Jump to content


Going for it and clock management


  • Please log in to reply
36 replies to this topic

#1 Harveyj001

Harveyj001

    UDFA

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 81 posts

Posted 09 May 2013 - 07:35 AM

Here is an amazing mathematical analysis on when coaches should "go for it" on 4th down. Many on here have criticized our coaches for game managment, I wish they woul duse something like this!

http://www.advancedn...udy-part-1.html

#2 eball

eball

    Omar Sly

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12,559 posts

Posted 09 May 2013 - 09:42 AM

Right now I'm kicking myself for not asking this question during yesterday's ST holder call w/ Marrone.  I'd love to know his thoughts on using statistics and probabilities to make 4th down decisions, as opposed to taking the "safe" route like so many coaches do.

#3 RyanC883

RyanC883

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,660 posts

Posted 09 May 2013 - 10:04 AM

View Posteball, on 09 May 2013 - 09:42 AM, said:

Right now I'm kicking myself for not asking this question during yesterday's ST holder call w/ Marrone.  I'd love to know his thoughts on using statistics and probabilities to make 4th down decisions, as opposed to taking the "safe" route like so many coaches do.

How did you find out about the ST holder call w/ Marrone?   I got season tickets this year and never heard about it?!

Edited by RyanC883, 09 May 2013 - 10:05 AM.


#4 eball

eball

    Omar Sly

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12,559 posts

Posted 09 May 2013 - 10:18 AM

View PostRyanC883, on 09 May 2013 - 10:04 AM, said:

How did you find out about the ST holder call w/ Marrone?   I got season tickets this year and never heard about it?!

Emails from my ticket rep.

#5 richNjoisy

richNjoisy

    Buffalo Native

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,766 posts

Posted 09 May 2013 - 10:34 AM

Yep - I had an email from my ticket rep.

#6 Tsaikotic

Tsaikotic

    RFA

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 1,091 posts

Posted 09 May 2013 - 10:57 AM

did any of you guys call and ask a ? ?

#7 kdiggz

kdiggz

    Kiko is my daddy

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 1,201 posts

Posted 09 May 2013 - 11:02 AM

"Using these calcumulations I've decided that we should punt from the opponent's 34 yard line" - Chan Gailey

#8 RyanC883

RyanC883

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,660 posts

Posted 09 May 2013 - 11:21 AM

Thanks guys!

#9 dave mcbride

dave mcbride

    All Pro

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 8,480 posts

Posted 09 May 2013 - 12:26 PM

This is a good piece, for those who missed it: http://sportsillustr...06508/index.htm

#10 JESSEFEFFER

JESSEFEFFER

    Rookie

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 333 posts

Posted 09 May 2013 - 12:32 PM

View Postkdiggz, on 09 May 2013 - 11:02 AM, said:

"Using these calcumulations I've decided that we should punt from the opponent's 34 yard line" - Chan Gailey

Factor in an aging, weaker legged kicker attempting into the wind, a defense that had been historically bad at times but was succeeding this particular day (would not want to give the Rams a jump start with a missed kick and would later fail in the clutch--again) and a patch work offensive line that was having protection issues and had been characteristically poor at the short yardage run game.

Add to that the chance that said punt might get downed inside the 5 (and it was) and you get a decision that, no matter what the consensus of opinion wants to make of it, had little negative impact on the game.

#11 mannc

mannc

    RFA

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 930 posts

Posted 09 May 2013 - 12:47 PM

View PostHarveyj001, on 09 May 2013 - 07:35 AM, said:

Here is an amazing mathematical analysis on when coaches should "go for it" on 4th down. Many on here have criticized our coaches for game managment, I wish they woul duse something like this!

http://www.advancedn...udy-part-1.html
Great article.  It will be interesting to see what the Eagles do on 4th downs this year.  Chip Kelly obviously is well aware of research like this and I believe he relies on it in his gameday decision-making.  Oregon rarely punted or attempted field goals.  I expect the Eagles to do likewise.  They will be a fun team to watch, that's for sure.

There is at least one other significant advantage a team has if it knows it is not going to punt on fourth down:  A 3rd and 3, 3rd and 4, or 3d and 5 down and distance is no longer an automatic pass/empty backfield situation because you have two shots at picking up the first down.  The defense has to defend both the run and the pass, and if it doesn't, the offense can take advantage of that.

Another area that is ripe for this sort of analysis is when and whether to go for a two-point conversion.  In general, I don't think NFL teams go for two nearly as often as they should.

Edited by mannc, 09 May 2013 - 12:50 PM.


#12 eball

eball

    Omar Sly

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12,559 posts

Posted 09 May 2013 - 12:49 PM

View PostTsaikotic, on 09 May 2013 - 10:57 AM, said:

did any of you guys call and ask a ? ?

I called in, but I didn't ask any questions as I was just listening while at work.

#13 GaryPinC

GaryPinC

    RFAA

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 572 posts

Posted 09 May 2013 - 12:56 PM

View PostHarveyj001, on 09 May 2013 - 07:35 AM, said:

Here is an amazing mathematical analysis on when coaches should "go for it" on 4th down. Many on here have criticized our coaches for game managment, I wish they woul duse something like this!

http://www.advancedn...udy-part-1.html

It's not amazing to me.  Interesting, but there are too many biases.  Inside your own 20 @ 4th and 1 or 2 you should always go for it?!?!  And how many times has this happened in the first and third quarters in the 9 seasons the author uses for his dataset?

In addressing post-article 4 comments the author states that the conversion rates for third and fourth down appear to be similar and that for situations like 4th and 10 from a given yard line when there's not "enough" 4th down data he used the third down conversion rate instead.

