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How good was FSU?

Manuel was on an island

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#1 C.Biscuit97

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Posted 01 May 2013 - 08:33 AM

In evaluating Manuel, there have been questions about his decision making and inconsistency.  However, I started thinking, is FSU that good offensively?  So I did a little research.

1)  Christian Ponder went #12 and Manuel went #16.  A comparison of their careers:

http://espn.go.com/c...hristian-ponder

http://espn.go.com/c...80849/ej-manuel

Manuel had the better career but neither had the insane #s like Geno Smith.  Yet, both went in the 1st round.  Which brings me to

2)  Who played around Manuel?  Here's a look a drafted FSU players:  http://www.seminoles...meNFLDraft.html

They haven't had a wr drafted since 2007.  They've had one rb drafted (5th round this year).  They had 2 2nd round OL and a 7th rounder.  They haven't had a TE drafted since Lonnie Freakin' Johnson in 1994!!!

I haven't broken down every drafted QB but you will be hard pressed to find a 1st round QB that played with less talent.  Even Losman had a rb and wr drafted from Tulane.  Luck played with a ton of drafted guys.  Same with RG3.  Even Nassib had a 1st round guard, 4th round rb, and Mike Williams during his time at Cuse.

I don't how Manuel will transition to the pros but he was not on a very talented offensive team.  There is little question that Bills have far and away more talent than FSU.  He never had a back like Spiller.  I think Marrone looked at this like college recruiting.  He could get a 5 star recruit who hasn't maximized his potential or settle for a guy who might have hit their ceiling (Barkley, Nassib).  And if he can make a 1 or 2 star recruit like Nassib into a NFL QB, hopefully he can turn Manuel into a franchise Qb.  We can only hope.

#2 YoloinOhio

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Posted 01 May 2013 - 09:31 AM

We don't know how he will turn out, but I agree with you. I take exception to the "experts" who say that Manuel came up small in big games in college or that he made bad decisions. First of all, since when does winning big games in college translate to being a good NFL starter? See Tebow, Tim. Or Manning/Brady/Rogers on the other side. Manning couldn't beat Florida, Brady was irrelevant, Rogers never was on any great teams. It does not predict anything. Yet his record was outstanding and he did win 4 straight bowl games, so I don't get it. Plus, show me a QB or does not make some bad decisions. Hello, Peyton Freaking Manning threw a cross body INT in his umpteenth season to lose a playoff game. Especially in college - hello, they are NOT a finished product yet and are often with inferior teammates and guys who don't know how to really coach a QB. I think it is hilarious that one of the plays Luck is best remembered for in college was a horrible INT, but he is lauded for it because he made a nice tackle on the guy afterward.

#3 dave mcbride

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Posted 01 May 2013 - 10:02 AM

FSU was a close second to Alabama in overall talent this year.

#4 Dorkington

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Posted 01 May 2013 - 10:04 AM

I like comparing the splits between the two. EJ has better stats in some pretty important (to me) categories. Including against ranked teams, on the road, and in 3rd down situations.

#5 bills_fan

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Posted 01 May 2013 - 10:09 AM

View Postdave mcbride, on 01 May 2013 - 10:02 AM, said:

FSU was a close second to Alabama in overall talent this year.

On offense?

#6 dave mcbride

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Posted 01 May 2013 - 10:10 AM

View Postbills_fan, on 01 May 2013 - 10:09 AM, said:

On offense?
I was talking overall. I should have been clearer.

#7 Ramius

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Posted 01 May 2013 - 10:19 AM

I can weigh in when I get home from work and i'm not on my phone. Too tough to a complete breakdown right now.

#8 Kelly the Dog

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Posted 01 May 2013 - 10:45 AM

View Postdave mcbride, on 01 May 2013 - 10:02 AM, said:

FSU was a close second to Alabama in overall talent this year.
Skill positions on offense they surely did not seem to. Overall they had a pretty good solid team.

I think they were ranked #7 in both preseason polls, so not sure how you can say they were second to Alabama in talent.

They had two #1 picks on defense.

Edited by Kelly the Dog, 01 May 2013 - 11:04 AM.


#9 eball

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Posted 01 May 2013 - 10:48 AM

View Postdave mcbride, on 01 May 2013 - 10:10 AM, said:

I was talking overall. I should have been clearer.

