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Byrds INT count is padded...


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#1 quinnearlysghost88

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 01:03 PM

Byrds INT stats tell an interesting story. Especially how different his '09 season was vs '10-'12.

My argument is that '09 is an anomaly and his 3-5 INTs per season are a truer gauge. Also interesting, Byrd doesn't have interceptions vs "elite" QBs or even "Top 10" qbs (unless you're considering M. Schaub) Here are all of the QBs Byrd has intercepted in his career, sometimes multiple times. It's a who's-who of back-ups.

Delhomme
D.Anderson
Sanchez
V. Young
Cassel
Tannehill
Tebow
Beck
Skelton
Kolb
Henne
Schaub


Some more random INT stats. Note the difference between '09 vs '10/'11/'12

2009:  

Interceptions (he had 9)
8 of his INTs were in a 5 game span; 6 in a 3 game span.
4 INTs when score was +/-8 for Bills.
5 first half INTs.
5 INTs when the game was tied
Tied for 1st in 2009 in INTs with 4 other players.

2010-2012: Late-game interceptions, most of the time caused by poor throws. Usually leading when INT happens. Vs poor/average QBs.

2012:
Interceptions (he had 5)
-Never had an interception when we were behind (4 when winning; 1 when tied)
-All of his interceptions were 1st/2nd/3rd and 6+ yds
-Four interceptions in the 4th Q and one in OT. None in 1st/2nd/3rd Q.
-2 on ARI (5-11) [biggest game, one setting up GW FG];
1 on MIA (7-9)[Tannehill overthrow, iced game];
1 on KC (2-14) [garbage time INT in final minute];
1 on JAC (2-14) [garbage time INT in final minute]
-Tied for 7th in 2012 for INTs with 4 other players, including London Fletcher.

2011
Interceptions (he had 3)
-1 on DEN (Tebow poor throw)
-1 on WAS (Beck overthrows)
-1 on NYJ (Sanchez overthrows)
-Never had an interception when we were behind
-Tied for 37th in 2011 for INTs.

2010:
Interceptions (he had 1 for a TD)
-1 on NYJ
-Tied for 125th

#2 26CornerBlitz

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 01:04 PM

OMG, Here we go!

#3 quinnearlysghost88

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 01:09 PM

I didn't use "ya know or like" once

#4 uncle flap

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 01:13 PM

Wow that was a lot of work to prove... what, exactly?

Guess what? Elite QBs don't throw a lot of interceptions in the first place, so of course you'd expect Byrd (and anyone else) to have little to no interceptions thrown by top tier QBs.

Also, even saying 3-5 is a better gauge- well that's not too shabby. 5 INTs will consistently get in the top 10 INT leaders. Not top 10 INTs for safeties, but INTs for defenders period.

Ya know, like, Byrd should just drop those "meaningless" INTs. I mean the QB was probably just trying to pad Byrd's stats in a game they were likely to lose anyway.

Quick- somebody check if Parker represents any of those QBs!

#5 Best Player Available

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 01:14 PM

So you know, like, in conclusion whadda sayin? Byrd sucks? or just another Aaron Williams will be better post....

Yea, Byrd int's are padded. Really? Or are you just trolling?

I think trolling!

#6 HamSandwhich

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 01:14 PM

So, if he gets an interception when we are leading it doesnt count for much is what you're saying?  How about when we're up by 6 with 2 mins or less to play and he gets an INT?  What then?  Still doesn't count for much?

#7 PromoTheRobot

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 01:15 PM

DBs don't get to pick who they play against.  It's NFL.  Everyone is capable of beating you if you don't play your best.

PTR

#8 Nanker

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 01:16 PM

I'm gonna need a padded cell before this Byrd crap is over.

#9 quinnearlysghost88

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 01:19 PM

View Postuncle flap, on 16 July 2013 - 01:13 PM, said:

Wow that was a lot of work to prove... what, exactly?

Guess what? Elite QBs don't throw a lot of interceptions in the first place, so of course you'd expect Byrd (and anyone else) to have little to no interceptions thrown by top tier QBs.

Not that I want to get into this, but the top 10 QBs from last year threw a combined 114 INTs. http://espn.go.com/n...arterbackRating

There are plenty to go around. And when you face Brady 8 times, I think he's had his fair shots.

And can I just take a step back. I'm not putting Byrd on trial or making ANY conclusions. I just found this interesting.

#10 26CornerBlitz

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 01:20 PM

View PostNanker, on 16 July 2013 - 01:16 PM, said:

I'm gonna need a padded cell before this Byrd crap is over.

:lol:

#11 Hazed and Amuzed

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 01:22 PM

What a stupid topic.

#12 uncle flap

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 01:29 PM

View Postquinnearlysghost88, on 16 July 2013 - 01:19 PM, said:

Not that I want to get into this, but the top 10 QBs from last year threw a combined 114 INTs. http://espn.go.com/n...arterbackRating

There are plenty to go around. And when you face Brady 8 times, I think he's had his fair shots.

And can I just take a step back. I'm not putting Byrd on trial or making ANY conclusions. I just found this interesting.

