Jump to content


The Coach Who Never Punts(and always onside kicks)


  • Please log in to reply
49 replies to this topic

#1 mattitude

mattitude

    Probation

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 17 posts

Posted 14 November 2013 - 06:10 PM

I love the math in this.   Hopefully our new analytics department will have the same findings.

Coach Kevin Kelley of Pulaski Academy in Little Rock, Arkansas, instructs his players to never punt, never field punts, and only do onside kicks, and he claims that math backs up his innovative philosophy. Grantland spent some time with Kelley and his players to learn more about the coach behind the team that once scored 29 points before its opponent touched the ball.

http://www.grantland...ach-never-punts

#2 Steve O

Steve O

    UDFA

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 1,026 posts

Posted 14 November 2013 - 06:26 PM

After we lost to the Patriots in 07, I thought we should be doing this when we play them as there is nothing to lose if the defense can't stop them. Only thing I would add is to blitz on every down as well.

Edited by Steve O, 14 November 2013 - 06:31 PM.


#3 iEat_Phins

iEat_Phins

    Practice Squad

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 198 posts

Posted 14 November 2013 - 06:29 PM

I've heard of the "never punt" philosophy being used in high school before. In the NFL I think it is a little dramatic, but Marrone sure could grow some balls after opting to punt last game when we were down in the 4th and in Pitt territory.

#4 drinkTHEkoolaid

drinkTHEkoolaid

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,653 posts

Posted 14 November 2013 - 06:51 PM

I love the idea of never punting. Not sure about on side kicks every time...not sure if the math backs up on side kick %s of success and going on to score points vs giving good field position if you don't recover and points scored against.

I think too much "traditional football" logic can be dis proven with numbers but coaches are too afraid of change and taking risks

#5 Dibs

Dibs

    Myth Buster

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 5,725 posts

Posted 15 November 2013 - 08:12 AM

View PostdrinkTHEkoolaid, on 14 November 2013 - 06:51 PM, said:

I love the idea of never punting. Not sure about on side kicks every time...not sure if the math backs up on side kick %s of success and going on to score points vs giving good field position if you don't recover and points scored against.

I think too much "traditional football" logic can be dis proven with numbers but coaches are too afraid of change and taking risks

I agree.  The onside kicks would definitely be different in the NFL now.  I don't know the stat but there seems to be a huge increase in touchbacks this season......so his average start line of the 33 yard line(from the video) giving up only 14 yards would be changed to close to 27 yards given up in the NFL.  Most likely the math wouldn't hold for such a large field position advantage.

#6 MikeSpeed

MikeSpeed

    Wall Flower

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 692 posts

Posted 15 November 2013 - 08:25 AM

Since the kickoff is now a waste of time anyways, move the kickoffs to the 50 and give the coach the option of kicking out of the endzone or doing an onside kick.

#7 Nanker

Nanker

    Blls Nation Unite!

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 16,117 posts

Posted 15 November 2013 - 08:33 AM

They'll never do that, and claim that player injuries will spike if they enact that rule.

#8 plenzmd1

plenzmd1

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,461 posts

Posted 15 November 2013 - 08:44 AM

View PostDibs, on 15 November 2013 - 08:12 AM, said:



I agree.  The onside kicks would definitely be different in the NFL now.  I don't know the stat but there seems to be a huge increase in touchbacks this season......so his average start line of the 33 yard line(from the video) giving up only 14 yards would be changed to close to 27 yards given up in the NFL.  Most likely the math wouldn't hold for such a large field position advantage.
Plus, they kick from the 40 in high school I think, so really giving up 33 yards in the NFL if average start is the 20

Edited by plenzmd1, 15 November 2013 - 08:45 AM.


#9 JR in Pittsburgh

JR in Pittsburgh

    No Mercy

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 11,214 posts

Posted 15 November 2013 - 08:47 AM

View PostMikeSpeed, on 15 November 2013 - 08:25 AM, said:

Since the kickoff is now a waste of time anyways, move the kickoffs to the 50 and give the coach the option of kicking out of the endzone or doing an onside kick.

If they keep the kickoff rules, my vote would be to at least move the line back in the 4th qtr so we can see some returns when the game is on the line.

Or, maybe a kickoff going through the back of the end zone should be a touchback to the 30, not the 20. This would not allow kickers to just kick it as far as they can.

#10 BuffaloBill

BuffaloBill

    Jim K is tough but so is being a Bills fan

  • Global Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 13,217 posts

Posted 15 November 2013 - 08:53 AM

The spirit of what is being done here needs to be examined.  I think you also have to factor in the score and time left in a game to make this realistic.  In a very close game with very little time left you might make different decisions on either side of the ball.

#11 KD in CT

KD in CT

    Hall of Famer

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 27,851 posts

Posted 15 November 2013 - 08:57 AM

View PostiEat_Phins, on 14 November 2013 - 06:29 PM, said:

I've heard of the "never punt" philosophy being used in high school before. In the NFL I think it is a little dramatic, but Marrone sure could grow some balls after opting to punt last game when we were down in the 4th and in Pitt territory.

Agreed.  Obviously you want to punt on 4th and long from your own end of the field, but the current NFL 'punt first' mentality is absurd.  Punting from the 35?  Punting on 4th and 1?  That's nothing but coaches managing the risk of negative press.

