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Very interesting defensive stats


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#1 mjt328

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 03:09 PM

These numbers are through Week 10:


RUSHING DEFENSE:

The Bills have allowed a total of 1,173 yards on the ground (Ranked 30th in the NFL).  Of course, this sounds terrible as usual.  However... They have also faced the 2nd most rushes in the NFL (only 1 rush behind Jacksonville).
If you go by Yards Per Rush, the Bills have allowed only 4.0 YPA = Ranked 13th in the NFL.  Not too bad after all.


PASSING DEFENSE:

The Bills have allowed a total of 2,386 yards in the air (Ranked 25th in the NFL).  Broken down by Yards Per Attempt, those numbers improve yet again -- to 7.1 YPA (Ranked 15th in the NFL).
I think it's also important to point out the injury factor.  The Bills played without Stephon Gilmore and Jairus Byrd (both were out Weeks 1-5) and Leodis McKelvin (out most of Week 3 and all of Week 4).
Since all four starters have been in the lineup (beginning with Week 6 against Cincinnati), the Bills have only allowed 6.3 YPA.  If applied to the entire season, that would be good enough to Rank 5th in the entire NFL.


TURNOVERS/SACKS:

The Bills are ranked 2nd in the NFL in sacks with 33.
They are tied for 12th in the NFL with 16 turnovers (13 interceptions and 3 fumbles).
Those 13 interceptions ties them with Denver, Seattle and Carolina for the league lead.


POINTS ALLOWED:

The Bills have allowed 259 points (Ranked 29th in the NFL).
If you break that down per game, they have allowed 25.9 points (Ranked 24th in the NFL).
At first glance, this looks pretty bad.  But if you look closer, you will see that:
> Buffalo's offense has given away 3 defensive touchdowns (2 against KC and 1 against Cleveland).  Special teams has allowed 1 touchdown as well (Cleveland).  If you take these points away, the Bills have allowed 23.1 per game - ranking them around 14th in the NFL.
> There have been 7 times where the opponent has gotten the ball inside Buffalo's 35 yard line (either off an offensive turnover or punt/kick return) and the defense has held them to a field goal.  If you take these points away, the defense is averaging only 21.0 points allowed - ranking them around 8th in the NFL.


SUMMARY:

- Despite the team's 3-7 record, the defense has improved immensely under Mike Pettine's leadership.  Their aggressive nature has them racking up lots of sacks and forcing lots of interceptions.
- The poor statistical rankings are heavily influenced by the poor play on offense.  
- Injuries in the secondary were significant.  Since the starters have returned, the defensive backfield has played excellent.

#2 BuffaloBillsForever

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 03:17 PM

View Postmjt328, on 13 November 2013 - 03:09 PM, said:

These numbers are through Week 10:


RUSHING DEFENSE:

The Bills have allowed a total of 1,173 yards on the ground (Ranked 30th in the NFL).  Of course, this sounds terrible as usual.  However... They have also faced the 2nd most rushes in the NFL (only 1 rush behind Jacksonville).
If you go by Yards Per Rush, the Bills have allowed only 4.0 YPA = Ranked 13th in the NFL.  Not too bad after all.


PASSING DEFENSE:

The Bills have allowed a total of 2,386 yards in the air (Ranked 25th in the NFL).  Broken down by Yards Per Attempt, those numbers improve yet again -- to 7.1 YPA (Ranked 15th in the NFL).
I think it's also important to point out the injury factor.  The Bills played without Stephon Gilmore and Jairus Byrd (both were out Weeks 1-5) and Leodis McKelvin (out most of Week 3 and all of Week 4).
Since all four starters have been in the lineup (beginning with Week 6 against Cincinnati), the Bills have only allowed 6.3 YPA.  If applied to the entire season, that would be good enough to Rank 5th in the entire NFL.


TURNOVERS/SACKS:

The Bills are ranked 2nd in the NFL in sacks with 33.
They are tied for 12th in the NFL with 16 turnovers (13 interceptions and 3 fumbles).
Those 13 interceptions ties them with Denver, Seattle and Carolina for the league lead.