Yes, clearer -- as in, "on defense."

#10 FleaMoulds80

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Posted 01 May 2013 - 10:49 AM

View PostC.Biscuit97, on 01 May 2013 - 08:33 AM, said:

In evaluating Manuel, there have been questions about his decision making and inconsistency.  However, I started thinking, is FSU that good offensively?  So I did a little research.

1)  Christian Ponder went #12 and Manuel went #16.  A comparison of their careers:

http://espn.go.com/c...hristian-ponder

http://espn.go.com/c...80849/ej-manuel

Manuel had the better career but neither had the insane #s like Geno Smith.  Yet, both went in the 1st round.  Which brings me to

2)  Who played around Manuel?  Here's a look a drafted FSU players:  http://www.seminoles...meNFLDraft.html

They haven't had a wr drafted since 2007.  They've had one rb drafted (5th round this year).  They had 2 2nd round OL and a 7th rounder.  They haven't had a TE drafted since Lonnie Freakin' Johnson in 1994!!!

I haven't broken down every drafted QB but you will be hard pressed to find a 1st round QB that played with less talent.  Even Losman had a rb and wr drafted from Tulane.  Luck played with a ton of drafted guys.  Same with RG3.  Even Nassib had a 1st round guard, 4th round rb, and Mike Williams during his time at Cuse.

I don't how Manuel will transition to the pros but he was not on a very talented offensive team.  There is little question that Bills have far and away more talent than FSU.  He never had a back like Spiller.  I think Marrone looked at this like college recruiting.  He could get a 5 star recruit who hasn't maximized his potential or settle for a guy who might have hit their ceiling (Barkley, Nassib).  And if he can make a 1 or 2 star recruit like Nassib into a NFL QB, hopefully he can turn Manuel into a franchise Qb.  We can only hope.

Everything you just said means absolutely nothing when evaluating QBs in college. Who did Matt Ryan have when he was at Boston College? What about Joe Flacco? Tom Brady had some nice weapons but wasn't the most talented and didn't have the best numbers. Who was Andrew Luck throwing the ball to at Stanford?

When you're evaluating QBs you look at the QB himself and gametape. What he does under pressure. His mechanics, athletic abilities, etc. Regardless of who his targets are.

#11 dave mcbride

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Posted 01 May 2013 - 11:08 AM

View Posteball, on 01 May 2013 - 10:48 AM, said:

Yes, clearer -- as in, "on defense."
No, I meant overall, not "on defense" (although they were more talented on defense than offense).  They had a ton of guys drafted in the early rounds and 11 players overall. That's astounding.

http://sportsillustr...ker/#schools/35

Three of the picks were offensive players (first, second, and fifth rounds - QB, LT, and RB). Alabama had 9 players taken, as did LSU. http://sportsillustr...er/#conferences

SI is also already projecting to FSU first round picks on defense next year: http://nfl.si.com/20...nfl-mock-draft/

#12 Doc

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Posted 01 May 2013 - 11:12 AM

On defense, FSU was stacked.  Still though it had trouble with the Gators, who were ranked 97th in the country in yards, and 78th in points.

On offense, people say their OL is a strength, but it struggled in games against NCSt and the aforementioned Florida Gators.  Their WR's were highly-regarded and seem to have talent, but they haven't put it together yet because they're young.  Rashad Greene was their best WR, and he's just a sophomore.  Suffice it to say they didn't have a WR close to the level of a Stevie, Woods, or Rogers.  At RB they had some good players, but had injury issues.  They had no TE.  And Fisher's play-calling was curious to say the least.

#13 Kelly the Dog

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Posted 01 May 2013 - 11:22 AM

Put it this way, Barkley had #2 pick Robert Woods, whom we universally love (the first time that has ever happened) who was USC's second best WR. Geno had Austin the #8 overall, and Steadman who was taken in #3.

#14 BUFFALOTONE

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Posted 01 May 2013 - 11:29 AM

They are night and day as far as Manuel and Ponder. The reason why Manuel and Geno's stats are skewed is the number of attempts, offense and overall team. FSU had a dominating defense/WVU was a siv. they were always coming from behind. We had deep talent at RB/ you would be hard pressed to name the WVU RB, oh thats right Tavon Austin. Manuel has all the athletic gifts you look for in a franchise QB. in my opinion and Ramius may be able to attest to this is that Jimbo stunted his growth with his offense and how vanilla they were at times. The rumors are true that he was a half the field read QB, but has the athletic ability to scramble and is as strong as an Ox, think Cam Newton in this aspect but not an arrogant twit.