#12 BigBuff423

BigBuff423

    RFA

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 884 posts

Posted 15 November 2013 - 09:00 AM

I like the never punt philosophy...for many reasons, but most of all because I believe you eventually open up the playbook more...if it's 3rd and 8, you don't have to pass...you could run for 3 yards and it be 4th and 5 and it put the onus on the Defense to decide on how to defend, against a draw, a screen, or a quick slant...the other thing it would do is open up 2nd down quite a bit...in the same scenario, if it's 2nd and 8, you could take a long shot down the field and still have 2 attempts to get 8 yards, or go back to back long attempts, get the safeties and DBs winded (if the protection holds up), and then still have 2 attempts at getting the 1st down...this helps in a hurry up Offense, two long attempts, and then hurry back to the line and down a stretch run to get the LBs and DBs moving again and still have another 4th down to make up whatever yardage you didn't gain...and yes, I know, the what "ifs" about giving up field position, but except in some rare cases, how field do you truly gain by punting? I know there's much room for debate, I just think in today's Offense friendly NFL, you gain more than you lose over the course of a game and season.

#13 mannc

mannc

    RFA

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 1,089 posts

Posted 15 November 2013 - 09:01 AM

View PostDibs, on 15 November 2013 - 08:12 AM, said:



I agree.  The onside kicks would definitely be different in the NFL now.  I don't know the stat but there seems to be a huge increase in touchbacks this season......so his average start line of the 33 yard line(from the video) giving up only 14 yards would be changed to close to 27 yards given up in the NFL.  Most likely the math wouldn't hold for such a large field position advantage.
There is a huge difference in recovery rates for surprise onside kicks and desperation onside kicks, when everyone knows it's coming.  I think surprise onside kicks are recovered more than  50 percent if the time, while expected ones are around 25 percent or less.  I love the no punt philosophy.  I think the numbers are different for the NFL than in high school, though.  Seldom punting is probably a better idea on Sundays.

#14 C.Biscuit97

C.Biscuit97

    Ladies' Man

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,934 posts

Posted 15 November 2013 - 09:04 AM

It's an interesting idea in concept but this isn't high school.  And the second you didn't punt and got killed by 30+ points, people would be running the coach out of town.

Obviously score and time dictate things, but once I cross the opponent's 40 yard line, I won't punt.  I also won't punt inside the 5 yard line.  If you have the mindset that you are going for it on 4th in those situations, it opens up your playbook.

#15 Joe Miner

Joe Miner

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,741 posts

Posted 15 November 2013 - 09:07 AM

I would suggest that part of the reason that the statistics for this look good is because there are so few attempts at 4th down conversions or onsides kicks.

If these things were commonplace the success rate would likely go way down.

#16 jumbalaya

jumbalaya

    RFA

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 1,474 posts

Posted 15 November 2013 - 09:14 AM

View PostiEat_Phins, on 14 November 2013 - 06:29 PM, said:

I've heard of the "never punt" philosophy being used in high school before. In the NFL I think it is a little dramatic, but Marrone sure could grow some balls after opting to punt last game when we were down in the 4th and in Pitt territory.
There was a game early last year when Chan failed to go for it on 4th down deep in someone's territory.  It appeared that he quit on the team.  Same thing for Marrone, when your coach quits trying to win the team quits trying to win.  We are in for an ugly finish to this abysmal season.

#17 dave mcbride

dave mcbride

    All Pro

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 8,677 posts

Posted 15 November 2013 - 10:13 AM

I definitely think that if you're at your 50 or beyond, you should almost never punt if you're facing less than 4th and 5. Punting from within the opponent's 30 with less than 10 yards to go is always stupid. Yet numerous Bills coaches have done it over the years, including last week.

My basic view: anything that takes the kicker off the field is good. I think they should do away with XPs altogether and simply have the current 2 PT conversion be an extra point. There is no reason to do an extra point given that it has 99.6 percent success rate.

View PostKD in CT, on 15 November 2013 - 08:57 AM, said:

Agreed.  Obviously you want to punt on 4th and long from your own end of the field, but the current NFL 'punt first' mentality is absurd.  Punting from the 35?  Punting on 4th and 1?  That's nothing but coaches managing the risk of negative press.
I agree 100 percent. It's coaching scared.

#18 C.Biscuit97

C.Biscuit97

    Ladies' Man

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,934 posts

Posted 15 November 2013 - 10:19 AM

View Postdave mcbride, on 15 November 2013 - 10:13 AM, said:

I definitely think that if you're at your 50 or beyond, you should almost never punt if you're facing less than 4th and 5. Punting from within the opponent's 30 with less than 10 yards to go is always stupid. Yet numerous Bills coaches have done it over the years, including last week.

My basic view: anything that takes the kicker off the field is good. I think they should do away with XPs altogether and simply have the current 2 PT conversion be an extra point. There is no reason to do an extra point given that it has 99.6 percent success rate.


I agree 100 percent. It's coaching scared.

If it's between the 40 and 50, you should punt.  The chance to make an opponent start inside their 10 is a huge win if you beleive in your defense.  Anything inside the 40, obviously if it is reasonable distance and the score, should be almost 100% going for it on 4th.  You also need to consider the matchup.  You don't beat Manning and Brees by field goals and punting.  But you can beat the Jets that way.

#19 PromoTheRobot

PromoTheRobot

    TBD's franchise poster

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 22,363 posts

Posted 15 November 2013 - 10:23 AM

That's high school. What are the analytics in the NFL?

#20 mannc

mannc

    RFA

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 1,089 posts

Posted 15 November 2013 - 11:07 AM

View PostC.Biscuit97, on 15 November 2013 - 10:19 AM, said:

If it's between the 40 and 50, you should punt.  The chance to make an opponent start inside their 10 is a huge win if you beleive in your defense.
  Really?  Even on 4th and 1?  What if your punter boots it into the end zone?  Then you have surrendered possession in order to move your opponent back a full 20 yards.  Do you know what the percentage of successful 4 and 1 or 4th and 2 conversions is from that part of the field?