Jump to content


For runthedamnball


  • Please log in to reply
17 replies to this topic

#1 dave mcbride

dave mcbride

    All Pro

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,244 posts

Posted 05 December 2013 - 10:04 PM

The stats near the end are key. ;)

http://www.wgr550.co...tentId=14307112

Edited by dave mcbride, 05 December 2013 - 10:04 PM.


#2 RuntheDamnBall

RuntheDamnBall

    GO BILLS

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 11,175 posts

Posted 05 December 2013 - 11:01 PM

View Postdave mcbride, on 05 December 2013 - 10:04 PM, said:

The stats near the end are key. ;)

http://www.wgr550.co...tentId=14307112
Well, I never. ;)

FWIW, I think the Bills have run enough, maybe more than they should, in today's NFL.  The ol' moniker is a reference to Kevin Gilbride's offense, which seemed to put everything on Drew Bledsoe's shoulders even if the situation demanded something different.

But yes, running and tough guys and also fat guys.  Football.

#3 BADOLBEELZ

BADOLBEELZ

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,750 posts

Posted 05 December 2013 - 11:51 PM

View Postdave mcbride, on 05 December 2013 - 10:04 PM, said:

The stats near the end are key. ;)

http://www.wgr550.co...tentId=14307112

Time for the training wheels to be taken off of EJ.   An unfortunate scenario has presented itself......a season over with 4 games still remaining......the way to make the best of it is to see if EJ can throw the ball in AT LEAST a balanced attack.

#4 Captain Hindsight

Captain Hindsight

    All Pro

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,894 posts

Posted 06 December 2013 - 10:29 AM

View PostBADOLBEELZ, on 05 December 2013 - 11:51 PM, said:

Time for the training wheels to be taken off of EJ.   An unfortunate scenario has presented itself......a season over with 4 games still remaining......the way to make the best of it is to see if EJ can throw the ball in AT LEAST a balanced attack.
Or do what works for your offense

Why would you change your offense when you are rushing for 150 yards a week?  Most teams would kill for that production

Also EJ the last two weeks. 63% completion percentage 455 yards and 3 TDs 0 INTs.

Ej is doing just fine

#5 BringBackFergy

BringBackFergy

    Eternally Optimistic Some of the Time

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,911 posts

Posted 06 December 2013 - 10:31 AM

View PostCaptain Hindsight, on 06 December 2013 - 10:29 AM, said:

Or do what works for your offense

Why would you change your offense when you are rushing for 150 yards a week?  Most teams would kill for that production

Also EJ the last two weeks. 63% completion percentage 455 yards and 3 TDs 0 INTs.

Ej is doing just fine
This

#6 FeartheLosing

FeartheLosing

    Best Bills DC ever!

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 8,263 posts

Posted 06 December 2013 - 11:32 AM

The Bills are running it more, and enjoying it less...


The thing is, I kinda already knew that the Bills were getting more production out of the run game last year under Gailey just due to the shotgun, 4 WR spread formation. Like Gailey stated, when you spread them out with 4 WR's you cause a miss-match somewhere.

Either with a LB on a WR which is a crazy-awesome miss-match or it makes the defense go into a constant nickle-dime coverage package which means a DB on a RB usually singled up because of the spread. One missed tackle and its off to the races.

Whereas Hackett likes to keep extra blockers in to max protect the rookie QB. This year the brain trust wants to run the constant hurry up to keep the opposing team from making substitutions on the line for various reasons. But mostly because they don't want these rookie QB's being forced to read constantly changing defensive fronts and alignments.

Anyway, what is alarming to me is that this offense still has difficulty making a first down on 3rd and short by trying to run it in a power "elephant" offense. They had trouble under Gailey, and now the same trouble under Hackett. Although EJ has made some first downs by QB sneaking it a few times.

The teams that have given the bills the most problems have been able to shut down the run and forced the QB to throw, and currently being the 29th passing offense the Bills really need to be able to run. In week 11 the Bills owned the Jets @ Buffalo by passing thanks to EJ getting a hot hand even tho the Jets were able to dominate in stopping the Bills run game. That game was ALL EJ and Bills defense. The Jets only allowed  the Bills a 1.8 YPC running it, 38 rushes for 68 yards, and Spiller was particularly horrid with 13 rushes for 6 yards.