Edited by BUFFALOTONE, 01 May 2013 - 11:31 AM.


#15 Kelly the Dog

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Posted 01 May 2013 - 11:45 AM

View PostBUFFALOTONE, on 01 May 2013 - 11:29 AM, said:

. The rumors are true that he was a half the field read QB, but has the athletic ability to scramble and is as strong as an Ox, think Cam Newton in this aspect but not an arrogant twit.
Nix said in an interview they were worried about the half the field read themselves when they first scouted him, and then spoke to him about it while reviewing tape and he said that is exactly as he was coached to run the play, which was then corroborated by his coaches which they asked specifically about that.

#16 chris heff

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Posted 01 May 2013 - 11:50 AM

View PostBUFFALOTONE, on 01 May 2013 - 11:29 AM, said:

They are night and day as far as Manuel and Ponder. The reason why Manuel and Geno's stats are skewed is the number of attempts, offense and overall team. FSU had a dominating defense/WVU was a siv. they were always coming from behind. We had deep talent at RB/ you would be hard pressed to name the WVU RB, oh thats right Tavon Austin. Manuel has all the athletic gifts you look for in a franchise QB. in my opinion and Ramius may be able to attest to this is that Jimbo stunted his growth with his offense and how vanilla they were at times. The rumors are true that he was a half the field read QB, but has the athletic ability to scramble and is as strong as an Ox, think Cam Newton in this aspect but not an arrogant twit.
Love your avatar.

#17 bladiebla

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Posted 01 May 2013 - 11:51 AM

View PostDoc, on 01 May 2013 - 11:12 AM, said:

On defense, FSU was stacked.  Still though it had trouble with the Gators, who were ranked 97th in the country in yards, and 78th in points.

On offense, people say their OL is a strength, but it struggled in games against NCSt and the aforementioned Florida Gators.  Their WR's were highly-regarded and seem to have talent, but they haven't put it together yet because they're young.  Rashad Greene was their best WR, and he's just a sophomore.  Suffice it to say they didn't have a WR close to the level of a Stevie, Woods, or Rogers.  At RB they had some good players, but had injury issues.  They had no TE.  And Fisher's play-calling was curious to say the least.

Wasn't the Florida game a majorly bad game for Manuel?

#18 cosmo

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Posted 01 May 2013 - 11:54 AM

View PostFleaMoulds80, on 01 May 2013 - 10:49 AM, said:

Everything you just said means absolutely nothing when evaluating QBs in college. Who did Matt Ryan have when he was at Boston College? What about Joe Flacco? Tom Brady had some nice weapons but wasn't the most talented and didn't have the best numbers. Who was Andrew Luck throwing the ball to at Stanford?

When you're evaluating QBs you look at the QB himself and gametape. What he does under pressure. His mechanics, athletic abilities, etc. Regardless of who his targets are.

Obviously there's all kinds of exceptions but I think the OP was just pointing out that due to the lack of playmakers at FSU, we don't really know what EJ's ceiling is yet. We saw Geno put up those #'s with super stud Austin and a 3rd rounder in Bailey and Barkley with his two stud WRs and we haven't really seen what EJ can do with guys like that around him.

#19 Doc

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Posted 01 May 2013 - 11:59 AM

View Postbladiebla, on 01 May 2013 - 11:51 AM, said:

Wasn't the Florida game a majorly bad game for Manuel?
It was a bad game all around.  But they had the lead going into the 4th quarter, and then Manuel got knocked into next Tuesday and the defense surrendered 24 points.

#20 The Wiz

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Posted 01 May 2013 - 12:07 PM

View PostKelly the Dog, on 01 May 2013 - 11:45 AM, said:

Nix said in an interview they were worried about the half the field read themselves when they first scouted him, and then spoke to him about it while reviewing tape and he said that is exactly as he was coached to run the play, which was then corroborated by his coaches which they asked specifically about that.
At least we know he can execute a game plan!