AM, said:

I think fans here who believe that the Bills want either Nassib or Barkley are mistaken. The NFL is drastically moving towards mobile, athletic QBs. Nassib and Barkley are both great guys, smart guys and their skills were fine at the college level. But their games just do not translate to the next level. At least, not at the successful franchise QB or even long term starter level. I think the Bills want either Smith, Manuel or Scott. They are closest to the Wilson, RGIII, Kaepernick style of play that will dominate the league going forward.

that style of QB play is not what the team is going for...a lot of teams(IMO) believe this new QB style is a fad...I've heard a couple interviews that say they don't believe this system will be around for to long...kinda like the wildcat...



@ Derek in VA - since you brought up the Jets I'll stay with them here...the Jets today have given D. Revis permission to go to the Bucs and interview and take physicals and such, which most likely means he will be traded...that will most likely give the Jets a second 1st round pick giving them the #9 and #13...going with Jets needs, they should grab best pass-rusher at #9 and then use #13 on CB Rhodes if hes still there to replace Revis...that gives them #40? to get a QB right before Bills pick...that's 3 possible picks to grab a QB b4 Bills if they wait till rd 2...most likely Jets will grab Manuel in rd 2...add in the fact that a lot of ppl are saying that the Jags and maybe Raiders will also go for a QB in rd 2 also...if that happens, that means 3 of the top QB's will be gone b4 Bills pick in rd 2...I just don't see any way they can't use #8 on their QB of choice...they need to get one of the top 3 QB's this year and he doesn't work out then we can still get another next year...I don't see a trade down with the Vikings and getting the #23 and extra picks changing any of that scenario with the Jets...either way both teams will most likely have a Qb by the end of rd 2...only real difference that changes things is which team wants that one QB the most and thinks the other team will steal him first...my opinion anyways.

View Postuncle flap, on 21 April 2013 - 10:30 AM, said:

I hope so, since I've posted in this thread yesterday, I've changed my mind and think Buddy and Whaley seem sold on Barkley, not so much on Manuel. I totally agree with you though and I like Manuel the best out of the prospects available, maybe even more than Geno whom I doubt will be available.

If you watch the pre-draft luncheon, they have good things to say about Barkley like, "he's been doing it on a big stage for a long time," "knows how to get the ball to his playmakers," "before his injury he was #1 on everyone's board," and on arm strength Whaley basically said, "Joe Montana didn't have a cannon, so what?"

Meanwhile, when asked about Manuel, Buddy says "he's got an arm, but is inconsistent," "Well, I've seen him make NFL throws.... at Florida State," and even went so far as to call the read-option movement a "fad," before backtracking and clarifying that in any case a "QB has to win with his arm, not his legs."

Taken at face value, those statements seem to indicate they don't really like Manuel and looooove Barkley. Keep in mind those aren't *exact* quotes but close enough and don't alter the meaning.  Watch for yourself: http://www.buffalobi...ea-f4dff890bd41 They start talking about Barkley around the 25 minute mark and then Manuel right after.

But could it all be a smokescreen? After Buddy's responses on Manuel, he touches his nose. Is it a subconscious tell? YOU BE THE JUDGE :lol:

I agree...watching the tape, you can see the body language of Nix when asked about Barkley and he looks all giddy when he's talking about him...and all " yea whatever" when talking about Manuel

Edited by Tsaikotic, 21 April 2013 - 10:48 AM.


#13 NFLBighits

NFLBighits

    Rookie

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 297 posts

Posted 21 April 2013 - 11:11 AM

We always have next year as the qb crop looks much better so no big deal if we trade down !

#14 Kirby Jackson

Kirby Jackson

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,334 posts

Posted 21 April 2013 - 11:50 AM

View PostTsaikotic, on 21 April 2013 - 10:45 AM, said:



you'll never get a Qb that way...if you keep waiting till the next year because you let your QB of choice pass by to another team, you'll always be looking and never getting...that's exactly what happened last year when Nix watched 2 or 3 QB's go earlier then he anticipated..


