Jump to content


What % chance does the 2013 EJ/Austin trade down...


  • Please log in to reply
25 replies to this topic

#1 OCinBuffalo

OCinBuffalo

    This...for the first 6 games he plays

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 7,457 posts

Posted 01 August 2013 - 02:37 AM

have, right now, of being the 2nd most lopsided in draft history? I would say it can never be #1, because of the Mike Ditka/Ricky Williams Saints Fiasco. It's hard to top that(or the contuining idiocy of all teams involved see here: http://nfltrades.tum...kywilliamstrade). :lol: However, what is #2? And, what potential does this have to be known historically as #2, right now, today?

First the disclaimers:
#1. Yes, we know we are talking about rookies who haven't played a down in a real game. The question at hand: based on what we've already seen happen, in this short period of time, what is the probability that this trade is already looking to be a :o, historically? And, what chance does it have of being 2nd all-time?
#2. Yes, we know that many things can happen between now and 3 years from now, and we also know that you don't evaluate drafts until 3 years from now. We also know that water is wet. None of this is useful, as the question is about estimating a %, not speaking in absolutes.
#3. I am calling the "TJ McDonald @71 for Marquise Goodwin @78" aspect of this a wash. Of course lots can happen, and if you think it will either way, this should affect your % chance prediction. If you think it's a wash long term, then it doesn't affect you at all. The reason I am calling it a wash? I'm seeing the same coverage of both players = probably going to contribute sooner rather than later.

Next the facts. The entire trade boils down to us getting:
EJ Manuel QB
Kiko Alonso ILB
Marquise Goodwin WR
Chris Cragg TE

They got:
Tavon Austin WR
TJ McDonald S

If you pay attention to the reports about our guys, and sorta average them out:
You might have noticed a pattern: "Gragg is a name to watch" sums it up. But, when everybody knows you are sleeper? You ain't. The point of the term sleeper = you will surprise some people. If everybody knows you will surprise, who is left to be surprised?

We already know Alonso is the starter, wearing the radio, and that was a major story in OTAs. He surprised. He won the job outright, right then. There hasn't been much more to say. Except this: Kiko is already rated as the 101st best Defensive player in the league, out of 352 starters? http://espn.go.com/f...fensive-players :blink: Without playing a down? Ahead of Alec Olgetree @ 108(ahem, 30th overall pick in 2013, ILB, picked by Rams :lol:...so does that mean we've done them twice, with one pick?)? It's not just these guys saying it. I have a hard time with ranking Alonso at all right now, but, it ain't me doing it(so don't yell at me).

We know what is being said about EJ. For lack of a better standard: Regression towards the mean-->what is the value of a solid WR, compared to that of a solid QB?

Meanwhile, you could basically substitute what is being said about TJ Graham, or Robert Woods, or even Goodwin/ Da'Rick Rogers, for what is being said about Tavon Austin. People are happy with him, but aren't going bonkers for the guy. His coverage reminds me of the same thing Alonso is getting: "we know he's good, we'll see what happens, not much else to report".

Given this, you could probably make a straight up trade, right now, Alonso for Austin, and feel ok, maybe not good, about it, right?

But a trade for Alonso, Gragg AND EJ for Austin though? :lol: Even with the above disclaimers? Yeah, that's starting to look very unfair.

My %? I'd say that this trade, today, already has a 30-40% chance of being the 2nd most lopsided draft day trade of all time. The difference between this and the Ricky Williams trade might be: the unfairness doesn't come from ego-->stupidity.

If anything, it may simply come from the job the Bills did using the draft picks they got. With the Rams, while also doing a good job with the picks they got, ultimately rogering themselves, by giving away the chance to draft more players, for the chance to draft 1. Or, will it be as simple as: mistakenly bowing to the pressure to sell tickets in the short term?

#2 Dragonborn10

Dragonborn10

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,280 posts

Posted 01 August 2013 - 05:32 AM

Manuel never dominated in the ACC.  Goodwin runs track.  Alonso may be a slightly bigger less frail version of Poz - too slow.  Cragg is another in a long line of low round TE's that suck.  He survives he cut only because Chandler is coming off injury and Lee Smith is so bad he doesn't even fit into an NFL uniform.

Other than that trade of the century!

#3 Beerball

Beerball

    Things happen...

  • Global Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 33,315 posts

Posted 01 August 2013 - 05:55 AM

I disagree, three reasons really:
You are talking about rookies who haven't played a down in a real game.
Many things can happen between now and 3 years from now, you don't evaluate drafts until 3 years from now.
I'm confused about the third reason. 0:)

#4 ganesh

ganesh

    You can do things on a football field that are severely illegal

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 8,877 posts

Posted 01 August 2013 - 06:00 AM

Also, how can you forget the famous Herschel Walker trade that turned into  THREE Super Bowls for the Dallas Cowboys in four years......I think that beats even the Ricky Williams trade.

