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To those of you who defend Hackett


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#1 billsgpr88

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 01:37 PM

Throughout various threads I have noticed that a lot of you share my opinion in regards to nate hackett: he is often terrible and terribly predictable. I've lost count of the number of times I absolutely KNEW they were going to run the ball (The jets game being the worst example). Constantly doing this on first downs, and often consecutively on the second downs, gets them to 3rd and long which is always a challenge for the offense, as the D knows a pass is coming. Compound this with the hurry up offense, which in my opinion is giving them very little if any advantage, and the D is back on the field before they can find a seat on the bench.

Now, I've read the same defense for Hackett all over the place: "Well the bills are scoring 20+ in all the games with a backup qb and injured running backs!"

While this is true, to me those facts don't reflect the play calling as much as it does the team's effort, confidence, and resilience, which I would attribute to Marrone, the ultimate leader of the team. I think they could be putting even more points on the board if they stretched the field more often (why else do we have two track star wideouts?) and pass more on first down just keep the defense honest. The defense is doing a hell of a job considering what they got on the field, but how much better would they be if the offense increased their time of possesion  (T.O.P. -17m vs Bengals, -6m vs Browns, -8.5m vs Jets).

Granted, the offensive play calling looked a little better last Sunday and it seemed like a sluggish o line and inconsistent passing was the biggest cause of the somewhat anemic offense. But make no mistake: when I can constantly predict the calls from my couch, play calling is a legitimate concern

#2 jboyst62

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 01:40 PM

Missing his starting QB who is a rookie and very raw, his two RB's banged up early, having SJ13 and very inexperienced WR's, a suspect TE and a weak OL .... I'm going to give him a bit of a break in his very first year of the NFL.

#3 The Big Cat

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 01:43 PM

The "predictable" criticism lost a lot of momentum when it was revealed that most of those "same" play calls were poorly run read-options by our rookie quarterback.

Also, I crunched the numbers. And while we DO run it substantially more often on first down than we pass, the MAJORITY of those plays are successful (4 yards or more).

So, if you acknowledge that they're one of the most consistent scoring teams in the league, how is it that what you can or can't predict has any bearing on the actual field-product?

#4 billsgpr88

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 01:43 PM

View Postjboyst62, on 23 October 2013 - 01:40 PM, said:

Missing his starting QB who is a rookie and very raw, his two RB's banged up early, having SJ13 and very inexperienced WR's, a suspect TE and a weak OL .... I'm going to give him a bit of a break in his very first year of the NFL.

Scott Chandler seems to be a pretty solid receiver to me. And despite what you've mentioned, do you geniunely like what you have seen when it comes to play caling?

#5 The Big Cat

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 01:45 PM

View Postbillsgpr88, on 23 October 2013 - 01:43 PM, said:

Scott Chandler seems to be a pretty solid receiver to me. And despite what you've mentioned, do you geniunely like what you have seen when it comes to play caling?

Why are fans so fixated on "play calling?"

Does our offense fail because they called the "wrong" play? Or because of lousy execution?

#6 Leelee Phoenix

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 01:51 PM

I don't like to focus on playcalling, but predictability is a concern. The last few games when Spiller is on the field, which is only 20-30 plays, he's getting touches about 70% of those. Manuel's read options were handoffs nearly every time. The runs in the middle are noticeable for us.

Marrone has proven already that he's a very conservative coach and his 'analytic' talk was BS which Brandon probably forced him to do.

The 20+ points every game point is silly. Most of the credit for that goes to Pettine's defense causing turnovers, along with the remarkable consistency of scoring 20-24 every single game. This is an average offense at best with Manuel or Lewis.

Marrone/Hackett get a pass for now because talent is lacking, but I'm definitely questioning their acumen so far.

#7 MDH

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 02:06 PM

The Bills offense averages 6.15 yards on 1st down - good for 15th in the league. The Bills actually average more on 1st downs than the Saints, Patriots, Chiefs, Jets, Dolphins, and Titans. They're no powerhouse, but they're not horrible either.

They're starting their 3rd string, practice string QB and both their RBs are hobbled by injury. They average less than a yard more per pass on 1st down than per run (most good teams average WAY more than that.) I don't see anything wrong with a run first, conservative approach. They have to protect these young QBs and limit their mistakes so the D can help them win games.

The problem isn't their "predictability" on 1st down setting them up for long conversions. The problem is converting 3rd downs, even manageable ones. The problems on 3rd down are directly related to QB play which illustrates to me that they're correct in running more often than not on 1st down. Start throwing more on 1st downs and they're setting themselves up for MORE third and longs, not less.

Edited by MDH, 23 October 2013 - 02:28 PM.


#8 The Poojer

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 02:16 PM

as of last week, the bills were one of 2 or 3 teams to score over 20 points a game each week
as of last week they were one of 2 or 3 teams to have 100 yard rushing games each week...

that doesn't sound horrible...do we need better execution?  hell yeah, but with the inuries to so many key players and to still be performing with these stats, i'm not ready to blast our OC

#9 Captain Hindsight

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 02:27 PM

View PostLeelee Phoenix, on 23 October 2013 - 01:51 PM, said:

I don't like to focus on playcalling, but predictability is a concern. The last few games when Spiller is on the field, which is only 20-30 plays, he's getting touches about 70% of those. Manuel's read options were handoffs nearly every time. The runs in the middle are noticeable for us.

