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Great analysis of Jairus Byrd's worth by Spotrac.com


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#1 Estro

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Posted 08 May 2013 - 09:46 PM

http://www.spotrac.c...airus-byrd-313/

Edited by Estro, 08 May 2013 - 09:48 PM.


#2 uncle flap

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Posted 08 May 2013 - 09:48 PM

http://forums.twobil...20#entry2804969

#3 Estro

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Posted 08 May 2013 - 10:00 PM

A very fair and analytical breakdown of what Byrd's next contract might look like.  I happen to believe the projection is a little in Byrd's favor, as it pays him nearly 800k more per season when compared to the contract just signed by Dashon Goldson, which seems to be a market setter.  I do think Byrd is better than Goldson, but I expect his contract to just barely beat out Goldson's.  Byrd's representatives surely know their man is worth being the highest paid safety (not counting Eric Berry's contract, because it was under the old rookie wage scale), and no discounts will be given.  Where I think the major negotiations will need to be hashed out is the guaranteed money.  Byrd's agent will be looking for the $20+ million as projected in the article, IMO, but I think the Bills will hold firm on a figure closer to the guarantees that Goldson and Weddle received ($18 & $19 million, respectively).  My assessment of a fair deal for both sides:  5 years - $42 million, with $19.5 million guaranteed

View Postuncle flap, on 08 May 2013 - 09:48 PM, said:

My bad.

#4 uncle flap

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Posted 08 May 2013 - 10:30 PM

View PostEstro, on 08 May 2013 - 10:00 PM, said:

A very fair and analytical breakdown of what Byrd's next contract might look like.  I happen to believe the projection is a little in Byrd's favor, as it pays him nearly 800k more per season when compared to the contract just signed by Dashon Goldson, which seems to be a market setter.  I do think Byrd is better than Goldson, but I expect his contract to just barely beat out Goldson's.  Byrd's representatives surely know their man is worth being the highest paid safety (not counting Eric Berry's contract, because it was under the old rookie wage scale), and no discounts will be given.  Where I think the major negotiations will need to be hashed out is the guaranteed money.  Byrd's agent will be looking for the $20+ million as projected in the article, IMO, but I think the Bills will hold firm on a figure closer to the guarantees that Goldson and Weddle received ($18 & $19 million, respectively).  My assessment of a fair deal for both sides:  5 years - $42 million, with $19.5 million guaranteed


My bad.

No biggie, just didn't want to type all that again, lol.

I agree that the guaranteed money will be a sticking point, but I disagree on the projections (yours and the authors). I think if Byrd re-signs with the Bills, it'll be for over $45 mil if it's a 5 yr deal, and over $20 guaranteed. Byrd might not get that elsewhere, and his value would fall closer to the projections, but I think since the Bills don't want to let Byrd go and have the money to pay him, Parker will see that as an opportunity to squeeze every last cent out of the deal.

JMO, but I think Byrd and Parker sense they can get more than market value out of the Bills and are willing to play hardball to get it. I just hope for better or worse, Byrd gets into camp and the Bills at least get another year out of him.

#5 BillsWatch

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Posted 08 May 2013 - 11:17 PM

I wonder how much green Parker gave spotrac.com.

#6 Dean Cain

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Posted 08 May 2013 - 11:49 PM

The 9 million figure avg over 5 years with over 19 guaranteed seems high, but when comparing Byrd to the other safeties at his level who signed similar deals it makes perfect sense. Isn't this why the NFL & players union cut rookie wages, to pay deserving veterans commensurate their actual value?

#7 Estro

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Posted 09 May 2013 - 01:36 AM

The Bills do have some leverage when it comes to negotiations, that hasn't been talked about too much.  If Byrd and the Bills do not come to an agreement he will play the season out at a salary of $6.916 million, none of which is paid up front.  Meaning Byrd will have to wait until the completion of week 17 to see that full $6.916 million.  The Bills then could, and very likely would, tag Byrd again for the 2014 season at a 20% raise, which would earn Byrd $8.3 million.  Once again, that $8.3 million would not be fully earned until the completion of week 17 of the 2014 season.  So the Bills could essentially have Byrd for the next 2 seasons on a 2 year - $15.215 million deal, a relative bargain compared to the other top end safety contracts.  Obviously there is quite a bit of incentive for Byrd not to go down that road because an injury could cost him his first shot at a "big money" deal.  Likewise the Bills would rather do a long term deal to have cap friendlier numbers in the first few years of a new deal.  Although, if the Bills still strictly follow a cash to cap model, they wouldn't really care about Byrd carrying high cap numbers under the franchise tag contract, because they are securing his services for a relatively low price when compared to what it'll cost to sing him long-term.  What's better for the Bills: 2 years - $15.215 million (all guaranteed) or 5 years - $42 million ($20 million guaranteed)?  Obviously, the first choice wins hands down, but you risk alienating a young talented player.  Which would you choose if you were running the Bills front office?  It's a tough call.  I only bring it up to point out the fact the Bills are the ones truly holding all the leverage in these negotiations.

#8 Dr. Fong

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Posted 09 May 2013 - 02:05 AM

View PostEstro, on 09 May 2013 - 01:36 AM, said:

Which would you choose if you were running the Bills front office?  It's a tough call.  I only bring it up to point out the fact the Bills are the ones truly holding all the leverage in these negotiations.