#5 xsoldier54

xsoldier54

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,526 posts

Posted 01 August 2013 - 06:14 AM

View PostDadonkadonk, on 01 August 2013 - 05:32 AM, said:

Manuel never dominated in the ACC.  Goodwin runs track.  Alonso may be a slightly bigger less frail version of Poz - too slow.  Cragg is another in a long line of low round TE's that suck.  He survives he cut only because Chandler is coming off injury and Lee Smith is so bad he doesn't even fit into an NFL uniform.

Other than that trade of the century!
That's what I love about this board.  It's the unbridled optimism. :thumbsup:

#6 OCinBuffalo

OCinBuffalo

    This...for the first 6 games he plays

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 7,457 posts

Posted 01 August 2013 - 06:24 AM

View PostBeerball, on 01 August 2013 - 05:55 AM, said:

I disagree, three reasons really:
You are talking about rookies who haven't played a down in a real game.
Many things can happen between now and 3 years from now, you don't evaluate drafts until 3 years from now.
I'm confused about the third reason. 0:)
Pfft.

And they say Mods can't troll. :lol:

View Postganesh, on 01 August 2013 - 06:00 AM, said:

Also, how can you forget the famous Herschel Walker trade that turned into  THREE Super Bowls for the Dallas Cowboys in four years......I think that beats even the Ricky Williams trade.
Was that a draft trade? I really don't know. I knew about it, but I didn't think it was a draft trade.

#7 Mr. WEO

Mr. WEO

    All Pro

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12,119 posts

Posted 01 August 2013 - 07:08 AM

View PostOCinBuffalo, on 01 August 2013 - 02:37 AM, said:

have, right now, of being the 2nd most lopsided in draft history? I would say it can never be #1, because of the Mike Ditka/Ricky Williams Saints Fiasco. It's hard to top that(or the contuining idiocy of all teams involved see here: http://nfltrades.tum...kywilliamstrade). :lol: However, what is #2? And, what potential does this have to be known historically as #2, right now, today?

First the disclaimers:
#1. Yes, we know we are talking about rookies who haven't played a down in a real game. The question at hand: based on what we've already seen happen, in this short period of time, what is the probability that this trade is already looking to be a :o, historically? And, what chance does it have of being 2nd all-time?
#2. Yes, we know that many things can happen between now and 3 years from now, and we also know that you don't evaluate drafts until 3 years from now. We also know that water is wet. None of this is useful, as the question is about estimating a %, not speaking in absolutes.
#3. I am calling the "TJ McDonald @71 for Marquise Goodwin @78" aspect of this a wash. Of course lots can happen, and if you think it will either way, this should affect your % chance prediction. If you think it's a wash long term, then it doesn't affect you at all. The reason I am calling it a wash? I'm seeing the same coverage of both players = probably going to contribute sooner rather than later.

Next the facts. The entire trade boils down to us getting:
EJ Manuel QB
Kiko Alonso ILB
Marquise Goodwin WR
Chris Cragg TE

They got:
Tavon Austin WR
TJ McDonald S

If you pay attention to the reports about our guys, and sorta average them out:
You might have noticed a pattern: "Gragg is a name to watch" sums it up. But, when everybody knows you are sleeper? You ain't. The point of the term sleeper = you will surprise some people. If everybody knows you will surprise, who is left to be surprised?

We already know Alonso is the starter, wearing the radio, and that was a major story in OTAs. He surprised. He won the job outright, right then. There hasn't been much more to say. Except this: Kiko is already rated as the 101st best Defensive player in the league, out of 352 starters? http://espn.go.com/f...fensive-players :blink: Without playing a down? Ahead of Alec Olgetree @ 108(ahem, 30th overall pick in 2013, ILB, picked by Rams :lol:...so does that mean we've done them twice, with one pick?)? It's not just these guys saying it. I have a hard time with ranking Alonso at all right now, but, it ain't me doing it(so don't yell at me).

We know what is being said about EJ. For lack of a better standard: Regression towards the mean-->what is the value of a solid WR, compared to that of a solid QB?

Meanwhile, you could basically substitute what is being said about TJ Graham, or Robert Woods, or even Goodwin/ Da'Rick Rogers, for what is being said about Tavon Austin. People are happy with him, but aren't going bonkers for the guy. His coverage reminds me of the same thing Alonso is getting: "we know he's good, we'll see what happens, not much else to report".

