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Gilmore Matchups this year - "I want to go against the best"


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#1 MClem06

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Posted 22 July 2013 - 09:10 AM

Week 1 & Week 17  - Danny Amendola -  Speed is his main asset so Gilmore will have to jam him up at the line on every play so he can't use the quick cuts he's known for to get open. All in all i can see Gilmore having issues with his speed but physically Gilmore wins this battle.  Prediction 5 catches week 1 for 60 yds 1 TD, week 17 (brady sits due to playoffs being clenched.. I know , i know f-that) 4 catches - 45 yds No TDS.

Week 2 - Steve Smith - Steve is still dangerous at 34 years old but his age will show in this match up.   Maybe he goes over the top for a few longer passes from cam or due to his crisp routes, he may be positioned to go 50/50 against gilmore in 1 on 1 battles and that would be optimistic for Smith's numbers.  6 catches for 85 yds no TDS.

Week 3 & Week 11 - Stephen Hill -  This is going to be an interesting matchup since both are physical and both are on the incline.  Hill still isn't 100% polished on his routes but Gilmore has the edge in coverage.  Week 3 Hill hits a deep route and goes the distance 1 play for 80 yds then is pretty much blanketed the remainder of the game  5 catches for 113 yds 1 TD.  Week 11 Gilmore has grown into his game by now shaken off whatever rust was there and locks down Hill for 2 catches 35 yds No TDS.  We crush the Jets hopes in the division and win our second game against them.

Week 4 - It's going to be interesting to see who they match Gilmore up with in this game.  Jacoby Jones has the bigger frame at 6'2 215lbs, or do they put him up against their burner Torrey Smith 6'0 205?  I'm going to say they line him up against Smith since he's gotten more targets but i see McKelvin having trouble this week against Jones.   Either way, Torrey puts up numbers with Flaco but expect Flaco to look at the mismatch versus McKelvin and targeting that side of the field for 80% of his passes.   That being said Torrey Still manages to get over 100 yds and possibly 2 tds against Gilmore. This unfortunately is going to be a slaughter all around and we lose in undeniably the worst game of the season for us.  

Week5  - With Josh Gordon and Greg Little getting a pretty even number of targets last year (96 vs 91 respectively) There really is no stand out number 1 in Cleveland.  Davon Bess will be their slot guy and in my opinion will be the interesting matchup of the week.  He's going to be creating mismatches in the slot with whoever lines up opposite of him.  Look to them to target Bess more than either outside reciever with short underneath passes.   Whoever they line up Gilmore against which i would suspect is Gordon, he completely blankets him the entire game.  2 catches 24 yds no tds.

Week 6 - AJ Green is without a doubt one of Gilmore's toughest matchups of the season outside of week 13's match up against Julio Jones. Overall this game will be exciting and close in numbers for both teams.  Green will continue his tear as one of the best recievers in the league.  Last year he put up 12 gains of 25 plus yds and was top 10 in yds after the catch.We lose this game by a field goal at the buzzer, AJ puts up 100+ yds and 2 TD's but most yards coming from after the catch.  

Week 7 & Week 16- Wallace twice in one season should bolster Miami's numbers but not right off the bat as the new recruit to Miami will struggle getting rhythm with Tannehill.  I can see Wallace getting deep balls over/underthrown and getting really frustrated.   2 picks for gilmore this game as the Bills win a close game 24-20.  Wallace puts up a meek 50 yd no td game.   Week 16 after an entire season of work, Miami will be fighting Buffalo for the Wildcard at this point, Wallace tightens up and opens up on us for 80 yds and 2 tds. I'm not going to say who wins this game cause i just don't want to put that out there since i'm a superstitious fan.  Should be an exciting game to watch.  But keeping with Gilmore, a lot of physicality at the line against Wallace and the two TD's come from within the 20 yd line.   Although he won't let any deep plays in, Wallace wins underneath with more passes coming 10-15 yds from scrimmage.

Week 8 - Look for Brees to stretch the field but spread the ball around.  Since the match up is uneven at this point with Colston getting a big advantage on height, Gilmore makes up for it with technique and surprisingly only gives up 50 yds to Colston with 1 TD being a fade route from the 10 yd line.   I would expect the trouble in this game to come from the middle of the field with Brees looking for his tight end Graham  quite often.  I'd love to say we stick in there with them but I see our defense having major issues covering the entire field.  Brees picks us apart here and throws for 280 yds and 3 TDS. One loss I can almost gaurantee bieng that it is also an away game.