POINTS ALLOWED:

The Bills have allowed 259 points (Ranked 29th in the NFL).
If you break that down per game, they have allowed 25.9 points (Ranked 24th in the NFL).
At first glance, this looks pretty bad.  But if you look closer, you will see that:
> Buffalo's offense has given away 3 defensive touchdowns (2 against KC and 1 against Cleveland).  Special teams has allowed 1 touchdown as well (Cleveland).  If you take these points away, the Bills have allowed 23.1 per game - ranking them around 14th in the NFL.
> There have been 7 times where the opponent has gotten the ball inside Buffalo's 35 yard line (either off an offensive turnover or punt/kick return) and the defense has held them to a field goal.  If you take these points away, the defense is averaging only 21.0 points allowed - ranking them around 8th in the NFL.


SUMMARY:

- Despite the team's 3-7 record, the defense has improved immensely under Mike Pettine's leadership.  Their aggressive nature has them racking up lots of sacks and forcing lots of interceptions.
- The poor statistical rankings are heavily influenced by the poor play on offense.  
- Injuries in the secondary were significant.  Since the starters have returned, the defensive backfield has played excellent.

Very good work and excellent analysis of the data.

Pettine has done an excellent job and has made a dramatic impact on this team. Too bad the Bills are regressing offensively and in special teams play.

Edited by BuffaloBillsForever, 13 November 2013 - 03:18 PM.


#3 Matt in KC

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 03:19 PM

Thanks for posting the stats; those were interesting.

For the bottom two bullets under Points Allowed you call out some factors hurting our standing.  You can't however say what our rank would be excluding those scores, unless of course you apply the same forgiveness to the other teams, then re-rank.

#4 BuffaloBillsForever

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 03:23 PM

View PostMatt in KC, on 13 November 2013 - 03:19 PM, said:

Thanks for posting the stats; those were interesting.

For the bottom two bullets under Points Allowed you call out some factors hurting our standing.  You can't however say what our rank would be excluding those scores, unless of course you apply the same forgiveness to the other teams, then re-rank.

I think it is just to give context to how bad our offense hurts this defense on a weekly basis. I have been saying that pretty much every week. MJT did an excellent job putting numbers to the issue.

Edited by BuffaloBillsForever, 13 November 2013 - 03:24 PM.


#5 mead107

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 03:25 PM

Hope things get better with EJ  so he can be one of the best .

#6 mjt328

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 03:25 PM

View PostMatt in KC, on 13 November 2013 - 03:19 PM, said:

Thanks for posting the stats; those were interesting.

For the bottom two bullets under Points Allowed you call out some factors hurting our standing.  You can't however say what our rank would be excluding those scores, unless of course you apply the same forgiveness to the other teams, then re-rank.

Yeah, I realized that, but didn't want to take the time to re-rank all 32 teams.

The main point is... offensive turnovers/special teams returns are directly leading to a whopping 5 PPG for the opponent!!!  That's almost a touchdown every week.

Edited by mjt328, 13 November 2013 - 03:26 PM.


#7 Security

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 03:47 PM

These are the key stats:

http://www.teamranki...-conversion-pct

On offense we are 26th in 3rd down conversions

http://www.teamranki...-conversion-pct

On defense we are 19th

http://www.teamranki...ssion-net-of-ot

We are 29th in time of possession

#8 Max997

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 04:03 PM

Bills are still soft up the middle on defense

The offense stinks

#9 VirginiaMike

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 04:04 PM

While I agree with the basic premise that the defense is not as bad as the stats lead  you to believe,if you remove the statistics you note from the Bills statistics you need to remove them from the other teams as well for a fair compare

#10 KikO M G

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 04:09 PM

Here are the statistics demonstrating the Bills' defense is terrible.  Take away this, add that, factor in injuries, and they're actually middle of the pack!

Sorry I am not persuaded by this post, though I do appreciate the thought put into it.

#11 marauderswr80

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 04:15 PM

Only stat that counts is our record....

3-7

#12 mjt328

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 04:21 PM

View PostKikO M G, on 13 November 2013 - 04:09 PM, said:

Here are the statistics demonstrating the Bills' defense is terrible.  Take away this, add that, factor in injuries, and they're actually middle of the pack!

