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12/1 Bottom Line: Who we want to win this weekend


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#1 OCinBuffalo

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Posted 28 November 2013 - 07:36 AM

Somebody said they wanted "the bottom line" each week on who to root for. So, with nothing else to do this morning, here it is for today/this weekend. If you want details/debate go to the "playoff scenario" thread. This is the "Bottom Line" thread. That's because: it's the Bottom Line on this, period. :lol: (Home team is listed first):


Indianapolis vs Tennessee

San Diego vs Cincinnati

Baltimore vs Pittsburgh

Houston vs New England

Cleveland vs Jacksonville

Dallas vs Oakland

NY Jets vs Miami

(Jets win subtracts .1% from our chances. Miami win does nothing. So, we've "got that going for us". Dalai Lama. Bills Fan? :lol:)


Extra Stuff:
If you want to know how I know this, you can do it yourself, just go here: http://www.sportsclu...st/Buffalo.html

No, this is not the "scenario site". This is the statistical projection of what each team winning means for the Bills, based on a whole lot of math. Math explanation doesn't belong here either, as it is not Bottom Line.

I will write a more in-depth post in the playoff thread if poster's want to know more.....

and yes, I am aware that the Bills need to win out. However, I have constructed a "lose to the Pats and still get in" scenario....which is not for here either.

Edited by OCinBuffalo, 28 November 2013 - 07:40 AM.


#2 Jukester

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Posted 28 November 2013 - 07:39 AM

This is great.  Thanks for doing the work.

#3 OCinBuffalo

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Posted 28 November 2013 - 07:47 AM

I assure you, all I've done is roll my mouse over some "spans", and then, cut and paste, followed by using the "bold" feature of this site.

If that qualifies as "work"? You're welcome. :D

The real work has been done by the guy at my link, and some programmers, and whatever statistical software they use.

I will take credit for knowing about the site at my link, and knowing that the methodology used there is up to standard.

#4 KikO M G

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Posted 28 November 2013 - 07:53 AM

I think 4 of these 7 are likely.  1 is possible.  2 are impossible.

#5 ganesh

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Posted 28 November 2013 - 07:58 AM

View PostKikO M G, on 28 November 2013 - 07:53 AM, said:

I think 4 of these 7 are likely.  1 is possible.  2 are impossible.
I curious to know which are the two impossible....I assume NE losing to Houston is one...the other ?

#6 kdiggz

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Posted 28 November 2013 - 08:04 AM

After hours of research and advanced statistical analysis utilizing numerous scenario engines, I've concluded that we should root for Buffalo vs Atlanta

#7 djsabres

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Posted 28 November 2013 - 08:26 AM

I would think even though the math says so and it's painful, the Bill would want NE to win to put them in the best position to rest players week 17. Unless the loose the next 5 ( that would be awesome) a loss to Huston would only make the last game more important to them. With that said maybe it should matter how much they want it, the Bills would need to be able to beat them either way.

Edited by djsabres, 28 November 2013 - 08:27 AM.


#8 kdiggz

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Posted 28 November 2013 - 08:35 AM

View Postdjsabres, on 28 November 2013 - 08:26 AM, said:

I would think even though the math says so and it's painful, the Bill would want NE to win to put them in the best position to rest players week 17. Unless the loose the next 5 ( that would be awesome) a loss to Huston would only make the last game more important to them. With that said maybe it should matter how much they want it, the Bills would need to be able to beat them either way.
Agreed. I think we want NE to win out and clinch home field for the playoffs so that they have nothing to play for in week 17

#9 Whitewalker Merriman

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Posted 28 November 2013 - 08:40 AM

The game I'm worried about is Baltimore vs. Pitt. Pitt would have to lose two, preferably three of their remaining games if the Bills want to pull ahead (assuming 8-8 as the playoff minimum) and after this they play Cleveland, the struggling Packers, and the Dolphins. All of those seem like very winnable games.

View Postkdiggz, on 28 November 2013 - 08:35 AM, said:

Agreed. I think we want NE to win out and clinch home field for the playoffs so that they have nothing to play for in week 17

The Hoodie would still want to run up the score...

#10 BillsFan-4-Ever

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Posted 28 November 2013 - 08:49 AM

View PostOCinBuffalo, on 28 November 2013 - 07:36 AM, said:

Indianapolis vs Tennessee
San Diego vs Cincinnati
Baltimore vs Pittsburgh
Houston vs New England
Cleveland vs Jacksonville
Dallas vs Oakland
NY Jets vs Miami
thats what will help the Bills for sure
Jax in the cold?   not gonna happen.  Or have the Brownies fallen that much?
Same for Miama.  it is December after all,   can Gino have 3 horrid weeks in a row?