Week 9 - Bowe signed a huge contract and to follow a pattern, players that sign big contracts usually have a below average year to follow.  This is one of the most dominant games you'll see Gilmore play.  Completely makes Bowe his bitch and holds him to 1 catch for 12 yards.  In fact, I expect EJ to be in by now and put up his first big game.  I wouldn't guess at numbers here but it's going to be a confidence booster leading us into the final half of the season.   Gilmore comes away with two picks in a blowout win.

Week 10 - Rothlesburger is known for making average recievers look like Canton candidates.   Antonio Brown is dangerous but the man throwing the ball makes him better than he actually is.   Expect Rothlesburger to thread it into tight quarters making it harder for Gilmore to use technique here.   Tight breaks and tight windows puts a count of 9 recieptions to the tune of 110 yds and at least 1 TD.  Our offense struggles to start but comes back to make it close in the end.  Again not saying which way I go here because i really think we bring this to a close game in the end.

Week13 - As mentioned earlier, tied for the toughest matchup of the season, Julio Jones is a true test for Gilmore's elite status.  It's going to be near impossible to keep him from making plays but if anyone can keep Jones to a sub par game it's Gilmore.   Given that it's later in the season i say his chances for doing so are better than if this was week 1.  It's a toss up at this point given that Atlanta will still be gunning for the playoffs and playing at a high level at this point in the season.  Buffalo will unfortunately not be able to maintain against them and this is a bad home loss for us.  I will say this, if this season is the season for playoffs, this could be a miracle game at home with one that would go down as the year's biggest upset.   To maintain the optimistic approach, we give them more of a challenge than they came in expecting.

Week 14 - Vincent Jackson.  I have to say that Jackson never comes off as the type that is a true burner. He's got more technique than anything and always seems to find open holes in the defense.  With Pettine's new strategy of aggressiveness on the line, we commit too many bodies to the blitz leaving one on ones on the outside with Jackson and Williams working off each other.  Like in previous weeks, teams game plan for Gilmore's abilities and target the other side of the field more often.  Williams will be the one putting up numbers this week with Gilmore playing hard and shutting down his side for 60 yds no TDS.  Another Tight game but we will be victorious and give us the confidence we need to make the playoff push.  

Week 15 - Expect J-Ville to pound us with MJD and the run game since that's their one and only talent.  We committ more to the box to stop the run but our corners and secondary lock it up against them and Gilmore shuts down Blackmon since they also throw 2 INTs his way with crappy QB play.  2 catches 30 yds.  NO TDS.

Hope you guys enjoyed reading this and if you made it this far thanks for listening to my opinions.  GO BILLS!!

#2 RuntheDamnBall

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Posted 22 July 2013 - 09:27 AM

Thanks for putting this together.

I think one thing you've highlighted is that just about any of these games can be close.  I have a feeling they can probably put Gilmore on an island most of the time, but I am not sure that will allow them to mask some of the other deficiencies, inexperience being foremost among them.

#3 Best Player Available

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Posted 22 July 2013 - 09:32 AM

he has too, who else would they put out there? McKelvin?
If he can stop the penalties he can do the job.

#4 Mark80

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Posted 22 July 2013 - 09:33 AM

So you're saying that Gilmore will be giving up 70 Receptions for 1100 yards and 12 TDs?  I had to fill in some of my own numbers based on your predictions as you only predicted full numbers in 75% or so of the cases.  I think you're way off and he's going to be much more "shut down" than you're projecting.  I see more in the range of 50 Receptions for 750 and 4 TDs and a possible Pro Bowl nod.

#5 HamSandwhich

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Posted 22 July 2013 - 09:42 AM

View PostMark80, on 22 July 2013 - 09:33 AM, said:

So you're saying that Gilmore will be giving up 70 Receptions for 1100 yards and 12 TDs?  I had to fill in some of my own numbers based on your predictions as you only predicted full numbers in 75% or so of the cases.  I think you're way off and he's going to be much more "shut down" than you're projecting.  I see more in the range of 50 Receptions for 750 and 4 TDs and a possible Pro Bowl nod.

This.  I've heard of problems in the sophomore years, however, this would be epic fail in the second year.  I'd have to believe this won't be the case or we're doomed!

#6 MClem06

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Posted 22 July 2013 - 09:45 AM

I didn't put up numbers on the Against Julio but without the numbers against julio in 16 games I had 954 yds against.  That's an average of 59.25 yds against per game.   If you add in 80-110 for Julio, thats 66 yds average against.   Anyone know what the average is against DB's ?  My TD's against may be off but we'll see at the end of the season.   If you can pin point which games i've pointed out with Scores against that you can reason why that wouldn't happen against that particular receiver I'd love to hear your opinions.  But at this point I still stand by my opinions on the numbers I assessed.   I hope I'm way off on TD's but just looking at who the receivers are he's facing I hate to say I'd be close but we have a whole season to see how it plays out.   I will repost how far off or close i was at the end of the regular season.

