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Interesting stats show Bills with good offense, poor defense


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#1 ProbablyWrong

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Posted 24 October 2013 - 10:56 AM

I saw a statistical tool yesterday that ranked the Bills offense 9th and their defense 27th (overall rank of 19th).

It basically compared points scored/points allowed as compared to each opponents' averages. Bills scored 1.15 on offense, meaning they scored 1.15 times as many points as their opponents give up on average, and scored 1.23 on defense, meaning they allowed 1.23 times as many points as their opponents score on average.

Very different from the narrative we were told so far, but it makes sense if you look at our opponents: much better typically on defense than on offense. And yet we managed to put up 20+ on all of them.

#2 Tommy

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Posted 24 October 2013 - 11:34 AM

Did the analysis take into account actual offensive points scored as compared to special teams or defensive TDs? I'm not saying it would drastically change the results, as the Bills only have two defensive TDs. But I don't think the results mean as much if you are trying to rank offenses and defenses. On a team (overall points per game and points given up) level though, it's interesting to see where we stack up.

Edited by Tommy, 24 October 2013 - 11:36 AM.


#3 ProbablyWrong

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Posted 24 October 2013 - 11:44 AM

I think it is just points for/points against, but I'm not sure.

#4 reddogblitz

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Posted 24 October 2013 - 11:55 AM

This doesn't surprise me.  In fact, I've been pointing this out for weeks.  Not using your stats, but ones on NFL.com.  In yards and points, we're in the bottom 1/4th of the league. while our offense is around the middle of the pack.  While our defense looks better and is more fun, it is little more effective in stopping the run and giving up points that last years disaster.

The one difference has been TOs.  But we sometimes get them (Ravens, Fish) and sometimes don't (Clowns, Bungles).  For this reason I have made up a nickname for our defense, "The Feast or Faminators".

To be a good defense, we must continue to get TOs, but also be able to stop the other team better.

#5 matter2003

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Posted 24 October 2013 - 12:27 PM

View Postreddogblitz, on 24 October 2013 - 11:55 AM, said:

This doesn't surprise me.  In fact, I've been pointing this out for weeks.  Not using your stats, but ones on NFL.com.  In yards and points, we're in the bottom 1/4th of the league. while our offense is around the middle of the pack.  While our defense looks better and is more fun, it is little more effective in stopping the run and giving up points that last years disaster.

The one difference has been TOs.  But we sometimes get them (Ravens, Fish) and sometimes don't (Clowns, Bungles).  For this reason I have made up a nickname for our defense, "The Feast or Faminators".

To be a good defense, we must continue to get TOs, but also be able to stop the other team better.

Those stats are meaningless when you don't compare apple's to apple's. Obviously we are going to allow more yards and points because our defense has had the most drives against, faced the most plays against and been on the field more than any other defense. We have had an extra 18 drives against us versus the average team in the league(96 versus 78), which is about an extra game and a half worth.

By virtually every metric the Bills are a top 10 defense, top 5 in some areas

Edited by matter2003, 24 October 2013 - 12:32 PM.


#6 BillsFan-4-Ever

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Posted 24 October 2013 - 12:28 PM

View PostProbablyWrong, on 24 October 2013 - 10:56 AM, said:

I saw a statistical tool yesterday that ranked the Bills offense 9th and their defense 27th (overall rank of 19th).

It basically compared points scored/points allowed as compared to each opponents' averages. Bills scored 1.15 on offense, meaning they scored 1.15 times as many points as their opponents give up on average, and scored 1.23 on defense, meaning they allowed 1.23 times as many points as their opponents score on average.

Very different from the narrative we were told so far, but it makes sense if you look at our opponents: much better typically on defense than on offense. And yet we managed to put up 20+ on all of them.
when you play good QB's often your numbers tend to suck, and lets not forget the gaffs the D  has made  allowed big gains on plays.
and then there's Geno Smith having a field day in the air too


Passing O's
# 7 Cincinnati
# 12 Baltimore
# 17 Cleveland   :blush:
# 18 New England
# 19 NYETS  :blush:

and da Bills have yet to face
# 5 NO Saints
# 6 Atlanta

Rushing O's
#4 Buffalo

Edited by BillsFan-4-Ever, 24 October 2013 - 12:38 PM.


#7 Bangarang

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Posted 24 October 2013 - 12:30 PM

Football Outsiders advanced stats show the opposite.

Our defense is ranked 6th while out offense was in the 20s.

