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Today's "What-If" Mock is Bills-49ers Trade


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#1 Astrobot

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Posted 21 April 2013 - 07:41 AM

http://www.drafttek....raft-Round1.asp
"The Trade:
1) The San Francisco 49ers trade selections #31, #34 and #74 to the Buffalo Bills for pick #8 (Per Drafttek's Interactive Trade Value Chart). The Niners are looking to fill a hole at Safety with the selection of Texas' Kenny Vaccaro. The Bills have multiple needs (QB, WR, LB) and not enough draft picks to fill them. It's quite possible that Buddy Nix can get the same QB at pick #31 that they can get at pick #8.

Analysis:
Let's be clear, the Niners do not make this trade unless they believe the guy they can get will be a difference maker who can take their team to a Super Bowl Championship. With 13 picks in the draft, the team is in position to make more than one trade-up to find impact players. In this scenario, the Niners take Texas Safety Kenny Vaccaro with the Bills #8 pick in order to find a high-level replacement for Dashon Goldson, and also Donte Whitner who is a Free Agent after this season. However Tavon Austin or Dee Milliner (if available) could also be potential targets.
The Bills would be happy to do this deal, particularly if West Virginia QB Geno Smith is off the board. Many mocks have Buffalo selecting Tyler Wilson or Ryan Nassib with the #8, but it's a strong likelihood that one or both will be available at #31. Looking at WRs, none of the prospects available in the 2013 draft fall into the "total package" category of Calvin Johnson, AJ Green or Justin Blackmon. As such the 2013 top WR talents ((Patterson, Allen, Austin, Hunter) are generally thought of a back-half round 1 candidates. The Bills could potentially land one of these four with the #34 pick, or just sit back and take the best available player among the teams many needs.
This What-If simulation is interesting in that it provides an idea of how the draft may play out for the Niners and Bills, the 2 teams involved in the trade. But also how this trade affects other teams who must now resort to plan B. And it is interesting to see how a two team trade permutates down into the later rounds of the draft."

I would do this trade, and SF fans like it too. Bills get Wilson, Hunter, and Okafor for their 8. You can substitute Nassib-Barkley-Manuel for Wilson if you prefer. They're all there at #31 AND #34.

The Bills pick Ryan Swope WR  and Gholston DE in RD3. I personally would take Swope and Travis Frederick OC/OG in this scenario. He'll be a good one. My other thought would be Swope/Blidi Wreh-Wilson CB to offer McKelvin some competition.

#2 Beerball

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Posted 21 April 2013 - 07:56 AM

Unless the Bills packaged a couple of those new picks to move back up I'd vote no. I'll let someone do the math, but trade a couple of those 30's to move into the 18-24 range.

#3 Astrobot

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Posted 21 April 2013 - 08:13 AM

Bills get Wilson, Hunter, and Okafor, then Swope and Wreh Wilson. What's not to like? Too many good players?

#4 Kevin

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Posted 21 April 2013 - 08:19 AM

Where do they come up with this crap? Seriously. How many times have any of these "scenarios" actually happen?

#5 Astrobot

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Posted 21 April 2013 - 08:23 AM

Lighten up, Kevin. This is done for fun. It's called entertainment.

#6 Beerball

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Posted 21 April 2013 - 08:24 AM

View PostAstrobot, on 21 April 2013 - 08:13 AM, said:

Bills get Wilson, Hunter, and Okafor, then Swope and Wreh Wilson. What's not to like? Too many good players?
If you are happy with Wilson then it works. Personally I haven't seen enough of him to have a strong opinion, but if Nassib is a reach at 8 then Wilson is a major reach at 31.

#7 Astrobot

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Posted 21 April 2013 - 08:29 AM

You can substitute Nassib-Barkley-Manuel for Wilson if you prefer. I prefer Barkley for strictly a WCO (best play-action fake of the lot), but Nassib and Manuel are more versatile.

#8 Beerball

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Posted 21 April 2013 - 08:34 AM

View PostAstrobot, on 21 April 2013 - 08:29 AM, said:

You can substitute Nassib-Barkley-Manuel for Wilson if you prefer. I prefer Barkley for strictly a WCO (best play-action fake of the lot), but Nassib and Manuel are more versatile.
What are the chances that Nassib-Barkley-Manuel will be there at 31? Isn't it likely that 2 of the 3 will be gone by then, perhaps all 3? Are you willing to roll the dice and perhaps leave yourself with your 3rd or 4th QB?