Well, you shouldn't want to get into it. I don't want to either, but I'm sure I can find stats that more than refute your "analysis." Is there some DB that thrives on intercepting top-tier QBs?

You seem to be saying that Byrd isn't as good as conventional wisdom suggests because his INTs stem from not so good QBs. You say the opportunities are there, yet you made no comparison to any other players. Does Weedle have lots of picks against top tier QBs?

That's like saying Mario had 10 sacks but 7 of them were coverage sacks, and then not offering what the typical percentage of all sacks are "coverage sacks."


I think you are putting Byrd on trial and your thread title implies your conclusion: Byrd's INT count is padded. I didn't write that, you did.

#13 nucci

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 01:33 PM

View Postquinnearlysghost88, on 16 July 2013 - 01:09 PM, said:

I didn't use "ya know or like" once
No but you started a new Byrd thread when there is one almost 60 pages long.

#14 BuffaloBob

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 01:35 PM

Well, whatever you want to say about his stats, they do not support making him the highest paid safety in the NFL.

#15 DC Tom

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 01:40 PM

View Postuncle flap, on 16 July 2013 - 01:13 PM, said:

Wow that was a lot of work to prove... what, exactly?

I don't know, exactly.  But whatever it was, he proved the ever-lovin' **** out of it.

#16 quinnearlysghost88

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 01:43 PM

View Postuncle flap, on 16 July 2013 - 01:29 PM, said:

Well, you shouldn't want to get into it. I don't want to either, but I'm sure I can find stats that more than refute your "analysis." Is there some DB that thrives on intercepting top-tier QBs?

Okay. So what's the measuring stick? And I don't know if there is some DB that thrives on INTs of top-tier QBs. I'm just stating that Byrd excels at soley INTing the bottom 10. Which you can say means nothing but, to me, pads his stats a bit as John Beck and Sanchez throw you pop-fly gifts.

#17 JR in Pittsburgh

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 01:48 PM

OP: these are interesting observations.

But I would like to know whether guys like Goldson and Weddle shake out similarly. I bet they do, because my sense is that the reason that guys typically get picks is because the QB throwing the ball sucks. I mean, Polamalu and Ed Reed are obviously great (and in a whole other class), but I have a feeling that picking off guys like Kelly Holcolm, Brandon Weedon, and Jeff Kitna over the years have padded their stats too.

#18 uncle flap

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 02:15 PM

View Postquinnearlysghost88, on 16 July 2013 - 01:43 PM, said:

Okay. So what's the measuring stick? And I don't know if there is some DB that thrives on INTs of top-tier QBs. I'm just stating that Byrd excels at soley INTing the bottom 10. Which you can say means nothing but, to me, pads his stats a bit as John Beck and Sanchez throw you pop-fly gifts.

While I appreciate your somewhat sophisticated breakdown of the stats - they are indeed closer to the "eye ball test," than simply looking at the numbers- I wasn't claiming to have a superior measuring stick. I just think that your measuring stick- or at least the subsequent conclusion-  isn't very good. I don't mean any offense, and apologize for the snark upthread.

I look for stats that support the ol' "eye ball test." My eyes tell me Byrd is one of, if not the best, free safeties in the game. I also recognize that there are stats that refute my opinion, as well as those that support it.

So, take it as a cop-out if you will, but my measuring stick is based on a convergence of stats, experts' opinions, and my own eyes.

In this case, my "eyes" are telling me that you went to a lot of trouble to seek out information that supports a pre-conceived narrative.

View PostJR in Pittsburgh, on 16 July 2013 - 01:48 PM, said:

OP: these are interesting observations.

But I would like to know whether guys like Goldson and Weddle shake out similarly. I bet they do, because my sense is that the reason that guys typically get picks is because the QB throwing the ball sucks. I mean, Polamalu and Ed Reed are obviously great (and in a whole other class), but I have a feeling that picking off guys like Kelly Holcolm, Brandon Weedon, and Jeff Kitna over the years have padded their stats too.

Not only that, but it could certainly be the case that, although they throw their fair share of INTs, top-tier QBs avoid throwing toward top-tier defenders.

Edited by uncle flap, 16 July 2013 - 02:13 PM.


#19 quinnearlysghost88

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 02:29 PM

View Postuncle flap, on 16 July 2013 - 02:15 PM, said:

In this case, my "eyes" are telling me that you went to a lot of trouble to seek out information that supports a pre-conceived narrative. Not only that, but it could certainly be the case that, although they throw their fair share of INTs, top-tier QBs avoid throwing toward top-tier defenders.

Right, well I guess it's hard to refute an eye-ball test. But you say, "Top-tier QBs avoid throwing toward top-tier defenders," so is there a whole subset of middle- to lower-tier defenders that are scooping up these 114 INTs? And, if so, are INTs an arbitrary stat to use in measuring an effective secondary player?

#20 SBUffalo

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Posted 16 July 2013 - 02:51 PM

That's like saying "Peyton Manning's superbowl win stats are padded because he beat Rex Grossman."


Guess what elite players are supposed to do... Play well against inferior opponents. Jairus does that. Maybe next time he can just swat those balls down instead so you can get a "more realistic" number...