Jump to content


The Future Decline of Pro Football


  • Please log in to reply
33 replies to this topic

#1 distortions

distortions

    RFA

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 532 posts

Posted 24 April 2013 - 09:25 AM

Pro football is currently the most popular sport in the US. However, it may have reached its peak of popularity.

Because of the inherent physical dangers of the sport, the NFL has recently changed many of its rules with regard to contact. As a result of these rules (which are subjectively enforced), the quality of the sport is likely to decline in the future. Also, with more information about the risks of playing the sport, less parents will allow their children to play football. This may lead to a smaller population of superior athletes who play the sport in the future.

#2 quinnearlysghost88

quinnearlysghost88

    Rookie

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 337 posts

Posted 24 April 2013 - 09:47 AM

Three points:

The NFL has complete market saturation in the US, so much so that they've taken to promoting the game in other countries. States who currently have teams bend over backwards to keep their team there, even if it means additional taxes levied on the state's inhabitants.

Parents who allow their child to play football know the inherent risks of the game and will still allow their child to play. The talent pool is not going to shrink, especially with the prospect of securing a future college scholarship at a prestigious university. Honestly, what new information was released to give parents pause? That slamming players' heads together causes concussions and lingering effects? That's common sense. Everyone knew that, but no one wanted to acknowledge it.

There are roughly 119 Division I college football teams, that will always be filled with world-class athletes living off scholarships and vying to make it in the NFL. It's an efficient machine of money, big business and politics. It's not going anywhere.

#3 NoSaint

NoSaint

    Hall of Famer

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 20,375 posts

Posted 24 April 2013 - 09:53 AM

on the fence here -

1) the rules have been trending safer for decades and viewership has also skyrocketed. everyone claims the next rule change will be it for them, but as it turns out for every fan lost there are 20 replacing them these days.

2) parents are a wildcard. the game is getting safer, but the perception is that its getting less safe because we are finding out about damage that was getting done all along. i think you could see the talent pool tighten up a little, but it will be more like what you saw with dilution during expansion than the well suddenly going dry - ie you know its there, but you really cant see huge effects on play because everyones still on equal footing.

#4 Kellyto83TD

Kellyto83TD

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,552 posts

Posted 24 April 2013 - 10:02 AM

They have over saturated the market and many non hard core fans are getting tired of it.

Hard core fans are sick of the 'pussification' of the sport across the board and are going to go back to watching College ball more (I am one of them)

Parents are now wising up to buttclown coaches in Pee Wee, JR high and HS playing tough guy and bullying kids into playing injured (concussions are injuries, not playing hurt). I know of several that have pulled their kids with the new awareness to concussions and put them in other sports.

I agree in the next few years you are going to see the sport and its popularity decline quite a bit.

#5 mrags

mrags

    All Pro

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,554 posts

Posted 24 April 2013 - 10:04 AM

I disagree with that last part Quinn. I don't know if or how quick but I suspect the pussification of the game will effect it's popularity. The downfall of certain sports has happened in our lifetimes. Hockey multiple times, Boxing (almost completely disappeared), Baseball was hurt for quite a while until steroids and the home run wars brought it out if the basement.

It's inly a matter of time before football suffers similar fate. With extremely dumb "athletes" making more in a year than most will make in a lifetime. If the economy gets worse and worse, people will start to tune them out rather quickly. With the babyish rules now days, people are already tuning the NFL out. Hell, I used to make sure I was off work and in the couch from noon until 11pm watching every single second if every game possible. But recently, I can barely stand watching even Monday Night Football. The league talks about and promotes equality among all teams. Giving every team a fair chance. But that's not true. The fact is that as time goes on, the same teams that have a history of winning continue to win. You Packers, Steelers, Patriots, Cowboys, Redskins, Giants. A few other teams in that conversation and then every couple years there's a new young hot team but then the old hot team falls out. But it's the same big money, big market teams that run this league. Things are not changing and people are getting fed up with it unless you happen to be a fan of one of those few teams. The rest of the league and their fans despise those big market, constant teams. To be honest, the rivalries might be the biggest thing keeping this sport at the too right now.



#6 Chandler#81

Chandler#81

    Veteran

  • Global Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,280 posts

Posted 24 April 2013 - 10:05 AM

The game has been changing for health and safety reasons from its inception. President Teddy Roosevelt demanded they make it safer 100 years ago. Parents didn't want their kids playing then either. The League has been outlawing previously acceptable hits throughout its exisistence.

Nothing has changed. The sport and the League's status is at an all-time high and they're doing what's necessary to keep it that way.




#7 Kellyto83TD

Kellyto83TD

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,552 posts

Posted 24 April 2013 - 10:07 AM

View PostChandler#81, on 24 April 2013 - 10:05 AM, said:

The game has been changing for health and safety reasons from its inception. President Teddy Roosevelt demanded they make it safer 100 years ago. Parents didn't want their kids playing then either. The League has been outlawing previously acceptable hits throughout its exisistence.