#9 KRT88

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Posted 21 April 2013 - 08:42 AM

If SF offered those three picks for the #8 selection then how could the Bills say no?  They add 50% in draft picks and the team has tons of holes.  The current 6 picks isn't gonna get it done and of the 9 we'd have we'd have, 4 of those picks would be in the top 74.  And we'd still be in a prime position to draft a QB.

View PostBeerball, on 21 April 2013 - 08:34 AM, said:

What are the chances that Nassib-Barkley-Manuel will be there at 31? Isn't it likely that 2 of the 3 will be gone by then, perhaps all 3? Are you willing to roll the dice and perhaps leave yourself with your 3rd or 4th QB?

Most projections have 1 QB going in the first?  But all three are gone?  Then Kolb is the starter and you pick Wilson in the 3rd.

#10 JohnC

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Posted 21 April 2013 - 08:44 AM

View PostAstrobot, on 21 April 2013 - 07:41 AM, said:

http://www.drafttek....raft-Round1.asp

I would do this trade, and SF fans like it too. Bills get Wilson, Hunter, and Okafor for their 8. You can substitute Nassib-Barkley-Manuel for Wilson if you prefer. They're all there at #31 AND #34.

The Bills pick Ryan Swope WR  and Gholston DE in RD3. I personally would take Swope and Travis Frederick OC/OG in this scenario. He'll be a good one. My other thought would be Swope/Blidi Wreh-Wilson CB to offer McKelvin some competition.

Ask yourself is this how Nix operated in any of his prior drafts? Maneuvering around and making deals is not something he is comfortable doing. Nix has often stated that if you like a player then take that player. A simplistic approach for a simplistic person.

Everyone knows that the Bills will be targeting a qb in the first or second round. If the Bills drop to the bottom of the first and a team in the second round has a desire to take a qb that we might also covet then it will be less costly for them to maneuver ahead of us to take that particular prospect.

Buddy has admitted that in the past he targeted qbs and has lost out because he waited too long. If he truly believes that there are maybe two or three franchise qbs in this draft I don't think he is going to mess around, especially if there is one qb he is most enamorated with.

#11 BuffalothruMyVeins

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Posted 21 April 2013 - 08:45 AM

I hate the idea of trading back up after trading down, we would have gotten a lot of value from this trade, I don't like the idea of lessening that immediately. Especially with the projected players we would get from this trade.

#12 swnybillsfan

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Posted 21 April 2013 - 08:46 AM

View PostAstrobot, on 21 April 2013 - 08:13 AM, said:

Bills get Wilson, Hunter, and Okafor, then Swope and Wreh Wilson. What's not to like? Too many good players?
while always in favor of grabbing more picks, especially picks that turn into quality players, the one factor that makes this worth while or garbage is whether or not the bills get their guy at qb. if the guy they would readily take at 8 were there at 31 then not just yes but hell yes! and if the qb that they wanted is gone, and maybe your number 2 as well, then i don't think the trade is worth it.

#13 UpperDeck

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Posted 21 April 2013 - 08:50 AM

View Postswnybillsfan, on 21 April 2013 - 08:46 AM, said:

while always in favor of grabbing more picks, especially picks that turn into quality players, the one factor that makes this worth while or garbage is whether or not the bills get their guy at qb. if the guy they would readily take at 8 were there at 31 then not just yes but hell yes! and if the qb that they wanted is gone, and maybe your number 2 as well, then i don't think the trade is worth it.
+1

#14 Beerball

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Posted 21 April 2013 - 08:52 AM

View PostKRT88, on 21 April 2013 - 08:42 AM, said:

If SF offered those three picks for the #8 selection then how could the Bills say no?  They add 50% in draft picks and the team has tons of holes.  The current 6 picks isn't gonna get it done and of the 9 we'd have we'd have, 4 of those picks would be in the top 74.  And we'd still be in a prime position to draft a QB.



Most projections have 1 QB going in the first?  But all three are gone?  Then Kolb is the starter and you pick Wilson in the 3rd.
I would bet a hypothetical $1,000,000 that at least 3 are selected in the first. Wilson won't be there in the 3rd.

#15 Kevin

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Posted 21 April 2013 - 09:01 AM

View PostAstrobot, on 21 April 2013 - 08:23 AM, said:

Lighten up, Kevin. This is done for fun. It's called entertainment.

Don't get me wrong. I'm in no way shape or form upset, it's just these scenarios are WILD!