Given this, you could probably make a straight up trade, right now, Alonso for Austin, and feel ok, maybe not good, about it, right?

But a trade for Alonso, Gragg AND EJ for Austin though? :lol: Even with the above disclaimers? Yeah, that's starting to look very unfair.

My %? I'd say that this trade, today, already has a 30-40% chance of being the 2nd most lopsided draft day trade of all time. The difference between this and the Ricky Williams trade might be: the unfairness doesn't come from ego-->stupidity.

If anything, it may simply come from the job the Bills did using the draft picks they got. With the Rams, while also doing a good job with the picks they got, ultimately rogering themselves, by giving away the chance to draft more players, for the chance to draft 1. Or, will it be as simple as: mistakenly bowing to the pressure to sell tickets in the short term?

Where to start?

Let's bask in the glory of this thread.

#8 bowery4

bowery4

    "‘Chance favors the prepared mind‘’

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,510 posts

Posted 01 August 2013 - 07:13 AM

Here is one http://myclixhosting...raft-day-trades
Don't know if this will work but https://www.google.c...iw=1236&bih=587
or just google lopsided draft day trades

Quote

Jerry Rice — Wide Receiver (1985)


On the surface, the 49ers NFL draft day trade with the Patriots seemed to be a good deal for both clubs. New England traded the No. 16 overall pick in exchange for San Francisco’s No. 28 and No. 56 overall picks. The two teams also swapped third round selections.

Using our handy-dandy NFL draft value chart, we see that the 49ers came out of the deal with 1,230 points versus 1,170 for the Patriots.

Sounds like a fair trade on the surface.

But when you consider the 49ers selected Hall of Fame wide receiver Jerry Rice with the 16th overall pick, the NFL draft day trade becomes pretty lopsided in favor of San Francisco.


#9 Meatloaf Sandwich

Meatloaf Sandwich

    RFA

  • Banned
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 932 posts

Posted 01 August 2013 - 07:15 AM

What was this thread about?

I will just look at the title...
Yes 100% chance this trade happens b.c it already did.

Sorry if this doesn't happen to be what the thread is about but oh well.

Edited by BuffaloFood, 01 August 2013 - 07:16 AM.


#10 papazoid

papazoid

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,285 posts

Posted 01 August 2013 - 07:29 AM

it has a ZERO % chance of being the 2nd most lopsided trade in the history of the NFL.

#11 Mr. WEO

Mr. WEO

    All Pro

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12,119 posts

Posted 01 August 2013 - 07:39 AM

The OP wrote this, in 2012:

"Trading down is not feasible. Period. Nobody wants to pay what is required to trade up into the top 15".  He went on to mock all who suggested otherwise.

#12 thebandit27

thebandit27

    Armchair Dynasty Architect

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,913 posts

Posted 01 August 2013 - 07:40 AM

View PostDadonkadonk, on 01 August 2013 - 05:32 AM, said:

Manuel never dominated in the ACC.  Goodwin runs track.  Alonso may be a slightly bigger less frail version of Poz - too slow.  Cragg is another in a long line of low round TE's that suck.  He survives he cut only because Chandler is coming off injury and Lee Smith is so bad he doesn't even fit into an NFL uniform.

Other than that trade of the century!

I'll give you that Manuel hasn't "dominated", but he did play very well consistently.

As for Goodwin, you didn't watch much of Texas, did you?  This guy is a football player that happened to also run track, not the other way around.

Your statement on Alonso is patently false; he couldn't be any more different than Poz.  He's smaller than Poz (by about 10 lbs) and is much quicker; did you watch him at all in college?

I'm also curious about why you think Gragg (not Cragg) "sucks"?  He is a very good athlete with above-average speed for a TE.  He's 50/50 to make the roster based on physical ability alone.  As for Chandler, by all accounts he'll be 100% to start the pre-season.  Smith, well, he's mostly a blocking TE, so that comparison is apples-to-oranges.

Other than that, post of the year.

#13 papazoid

papazoid

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,285 posts

Posted 01 August 2013 - 07:48 AM

besides the Rick Williams and Herscel Walker trades:

In 1991 the Falcons traded Brett Farve to the Packers for the No. 19 overall pick in the first round of 1992 draft, and the Falcons drafted running back Tony Smith.

In 1975 the New York Giants thought they needed a quarterback and  traded their first round (#2 overall) pick to Dallas for Roger Staubach's backup, Craig Morton. Dallas drafted Randy White.

In 1983 ,the Broncos sent quarterback Mark Hermann, the rights to offensive tackle Chris Hinton, and a first-round pick in 1984 (which became guard Ron Solt), to the Baltimore Colts in exchange for John Elway's rights.

