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Teams worse than 6-10 last year, poised to make the playoffs


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#1 Billsrhody

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 11:29 AM

Grantland's Bill Barnwell wrote a pretty interesting article today, http://www.grantland...d-make-playoffs

The only thing I can really point to with the Bills is their fumble recovery rate. History tells us that teams will recover about half of the fumbles that hit the ground in their games from year to year, but Buffalo managed to pick up only 30.6 percent of the fumbles in its contests last year, which was the worst rate in football.

This is a piece from the Bill's section (he ranks them at #6th most likely to make the leap). Fumble rate is something that I would have never realized if it wasn't pointed out. I find it hard to believe that he thinks the Jets/Browns are more likely to make the playoffs than the Bills.. but I guess thats my bias showing.

#2 Gugny

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 11:35 AM

View PostBillsrhody, on 10 July 2013 - 11:29 AM, said:

Grantland's Bill Barnwell wrote a pretty interesting article today, http://www.grantland...d-make-playoffs

The only thing I can really point to with the Bills is their fumble recovery rate. History tells us that teams will recover about half of the fumbles that hit the ground in their games from year to year, but Buffalo managed to pick up only 30.6 percent of the fumbles in its contests last year, which was the worst rate in football.

This is a piece from the Bill's section (he ranks them at #6th most likely to make the leap). Fumble rate is something that I would have never realized if it wasn't pointed out. I find it hard to believe that he thinks the Jets/Browns are more likely to make the playoffs than the Bills.. but I guess thats my bias showing.
I don't think it's your bias showing.  I think it's the author's stupidity showing.

#3 Nanker

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 11:40 AM

Nice. Thanks for posting about the article. I can't get too wrapped up in predictions for the upcoming season. The thing is that at this time of the year, so little is known about The Bills and to look at last season for clues to the next is like driving down an Interstate highway using only your rearview mirror to steer. Every season is different. This year's squad is way different. I like most of the off season moves that the FO has done, but until we see some action in pads and preseason games, we're not going to have much of an idea if we should get excited or get more Pepto-bismol and a fresh box of lunch bags.

#4 JESSEFEFFER

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 12:14 PM

It wasn't long ago that the Texan's defense was described by Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders as "historically bad."  This reality changed the day Wade Philips took over as DC.  That same scenario is the one the Bills need to be considered in the "worst to first" conversation.

As for the fumbles lost, they seemed to have an inordinate amount of fumbles in the passing game after successful plays in the open field.  The odds are against the offense for recovering these as the defenders rally to the ball.  I recall Chandler, Dickerson, SJ, Spiller, FJax multiple times.

#5 rayray808

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 12:20 PM

the AFC East has never been more wide open (since Brady got his knee shredded in KC)... start a rookie QB, and sneak into the playoffs... seems to be the recipe to success in the NFL

#6 KD in CT

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 12:39 PM

That seems like a pretty fair list to me.   I wouldn't give the Bills any better or worst shot than the Jets at making the playoffs.   The Jets at least have a core of guys who have been part of a winning team in the recent past.  And while Sanchez is the easiest joke since replacement refs, I think it's reasonable to expect some marginal improvement over 2012.

#7 eball

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 12:53 PM

View PostKD in CT, on 10 July 2013 - 12:39 PM, said:

That seems like a pretty fair list to me.   I wouldn't give the Bills any better or worst shot than the Jets at making the playoffs.   The Jets at least have a core of guys who have been part of a winning team in the recent past.  And while Sanchez is the easiest joke since replacement refs, I think it's reasonable to expect some marginal improvement over 2012.

I give the Browns much more of a shot than the Jets.  The personnel in NY -- particularly the offensive skill positions -- is worst in the league.  They're not going to be able to score points.

Jets wind up with no more than five wins this season -- mark it down.

Edited by eball, 10 July 2013 - 12:54 PM.


#8 KD in CT

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 12:57 PM

View Posteball, on 10 July 2013 - 12:53 PM, said:

I give the Browns much more of a shot than the Jets.  The personnel in NY -- particularly the offensive skill positions -- is worst in the league.  They're not going to be able to score points.