#7 FluffHead

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Posted 22 July 2013 - 09:47 AM

So you're basically saying Gilmore will be burnt toast all season?  Those numbers seem high...

#8 Mark80

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Posted 22 July 2013 - 10:02 AM

View PostMClem06, on 22 July 2013 - 09:45 AM, said:

I didn't put up numbers on the Against Julio but without the numbers against julio in 16 games I had 954 yds against.  That's an average of 59.25 yds against per game.   If you add in 80-110 for Julio, thats 66 yds average against.   Anyone know what the average is against DB's ?  My TD's against may be off but we'll see at the end of the season.   If you can pin point which games i've pointed out with Scores against that you can reason why that wouldn't happen against that particular receiver I'd love to hear your opinions.  But at this point I still stand by my opinions on the numbers I assessed.   I hope I'm way off on TD's but just looking at who the receivers are he's facing I hate to say I'd be close but we have a whole season to see how it plays out.   I will repost how far off or close i was at the end of the regular season.

Well, you can start with Hill in week 3.  5/113/1.  Who, exactly, is going to be throwing him these balls?  Sanchez?  Smith?  Namath?  No freaking way.  Take out the week one travesty last season and Hill has exactly 16 receptions for 163 yards and 1 TD in his CAREER!  Torrey Smith 100+ yards and 2 TDs?  I don't think so.  I feel you (and the Ravens) severely underestimate the importance of Bolden).  Mike Wallace will go down as one of the worst FA signings of the off season and he'll be lucky to get over 50 yards in either game.  Tanny is no Big Ben on any level.  You also have Antonio Brown going 9/110/1.  Brown had exactly 0 100 yard games last season and 9 receptions would tie a career high for him.  Crazy.  Only 2 receivers will have a legitimate shot to break 100, AJ and Julio, I think only one of them does it.  Of course, some other receiver could, but you're listing 4 over 100 yard games (and 5 if you include Julio).  That's just nuts, sorry.

Edited by Mark80, 22 July 2013 - 10:10 AM.


#9 MClem06

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Posted 22 July 2013 - 10:13 AM

That's why this is a forum , I'll admit looking back at the post and with the arguments posted that I was over on yardage. Just trying out something different other than the other people posting why they think the Bills are going to go sub .500.   I figured a match up scenario would start up good conversation.  I stand corrected on stats but that's why I started the thread hoping to drum up others interest on what the stats would be like in each game against Gilmore.   It's all subjective.  I don't think he'll be burnt toast but he's vulnerable against certain receiver/QB combinations.   I would like to revisit the Pittsburgh game after they play because I do believe that Brown is a bigger threat than you think.    On the Jets games, I think they will undergo a QB transition mid season to Smith and Smith will prove to be better than Sanchez.  Hill is just dangerous and that's all I meant by the numbers.  He has the capability if the ball is there to put up those figures.

#10 Mark80

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Posted 22 July 2013 - 10:23 AM

View PostMClem06, on 22 July 2013 - 10:13 AM, said:

That's why this is a forum , I'll admit looking back at the post and with the arguments posted that I was over on yardage. Just trying out something different other than the other people posting why they think the Bills are going to go sub .500.   I figured a match up scenario would start up good conversation.  I stand corrected on stats but that's why I started the thread hoping to drum up others interest on what the stats would be like in each game against Gilmore.   It's all subjective.  I don't think he'll be burnt toast but he's vulnerable against certain receiver/QB combinations.   I would like to revisit the Pittsburgh game after they play because I do believe that Brown is a bigger threat than you think.    On the Jets games, I think they will undergo a QB transition mid season to Smith and Smith will prove to be better than Sanchez.  Hill is just dangerous and that's all I meant by the numbers.  He has the capability if the ball is there to put up those figures.

It's definitely nice to get a different conversation going around here, no doubt.  On the Jets front, if you actually watch Geno Smith highlights (not to mention complete games) you will easily see that most of his yardage and big plays came from short screens and shuffle passes to his array of nasty weapons.  His attitude, leadership qualities, aloofness, and misleading numbers led me to believe that he is just the continuation of the debacle that has become the Jets, and I love it.  Way back when, when Geno skipped the Senior Bowl I mentioned in that thread that he is really only a 50/50 shot at being a first rounder and that it was a mistake to skip the Bowl.  Plenty of posters claimed I was nuts at that time and that he was a lock to go in the first, if not first overall.  Well, we all know how that played out.  So, don't worry about being called nuts or crazy, maybe you'll be able to smirk when it's all over as well!