The Bills can't always count on EJ to play brilliantly and the Bills defense to dominate the opposing rookie QB. This last game QB Matt Ryan tore them up, while EJ didn't didn't play great, he played well enough to win. The Bills lost that game because of some bad luck, and bad play by two of their vet receivers.

Still, what sticks in my mind is, as much as the Bills run the ball they can't play keep away, and can't control the clock by running when they need to.

#7 dave mcbride

dave mcbride

    All Pro

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,244 posts

Posted 06 December 2013 - 11:59 AM

View PostCaptain Hindsight, on 06 December 2013 - 10:29 AM, said:

Or do what works for your offense

Why would you change your offense when you are rushing for 150 yards a week?  Most teams would kill for that production

Also EJ the last two weeks. 63% completion percentage 455 yards and 3 TDs 0 INTs.

Ej is doing just fine

Because despite being 4th in rushing yardage and #1 overall in turnover percentage (i.e., the fewest turnovers per drive), they're 20th in points. Running the ball well doesn't lead to points in today's NFL. Passing the ball well does.

#8 BADOLBEELZ

BADOLBEELZ

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,750 posts

Posted 06 December 2013 - 02:15 PM

View Postdave mcbride, on 06 December 2013 - 11:59 AM, said:

Because despite being 4th in rushing yardage and #1 overall in turnover percentage (i.e., the fewest turnovers per drive), they're 20th in points. Running the ball well doesn't lead to points in today's NFL. Passing the ball well does.

View PostCaptain Hindsight, on 06 December 2013 - 10:29 AM, said:

Or do what works for your offense

Why would you change your offense when you are rushing for 150 yards a week?  Most teams would kill for that production

Also EJ the last two weeks. 63% completion percentage 455 yards and 3 TDs 0 INTs.

Ej is doing just fine

dave just answered this question.  The question is why would you ask why.......when the answer is right in the original post?

It's a passing league.  You score points and win with the passing game.    The Bills don't score points......and they didn't win.

He's been given ample hand-holding to this point, it's time to see what EJ can do.

#9 metzelaars_lives

metzelaars_lives

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,854 posts

Posted 06 December 2013 - 02:31 PM

The Bills have reverted back to a problem that they had with Edwards and did NOT have with Fitzpatrick- they cannot complete passes to their wide receivers.  This is something that they are going to have to address.

#10 Astrobot

Astrobot

    TSW's Draft Droid

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 8,208 posts

Posted 06 December 2013 - 05:14 PM

Is the solution to get the best WR despite drafting two last year? Woods has had 2 good games (Game 2 and 4) and 8 average to below average performances thus far. Goodwin is ranked by PFF as our best receiver this year. I'm all for putting WR as the Bills' greatest need over at DraftTek, but Twitter fans have TE above WR as the top need on Offense, followed by OG.

#11 BlueFire

BlueFire

    OU Still Sucks!

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 12,282 posts

Posted 06 December 2013 - 05:20 PM

I don't think so.  There have been so many games this year where our WRs have been open and haven't gotten the pass, it's ridiculous.

#12 FeartheLosing

FeartheLosing

    Best Bills DC ever!

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 8,263 posts

Posted 06 December 2013 - 05:34 PM

View PostAstrobot, on 06 December 2013 - 05:14 PM, said:

Is the solution to get the best WR despite drafting two last year? Woods has had 2 good games (Game 2 and 4) and 8 average to below average performances thus far. Goodwin is ranked by PFF as our best receiver this year. I'm all for putting WR as the Bills' greatest need over at DraftTek, but Twitter fans have TE above WR as the top need on Offense, followed by OG.
TE might have already been addressed with the signing of ex Chief TE Tony Moeaki. So if this kid can stay healthy that position might not be that big of need for 2014. It was very smart to bring him now to see how he does in the remaining games.

It was difficult to evaluate the QB / WR corps considering all the injuries this season, Woods, Goodwin, Johnson all missing a bunch of games. Stevie Johnson started the year off with a hamstring problem, then a bad back, then a groin injury. So it has indeed been tough for the QB to get in sync with his receivers this season.