Jets wind up with no more than five wins this season -- mark it down.

I agree with that.  But I also think the Bills end up in the same neighborhood.  That'll probably be the battle for 3d place.

#9 Big C

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 12:57 PM

View Posteball, on 10 July 2013 - 12:53 PM, said:

I give the Browns much more of a shot than the Jets.  The personnel in NY -- particularly the offensive skill positions -- is worst in the league.  They're not going to be able to score points.

Jets wind up with no more than five wins this season -- mark it down.

Agreed.

#10 dwight in philly

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 02:34 PM

View PostBig C, on 10 July 2013 - 12:57 PM, said:

Agreed.
why?

#11 eball

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 02:39 PM

View PostKD in CT, on 10 July 2013 - 12:57 PM, said:

I agree with that.  But I also think the Bills end up in the same neighborhood.  That'll probably be the battle for 3d place.

I keep coming back to the fact the Bills won 6 last year and lost 4 others at the end of the 4th quarter.  The coaching and QB play was substandard.

New coaches, new QB -- I guess I'm figuring they won't be worse.

#12 Chandler#81

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 02:42 PM

View PostBillsrhody, on 10 July 2013 - 11:29 AM, said:

Grantland's Bill Barnwell wrote a pretty interesting article today, http://www.grantland...d-make-playoffs

The only thing I can really point to with the Bills is their fumble recovery rate. History tells us that teams will recover about half of the fumbles that hit the ground in their games from year to year, but Buffalo managed to pick up only 30.6 percent of the fumbles in its contests last year, which was the worst rate in football.

This is a piece from the Bill's section (he ranks them at #6th most likely to make the leap). Fumble rate is something that I would have never realized if it wasn't pointed out. I find it hard to believe that he thinks the Jets/Browns are more likely to make the playoffs than the Bills.. but I guess thats my bias showing.

I've been advocating this all off-season as the one big aspect that CAN change from year to year and dramatically impact W/L's. It takes a lot of luck and also a dedicated commitment to it from TC through the season. One could argue we were 5-6 T/O's from 10 wins last season.

#13 KD in CT

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 02:50 PM

View Posteball, on 10 July 2013 - 02:39 PM, said:

I keep coming back to the fact the Bills won 6 last year and lost 4 others at the end of the 4th quarter.  The coaching and QB play was substandard.

New coaches, new QB -- I guess I'm figuring they won't be worse.
I hope you're right, but I have a hard time seeing a huge improvement at QB.  Kolb will only be marginally better and if it's EJ, you can count on a couple games lost thanks to rookie mistakes offsetting what we hope are some highlight moments.

Plus, we're putting a lot of faith in the defense being much better despite a minimal improvement in talent.   I still have nightmares about the Pats running the ball at will.

#14 eball

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 02:57 PM

View PostKD in CT, on 10 July 2013 - 02:50 PM, said:

I hope you're right, but I have a hard time seeing a huge improvement at QB.  Kolb will only be marginally better and if it's EJ, you can count on a couple games lost thanks to rookie mistakes offsetting what we hope are some highlight moments.

Plus, we're putting a lot of faith in the defense being much better despite a minimal improvement in talent.   I still have nightmares about the Pats running the ball at will.

Couple of points upon which my reasoning is based:

1 -- I still believe Manuel will be the opening day starter, and whatever he lacks in experience compared to Fitz he will more than make up for with his accuracy, the ability to actually throw the ball more than 20 yards, and his running/athleticism.

2 -- The defense had talent last year but was the most horribly coached unit in all of football.  Pettine WILL be a huge upgrade.

If I'm wrong, we all lose.

#15 Billsrhody

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 02:58 PM

View PostChandler#81, on 10 July 2013 - 02:42 PM, said:

I've been advocating this all off-season as the one big aspect that CAN change from year to year and dramatically impact W/L's. It takes a lot of luck and also a dedicated commitment to it from TC through the season. One could argue we were 5-6 T/O's from 10 wins last season.