Nothing has changed. The sport and the League's status is at an all-time high and they're doing what's necessary to keep it that way.

Disagree. it is changing moreso than ever and more parents are pulling / not letting their kids play. This media thing that the NFL uses to hype its game is hurting it as well. Parents and people are getting more informed.

#8 jeremy2020

jeremy2020

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,210 posts

Posted 24 April 2013 - 10:11 AM

View PostKellyto83TD, on 24 April 2013 - 10:07 AM, said:

Disagree. it is changing moreso than ever and more parents are pulling / not letting their kids play. This media thing that the NFL uses to hype its game is hurting it as well. Parents and people are getting more informed.

Are there numbers to back this up?

#9 NoSaint

NoSaint

    Hall of Famer

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 20,375 posts

Posted 24 April 2013 - 10:13 AM

View PostKellyto83TD, on 24 April 2013 - 10:07 AM, said:



Disagree. it is changing moreso than ever and more parents are pulling / not letting their kids play. This media thing that the NFL uses to hype its game is hurting it as well. Parents and people are getting more informed.

the parent angle ill generally agree - like i said upthread theres a perception that its less safe, despite being more safe due to media and the studies coming out. it will have SOME effect. we will see how large.

as for the rules? things like not taking the head off a defenseless receiver is nothing compared to changes it successfully managed. odds are you wont stop watching now just like you didnt stop watching with the horsecollar, the clothesline, or the implementation of the helmet, or a dozen other rule changes. the safety rules of the game has been changing for decades and the mass exodus does not seem to be any closer now - if there were message boards in the 70s, a lot of these posts would have been near verbatim then too.

#10 CodeMonkey

CodeMonkey

    All Pro

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7,776 posts

Posted 24 April 2013 - 10:20 AM

View Postquinnearlysghost88, on 24 April 2013 - 09:47 AM, said:

Three points:

The NFL has complete market saturation in the US, so much so that they've taken to promoting the game in other countries. States who currently have teams bend over backwards to keep their team there, even if it means additional taxes levied on the state's inhabitants.

Parents who allow their child to play football know the inherent risks of the game and will still allow their child to play. The talent pool is not going to shrink, especially with the prospect of securing a future college scholarship at a prestigious university. Honestly, what new information was released to give parents pause? That slamming players' heads together causes concussions and lingering effects? That's common sense. Everyone knew that, but no one wanted to acknowledge it.

There are roughly 119 Division I college football teams, that will always be filled with world-class athletes living off scholarships and vying to make it in the NFL. It's an efficient machine of money, big business and politics. It's not going anywhere.
Participation in youth football is already shrinking in some parts of the country, apparently more in the northern states than the southern.  I can see that trend continuing. I don't see participation falling off in states like Texas for example for quite a long time, if ever.  Some parents as well as the kids themselves see that there is equal opportunity for a college scholarship playing sports that have a much lower risk of a reduced quality of life. Areas of the country where football is ubiquitous like Texas and is firmly engrained in the culture will continue to play and provide the bodies for college and the NFL for a long time to come.  But I can imagine a time in the fairly distant future where tackle football is not the most popular sport in the entire US.

View Postjeremy2020, on 24 April 2013 - 10:11 AM, said:

Are there numbers to back this up?
I didn't see any one place that listed it out, but there are plenty of articles like this one:
http://highschoolspo...ercent-but-why/

Quote

One sport that showed a large drop in participation was football.
Football saw a 6.9 percent drop, or 3,203 fewer student/athletes that took part in the sport a season ago.
That was the biggest drop since the 2006-2007 season.
Football coaches contacted by Mlive.com have continued to see the drop in numbers, especially at the freshman level. And Godwin High School suspended play of its varsity program this year because the lack of numbers to support of team.


#11 Chandler#81

Chandler#81

    Veteran

  • Global Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,280 posts

Posted 24 April 2013 - 10:29 AM

View PostKellyto83TD, on 24 April 2013 - 10:07 AM, said:



Disagree. it is changing moreso than ever ...

Disagree. Read up on the history of the sport. Comparatively, very few changes have been made in recent years.

#12 Mango

Mango

    RFA

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 1,042 posts

Posted 24 April 2013 - 10:54 AM

the issue with the NFL will be insuring the primary access to the sport.  depending on how these law suits go, insurance companies will charge such a premium, or refuse to insure schools that carry a football team.  this will eventually spill over to the low to mid major football programs who don't create revenue for their school, which is a majority of them.  it will be diminishing the pool of athletes entering the sport that will (if ever) be the demise of the nfl.

i think it is probable, considering the way this suit is going.  pop warner will be the first to go in townships, then middle school, then highschool

#13 RyanC883

RyanC883

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,072 posts

Posted 24 April 2013 - 11:00 AM

View PostCodeMonkey, on 24 April 2013 - 10:20 AM, said:

Participation in youth football is already shrinking in some parts of the country, apparently more in the northern states than the southern.  I can see that trend continuing. I don't see participation falling off in states like Texas for example for quite a long time, if ever.  Some parents as well as the kids themselves see that there is equal opportunity for a college scholarship playing sports that have a much lower risk of a reduced quality of life. Areas of the country where football is ubiquitous like Texas and is firmly engrained in the culture will continue to play and provide the bodies for college and the NFL for a long time to come.  But I can imagine a time in the fairly distant future where tackle football is not the most popular sport in the entire US.