View Postkdiggz, on 28 November 2013 - 08:35 AM, said:

Agreed. I think we want NE to win out and clinch home field for the playoffs so that they have nothing to play for in week 17

and NO I still do not want that whining crying poor sport cinderfella brady winning games.

IF everything falls in place the Bills could take the division and be 2 or 3 seeds above NE.

so I say NEVER NEVER NEVER

I'd LOVE to see the Putrids fall in a trap game.

Edited by BillsFan-4-Ever, 28 November 2013 - 08:50 AM.


#11 plenzmd1

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Posted 28 November 2013 - 09:00 AM

Just so you have a rooting interest(in case no money on the line)


I think we can add in we want Green Bay to win today..keeps them in the race and Pittsburgh plays them in a couple of weeks. I dont want any reason for Rodgers to be sitting in that game

Edited by plenzmd1, 28 November 2013 - 09:00 AM.


#12 BuffaloWings

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Posted 28 November 2013 - 09:05 AM

View Postplenzmd1, on 28 November 2013 - 09:00 AM, said:

I think we can add in we want Green Bay to win today..keeps them in the race and Pittsburgh plays them in a couple of weeks. I dont want any reason for Rodgers to be sitting in that game

Rodgers is just about ready now. He probably even would have played this week if their game was on Sunday. I think he'll be playing against Pittsburgh, considering that division is up for grabs at the moment.

#13 mrags

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Posted 28 November 2013 - 09:14 AM

Great work OP. Mike Schoop has been talking about ESPNs playoff calculator all week. He's actually got us in, in a scenario where we go 8-8. The way he did it was projecting all favorites (based in the CBS Power Rankings) with the exception of (I think) 3 games for the rest of the season (which weren't too much of a long shot).

Until were mathematically out of it, in going to have hope that were in.

#14 SageAgainstTheMachine

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Posted 28 November 2013 - 09:21 AM

I want the Jets to beat the Dolphins.  Based on how Geno has played, the Jets have a much poorer chance of reaching 9-7 even if they win.

#15 JR in Pittsburgh

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Posted 28 November 2013 - 09:24 AM

View Postganesh, on 28 November 2013 - 07:58 AM, said:


I curious to know which are the two impossible....I assume NE losing to Houston is one...the other ?

Yeah, I would be curious to know too. Other than Houston, every other scenario is very possible.

#16 Just in Atlanta

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Posted 28 November 2013 - 09:37 AM

View PostSageAgainstTheMachine, on 28 November 2013 - 09:21 AM, said:

I want the Jets to beat the Dolphins.  Based on how Geno has played, the Jets have a much poorer chance of reaching 9-7 even if they win.
Was thinking the same thing.

#17 plenzmd1

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Posted 28 November 2013 - 09:52 AM

View PostSageAgainstTheMachine, on 28 November 2013 - 09:21 AM, said:

I want the Jets to beat the Dolphins.  Based on how Geno has played, the Jets have a much poorer chance of reaching 9-7 even if they win.

But i think we control more if Dolphins win cause we still have them on the schedule

#18 mrags

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Posted 28 November 2013 - 10:05 AM

View Postplenzmd1, on 28 November 2013 - 09:52 AM, said:



But i think we control more if Dolphins win cause we still have them on the schedule
this. I'd rather the Jets lose and be out of it all together. We still have the Phins left on the schedule and on top of it we've already beat them. Not to mention division wins might come into play.

#19 kdiggz

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Posted 28 November 2013 - 11:11 AM

I think to summarize, we want only the Dolphins and Ravens to be left at 6-6 after this weekend (we would have the head to head tie breaker vs both) and with us tied at 5-7 with a bunch of teams. That would put us right back in the mix

Edited by kdiggz, 28 November 2013 - 11:12 AM.


#20 JR in Pittsburgh

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Posted 28 November 2013 - 12:36 PM

View PostSageAgainstTheMachine, on 28 November 2013 - 09:21 AM, said:

I want the Jets to beat the Dolphins.  Based on how Geno has played, the Jets have a much poorer chance of reaching 9-7 even if they win.

I think we want to see the jets lose at least one more division game. If that happens, we would have the tie break on them.