#8 matter2003

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Posted 24 October 2013 - 12:38 PM

View PostBangarang, on 24 October 2013 - 12:30 PM, said:

Football Outsiders advanced stats show the opposite.

Our defense is ranked 6th while out offense was in the 20s.

So does Advanced NFL stats and PFF...very good D, very poor O...in fact PFF has us as the second to last O in the NFL

View PostBillsFan-4-Ever, on 24 October 2013 - 12:28 PM, said:

when you play good QB's ofter your numbers tend to suck, and lets not forget the gaffs that have allowed big gains on plays.
and then there's Geno Smith having a field day [Against Justin Rogers] too


Passing O's
# 7 Cincinnati
# 12 Baltimore
# 17 Cleveland   :blush:
# 18 New England
# 19 NYETS  :blush:

and da Bills have yet to face
# 5 NO Saints
# 6 Atlanta

Rushing O's
#4 Buffalo

Corrected with brackets for truth...lol

#9 reddogblitz

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Posted 24 October 2013 - 12:54 PM

You can slice and dice this stuff however you want.  The stat I usually look at to give me an idea on a defense's effectiveness is points per game.  We give up 25.4 which ranks us 22nd in the league.  Nothing to write home about.  Last year we gave up 27.2 ranked 26th, so I guess that's some improvement.

As far as how many drives etc, so what?  Giving up points for a D is bad.  Stopping the other team from scoring points is good.  We need to stop more and give up less.

And we're 3-4.  D needs to improve a lot.

Edited by reddogblitz, 24 October 2013 - 12:55 PM.


#10 You herd it hear last

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Posted 24 October 2013 - 01:02 PM

With all the advanced metrics and algorithms out there, it's too bad they can't factor injuries into their equations. I wonder where we'd rank if they did.

#11 BuffaloBillsForever

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Posted 24 October 2013 - 01:11 PM

The hurry up style offense skews numbers drastically. In this instance you can't take it at face value.

The Bills offense leads the league in offensive possesions but is 2nd or 3rd last in time of possesion.

More possesions = more yards, more points.

Now take into account you lead the league in possesions and near last in how long you posses the ball, the Bills offense is severly gassing the defense. They are on the field more than any other defense in the league. Naturally you will give up more points, more yards.

You take this into context it adds another layer how excellent our defense has played this year - not our offense. The offense has actually hurt the defense this year and on the opposite spectrum the defense has created a lot of opportunities in terms of field position and scoring points for the offense.

Edited by BuffaloBillsForever, 24 October 2013 - 01:18 PM.


#12 matter2003

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Posted 24 October 2013 - 01:13 PM

Common sense tells you the more chances the opposition has, the more points you are going to give up. In per drive stats, Bills are top 10 across the board

#13 JPS

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Posted 24 October 2013 - 01:36 PM

It'll be a much different conversation if the Bills get shredded by New Orleans and answer that by making Alex Smith look like Tom Brady in week 9.  These 2 scenarios have a better than even chance of happening the next 2 weeks.  

To call the Bills a top 5 defense is laughable.  Alonzo and Lawson make this team better, but let's not get crazy.

#14 reddogblitz

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Posted 24 October 2013 - 01:40 PM

View PostJPS, on 24 October 2013 - 01:36 PM, said:

To call the Bills a top 5 defense is laughable.  Alonzo and Lawson make this team better, but let's not get crazy.

+1

#15 BuffaloBillsForever

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Posted 24 October 2013 - 01:42 PM

View PostJPS, on 24 October 2013 - 01:36 PM, said:

It'll be a much different conversation if the Bills get shredded by New Orleans and answer that by making Alex Smith look like Tom Brady in week 9.  These 2 scenarios have a better than even chance of happening the next 2 weeks.  

To call the Bills a top 5 defense is laughable.  Alonzo and Lawson make this team better, but let's not get crazy.

The Bills defense has over a games worth of possessions against more than  the NFL average thanks to the Bills offense. If you normalize this, yes they are an elite defense in the league.

Edited by BuffaloBillsForever, 24 October 2013 - 01:44 PM.


#16 BillsFan-4-Ever

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Posted 24 October 2013 - 01:56 PM

View PostBuffaloBillsForever, on 24 October 2013 - 01:11 PM, said:

The hurry up style offense skews numbers drastically. In this instance you can't take it at face value.

The Bills offense leads the league in offensive possesions but is 2nd or 3rd last in time of possesion.

More possesions = more yards, more points.

Now take into account you lead the league in possesions and near last in how long you posses the ball, the Bills offense is severly gassing the defense. They are on the field more than any other defense in the league. Naturally you will give up more points, more yards.