#16 swnybillsfan

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Posted 21 April 2013 - 09:07 AM

View PostBeerball, on 21 April 2013 - 08:52 AM, said:

I would bet a hypothetical $1,000,000 that at least 3 are selected in the first. Wilson won't be there in the 3rd.
i'm a bit short on hypothetical cash right now, but to your point, i have been thinking that a qb run can happen at any time and it can last as long as teams keep thinking they gotta get one now or lose out. and if geno is taken before buffalo, then the bills take therir guy (whoever that may be) then that could absolutely send some of these other teams off on a mad qb scramble to get 'em while they're hot!

#17 UpperDeck

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Posted 21 April 2013 - 10:14 AM

And if we pass on Nassib at 8 other teams might start to wonder about him, possibly causing him to fall to 41.

#18 Rubes

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Posted 21 April 2013 - 10:24 AM

I would just remember that if we trade down all the way to #31, then it's crystal clear to everyone that we'll be taking a QB at that spot. There are plenty of teams ahead of us in Round 2 that will know this and may just as readily jump ahead of us.

#19 KOKBILLS

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Posted 21 April 2013 - 10:41 AM

View PostAstrobot, on 21 April 2013 - 07:41 AM, said:

http://www.drafttek....raft-Round1.asp
"The Trade:
1) The San Francisco 49ers trade selections #31, #34 and #74 to the Buffalo Bills for pick #8 (Per Drafttek's Interactive Trade Value Chart). The Niners are looking to fill a hole at Safety with the selection of Texas' Kenny Vaccaro. The Bills have multiple needs (QB, WR, LB) and not enough draft picks to fill them. It's quite possible that Buddy Nix can get the same QB at pick #31 that they can get at pick #8.

Analysis:
Let's be clear, the Niners do not make this trade unless they believe the guy they can get will be a difference maker who can take their team to a Super Bowl Championship. With 13 picks in the draft, the team is in position to make more than one trade-up to find impact players. In this scenario, the Niners take Texas Safety Kenny Vaccaro with the Bills #8 pick in order to find a high-level replacement for Dashon Goldson, and also Donte Whitner who is a Free Agent after this season. However Tavon Austin or Dee Milliner (if available) could also be potential targets.
The Bills would be happy to do this deal, particularly if West Virginia QB Geno Smith is off the board. Many mocks have Buffalo selecting Tyler Wilson or Ryan Nassib with the #8, but it's a strong likelihood that one or both will be available at #31. Looking at WRs, none of the prospects available in the 2013 draft fall into the "total package" category of Calvin Johnson, AJ Green or Justin Blackmon. As such the 2013 top WR talents ((Patterson, Allen, Austin, Hunter) are generally thought of a back-half round 1 candidates. The Bills could potentially land one of these four with the #34 pick, or just sit back and take the best available player among the teams many needs.
This What-If simulation is interesting in that it provides an idea of how the draft may play out for the Niners and Bills, the 2 teams involved in the trade. But also how this trade affects other teams who must now resort to plan B. And it is interesting to see how a two team trade permutates down into the later rounds of the draft."

I would do this trade, and SF fans like it too. Bills get Wilson, Hunter, and Okafor for their 8. You can substitute Nassib-Barkley-Manuel for Wilson if you prefer. They're all there at #31 AND #34.

The Bills pick Ryan Swope WR  and Gholston DE in RD3. I personally would take Swope and Travis Frederick OC/OG in this scenario. He'll be a good one. My other thought would be Swope/Blidi Wreh-Wilson CB to offer McKelvin some competition.

I know value-chart-wise this is close...But it's just not enough to trade down that far...I would then ask the Niners to include a 2014 pick...Maybe a 2nd Rounder to make a trade like this happen...

Like I've said in previous thread the risk of trading down, especially this far, comes down to two main factors...Does Geno (or any other QB's for that matter) go from 1-7, and how many QB's do the Bills have with similar 1st Round Grades on their board?...If a QB (likely Geno) goes from 1-7, the risk is immediately too high IMHO...But if not, and you have say...Smith, Nassib, Manuel, and Barkley all graded about the same in the later 1st-early 2nd area, then it's worth serious consideration...

Still..I want more to trade down that far...If you're the team coming up 23 spots in the Draft you have to give more, not less, than the value chart...Usually that's done with a high pick from the next Draft...That's what I would want along with the picks you included to get a deal like this done... B-)

#20 The Cincinnati Kid

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Posted 21 April 2013 - 02:01 PM

I would take that deal.  I Would love to pick 31, 34, and 41.  I think we could get three quality starters with those picks.  Otherwise, we only get 2.  3 is better than 2.  Therefore, I like this deal.