If you have to trade ahead of the teams in the early 2nd so be it. You don't take the 50th best talent at 8 at the most important position. At 8 you are stuck with them for multiple seasons even if they are terrible. If you get them later (even in the 2nd) you do not feel as married to them. I do not trust this QB class. I do not feel that we will be missing out on our guy. I think 2-3 of these guys will end up as good starters but I have no idea which ones.  I don't want the next Blaine Gabbert and I think that you may very well end up with him this year. Give me someone in the 2nd that has just as good a chance (and may even be the same guy that you were taking at 8).  If he is not the 1 of the couple that will be good take 1 of the guy's next year that is safer (IMO).

#15 Cheddar's Dad

Cheddar's Dad

    Rookie

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 396 posts

Posted 21 April 2013 - 12:00 PM

View PostKirby Jackson, on 21 April 2013 - 11:50 AM, said:

If you have to trade ahead of the teams in the early 2nd so be it. You don't take the 50th best talent at 8 at the most important position. At 8 you are stuck with them for multiple seasons even if they are terrible. If you get them later (even in the 2nd) you do not feel as married to them. I do not trust this QB class. I do not feel that we will be missing out on our guy. I think 2-3 of these guys will end up as good starters but I have no idea which ones.  I don't want the next Blaine Gabbert and I think that you may very well end up with him this year. Give me someone in the 2nd that has just as good a chance (and may even be the same guy that you were taking at 8).  If he is not the 1 of the couple that will be good take 1 of the guy's next year that is safer (IMO).

You make good points. I too do not trust this class. If Buffalo picks one and he is not ready to start, how many years will Buffalo invest in getting him start ready, years when Buffalo passes on better QBs in subsequest drafts because the one they picked this years does some things good and looks like he can be develped, but then, never does?

#16 San Jose Bills Fan

San Jose Bills Fan

    San Jose Bills Fan

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 20,764 posts

Posted 21 April 2013 - 12:06 PM

Regarding the concept of rookie QBs being "not ready to start."

Most of the guys who are rated at the top are pretty much as ready as they'll ever be. With some you'd like to see a bit more polish but not to the point where you wouldn't ease them in as rookies.

A good organization puts a rookie QB in a position to succeed regardless of how raw they are. There are many examples of this.

In 2004 Big Ben won NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year although he didn't start the season opener. The Steelers devised an offense for him whereby he only had to read half the field.

I would certainly believe that the Bills would draft a QB that they envisioned starting if not on opening day, very soon afterwards.

As such I would hope that they would be able to evaluate the rookie QB and if necessary draft another one next year if they see fit to replace him or have him compete with a different prospect.

#17 FluffHead

FluffHead

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,190 posts

Posted 21 April 2013 - 12:09 PM

Take your shot on a QB this year. If he sucks, you're in position to take another one next year. You're nothing in this league without a QB. Keep taking em until you find one

#18 Kirby Jackson

Kirby Jackson

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,334 posts

Posted 21 April 2013 - 12:12 PM

View PostFluffHead, on 21 April 2013 - 12:09 PM, said:

Take your shot on a QB this year. If he sucks, you're in position to take another one next year. You're nothing in this league without a QB. Keep taking em until you find one

The problem is that NO team is using back-to-back 1sts on a QB (especially a top 10). May seem necessary but the reality is it doesn't happen. Jax is still holding out hope for Gabbert in year 3 and he is terrible. If you take a guy at 8 it is a MINIMUM 2 year trial. That's just reality whether we like it or not.

#19 fansince88

fansince88

    He must increase but I must decrease

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 758 posts

Posted 21 April 2013 - 12:15 PM

The pay scale of the pba doesnt make sense to wait unless you trade to round 2. Just take the player you covet at the position you need the most where fate has dealt you. Just draft
Nassib at #8 already!

#20 FluffHead

FluffHead

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,190 posts

Posted 21 April 2013 - 12:15 PM

View PostKirby Jackson, on 21 April 2013 - 12:12 PM, said:



The problem is that NO team is using back-to-back 1sts on a QB (especially a top 10). May seem necessary but the reality is it doesn't happen. Jax is still holding out hope for Gabbert in year 3 and he is terrible. If you take a guy at 8 it is a MINIMUM 2 year trial. That's just reality whether we like it or not.

I don't understand why it has to be that way with the new rookie wage scale.

It didn't take me two years to realize Blaine gabbert sucks. If the Qb the bills select this year pulls a Blame Gabbert I wouldn't hesitate to pick another one in rd 1 next season