I agree you can practice for some this stuff, for instance stripping the ball. But a lot of it just comes down to luck. When the ball is on the ground, there is much you can do to train for recovering a football.. especially if you want to avoid injury.

#16 jumbalaya

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 03:03 PM

View PostBillsrhody, on 10 July 2013 - 11:29 AM, said:

Grantland's Bill Barnwell wrote a pretty interesting article today, http://www.grantland...d-make-playoffs

The only thing I can really point to with the Bills is their fumble recovery rate. History tells us that teams will recover about half of the fumbles that hit the ground in their games from year to year, but Buffalo managed to pick up only 30.6 percent of the fumbles in its contests last year, which was the worst rate in football.

This is a piece from the Bill's section (he ranks them at #6th most likely to make the leap). Fumble rate is something that I would have never realized if it wasn't pointed out. I find it hard to believe that he thinks the Jets/Browns are more likely to make the playoffs than the Bills.. but I guess thats my bias showing.
Browns are much better than the Bills right now.

#17 Nanker

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 03:11 PM

View Posteball, on 10 July 2013 - 02:57 PM, said:

Couple of points upon which my reasoning is based:

1 -- I still believe Manuel will be the opening day starter, and whatever he lacks in experience compared to Fitz he will more than make up for with his accuracy, the ability to actually throw the ball more than 20 yards, and his running/athleticism.

2 -- The defense had talent last year but was the most horribly coached unit in all of football.  Pettine WILL be a huge upgrade.

If I'm wrong, we all lose.

Pretty much how I think about how they're set up for this year.
QB HAS to be better for the lone fact that every QB on this roster can chuck the rock 50+ yards in the air downfield. That's about 35 more yards than Fitz (though I liked him as a person) could muster. We thought of him as a field general, but Chad Pennington had a similar noodle arm and did a lot more than Fitz did. I'll take the rookie mistakes over Fitz's veteran mistakes and lack of athleticism and give a better grade at QB right now than we've had here in years.
And with respect to the Defense... Wannstedt should change his name to Wannstet because he has NO business being anywhere near a D at all.

#18 Big C

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 03:41 PM

View Posteball, on 10 July 2013 - 02:39 PM, said:

I keep coming back to the fact the Bills won 6 last year and lost 4 others at the end of the 4th quarter.  The coaching and QB play was substandard.

New coaches, new QB -- I guess I'm figuring they won't be worse.

The season definitely came down to poor coaching and QB play. Some of those loses came down to one play (2nd game against NE, Tennessee, STL). We could have easily been a 9-7 team if the plays went our way, and that was with poor coaching and QB play. As long as our replacements prove to be an upgrade, I say we have a decent shot at a winning season. At the very least, I see us being better than 6-10.

#19 swnybillsfan

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 04:02 PM

View PostNanker, on 10 July 2013 - 03:11 PM, said:

Pretty much how I think about how they're set up for this year.
QB HAS to be better for the lone fact that every QB on this roster can chuck the rock 50+ yards in the air downfield. That's about 35 more yards than Fitz (though I liked him as a person) could muster. We thought of him as a field general, but Chad Pennington had a similar noodle arm and did a lot more than Fitz did. I'll take the rookie mistakes over Fitz's veteran mistakes and lack of athleticism and give a better grade at QB right now than we've had here in years.
And with respect to the Defense... Wannstedt should change his name to Wannstet because he has NO business being anywhere near a D at all.
that's all well and good but what the hell's he gonna do with his first name?

#20 Just in Atlanta

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Posted 10 July 2013 - 04:13 PM

This guy is obsessed with the fumble recovery rate, which I've never even heard of. Seems like a random thing to be even a small basis for determining a team's success. It's about as arbitrary as the dropped passes using two hands rate.

(I would say, however, that with a more aggressive DC, and heavier reliance on the run, and a quarterback who can throw accurately, which we appear to have, our FRR, as I'm dubbing it, should improve massively.)

We will see a different D. Wannstache could be the worst coordinator ever. And with a new QB, and an army of speedy wide receivers, and using Spiller and Jackson to their full ability, anything is possible.