He never reveals how much of his data is based on third down conversion rates.

He never in any way statistically justifies throwing out 2nd and 4th quarter data, where possibly a larger % of fourth down conversion attempts actually occur.

When you've got an author admitting he's fudged together his data it's really difficult to say how strong that data actually is.  I would guess that with 9 football seasons to analyze, his n of fourth down attempts at each yard mark is mostly very small and/or he borrowed a lot of third down conversion data.

#14 C-Man

C-Man

    Probation

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 40 posts

Posted 09 May 2013 - 12:57 PM

sorry, wrong thread.

Edited by C-Man, 09 May 2013 - 12:59 PM.


#15 San Jose Bills Fan

San Jose Bills Fan

    San Jose Bills Fan

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 20,764 posts

Posted 09 May 2013 - 01:16 PM

View Postmannc, on 09 May 2013 - 12:47 PM, said:

Great article.  It will be interesting to see what the Eagles do on 4th downs this year.  Chip Kelly obviously is well aware of research like this and I believe he relies on it in his gameday decision-making.  Oregon rarely punted or attempted field goals.  I expect the Eagles to do likewise.  They will be a fun team to watch, that's for sure.

There is at least one other significant advantage a team has if it knows it is not going to punt on fourth down:  A 3rd and 3, 3rd and 4, or 3d and 5 down and distance is no longer an automatic pass/empty backfield situation because you have two shots at picking up the first down.  The defense has to defend both the run and the pass, and if it doesn't, the offense can take advantage of that.

Another area that is ripe for this sort of analysis is when and whether to go for a two-point conversion.  In general, I don't think NFL teams go for two nearly as often as they should.

Strong post.

The bolded is something I've been saying for decades.

Actually Bill Parcells/Ron Erhardt were masters of this thinking.

The defense would be thinking, if we stop them here we punt.

Parcells was thinking this is 4 down territory. We have two plays to make this yardage and they don't have to be passes.

#16 mannc

mannc

    RFA

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 930 posts

Posted 09 May 2013 - 01:16 PM

View PostGaryPinC, on 09 May 2013 - 12:56 PM, said:

It's not amazing to me.  Interesting, but there are too many biases.  Inside your own 20 @ 4th and 1 or 2 you should always go for it?!?!  And how many times has this happened in the first and third quarters in the 9 seasons the author uses for his dataset?

In addressing post-article 4 comments the author states that the conversion rates for third and fourth down appear to be similar and that for situations like 4th and 10 from a given yard line when there's not "enough" 4th down data he used the third down conversion rate instead.

He never reveals how much of his data is based on third down conversion rates.

He never in any way statistically justifies throwing out 2nd and 4th quarter data, where possibly a larger % of fourth down conversion attempts actually occur.

When you've got an author admitting he's fudged together his data it's really difficult to say how strong that data actually is.  I would guess that with 9 football seasons to analyze, his n of fourth down attempts at each yard mark is mostly very small and/or he borrowed a lot of third down conversion data.
He did not "fudge together his data".  He explained exactly what information he based his study on.  While you have pointed out some things he might have done differently, you don't have any evidence that by including the data you say he left out, the result would have been any different, or how it would have differed.  I think you also mischaracterize his conclusions.  The author never says "Inside your own 20, fourth and 2 you should always go for it."  He makes it clear that decisions will (and should) frequently vary depending upon the score of the game and the amount of time remaining.  There here have been multiple studies of these issues and to my knowledge all have concluded that NFL coaches punt far, far too often.

#17 San Jose Bills Fan

San Jose Bills Fan

    San Jose Bills Fan

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 20,764 posts

Posted 09 May 2013 - 01:18 PM

View Postmannc, on 09 May 2013 - 01:16 PM, said:

He makes it clear that decisions will (and should) frequently vary depending upon the score of the game and the amount of time remaining.  There here have been multiple studies of these issues and to my knowledge all have concluded that NFL coaches punt far, far too often.

All of the studies I've seen on the subject conclude the bolded.

#18 mannc

mannc

    RFA

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 930 posts

Posted 09 May 2013 - 01:20 PM

View PostSan Jose Bills Fan, on 09 May 2013 - 01:16 PM, said:


Actually Bill Parcells/Ron Erhardt were masters of this thinking.

The defense would be thinking, if we stop them here we punt.

Parcells was thinking this is 4 down territory. We have two plays to make this yardage and they don't have to be passes.
Yep.  It drives me crazy when I see a team come out empty backfield on 3rd and 2 in a situation where they really need to go for it on fourth down.  I have never, ever heard an announcer talk about this.

#19 San Jose Bills Fan

San Jose Bills Fan

    San Jose Bills Fan

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 20,764 posts

Posted 09 May 2013 - 01:21 PM

View Postmannc, on 09 May 2013 - 01:20 PM, said:

Yep.  It drives me crazy when I see a team come out empty backfield on 3rd and 2 in a situation where they really need to go for it on fourth down.  I have never, ever heard an announcer talk about this.

Of course now with EJ Manuel we can call a QB option/draw and he can waltz for the first down!

:thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:

#20 mannc

mannc

    RFA

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 930 posts

Posted 09 May 2013 - 02:00 PM

View PostHarveyj001, on 09 May 2013 - 07:35 AM, said:

Here is an amazing mathematical analysis on when coaches should "go for it" on 4th down. Many on here have criticized our coaches for game managment, I wish they woul duse something like this!

http://www.advancedn...udy-part-1.html
You might want to change the title of the thread.  The article really has very little to do with clock management.