Marrone has proven already that he's a very conservative coach and his 'analytic' talk was BS which Brandon probably forced him to do.

The 20+ points every game point is silly. Most of the credit for that goes to Pettine's defense causing turnovers, along with the remarkable consistency of scoring 20-24 every single game. This is an average offense at best with Manuel or Lewis.

Marrone/Hackett get a pass for now because talent is lacking, but I'm definitely questioning their acumen so far.
Really? How many times have they gone for it on 4th down in FG range?

He even said after the Ravens game the analytics of the kneel downs with the number of timeouts the Ravens had.

But go ahead and keep reaching for bull to back your point

#10 Bangarang

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 02:27 PM

View PostThe Poojer, on 23 October 2013 - 02:16 PM, said:

as of last week, the bills were one of 2 or 3 teams to score over 20 points a game each week
as of last week they were one of 2 or 3 teams to have 100 yard rushing games each week...

that doesn't sound horrible...do we need better execution?  hell yeah, but with the inuries to so many key players and to still be performing with these stats, i'm not ready to blast our OC

That stat is misleading. We've had TDs from our defense that have allowed us to score 20.

The offense alone isn't responsible for 20 points per game.

#11 The Big Cat

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 02:28 PM

View PostBangarang, on 23 October 2013 - 02:27 PM, said:

That stat is misleading. We've had TDs from our defense that have allowed us to score 20.

The offense alone isn't responsible for 20 points per game.

And that doesn't apply to the other 30 teams in the league...because?

#12 Captain Hindsight

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 02:28 PM

View PostBangarang, on 23 October 2013 - 02:27 PM, said:

That stat is misleading. We've had TDs from our defense that have allowed us to score 20.

The offense alone isn't responsible for 20 points per game.
I don't give two shits how they score as long as they score.

#13 klos63

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 02:38 PM

View Postbillsgpr88, on 23 October 2013 - 01:37 PM, said:

Throughout various threads I have noticed that a lot of you share my opinion in regards to nate hackett: he is often terrible and terribly predictable. I've lost count of the number of times I absolutely KNEW they were going to run the ball (The jets game being the worst example). Constantly doing this on first downs, and often consecutively on the second downs, gets them to 3rd and long which is always a challenge for the offense, as the D knows a pass is coming. Compound this with the hurry up offense, which in my opinion is giving them very little if any advantage, and the D is back on the field before they can find a seat on the bench.

Now, I've read the same defense for Hackett all over the place: "Well the bills are scoring 20+ in all the games with a backup qb and injured running backs!"

While this is true, to me those facts don't reflect the play calling as much as it does the team's effort, confidence, and resilience, which I would attribute to Marrone, the ultimate leader of the team. I think they could be putting even more points on the board if they stretched the field more often (why else do we have two track star wideouts?) and pass more on first down just keep the defense honest. The defense is doing a hell of a job considering what they got on the field, but how much better would they be if the offense increased their time of possesion  (T.O.P. -17m vs Bengals, -6m vs Browns, -8.5m vs Jets).

Granted, the offensive play calling looked a little better last Sunday and it seemed like a sluggish o line and inconsistent passing was the biggest cause of the somewhat anemic offense. But make no mistake: when I can constantly predict the calls from my couch, play calling is a legitimate concern
There are basically 2 options each time you snap the ball- run or pass. I'm impressed you can predict a running play. Add to that we are a strong running team I would expect us to run more often and be predictable. If  you watch professional football closely you might realize game plans are not about tricking the other team, but about executing your strengths. Since we have 2 excellent running backs and we are weak at QB and WR should we be a passing team in order to trick the other team?
Your criticism makes no sense.

Edited by klos63, 23 October 2013 - 02:56 PM.


#14 klos63

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 02:53 PM

View PostLeelee Phoenix, on 23 October 2013 - 01:51 PM, said:

I don't like to focus on playcalling, but predictability is a concern. The last few games when Spiller is on the field, which is only 20-30 plays, he's getting touches about 70% of those. Manuel's read options were handoffs nearly every time. The runs in the middle are noticeable for us.

Marrone has proven already that he's a very conservative coach and his 'analytic' talk was BS which Brandon probably forced him to do.

The 20+ points every game point is silly. Most of the credit for that goes to Pettine's defense causing turnovers, along with the remarkable consistency of scoring 20-24 every single game. This is an average offense at best with Manuel or Lewis.

Marrone/Hackett get a pass for now because talent is lacking, but I'm definitely questioning their acumen so far.
yes, Spiller is more likely to get the ball when he is in the game. That's your criticism??? We have a strong running game, we are going to run the ball. We will run the ball up the middle because Fred Jackson is really good at it.
I don't get this criticism.