I didn't see any one place that listed it out, but there are plenty of articles like this one:
http://highschoolspo...ercent-but-why/

The population in the North is also shrinking, which could account for the fewer number of kids allegedly playing football.

#14 Damian

Damian

    Ask me about my secret cult!

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 681 posts

Posted 24 April 2013 - 11:02 AM

Here's a pretty quick breakdown of sport injuries in kids:
http://www.chop.edu/...statistics.html


Football may cause injuries, but baseball is the sport that kills the most kids.
From the above link:
"Baseball also has the highest fatality rate among sports for children ages 5 to 14, with three to four children dying from baseball injuries each year"

#15 frogger

frogger

    I love lamp

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,073 posts

Posted 24 April 2013 - 11:04 AM

View PostKellyto83TD, on 24 April 2013 - 10:07 AM, said:



Disagree. it is changing moreso than ever and more parents are pulling / not letting their kids play. This media thing that the NFL uses to hype its game is hurting it as well. Parents and people are getting more informed.
I'm going to make an assumption, those kids who have protective parents rarely make it to division 1, regardless of the times.  For many kids in the city and area I live in, its there only way out.  Football will always do well, if  you look at the combine players are getting bigger, stronger and faster...they know the risk.
In terms of youth take in consideration cost, its the most expensive youth sport.  That's why there is a growing popularity to flag football.

Edited by frogger, 24 April 2013 - 11:09 AM.


#16 Mark80

Mark80

    RFA

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 843 posts

Posted 24 April 2013 - 11:06 AM

There is only one thing, really, that will cause a decline in football (or the NFL) in the near future; a giant class action lawsuit from former players regarding the NFL (or colleges) knowledge of injuries caused from the sport (namely long term effects of head trauma) and their intentional covering up of such knowledge in order to maintain profits and popularity.  If documents exist that prove this, then football will be in trouble.  Actual damages could be huge, punitive damages could be enormous, insurance rates would skyrocket, and real, game changing rule and safety equipment adjustments would be implemented to the detriment of the game.  Until then, it will continue to dominate the American sports scene for decades to come and will most likely grow exponentially in new, foreign markets.

Edited by Mark80, 24 April 2013 - 11:12 AM.


#17 Buftex

Buftex

    JIM KELLY: the reason for the seasons!

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 16,720 posts

Posted 24 April 2013 - 11:15 AM

View PostDamian, on 24 April 2013 - 11:02 AM, said:

Here's a pretty quick breakdown of sport injuries in kids:
http://www.chop.edu/...statistics.html


Football may cause injuries, but baseball is the sport that kills the most kids.
From the above link:
"Baseball also has the highest fatality rate among sports for children ages 5 to 14, with three to four children dying from baseball injuries each year"

Baseball kill kids, and it is boring!

#18 jeremy2020

jeremy2020

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,210 posts

Posted 24 April 2013 - 11:18 AM

View PostCodeMonkey, on 24 April 2013 - 10:20 AM, said:

I didn't see any one place that listed it out, but there are plenty of articles like this one:
http://highschoolspo...ercent-but-why/

That's a good article, but I wonder if there are some larger studies. That article is speaking about multiple sports suffering a decline with football being the largest which indicates there may be some other things going on as well. A lot of what I've seen has been anecdotal or been in schools/areas that are suffering other issues as well that complicate the issue.

#19 mitchmurraydowntown

mitchmurraydowntown

    RFA

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 1,209 posts

Posted 24 April 2013 - 11:23 AM

They're making better helmets, hopefully science knows how to make our bodies better to take the abuse that the game gives.

#20 Mr. WEO

Mr. WEO

    All Pro

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12,315 posts

Posted 24 April 2013 - 11:27 AM

View PostChandler#81, on 24 April 2013 - 10:05 AM, said:

The game has been changing for health and safety reasons from its inception. President Teddy Roosevelt demanded they make it safer 100 years ago. Parents didn't want their kids playing then either. The League has been outlawing previously acceptable hits throughout its exisistence.

Nothing has changed. The sport and the League's status is at an all-time high and they're doing what's necessary to keep it that way.

This is true.  No sport will ever push the NFL out of its overwhelmingly dominant position of popularity in this country.  There will never be enough parents of elite athletes pulling thier kids out of the sport to affect the talent pool the NFL has to chose from.  I cannot conceive of this happening.