I really hate to say it simply because this team has drafted so many defensive players the last 14 seasons, and they haven't even sniffed the playoffs by going with that philosophy . But this defense needs help to stop the run as a priority, so either a top FA OLB or draft someone like Khalil Mack. Then an OG / WR in any order, and a RT.  Either way this FO goes this next year should be very telling as to "IF" this team will see the playoffs under this regime.

#13 3rdand12

3rdand12

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,963 posts

Posted 06 December 2013 - 06:47 PM

View Postmetzelaars_lives, on 06 December 2013 - 02:31 PM, said:

The Bills have reverted back to a problem that they had with Edwards and did NOT have with Fitzpatrick- they cannot complete passes to their wide receivers.  This is something that they are going to have to address.
I agree. maybe not for the same reasons though.
Manuel is not hitting the open receivers. That part is simple enough .
The why is a bit more in depth i would guess

#14 Captain Hindsight

Captain Hindsight

    All Pro

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,894 posts

Posted 07 December 2013 - 05:37 PM

View PostBADOLBEELZ, on 06 December 2013 - 02:15 PM, said:

dave just answered this question.  The question is why would you ask why.......when the answer is right in the original post?

It's a passing league.  You score points and win with the passing game. The Bills don't score points......and they didn't win.

He's been given ample hand-holding to this point, it's time to see what EJ can do.
We scored 37 and 31 points the last two weeks. To start the season we had scored 20 or more points in every game until Jeff Freaking Tuel had to start a game.

I really just don't understand the EJ sucks crowd. I think he is playing a lot better than many expected him to. But he hasn't won an MVP yet so he sucks. Unreal

#15 section122

section122

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,899 posts

Posted 07 December 2013 - 10:24 PM

View PostCaptain Hindsight, on 07 December 2013 - 05:37 PM, said:

We scored 37 and 31 points the last two weeks. To start the season we had scored 20 or more points in every game until Jeff Freaking Tuel had to start a game.

I really just don't understand the EJ sucks crowd. I think he is playing a lot better than many expected him to. But he hasn't won an MVP yet so he sucks. Unreal
You didn't get the memo that badol is the smartest man ever? /s

Unfortunately ej is paying the price for fans frustration.  He didn't come in and take the Bills to the Super Bowl this year so he sucks.  Doesn't matter that he has played well.  Doesn't matter that he has had the Bills competitive in every game he has started with the exception of his first game back against the steelers.  The Bills drafted him so he must suck.

#16 dave mcbride

dave mcbride

    All Pro

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,244 posts

Posted 08 December 2013 - 11:23 AM

This conversation has gone off the rails. No one said Manuel sucks. The point is that running the ball doesn't lead to enough points. You have to pass it.

#17 Captain Hindsight

Captain Hindsight

    All Pro

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 10,894 posts

Posted 08 December 2013 - 12:39 PM

View Postdave mcbride, on 08 December 2013 - 11:23 AM, said:

This conversation has gone off the rails. No one said Manuel sucks. The point is that running the ball doesn't lead to enough points. You have to pass it.
You have to move the ball. If you get 250 yards rushing and 100 yards passing does it really matter?

350 yards is still 350 yards. The most important thing is execution. The passing game will come and IMO it already has

#18 l< j

l< j

    RFA

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 1,440 posts

Posted 08 December 2013 - 12:55 PM

I'm somewhat skeptical of the whole analytics thing, but this bit from the OP's link ring true for me in today's league:

Quote

Football Reference uses a statistic called “Expected Points Added” that estimates how many points a that a club should expect to earn due to the success or failure of the run game. The highest in the NFL is Minnesota with 25.75 points. The Expected Points Added figures in the passing game are much higher – the Broncos topping the league with 196.22 EPA. Four teams are over 100.

In other words, you'd have to be really, really good at rushing to be able to lean on it as much as the Bills do and still be a top offense in the league.

Passing adds a lot more to your offense in terms of points scored than running can hope to add in today's game. A balanced offense in 2013 is not the same thing as it was even a few years ago.

kj