Homestly I probably would have tried to move him prior to the draft and used a draft pick to bring in a young safety. 9 million per year is too much to pay for a safety. If Pettine convinced me that he needed Byrd to make his offense go I'd be swayed to pay up, but considering his history with the Jets I doubt he'd ask for the money to be spent there.

#9 Estro

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Posted 09 May 2013 - 02:45 AM

View PostDr. Fong, on 09 May 2013 - 02:05 AM, said:

Homestly I probably would have tried to move him prior to the draft and used a draft pick to bring in a young safety. 9 million per year is too much to pay for a safety. If Pettine convinced me that he needed Byrd to make his offense go I'd be swayed to pay up, but considering his history with the Jets I doubt he'd ask for the money to be spent there.
Trade a young and very talented safety?  I don't agree with that logic.  While not as important of a position than say CB, I think safeties play an important role in Pettine's defense.  Couple that with the fact that we aren't already spending major resources, in terms of dollars, on our secondary and I think the Bills have plenty of room to workout a deal that won't harm them in the future.  Keep in mind we have Stephon Gilmore locked up for at least another 3 years at a very, very reasonable rookie-deal price.

Edited by Estro, 09 May 2013 - 02:45 AM.


#10 CSBill

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Posted 09 May 2013 - 05:16 AM

I have to agree about NOT trading him. The Bills for too long have developed young talented players, and then let them walk (or trade them) when its time to pay them. Should we pay through the roof? No. But if this franchisee wants to truly compete, you have to pay to keep the best players.

#11 eball

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Posted 09 May 2013 - 05:30 AM

View PostCSBill, on 09 May 2013 - 05:16 AM, said:

I have to agree about NOT trading him. The Bills for too long have developed young talented players, and then let them walk (or trade them) when its time to pay them. Should we pay through the roof? No. But if this franchisee wants to truly compete, you have to pay to keep the best players.

That was a legitimate gripe before Nix took over, but not since.  Poz and Levitre are the two highest profile players the Bills have "let walk" and most would agree the salaries they received elsewhere approach insanity.

Kyle Williams, Stevie Johnson, etc., have been extended under this regime.  Have a little faith; it's early in the process and this is a big contract.

#12 ALF

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Posted 09 May 2013 - 05:54 AM

If Byrd wants more than $8 million a year it would make more sense to keep the franchise tag this season. Mario took much of the salary cap.

#13 nucci

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Posted 09 May 2013 - 06:31 AM

View PostEstro, on 09 May 2013 - 01:36 AM, said:

The Bills do have some leverage when it comes to negotiations, that hasn't been talked about too much.  If Byrd and the Bills do not come to an agreement he will play the season out at a salary of $6.916 million, none of which is paid up front.  Meaning Byrd will have to wait until the completion of week 17 to see that full $6.916 million.  The Bills then could, and very likely would, tag Byrd again for the 2014 season at a 20% raise, which would earn Byrd $8.3 million.  Once again, that $8.3 million would not be fully earned until the completion of week 17 of the 2014 season.  So the Bills could essentially have Byrd for the next 2 seasons on a 2 year - $15.215 million deal, a relative bargain compared to the other top end safety contracts.  Obviously there is quite a bit of incentive for Byrd not to go down that road because an injury could cost him his first shot at a "big money" deal.  Likewise the Bills would rather do a long term deal to have cap friendlier numbers in the first few years of a new deal.  Although, if the Bills still strictly follow a cash to cap model, they wouldn't really care about Byrd carrying high cap numbers under the franchise tag contract, because they are securing his services for a relatively low price when compared to what it'll cost to sing him long-term.  What's better for the Bills: 2 years - $15.215 million (all guaranteed) or 5 years - $42 million ($20 million guaranteed)?  Obviously, the first choice wins hands down, but you risk alienating a young talented player.  Which would you choose if you were running the Bills front office?  It's a tough call.  I only bring it up to point out the fact the Bills are the ones truly holding all the leverage in these negotiations.
I disagree. That is too big a cap hit. Either they work out a long term deal or he's gone.

#14 Canadian Bills Fan

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Posted 09 May 2013 - 07:55 AM

Is there a limit for how many consecutive times you can franchise a player?

CBF

#15 nucci

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Posted 09 May 2013 - 07:58 AM

View PostCanadian_Bills_Fan, on 09 May 2013 - 07:55 AM, said:

Is there a limit for how many consecutive times you can franchise a player?

CBF
http://profootballta...-franchise-tag/

#16 Canadian Bills Fan

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Posted 09 May 2013 - 09:05 AM

View Postnucci, on 09 May 2013 - 07:58 AM, said:


Thanks

CBF

#17 Steve O

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Posted 09 May 2013 - 09:21 AM

View Postnucci, on 09 May 2013 - 07:58 AM, said:

Interesting stuff

#18 bladiebla

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Posted 09 May 2013 - 01:43 PM

View PostBillsWatch, on 08 May 2013 - 11:17 PM, said:

I wonder how much green Parker gave spotrac.com.
this!

#19 K-9

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Posted 09 May 2013 - 01:57 PM

Nice analysis, but if Parker cites profootballfocus ratings, he'll be laughed out of the office.

GO BILLS!!!

#20 ny33

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Posted 09 May 2013 - 03:36 PM

Here's one thing that makes me cringe: look at the teams paying that much money, in a long-term contract, to a safety. None are winners like SF (who let Goldson go) or Baltimore.