Edited by klos63, 23 October 2013 - 02:58 PM.


#15 billsgpr88

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 03:00 PM

View Postklos63, on 23 October 2013 - 02:38 PM, said:

There are basically 2 options each time you snap the ball- run or pass. I'm impressed you can predict a running play. Add to that we are a strong running team I would expect us to run more often and be predictable. If  you watch professional football closely you might realize game plans are not about tricking the other team, but about executing your strengths. Since we have 2 excellent running backs and we are weak at QB and WR should we be a passing team in order to trick the other team.
Your criticism makes no sense.

I'm not talking about tricking the defense, I'm talking about sustaining longer drives and utilizing the wr talent we have. If a D knows the run is coming, clearly they can stack the box and limit the ability to get anything more than 4 or 5 yards at best. We are still succeeding despite this because freddy is one of the smartest running backs I've ever seen, but imho it's asking too much to rely on this to bring you all the way down the field. We've seen stevie, chandler, and woods bail us out on third and longs several times this year; if it works when the D knows we're going to pass and we can still do it, isn't that a sign of what the passing game is capable of? And the very few times they've gone deep they have been successful. BTW, just because you have a different opinion from mine, it doesn't mean that either one of us is an idiot, so try showing some respect. People are generally pretty cool on this forum, you don't have to be a sarcastic turd in the swimming pool that is TSW

#16 Bangarang

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 03:13 PM

View PostThe Big Cat, on 23 October 2013 - 02:28 PM, said:



And that doesn't apply to the other 30 teams in the league...because?

Not every other team has scored more than 20 points a game except for us and the Broncos.

That stat always shows up in a Hackett discussion about why he's doing a good job. It's being represented as if the offense is scoring over 20 points per game which isn't the case.

View PostCaptain Hindsight, on 23 October 2013 - 02:28 PM, said:

I don't give two shits how they score as long as they score.

I'm just merely pointing out that the offense isn't scoring over 20 points a game like the Broncos is. Bringing up that point is misleading.

#17 JR in Pittsburgh

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 03:13 PM

@OP:  I agree that we need to get more way from run-run-pass. But the passes we call also have to be better executed. Last game, we called more 1st down passes, but quickly got into 2 and 10, which led to a run, and then 3rd and 9, etc.  we need to put Thad in more 3rd and 4's.

#18 Max997

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 03:16 PM

View Postjboyst62, on 23 October 2013 - 01:40 PM, said:

Missing his starting QB who is a rookie and very raw, his two RB's banged up early, having SJ13 and very inexperienced WR's, a suspect TE and a weak OL .... I'm going to give him a bit of a break in his very first year of the NFL.

that to me is nothing but a bunch of excuses

i agree you dont want to overload young players but i remember hearing some syracuse fans on here say his play calling would drive us nuts when he was hired and sure enough it has

My biggest complaints are:

he just calls plays without any plan or thought to down and distance and the number of plays in the game plan each week also seems to be very low as we see the same couple of plays run most of the game. Im not saying there should be 500 but come on

where is the creativity to get Spiller the ball even before he was hurt? watch KC and see how they use Charles and McCluster in the lineup together? There is no reason for Spiller to not be catching more balls or getting the ball in the open instead of runs up the middle every other play...he isnt that type of player

and is it me or do they run the ball at what seems like 80% of the time on first down?

#19 The Big Cat

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 03:23 PM

View PostMax997, on 23 October 2013 - 03:16 PM, said:

he just calls plays without any plan or thought to down and distance and the number of plays in the game plan each week also seems to be very low as we see the same couple of plays run most of the game. Im not saying there should be 500 but come on

You're suggesting extreme, unmitigated incompetence the likes of which is just as unlikely and spurious as the claims that our offense is secretly the best in the NFL.

View PostMax997, on 23 October 2013 - 03:16 PM, said:

where is the creativity to get Spiller the ball even before he was hurt? watch KC and see how they use Charles and McCluster in the lineup together? There is no reason for Spiller to not be catching more balls or getting the ball in the open instead of runs up the middle every other play...he isnt that type of player

So, instead he should design every play for Spiller to be bounced to the outside? He has to go up the gut every one in a while. And when he does he gets 3-6 yards...consistently. It's the plays that he's moving laterally behind the line that haven't worked.

Plus, there's a lot of revisionist history here as to how flawlessly Chan used Spiller last year, when a.) everyone was SCREAMING for him to use Spiller like Hackett does now and b.) he used him in dual sets with Freddy about as often as Hackett has also. See: Easley, Marcus.


View PostMax997, on 23 October 2013 - 03:16 PM, said:

and is it me or do they run the ball at what seems like 80% of the time on first down?

It's just you.

#20 NoSaint

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 03:26 PM

View PostMax997, on 23 October 2013 - 03:16 PM, said:

and is it me or do they run the ball at what seems like 80% of the time on first down?

i think i poster went back and outside of clock killing situations it was 40% passes on first down last game but they were remarkably unsuccessful (penalties, incompletions etc...).

dont know their accuracy but it was posted monday(?)