The Steelers traded a second-round pick in 1996 and a fourth-rounder in 97 for Jerome Bettis and a third-round pick.

Tampa Bay traded Steve Young to San Francisco in 1987 for second and fourth-round picks.

In 1999, the Colts sent Faulk to St. Louis in exchange for second and fifth-round picks in the upcoming Draft.

Back in 1970, the Cleveland Browns made the mistake of trading wide receiver Paul Warfield to the Miami Dolphins in exchange for a first-round pick in that year's NFL Draft.

the Saints traded Willie Roaf to the Kansas City Chiefs for a fourth-round pick in the 2003 NFL Draft.

Edited by papazoid, 01 August 2013 - 07:49 AM.


#14 NewEra

NewEra

    I don't "know", I "think"

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,612 posts

Posted 01 August 2013 - 08:07 AM

If ej and Manuel turn out to be all pros, it could be one of those lopsided trades.  I loved the trade down and loved the players we selected.  Time will tell.

The link you provided to show that Alonso is ranked as the 101st best defensive player is a fantasy chart.  It's garbage.  Alonso is 101 and.......Richard Sherman is 119.  Suh is 110.  Do they think alonso is a better defensive player than Sherman or such? No, they think he's going to score more fantasy points.  ILBs score lots of fantasy points.

#15 KD in CT

KD in CT

    Hall of Famer

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 28,168 posts

Posted 01 August 2013 - 08:38 AM

View PostMr. WEO, on 01 August 2013 - 07:08 AM, said:

Where to start?

Let's bask in the glory of this thread.

Indeed.   Behold the wonder of the thought and effort that went into this premise.   The only thing missing was a "hear me out".

#16 Homey D. Clown

Homey D. Clown

    Fielding Clown Questions

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 1,454 posts

Posted 01 August 2013 - 10:10 AM

0% chance, even if EJ and others become great players simply because this just wasn't a blockbuster trade...  trading down a few slots wasn't a gamble for either side, and that's the real issue.

No QB was seen as a 1st round pick, so dropping back a few picks was a sleep-walk in the park, no-brainer.  In fact, I think they could easily have gone further down in round 1 but hindsight is 20/20 on that.

This isn't banter or pessimism, I just don't see this as a big deal.

#17 Mr. WEO

Mr. WEO

    All Pro

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12,119 posts

Posted 01 August 2013 - 10:22 AM

View PostNewEra, on 01 August 2013 - 08:07 AM, said:

If ej and Manuel turn out to be all pros, it could be one of those lopsided trades.  I loved the trade down and loved the players we selected.  Time will tell.




It will take more than both EJ and Manuel...


View PostKD in CT, on 01 August 2013 - 08:38 AM, said:

Indeed.   Behold the wonder of the thought and effort that went into this premise.   The only thing missing was a "hear me out".

OC is certified!  Check out my sig quote....he would never say "hear me out".   He would simply say "hear me!".

Edited by Mr. WEO, 01 August 2013 - 10:22 AM.


#18 Snorom

Snorom

    RFA

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 648 posts

Posted 01 August 2013 - 10:33 AM

it won't ever be a lopsided trade. What it COULD turn out to be is the Bills using their choices wisely and St Louis not getting what they hoped for. Or even vice-versa

St Louis gave a fair trade, nothing lopsided about it. in fact many of us wanted a little more.


Lopsided trades are Herschel Walker and Ricky Williams where a plethora of picks were given up for a single marquee player

Edited by Snorom, 01 August 2013 - 10:33 AM.


#19 Astrobot

Astrobot

    TSW's Draft Droid

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 8,191 posts

Posted 01 August 2013 - 10:33 AM

Wonderful OP!

I'm happy with the trade already because I think Tavon will be another Roscoe and "Parrish" in the hard-hitting NFL. Upside individually for EJ, Kiko, and Marquise is huge, and Gragg could actually learn how to catch the football.

Edited by Astrobot, 01 August 2013 - 10:40 AM.


#20 Captain Hindsight

Captain Hindsight

    All Pro

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,276 posts

Posted 01 August 2013 - 10:36 AM

View PostSnorom, on 01 August 2013 - 10:33 AM, said:

it won't ever be a lopsided trade. What it COULD turn out to be is the Bills using their choices wisely and St Louis not getting what they hoped for. Or even vice-versa

St Louis gave a fair trade, nothing lopsided about it. in fact many of us wanted a little more.


Lopsided trades are Herschel Walker and Ricky Williams where a plethora of picks were given up for a single marquee player
Yup this was a very fair trade. Austin could turn into Deshaun Jackson and Manual could be a good starter in the NFL for a long time. The Rams already have Bradford so it makes it even more fair