#11 NoSaint

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Posted 22 July 2013 - 10:28 AM

View PostMark80, on 22 July 2013 - 10:23 AM, said:



It's definitely nice to get a different conversation going around here, no doubt.  On the Jets front, if you actually watch Geno Smith highlights (not to mention complete games) you will easily see that most of his yardage and big plays came from short screens and shuffle passes to his array of nasty weapons.  His attitude, leadership qualities, aloofness, and misleading numbers led me to believe that he is just the continuation of the debacle that has become the Jets, and I love it.  Way back when, when Geno skipped the Senior Bowl I mentioned in that thread that he is really only a 50/50 shot at being a first rounder and that it was a mistake to skip the Bowl.  Plenty of posters claimed I was nuts at that time and that he was a lock to go in the first, if not first overall.  Well, we all know how that played out.  So, don't worry about being called nuts or crazy, maybe you'll be able to smirk when it's all over as well!

you got it - count me among those that thought hed be in the top half of the first

#12 MClem06

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Posted 22 July 2013 - 10:38 AM

Thanks for the understanding, sparking controversy is why this board exists. I also love the turmoil that has ensued with the Jets and Pats offseason have been the best I can remember as far as negative impact.   I really hope that our rivalry with Miami heats up.  Everyone knows that most of their fans are fair-weather bastards and the only time that the rivalry was heated was when they were good.  I live in FL and go to every Miami game.  It'll be nice to see the stadium not empty but their fans are the worst bunch of hypocritical drunks.   I have some friends that are Miami fans that even will tell me that's the way it is there.  They cheer for their team only when they have more wins than losses.   We cheer for our Bills and show up for them (well most of us) when they haven't made the playoffs in 13 years.  I hope they have something special with EJ.  Season can't start soon enough!

#13 Why So Serious?

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Posted 22 July 2013 - 11:58 AM

From a list perspective.

AJ Green
Julio Jones
Vincent Jackson

Are all Top 10 WRs and maybe even all Top5 depending on who you ask.

Then where there aren't Top 5 WRs. You have Top QBs. in Brees, Marsha, and Big Ben.

If you want to be the best you have to beat the best. He will get tested.

2012 was an up and down year. He would play amazing for 90% of the game then give up a couple horrible horrible plays. The good thing was, imo, it seemed like he was consistently abused on double moves where the QB pumped. Which he can worked on to improve. Most of the game though he looked pretty stud-ly though.

#14 BillnutinHouston

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Posted 22 July 2013 - 12:11 PM

I thought it has been reported that Gilmore will NOT match up with the opposing team's best receiver, but will just stay on one side of the field the entire year.  If this is true, there must be some tactical reason for it, but apparently Gilmore hasn't bought into it if he is piping up about this.

#15 section122

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Posted 22 July 2013 - 12:11 PM

Amendolas week 17 numbers: 0 catches 0 yards.
No way he isn't on ir by then. (Tongue firmly in cheek)

#16 jboyst62

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Posted 22 July 2013 - 01:42 PM

The numbers are way off. When I get home I'll help you can out

Plus. I am not worried about the Ravens early in the season.

#17 Meatloaf Sandwich

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Posted 22 July 2013 - 01:45 PM

I am not worried one bit about Gilmore. He was one of the top CB last year and that is when young CBs struggle.

By the end of the season we will be saying Gilmore's Island.

Edited by BuffaloFood, 22 July 2013 - 01:49 PM.


#18 C.Biscuit97

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Posted 22 July 2013 - 01:59 PM

http://www.nfl.com/n...stephon-gilmore

Word's out

Edited by C.Biscuit97, 22 July 2013 - 01:59 PM.


#19 Luxy312

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Posted 22 July 2013 - 02:00 PM

Gilmore followed around the top receivers on opposing teams all last year.  While he had struggles here and there making typical rookie mistakes, he was the defacto best defensive back on this team.  I don't see this season being any different.  The initial estimate of yards and touchdowns seems extremely high and the estimates for some of these players is a joke.  The biggest question is whether the Bills figure out how to limit opposing teams from running the ball.  If they can't do that, it doesn't matter whether Gilmore gives up 1,200 + 11 or 700 + 4.  They still lose.

#20 josh1408

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Posted 22 July 2013 - 03:30 PM

View PostMark80, on 22 July 2013 - 09:33 AM, said:

So you're saying that Gilmore will be giving up 70 Receptions for 1100 yards and 12 TDs?  I had to fill in some of my own numbers based on your predictions as you only predicted full numbers in 75% or so of the cases.  I think you're way off and he's going to be much more "shut down" than you're projecting.  I see more in the range of 50 Receptions for 750 and 4 TDs and a possible Pro Bowl nod.
i agree with you on this! gilmore was rusty first coulpe of game but after that he was in shut down mode!!!!