You take this into context it adds another layer how excellent our defense has played this year - not our offense. The offense has actually hurt the defense this year and on the opposite spectrum the defense has created a lot of opportunities in terms of field position and scoring points for the offense.
I seem to recall the Kelly lead Bills (in the 4 years that they made the SB)   hardly EVER held more than 1/3 of the TOP

The Giants set a Super Bowl record for time of possession with 40 minutes and won by a missed FG

thanks google

Levy: “We were walking off the field and our offensive coordinator Ted Marchibroda and line coach Tom Bresnahan were on either side of me and I said, ‘Ted, why don’t we make that our basic offense next year?’ He looked at me with wide eyes and so did Tom and said, ‘That’s what I was thinking.’ So we proceeded from there.”
Perfecting the no-huddle full time in 1991, the Bills led the NFL in plays per game over the next five years, averaging 66.8.

“When we went to it, we cut our playbook by 80 percent,” Levy said. “So we got tremendous repetition, we practiced at a high-speed level, the conditioning was there, practices were shorter, players were more focused.

“It has its drawbacks,” Levy continued. “Your defense is back on the field more quickly. In a close game, there’s going to be a tremendous time of possession advantage for your opponent if they’re not using it, about 40 minutes to 20 minutes. If we ever got a pretty good lead, we’d play a slower tempo and try to run time off the clock.”


http://espncleveland...9&post_id=21461

Edited by BillsFan-4-Ever, 24 October 2013 - 01:58 PM.


#17 ProbablyWrong

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Posted 24 October 2013 - 02:20 PM

View PostBuffaloBillsForever, on 24 October 2013 - 01:42 PM, said:



The Bills defense has over a games worth of possessions against more than  the NFL average thanks to the Bills offense. If you normalize this, yes they are an elite defense in the league.

Normalized, this system has the offense 14th and defense 23rd. Overall 18th. Defense still not elite, at least in terms of points given up per game.

#18 BillsBackersChicago

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Posted 24 October 2013 - 02:23 PM

View PostProbablyWrong, on 24 October 2013 - 10:56 AM, said:

I saw a statistical tool yesterday that ranked the Bills offense 9th and their defense 27th (overall rank of 19th).

It basically compared points scored/points allowed as compared to each opponents' averages. Bills scored 1.15 on offense, meaning they scored 1.15 times as many points as their opponents give up on average, and scored 1.23 on defense, meaning they allowed 1.23 times as many points as their opponents score on average.

Very different from the narrative we were told so far, but it makes sense if you look at our opponents: much better typically on defense than on offense. And yet we managed to put up 20+ on all of them.

This can be skewed as follows: The the opponents offense scores more against our defense because they are on the field more against our defense than they are against other defenses.

The question is how can our offense score more points against opponents defense despite NOT being on the field as much. My answer: long scoring plays that don't take a lot of time. We've definitely had several of those this year. Just speculation on this last point though.

#19 BuffaloBillsForever

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Posted 24 October 2013 - 02:31 PM

View PostProbablyWrong, on 24 October 2013 - 02:20 PM, said:

Normalized, this system has the offense 14th and defense 23rd. Overall 18th. Defense still not elite, at least in terms of points given up per game.

NO! Normalized they are 8th and 12th in terms of yardage and points. Overall,  they are a top 10 defense.

They rank 8th in average yards given up per drive with 28.04(last year 32.73(26th)).  12th in points per drve with 1.71(2.23(29th)).  10th in turnovers per drive with .156(.112(24th)), 4th in INTs per drive with .125(.067(21st)), 10th in plays per drive with 5.47(5.93(19th)), 9th in time of possession allowed per drive at 2:26(2:40(16th)) and 7th in drive success rate at .655(.727(31st))

Edited by BuffaloBillsForever, 24 October 2013 - 02:33 PM.


#20 HoF Watkins

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Posted 24 October 2013 - 03:08 PM

5 turnovers vs. the Ravens, and the Bills win by 3....
This offense is doing the (pretty good, but with holes) defense, no favors.

I don't think the offense is any better than the defense, and they both have some problems. But the defense can at least make big plays. The offense doesn't get big chunks, can't seem to punch it in at the goal line, doesn't convert turnovers into touchdowns, has too many  3 and outs, and short possessions.

Although the hurry up allows the team to score over 20, it gives the defense the short end of the stick.

Edited by Marauder'sMicro, 24 October 2013 - 03:12 PM.