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+11.5 Thoughts


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#1 IslandBillsFan

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 06:05 AM

Hello Bills Nation,

I was looking around at some NFL lines for week one and I couldn't help but notice the Bills are one of the biggest underdogs in Week 1.

As of current the Bills are getting 11.5 points.

I know the Pats should win the division and I know we should be huge underdogs.  However, I figured because we are at home and we are still in Week 1 and figuring things out I thought the spread would be around 7.5 to 8.5.

I also think the QB situation (and the media drawing attention to it) has moved us into a bigger underdog position.

So what do you think?  Is this line a little large or am I just a die hard homer?

#2 cmjoyce113

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 06:16 AM

This line is because as of now Tuel is starting. If Tuel starts this line isn't large enough IMO.

#3 mannc

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 06:25 AM

11.5 is generous, indeed.  Tuel starting, and can you imagine what Brady will do to that secondary???

#4 BLEDSOE1QB

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 06:36 AM

Brady could beat us by 11.5 wearing handcuffs!

#5 Charles Romes

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 06:48 AM

Spread opened at 7.5 before EJ and Gilmore injuries.  Anyone watching the preseason cornerback play would jump on that 11.5 especially after Brady's 7 TD 400 yard half in Buffalo last year.

#6 dubs

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 07:22 AM

View PostIslandBillsFan, on 31 August 2013 - 06:05 AM, said:

Hello Bills Nation,

I was looking around at some NFL lines for week one and I couldn't help but notice the Bills are one of the biggest underdogs in Week 1.

As of current the Bills are getting 11.5 points.

I know the Pats should win the division and I know we should be huge underdogs.  However, I figured because we are at home and we are still in Week 1 and figuring things out I thought the spread would be around 7.5 to 8.5.

I also think the QB situation (and the media drawing attention to it) has moved us into a bigger underdog position.

So what do you think?  Is this line a little large or am I just a die hard homer?

As much as it pains me to say this, HAMMER THE PATS. It's probably going to be 41-3 Pats.



#7 tito1

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 07:28 AM

Yep - pats will win by 20 plus if Tuel starts. We would need an amazing defensive performance and an offensive gameplan that won't handcuff our passing game worried that Tuel will make mistakes.

I just don't see how this game is close, really really wish we opened with jets at home this ear

#8 BillsFan-4-Ever

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 07:46 AM

View PostIslandBillsFan, on 31 August 2013 - 06:05 AM, said:

Hello Bills Nation,

I was looking around at some NFL lines for week one and I couldn't help but notice the Bills are one of the biggest underdogs in Week 1.

As of current the Bills are getting 11.5 points.

I know the Pats should win the division and I know we should be huge underdogs.  However, I figured because we are at home and we are still in Week 1 and figuring things out I thought the spread would be around 7.5 to 8.5.

I also think the QB situation (and the media drawing attention to it) has moved us into a bigger underdog position.

So what do you think?  Is this line a little large or am I just a die hard homer?
IIRC it was 7 until EJ got hurt and then Kolb got hurt

#9 first_and_ten

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 07:55 AM

It's going to be a long year....... :beer:

#10 papazoid

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 07:59 AM

PSA for the betting public:

NFL double digit HOME underdogs over the last 10 years have covered 68% of the time.

#11 MyHorseAteTheKid

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 08:05 AM

I suppose since I'll be working this Sunday, I should be relieved not to be watching this contest...  But as has been the case, since about 1968, (I'm 57) I'll be driving myself nuts to hear updates on the game..  Go Bills!!!!

#12 artmalibu

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 08:06 AM

Once bets are being placed I bet the line will go higher.

#13 Why So Serious?

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 08:15 AM

There will be a lot of action on Pats -11.5 it may move up.
Week 1 division home double digit dog. Smart money goes on the dog.  Anything can happen in a division game and anything can haPpen week 1.

#14 maddenboy

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 08:24 AM

No.

Why are you all so down on Tuel?  For most of the offseason he has looked like the best QB on the team.

I realize that aint saying much.  But 2 things:  (1) The best thing about a new coach, and not an NFL retread, is that he hasnt learned to fear the Patriots.   (2)  Tuel is a gamer.  And he likes to look Downfield first, and take the checkdown only if he really has to.  Since the Patriots dont have much of a secondary, I'm predicting:

Bills 31, NE 28.

#15 prissythecat

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 08:29 AM

View Postmaddenboy, on 31 August 2013 - 08:24 AM, said:

No.

Why are you all so down on Tuel?  For most of the offseason he has looked like the best QB on the team.

I realize that aint saying much.  But 2 things:  (1) The best thing about a new coach, and not an NFL retread, is that he hasnt learned to fear the Patriots.   (2)  Tuel is a gamer.  And he likes to look Downfield first, and take the checkdown only if he really has to.  Since the Patriots dont have much of a secondary, I'm predicting:

Bills 31, NE 28.


Lol.  You seem to have a thing for qbs that "like to look downfield first".  How is that even a good gauge of success at the nfl level.  Jp liked to look downfield first for instance.   I ve heard he threw a pretty deep ball too.  But he is not even in the nfl now.

#16 HansLanda

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 08:33 AM

I would like to know:  In the Brady Era how many times have the Pats covered against the Bills.  The Lawyer Milloy game the Bills may have been favored at home, the other two wins prolly not.  I think he is 25-3 against das Bills.

Guessing they've covered the vast majority.

#17 MDH

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 08:33 AM

View Postmaddenboy, on 31 August 2013 - 08:24 AM, said:

Why are you all so down on Tuel?  For most of the offseason he has looked like the best QB on the team.


I don't know what training camp reports you've been reading but just about all of the ones I've read repeatedly stated that Tuel struggled and was the worst QB in camp day after day. He had a couple of nice pre-season games (and a bad one) but that's no reason to suddenly think an undrafted FA who struggles in practice is suddenly going to be good enough to beat the Pats in a real game.

#18 dascottbills28

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 08:35 AM

With our mess of a secondary and potentially an undrafted rookie qb starting, most experts and people in Vegas are expecting a very easy Pats win....

#19 Bangarang

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 08:38 AM

This line incredible considering right now Tuel is projected to start.

#20 dhg

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Posted 31 August 2013 - 08:49 AM

So, how much does it change even if EJ starts? I say not by much.