Sorry I am not persuaded by this post, though I do appreciate the thought put into it.

My point was to dig deeper into the stats.  A lot of people see "Ranked 30th in Rush Defense" and assume that nothing has changed from past years.  In reality, we are allowing a full YPC less than last year.

Detroit is currently ranked Top 10 in rushing defense.  
However, they have only gone against 203 rushing attempts.  The Bills have seen 296 rushing attempts.
Bills are allowing 4.0 YPC.  Detroit is allowing 4.5 YPC.

I must ask...Do you not feel the defense has improved this year?

#13 Security

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 04:29 PM

Buffalo was 32nd on defense on 3rd down percentage, we are 19th now, so that is big to me, getting off the field, and they did demonstrate a few times they could get late stops, so they are better.

Offense 3rd down  % is skewed.  We were 13th last season in that stat, we are 26th now, almost 5% points lower this year.  We were playing from so far behind last year in almost every game that teams allowed us to complete 3rd downs in the 2nd half almost every game to waste time.

#14 mjt328

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 04:30 PM

View PostMax997, on 13 November 2013 - 04:03 PM, said:

Bills are still soft up the middle on defense

Honestly, I don't see our D-Line getting pushed around much anymore.  And most All-22 reviews that I've read this season are saying the same thing.  Kyle, Marcel and Branch are all having very good years stopping the run.

Most of the big runs are failures in gap responsibility, and breakdowns due to our aggressive play-calling.

#15 KikO M G

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 04:31 PM

View Postmjt328, on 13 November 2013 - 04:21 PM, said:



My point was to dig deeper into the stats.  A lot of people see "Ranked 30th in Rush Defense" and assume that nothing has changed from past years.  In reality, we are allowing a full YPC less than last year.

Detroit is currently ranked Top 10 in rushing defense.  
However, they have only gone against 203 rushing attempts.  The Bills have seen 296 rushing attempts.
Bills are allowing 4.0 YPC.  Detroit is allowing 4.5 YPC.

I must ask...Do you not feel the defense has improved this year?

It has.  And the offense is worse.  All told, it adds up to the same losing record.

#16 mjt328

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 04:33 PM

View PostKikO M G, on 13 November 2013 - 04:31 PM, said:


It has.  And the offense is worse.  All told, it adds up to the same losing record.

Agreed.  But I'm getting tired of complaining about EJ and Hackett.

#17 clearwater cadet

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 04:38 PM

Say what you want they are soft.  Put them in a 3 or 4th and forever, and they give up a touchdown or first down.  I would like to see how many 3rd or 4th and longs they have given up this year.

Edited by clearwater cadet, 13 November 2013 - 04:38 PM.


#18 Security

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 04:39 PM

View Postclearwater cadet, on 13 November 2013 - 04:38 PM, said:

Say what you want they are soft.  Put them in a 3 or 4th and forever, and they give up a touchdown or first down.  I would like to see how many 3rd or 4th and longs they have given up this year.

Now this has been where they are really bad.

#19 over 20 years of fanhood

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 05:14 PM

View Postmarauderswr80, on 13 November 2013 - 04:15 PM, said:

Only stat that counts is our record....

3-7

This.  If you are on a 3-7 team you are a 3-7 defense. The stats help prioritize the problems but the D hasn't won us any games since Baltimore.

#20 Jauronimo

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 05:16 PM

View Postover 20 years of fanhood, on 13 November 2013 - 05:14 PM, said:

This.  If you are on a 3-7 team you are a 3-7 defense. The stats help prioritize the problems but the D hasn't won us any games since Baltimore.
How do you prioritize when your defense, offense and special teams are 3-7?  You have a 3-7 coach, a 3-7 QB, a 3-7 GM, and a 3-7 popcorn vendor.  Where do you start?

Why does every thread discussing stats attract a gaggle of drones who leave their pearl about the only stat that matters?  If you don't understand statistics, don't believe in statistical analysis and don't care to discuss stats, why participate in a thread dedicated to statistics?

Edited by Jauronimo, 13 November 2013 - 05:20 PM.